New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 1 Survey of New Hanover County Voters February...

New Hanover CountyCapitol Communications Restricted

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Survey of New HanoverCounty Voters

February 2, 2010


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New Hanover County Survey 2/10/10

Survey of 400 registered voters was conducted by Capitol Communications over two nights beginning February 1, 2010.

The 43 question survey was conducted by phone and has a margin of error of ± 4.90 in 95 out of 100 cases.


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Voter Intensity

We tested on voter intensity for Primary and General Elections. The sample was pulled from active voters who had participated in at least one of the last two statewide election cycles and newly registered voters since November 2010.

83% said they were likely to vote in General elections and 48.8% were likely to vote in a Primary election.


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Voter Intensity

On the Primary ballot, voters who favored the sales tax were 21.3% likely voters while voters against the sales tax were 42.0% likely voters.

Undecided voters were 37.2% likely voters. Those favorable to Cape Fear Council for

Progressiveness – 38.7% likely voters. Those favorable to Citizens for Tax Fairness

– 50.9% likely voters.


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Political Structure and Ideological Profile of New Hanover County

Currently, New Hanover voters describe themselves as Conservative to Moderate in their political beliefs.

48.5% of the voters described themselves as Conservatives compared to 29.8% as Moderates and 14.8% as Liberals.

32.3% of the voters said they vote Republican, 26.8% said they vote Democratic and 37.3% said they split their ticket on election day.


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Single Most Important Issue Facing New Hanover Today

39.8% Economy/Jobs 8.3% Taxes 7.8% Schools/Education/Funding 6.3% Roads/Traffic/Bridges 3.8% Budget/Deficit/Government Spending 1.5% Crime 1.3% Annexation 1.0% Economic Development


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Right Direction/Wrong Direction

39.50

50.20

33.30

52.60

37.80

27.10

42.80

41.9

34.8

34.8

28.9

45.4

50.8

38.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Undecided

Against Tax

For Tax

Conservatives

Moderates

Liberals

N=400

Wrong Direction Right Direction


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Issues New Hanover County Voters are Generally Most Concerned About

Economic Issues58.5%

Moral Issues5.3%

Social Issues19.8%

Urban Issues6.0%

Foreign Affairs7.3%


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Thinking about your county taxes, do you think the county taxes you pay are too high,

too low or just about right?

51.8% said too high. 2.6% said too low. 42.3% said about right. 3.3% Don’t Know/Refused. 63.5% of those opposed to the sales tax

referendum said too high.


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If you were a county commissioner, what would be your top priority?

27.8% – Improve Schools 24.8% – Control Spending 15.5% – Provide economic incentives 14.5% – Lower Taxes 7.3%– Improve County Services to Seniors 6.3% – Protect the environment .8% – Improve Parks 3.3% – Don’t know/refused


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This May, voters will be asked to approve a ¼% sales tax, which is about 5 million dollars in new taxes, in order to avoid future property tax increases. Would you vote for or against

the new sales tax?

37.5

51.8

10.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

For Sales Tax Oppose SalesTax Undecided

%


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the new sales tax?

Voters who always vote in Primary Elections were 39.5% for and 49.7% would vote against sales tax.

Likely November voters were 37.8% for and 51.5% against the sales tax.

65+ voters were 36.9% for 52.2% against.


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the new sales tax?

Self-described Liberals were 50.8% for and 40.7% against the sales tax.

Self-described Moderates were 42.0% for and 47.9% against the sales tax.

Self-described Conservatives were 32.0% for and 57.2% against the sales tax.

Women were 36.8% in favor and 50.0% opposed compared to Men who were 38.3% in favor and 53.7% opposed.


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We Then Asked Those Who were Opposed (N=207) a Series of Questions on How the

Sales Tax Revenue Would be Used

Keep Libraries Open – Now Favor 30% (N=62) – Total Ballot in Favor 53%.

Tourists will help Pay – Now Favor 31.4% (N=65) – Total Ballot in Favor 54%.

Reduce Property Taxes 65+ - Now Favor 37.7% (N=78) – Total Ballot in Favor 57%.

No Food Tax – Now Favor 31.9% (N=66) Total Ballot in Favor 54%.


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Used for Economic Incentives – Now Favor 27.5% (N=57) – Total Ballot in Favor 52%.

Improve Road – Now Favor 26.6% (N=57) Total Ballot in Favor 51%.

Reduce Cuts to Schools – Now Favor 31.4% (N=65) – Total Ballot in Favor 54%.

We Then Asked Those Who were Opposed (N=207) a Series of Questions on How the

Sales Tax Revenue Would be Used


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Reduce Property Tax on 65+ Moved the Most Voters Who were Against the Sales Tax

Voters age 65+ (N=157) were 36.9% for and 52.2% against the sales tax on the initial ballot test question.

When informed of the lowering of property taxes, of those opposed (N=82), 36.6% (N=30) would now favor the sales tax referendum.

Total ballot test with this group moved from 36.9% opposed to now 56% in favor or N=88.


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Where do you get your political information? (N=400)

50.8% Television 23.3% Newspapers 11.5% Internet 6.0% Radio 3.5% Magazines 2.0% Family and Friends 1.5% Other


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Where do you get your political information? (N=400)

Voters <40 said 56.3% Television, 31.3% Internet and 0% for Newspapers and Radio.

Voters>40 said 46.2% Television, 28.7% Newspapers, 7.6% Internet, 6.4% Radio.

High School Grads said 66.7% Television, 18.8% Newspapers and 2.9% Internet.

College Grads said 50.7% Television, 22.2% Newspapers and 13.9% Internet.


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Conclusion of Sales Tax Ballot Issue

Passage of the Sales Tax is a steep hill to climb.

Voters who are opposed to the tax are clearly more likely to turnout and vote than those voters who favor the tax.

The case has to be made that tough times require tough choices. If the issue becomes one about taxes and more government, then the referendum will fail.


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The campaign has to define what happens if the sales tax fails and the commissioners must be prepared to follow through if it does fail.

The current mood of voters is more about the national mood than local politics. As individuals, the commissioners are well liked. The low job approval is more of a reflection of attitudes towards government in general.


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In addition to stating your case to the voters, you will have to change the opinion of some voters in order to win.

This has to be done with facts and you clearly have to state what happens without the new revenue. Your case will be stronger by showing how people are impacted, not government.


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Conclusion of Sale Tax Ballot Issue

In addition to informing the voters of the issue, there has to be a strong ground game to turnout those voters who favor the sales tax.

Since voter intensity is working against the issue, you have to aggressively identify your supporters and then follow up with them and make sure they vote.


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Conclusion of Sale Tax Ballot Issue

Be prepared for a push back on the issue. Others will argue that the tax is not needed. You have to be aggressive in countering their arguments. Do not let their arguments cement public opinion against you.

If your plans can include a homestead exemption for seniors, then you will only help your case. They are the most likely voting group of all voters.

New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 1 Survey of New Hanover County Voters February...

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