New gTLD Statistics & Business Implications - TLDWatch · PDF fileWhat We Learned From 2014...

New gTLD Statistics & Business Implications

CHRISTA TAYLOR BERRY COBB

Historical Significance of the Journal Entry

Overview What We Learned From 2014 • 2014 Legacy & New gTLD statistics • Most Successful gTLDs New gTLD Tiers • Volumes & Values new gTLDs can expect • Correlation between Prices, Volumes, etc. • Impact on registry financials • Business models considerations – additional value adds/value proposition over registrations New gTLD Projections for 2015/2016 • Forecasts & Predictions New gTLD ‘Drafting’ Plan • Impact on the industry • Tier 3 & Tier 4 Today / Tomorrow

What We Learned In 2014

2014 - Legacy gTLD Stats .com Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

Jan - 111,843,404 Dec - 115,312,494

+3.1%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1/1/

2014

1/26

/201

42/

20/2

014

3/17

/201

44/

11/2

014

5/6/

2014

5/31

/201

46/

25/2

014

7/20

/201

48/

14/2

014

9/8/

2014

10/3

/201

410

/28/

2014

11/2

2/20

1412

/17/

2014

biz info mobi net org

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1/1/

2014

1/24

/201

42/

16/2

014

3/11

/201

44/

3/20

144/

26/2

014

5/19

/201

46/

11/2

014

7/4/

2014

7/27

/201

48/

19/2

014

9/11

/201

410

/4/2

014

10/2

7/20

1411

/19/

2014

12/1

2/20

14

asia name pro tel xxx

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1/1/

2014

1/24

/201

42/

16/2

014

3/11

/201

44/

3/20

144/

26/2

014

5/19

/201

46/

11/2

014

7/4/

2014

7/27

/201

48/

19/2

014

9/11

/201

410

/4/2

014

10/2

7/20

1411

/19/

2014

12/1

2/20

14

aero coop jobs

museum name post

pro travel

2014 - New gTLD Stats

46 - Brand 40 - Generic 06 - Geo

No 2014 GA Launch Data:

4

30

39

50

41

37

56

37

28 26

44

21

14 14

7

1

7

26 29

35

26

31 31 31

40

19 17 18

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013 2014

Sum of Delegation Sum of GA Sum of Registrations

2014 gTLD Program in Review Application View

544

61 16 75

278

1

346

2 6 16

19

39

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will NotProceed

Withdrawn

Brand Generic Geographic

Unique String View

*Applied = yet to be settled **471 Delegated as 4 Jan per ICANN ***162 applications in contention

*87 unique strings in Contention (includes .corp, .home, .mail)

549

61 18 84

460

1

346

2 45

298

19

39

1 1

6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Applied Criteria Fail Delegated Not Approved Will NotProceed

Withdrawn

Brand Generic Geographic

Most successful New gTLDs

•Too early to tell •We’re not picking favorites •Execution is key

• Quantity of Registrations

• Total Revenue / Profit

• Use

• Alexa Ranking

• SEO results

• Renewal Rates

Primary Criteria:

New gTLD Tiers

The Caveats • .XYZ, .BERLIN, .OVH have free registrations • ‘Free’ registrations can be a viable business plan but as we have no viable, reliable renewal statistics

they have been excluded from any calculations • Expectation that renewal rates from free registrations will vary be from regular paid registrations • Many registries have registered their own names thereby inflating the number of true, arms-length

third-party registrations • Legitimate reasons for registries to do this include increasing the ability for potential registrants to find

and purchase premium names • TLDs that have recently launched have been excluded to eliminate the landrush upswing

gTLD Results based on Tiers • The 80/20 rule doesn’t quite apply. • As there are significant insight to be gained by

looking at the new gTLDs in four tiers. • 2014 ended with 472 delegated new gTLDs • TLDs in General Availability at the end of December

is 271 with an average registration volume of 9,414 • Average daily registration volume of 45

33% 34% 35% 36% 37%

Revenues

Volume

80/20 Rule

TLDs by Volume

Average/Median Volume 2014 by Quartile: 1: 29.2k / 18.3k

2: 6.8k / 6.7k 3: 3k / 3k

4: 1.2k / $1.2k

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

club

guru link

xn--5

5qx5

dco

mpa

nyxn

--io0

a7i

web

site

baye

rndi

rect

ory

sexy

galle

ryla

ndsy

stem

sed

ucat

ion

paris

esta

tevo

ting

med

iaw

ien

xn--8

0adx

hks

wik

ici

tyla

wye

rru

hrbu

zzka

ufen

imm

obili

en gift

cool

bout

ique

pink

inst

itute

atto

rney

care

com

mun

ityre

pair

cam

era

tool

spl

umbi

ngca

mp

colo

gne

foun

datio

npi

ctur

esw

atch

diam

onds

nago

yaco

des

build ca

bcl

inic

futb

ol ink

moe ba

rgr

atis

part

ners

prod

uctio

nsxn

--80a

sehd

bvi

sion

datin

gco

ndos

cate

ring

supp

lym

arke

ttie

nda

finan

ce fish

xn--n

gbc5

azd

brus

sels

insu

re soy

finan

cial fail

gal

guita

rsfu

rnitu

relu

xury

asso

ciat

esm

ortg

age

dem

ocra

tco

okin

gde

ntist

fishi

ng

Average Daily Volume

TLDs in Terms of Revenues

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

xn--s

es55

4gxn

--55q

x5d

nyc

xn--f

iq22

8c5h

scl

ubto

day

vega

slin

kte

chno

logy

dire

ctor

yac

adem

yse

xyru

hrbu

zzph

oto

care

ers

galle

ryin

tern

atio

nal

mar

ketin

gho

ldin

gsed

ucat

ion

holid

ayco

nsul

ting

audi

obu

ildki

wi

chur

chim

mob

ilien

vent

ures

diam

onds

bout

ique

bike

shoe

spl

umbi

ngre

isedi

gita

lun

ofa

rmxn

--80a

sehd

beq

uipm

ent

limo

capi

tal

tool

sta

xca

mp

loan

sso

lar

soci

alpr

ess

finan

cew

atch

fitne

ssva

catio

nsbe

stdi

scou

ntfli

ghts

insu

re wtf

finan

cial

villa

ssu

rger

ypr

oduc

tions

pink

viaj

esxn

--80a

swg

danc

eje

tzt

bid

xn--q

9jyb

4cgr

atis

plac

eve

tm

oda

mor

tgag

ena

goya

indu

strie

sex

pose

dre

stde

ntist

guita

rsas

soci

ates

vodk

afis

hing

engi

neer

grip

eju

egos

Average Revenue per Day

Average/Median by Quartile: 1: $325.7 / $166.6

2: $80.4 / $75.4 3: $41.9 / $42.1 4: $16.6 / $18.5

Correlation between Price & Volume? TLD Price Volume Revenues @60% Daily Revenue rich $ 1,899.00 56 $ 63,806 $ 245 xn--3bst00m $ 789.00 133 $ 62,962 $ 2,518 xn--czru2d $ 325.00 7,442 $ 1,451,190 $ 7,220 luxury $ 279.99 1,277 $ 214,528 $ 822 versicherung $ 199.99 2,213 $ 265,547 $ 2,414 hiv $ 179.99 314 $ 33,910 $ 271 reise $ 99.99 1,236 $ 74,153 $ 511 creditcard $ 99.99 540 $ 32,397 $ 266 eus $ 99.00 2,541 $ 150,935 $ 4,312 gal $ 99.00 1,521 $ 90,347 $ 2,581 career $ 92.99 1,101 $ 61,429 $ 480 best $ 76.10 1,027 $ 46,893 $ 213 ceo $ 74.00 1,851 $ 82,184 $ 287 investments $ 69.99 1,666 $ 69,962 $ 514 loans $ 69.99 1,322 $ 55,516 $ 514

There is a weak negative relationship

-0.23

Pricing To date, the new gTLDs with the highest volumes and values have not improvised by being cheaper.

Quartiles Retail Price Median Price 1 $ 35.18 $ 19.99 2 $ 39.81 $ 19.99 3 $ 29.58 $ 19.99 4 $ 18.53 $ 19.99

Financial Implications: Tier 1 Today

$608 $1,533

$2,785

$4,043 $5,113

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Thou

sand

s

Tier 1: Today

Cumulative Revenues Cumulative Net Income Yearly Revenues Fixed cost Gross Margin

Volume: 43,235 Registry Price of: $21 Expenses of: $300,000 at a 60% renewal rate


$(77) $(58) $59 $178 $240

$(500)

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500


Thou

sand

s

Tier 2: Today


Volume: 11,518 Registry Price of: $24 Expenses of: $350,000 at a 60% renewal rate

New gTLD Projections for 2015/2016

2015 Registration Forecast - Simple

Based on 2014 Results

183402 399864

628950 868238

1354246 1763847

2116426 2450685

3028855 3343774

3656143

182175 216462 229086 239288

486008

409601

352579 334259

578170

314919 312369

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Total Reg Total per Month Linear (Total Reg)

2015 Registration Forecast - Advanced

y = 16310x - 7E+08

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Apr-

14

May

-14

Jun-

14

Jul-1

4

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct

-14

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Based on 2014 Results

Other Predictions

2015 • Expectation: Registries will advertise in mass once all portfolios

have launched their gTLDs • Renewal rates (optimistic vs realistic) • Pricing (up or down) • gTLDs will start to swap hands • Industry Related Stocks (up or down)

2016 • brands will start to promote the use of their gTLDs - the critical

path - when brands start to use their TLDs in advertising is when the common registrant will start to catch on.

• No new round of gTLDs

New gTLD ‘Drafting’ Plan

Financial Implications • Tier 3 and Tier 4 TLDs need to focus efforts on grass roots marketing efforts to increase registrations

with minimal expense while waiting for the grass to catch fire

• Once large brands and portfolio companies marketing begins to take hold, it will be important to draft on these large campaigns that drive registrations

• Reducing prices does not result in an increase in registrations as show earlier


$(131) $(220) $(265) $(311) $(381)

$(600)

$(400)

$(200)

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000


Thou

sand

s

Tier 3: Today


Volume: 6,795 Registry Price of: $17.75 Expenses of: $250,000 at a 60% renewal rate

Financial Implications: Tier 3 Tomorrow

$(64) $(81) $(49) $(15) $(10)

$(200)

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200


Thou

sand

s Tier 3: Tomorrow


To Breakeven, volume: 8,803 Registry Price of: $21.09 Expenses of: $200,000 at a 60% renewal rate


$(112) $(210) $(294)

$(378) $(470)

$(600)

$(500)

$(400)

$(300)

$(200)

$(100)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400


Thou

sand

s

Tier 4: Today


Volume: 3,524 Registry Price of: $18.53 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate

Financial Implications: Tier 4 Tomorrow

$(49) $(63) $(40) $(17) $(14)

$(200)

$(100)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800


Thou

sand

s

Tier 4: Tomorrow


To Breakeven, volume: 17,795 Registry Price of: $13.00 Expenses of: $150,000 at a 60% renewal rate

We’re off…

New gTLD Statistics & Business Implications - TLDWatch · PDF fileWhat We Learned From 2014...

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