New England Regional Economic Update

Regional Economic Update

Robert K. TriestVice President and Director,

New England Public Policy CenterFederal Reserve Bank of Boston

[email protected]

Lincoln Institute of Land PolicyApril 8, 2016

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do notnecessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or

the Federal Reserve System.

Federal Reserve Districts

R. Triest Regional Economic Update, April 8, 2016 2/ 14

New England Public Policy Center - Boston Fed

http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/neppc/[4/6/2016 6:56:16 PM]

Research & Data

Conferences and Events

Data

Economists

National Economy and Monetary Policy

Papers and Publications

Recruiting

Regional Economy

Research Units

Can Subsidized Housing Help Address Homelessness in New England?by Robert Clifford and Osborne Jackson

Achieving Greater Fiscal Stability: Guidance for the New England States by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Bo Zhao

State Highway Funding in New England: The Road to Greater Fiscal Sustainabilityby Jennifer Weiner

Measuring Municipal Fiscal Disparities in Connecticutby Bo Zhao and Jennifer Weiner

More research

Research Focus

State and Local Fiscal Sustainability

Labor Market Supply and Demand in New England

Immigration

Local Aid Reform

Housing Issues

News, Events, and Opportunities

March 1, 2016New England Economic Update Presented to the New England Advisory Council

February 19, 2016How Large Should State Rainy Day Funds Be? The Case of Atlantic States Presented at the Fiscal Leaders Meeting

September 16, 2015Measuring Nonschool Municipal Fiscal Disparities in Connecticut Presented to Connecticut General Assembly's State Tax Panel

Q4 2015 New England Economic Indicators and New Indicators Interactive

Home :: Research & Data

New England Public Policy Center

The Center promotes better public policy in New England by conducting and disseminating objective, high-quality research and analysis of strategically identified regional economic and policy issues.

Features

Stay Connected

NEPPC LinksNEPPC Home

About NEPPC

NEPPC Research

NEPPC Events

Data Resources

Contact NEPPC

Home | Contact Us | Directions | Terms of Use & Privacy | Search | Site Map | Feedback

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston | (617) 973-3000

600 Atlantic Avenue | Boston, MA 02210-2204

Stay Connected: E-Mail Alert | RSS Feeds | Twitter | Podcasts

https://www.bostonfed.org/economic/

Establishment employment growth in New England andthe U.S.

.9.9

51

1.05

Pre

-rec

essi

on p

eak

= 1

2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

U.S. CT MA MENH RI VT

Seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics


Civilian Unemployment rate (U-3) in New England and theU.S.

.4.6

.81

1.2

1.4

Pre

-rec

essi

on p

eak

= 1

2000m1 2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date


Seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics


Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits

.51

1.5

22.

5Ja

n 20

05 =

1

2004m1 2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1date


12-month trailing moving averageSource: U.S. Dept. of Labor and Haver Analytics


U-6 unemployment rate

510

1520

2003q3 2006q3 2009q3 2012q3 2015q3date

U.S CT MA MENH RI VT

12-month trailing moving averageSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and Haver Analytics


New England and U.S. employment growth by supersector

Construction

Education and Health Services

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

Goverment

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Prof. and Business Services

Other Services

Trade, Transp., and Utilities

Seasonally adjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey and Haver Analytics

Industry employment growth, thousands of jobs

Feb '08-Feb '10 Feb '10-Feb '16


FHFA house price index

5010

015

020

025

019

95 =

100

1985q1 1990q1 1995q1 2000q1 2005q1 2010q1 2015q1date


Seasonally adjustedSource: Federal Housing Finance Agency and Haver Analytics


State general revenues

.8.9

11.

11.

2P

re-r

eces

sion

pea

k =

1

2005m1 2010m1 2015m1date

CT MA MENH RI VT

12-month moving averageSource: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Indicators


The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets 8times per year.

Janet Yellen

Eric Rosengren Esther George Daniel Tarullo Jerome Powell

Lael Brainard James Bullard Stanley Fischer William Dudley Loretta Mester

FOMC Alternate Members:

Charles Evans Michael Strine Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan Neel Kashkari


Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)Percentage Change in Real GDP

Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2016–18 and over the longer run

Change in real GDP

Percent

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun

Central tendency of projections

Range of projections

Median of projections

Actual

Unemployment rate

Percent

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun

PCE inflation

Percent

1

2

3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun

Note: Definitions of variables are in the general note to the projections table. The data for the actual values ofthe variables are annual.

Source:http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf


Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016)Unemployment Rate


Change in real GDP

Percent

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun




Actual

Unemployment rate

Percent

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun

PCE inflation

Percent

1

2

3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun




Summary of Economic Projections: (March 2016) PersonalConsumption Expenditure Inflation Rate


Change in real GDP

Percent

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun




Actual

Unemployment rate

Percent

4

5

6

7

8

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun

PCE inflation

Percent

1

2

3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longerrun




New England Regional Economic Update

Economy & Finance

Transcript of New England Regional Economic Update