New COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 9. 2. · New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of...
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling Update September 1, 2020
Transcript of New COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 9. 2. · New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of...
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateSeptember 1, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 36th highest number of cases per 100,000 population in
the United States
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.31.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
*Excludes cases among inmates in
state and federal corrections and
detention centers
5.7 5.7 5.2
15.7
4.4
6.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 23
5.3
3.3 4.1
15.0
6.1 6.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 30
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – September 1, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time
may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has remained at 1.0 since last week.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 1, 2020.
1.0
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.9 ↓
MetroR_effective 1.0 ↓
Southeast R_effective 0.9 =
SouthwestR_effective 1.0 ↑
NorthwestR_effective 1.1 =
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 1, 2020.
As of August 23, 2020
Region R-effective95% Confidence
Interval
State 1.0 [0.5, 1.7]
Metro 1.0 [0.0, 2.2]
Northeast 0.9 [0.0, 3.6]
Northwest 1.1 [0.0, 2.5]
Southeast 0.9 [0.0, 2.1]
Southwest 1.0 [0.0, 2.4]
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Southwest is the only region with a positive growth rate.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – September 1, 2020.
↑ Increasing counts
↓ Decreasing case
counts
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average
September 1, 2020Positive samples collected during this time may not yet
be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average
September 1, 2020
Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average
September 1, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during
this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average
September 1, 2020Positive samples collected during this
time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 9.1.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average
September 1, 2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Without Detention Centers)
Positive samples collected during
this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Travel and attendance at gatherings decreased last week, but may change with the new policies in the 8/28 Public Health Order
As of August 31, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The 18-34 and 35-64 year old age groups make up the highest percentage of cases each week.
As of August 31, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hispanic or Latino cases have steadily increased and made up ~60% of cases last week followed by White and American Indian or Alaska Native cases.
As of August 31, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of August 31, 2020
Hospitalizations have declined to <100 for the last 2 weeks.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalizations of patients 65 years and older may be on the rise, while the 18-34 and 35-64 year old groups appear to be declining.
As of August 31, 2020
Hospitalizations
may not yet be
reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalizations of Hispanic or Latinos each week continues to increase, while American Indian or Alaska Natives and Whites decrease.
As of August 31, 2020
Hospitalizations
may not yet be
reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
2
9
19
33
43
67 66
61
45 46
3533 32
2024 24
26
50 50
25 2521
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nu
mb
er
of
De
ath
s
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Reporting through 8/30/2020
Deaths may not
yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Since June, the percentage of deaths in congregate care facilities has been 20-30%
17%
49%
44%
23%
28%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
March April May June July August
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Percentage of COVID-19 Deaths in Congregate Care Facilities by Month of Death,
New Mexico
As of August 30, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The percentage of deaths in Hispanic or Latinos has increased from 17% in June to 33% in August. In contrast, American Indian or Alaska Native deaths have decreased during that same time period from 65% to 40%.
0%
51%
64% 65%
41% 40%
17%
0%
0%1%
0% 0%
0%
1%
0%0%
2% 1%
33%
15%
15%17%
35%33%
50%
32%
21% 17%22% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
March April May June July August
Pe
rce
nta
ge
AIAN Asian Black Hispanic White
As of August 30, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Minimal changes in case fatality rates across regions
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 8/2. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsSource: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 8.30.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.5%
2.2%
3.6%
1.1%
2.9%
4.3%
3.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Ca
se
Fa
tality
Ra
te (
age
-ad
juste
d)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the increase in daily case counts continues to decline.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of increase in July, hospitalizations are decreasing.
• Deaths: Deaths are declining.
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico residents has been stable, but this varies by region.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 1.4 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 9.1.2020
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.0
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 3.5
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.08% ICU 0.07%Vent Rate 58% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 3.5%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days
