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363
INDEX
9-11, events of, 10, 128–129, 129n,286, 361–362
ABAT (Army brilliant antitank), 291,294, 296
Abell, John B., 218nAccessibility, see Information
architecture, for defenseAcoustic torpedoes, 108Acquisition and technology
(A & T), 17Acquisition Policy Panel, 27n“Acquisition Reform: A Mandate for
Change” (Perry), 25Acquisition reforms, 16, 24–27ACTDs (advanced concept
technology demonstrations), 26Active defenses, against CBW
threats, 52–53, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
Active militarycharacteristics of, 159–165, 162n,
163nlooking to the future, 169–172ongoing revolutions of,
165–168, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for
Adaptive strategies, 250, see alsoUncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning
Adaptiveness in National Defense(Davis), 139n
Advanced concept technologydemonstrations (ACTDs), 26
Advisory boards, 17–18Aegis system, 80, 110, 121Aerospace manufacturing, 111Afghanistan, 42, 109, 170, 183, 286AFQT (Armed Forces Qualification
Test), 166, 187, 195n, 196, 197nAgent-based modeling, 274, 274n,
275Agora systems, 127Airborne Warning and Control
System (AWACS), 110, 121, 304Aircraft, 98, 104, 111, 121Air Force, U.S., 27, 113, 183, 184, 187,
192, 193, 218, 239, 241, 308, 318Air-launched munitions, 111Airport of debarkation (APOD), 291Air-to-air combat, 276Alibek, Kenneth, 35nAll-volunteer force, 31, 166,
186–187attracting quality personnel,
189–198, 190n, 194n, 195n,197n
compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–207, 200n
general human capital,200–201, 201n
initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,
202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n,
206nversatility and leadership,
187–189, 188n, 189nAl Qaeda, 42, 129, 183
364 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Analytical Methods for Studies andExperiments on “Transformingthe Force” (Davis), 258n
Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-SystemAnalysis, and Transformation(Davis), 142n, 255n
Anthrax threat, 35, 48n, 50nAnti-aircraft missiles, 108Anti-American sentiments, 129Antisensor operations,
121–122, see also Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning
APOD (airport of debarkation), 291Appliqué terminal, 85Aptitude, training, 166–168, 187Armed Forces Journal International,
36nArmed Forces Qualification Test
(AFQT), 166, 187, 195n, 196,197n
Armed Forces Vocational AptitudeBattery (ASVAB), 187, 195n
Arms control, 57–59Army brilliant antitank (ABAT), 291,
294, 296Army’s Tactical Missile System
(ATACM), 111, 291Army, U.S., 84, 113, 192, 193, 318The Art of Wargaming (Perla), 248nAsch, Beth J., 190nAspects of the Theory of Syntax
(Chomsky), 91nAspin, Les, 14, 346Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic
Nuclear Forces: The Limits ofCurrent Methods (Bennett), 36n
Assumption-Based Planning(Dewar), 135n
ASVAB (Armed Forces VocationalAptitude Battery), 187, 195n
Asymmetric threats, responding to,33–34, 33n
challenge and response cycles,45–46, 45n, 60
the Cold War to present,34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38n
conclusions, 66examples of, 39–40planning framework for, 49–66
institutionalization throughprotection, 50–56
active defenses, 52–53attack operations, 52avoidance, 53–54passive defenses, 55–56
institutionalization throughthreat management,56–63
deterrence, 61–62, 61ndissuasion, intelligence, and
defense planning, 59–60,59n, 60n
information operations, 62–63preemption, 60–61prevention, 57–59
internationalization, 63–66cooperating to prevent and
dissuade, 66coordinating destruction,
65–66sharing protections, 65, 65nsynchronizing operations,
64–65understanding the threat, 64
potential adversaries, 40–43, 40n,42n
surprise and anonymity, potentialfor, 43–45, 43n, 44n, 45n
weapons of mass destruction(WMD), challenge of,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, see alsoDefense, new challenges of
A&T (acquisition and technology), 17ATACM (Army’s Tactical Missile
System), 111, 291Attack operations, against CBW
threats, 50, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
Augustine, Norm, 113–114
Index 365
Avoidance operations, against CBWthreats, 53–54, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
AWACS (Airborne Warning andControl System), 110, 121, 304
Axtell, Robert, 274n
Ballistic missiles, 35, 36n, 39, 40, 41,50, 52, 61n, 108, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
Bandwidth limitations, 84–85Bankes, Stephen C., 256nBank Secrecy Act, 330Basic training, 187Batten, C. L., 230nBattlefield information systems, see
Information architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of
BCPs, see Best commercial practices(BCPs), relevant to DoD
Becker, Gary S., 200nBeirut, 41, 42Belldina, Jeremy S., 316nBennett, Bruce W., 33, 36nBerners-Lee, Tim, 91nBerstein, Nurith, 13Best commercial practices (BCPs),
relevant to DoD, 211–213, 211n,212n
identifying BCPs, 223–246, 223nchange-related activities,
224–227DoD’s strategic goals,
233–239, 233n, 235n, 237ninsights from commercial
experience, 242–246key barriers to, 239–242, 239nstrategic sourcing, 231–233,
231n, 232n, 233nstructural differences,
227–230, 227n, 230n
specific processes of, 213–219cross-government learning,
218–219defining, 214–215examples of, 213–214expectations for, 215–217, 216nlean production, 217–218, 218n
total quality management (TQM)and, 219–223
differentiating viewpoints,222–223
key benefits of, 219–222Best Practices: Building Your Business
with Customer-FocusedSolutions (Hiebeler), 223n
Biberdorf, Curt, 51nBigelow, James H., 258n, 267nBin Laden, Osama, 43“Biological Weapons” (Alibek), 35nBiological weapons (BW), 35n, 39, 47,
48n, 49Bosnia, 115, 346Bounded rationality, 98, 98nBracken, Paul, 135nBrady, Edward, 317nBranting, Darryl L., 248n“Bridging the Gap Between Warriors
and Politicians,” 15nBriggs, Robert O., 340nBritain, 81, 123Buddin, Richard, 197nBudget preparation, 19–22Buoy-hosted sensors, 111Bush administration, 25, 31, 47, 57,
61BW (biological weapons), 35n, 39, 47,
48n, 49
CAIV (cost as an independentvariable), 26
Camm, Frank, 211Canada, 81Capabilities-based planning
choices and resource allocation of,151–155, 151n
key features of, 60, 141–144, 142n
366 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
mission-system analysis and, 144,144n
multiple objectives and measuresof, 145
scenario space strategy,146–151, see also Exploratoryanalysis and implications
Caribbean Financial Action TaskForce (CFATF), 337
Carrillo, Manuel J., 261nCastle systems, 127–128“CB Protective Field Duty Uniform”
(Biberdorf), 51nCBW (chemical and biological
weapons), 34, 38n, 45–46, 48–49,49n, 50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
CCDs (charged-coupled devices),106
C-Day, 291CEC (cooperative engagement
capability), 358Centralized planning, 29–30CFATF (Caribbean Financial Action
Task Force), 337CFE (Conventional Forces in
Europe), 36n, 57Charged-coupled devices (CCDs),
106Chemical and biological weapons
(CBW), 34, 38n, 45–46, 48–49,49n, 50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
Chemical weapons (CW), 39, 45n, 47,49n, 293, 296, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
Cheney, Dick, 138nChernobyl virus, 127Chief purchasing officer (CPO), 235,
240, 242China, 39, 47, 121, 328“China Looks to Foil U.S. Missile
Defense System” (Gordon), 42nChomsky, Noam, 91nChu, David S. C., 13
CIA operative, 170CICA (Competition in Contracting
Act), 241CINC (commander in chief), 16, 18,
22C4ISR Analytic Performance
Evaluation (CAPE) Model, 316,316n
C4ISR Mission Assessment (CMA),316, 316n
C4ISR system (command, control,communications, computers,intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance), 88, 116, 118,277
C3I system (command, control,communications, andintelligence), 301
C3IEW Measures of EffectivenessWorkshop (Pawlowski), 312n
Civilian political appointees, 16Civilians, defense, 165–166, 169, 172Civil-military operations center
(CMOC), 313Civil War, 164Classification levels, 81Clausewitz, von Carl, 133nClementine spacecraft, 110Clinton administration, 25, 26, 28CMOC (civil-military operations
center), 313Code Red Worm, 127Cohen, Eliot A., 87nCohen, I. K., 218nCohen, William S., 33n, 49nCohesion: The Human Element in
Combat (Henderson), 188nCold War, defense planning during,
10–11, 14, 25n, 27–28, 33,34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38n, 53, 285
Collaboration technologies, 251, seealso Electronic meeting systems(EMS)
Collective protection shelters,against CBW threats, 55–56
College funds, 190, 200
Index 367
Combat communications, seeInformation architecture, fordefense
Combat modeling, see Exploratoryanalysis and implications
Combat soldier, 162, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for
Command and control (C2) system,78, 109, 124–125, 183, see alsoMilitary information systems,assessment of
“Command and Control Simulation–A Common Thread” (Welch),301n
Command, control, andcommunications (C3) system,77
Command, control,communications, andintelligence (C3I) system, 301
Command, control,communications, computers,intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance (C4ISR) system,88, 116, 118, 277
Commander in chief (CINC), 16, 18,22
Commission on GovernmentProcurement (1972), 27
Common Knowledge (Dixon), 88nCommon strategies, 250Communication networks, see
Information architecture, fordefense
Compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–200, 200n
general human capital,200–201, 201n
initial sorting, 204–205issues for the future, 207–209motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,
202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n, 206n,
see also Military workforce,future planning for
Competition in Contracting Act(CICA), 241
Computer hacker warfare, 39, 120,126–128
Computer warfare, 120Concept of operation (CONOP), 33,
34, 39, 49, 51, 297Congress, U.S., 15, 17, 22, 23, 23n,
190, 345Congressional Record, 35nCONOP (concept of operation), 33,
34, 39, 49, 51, 297Conscription period, 163–165, 163n,
166“Considerations Bearing on the
Merits of the SALT IIAgreements as Signed atVienna” (Nitze), 35n
Constitution, U.S., 15Contamination avoidance, see
Avoidance operations, againstCBW threats
Contemporary warfare, 300Continental United States (CONUS),
328, 329Contract workforce, 169–170, 172CONUS (continental United States),
328, 329Conventional Forces in Europe
(CFE), 36n, 57Conventional warfare, 117–118, 309Cooperative engagement capability
(CEC), 358Cooperative prevention, with allies,
66Coordination of destruction,
65–66Copper, Carolyn, 189nCost as an independent variable
(CAIV), 26Cost-benefit analysis, 28–29Cost-effectiveness analysis, 154Counterterrorism, 31, 321
368 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Coupling Logistics to Operations toMeet Uncertainty and the Threat(CLOUT): An Overview (Cohen),218
CPO (chief purchasing officer), 235,240, 242
Critical Foundations: ProtectingAmerica’s CriticalInfrastructures, 328n
Cross-government learning,218–219
Cruise missiles, 39, 108, 111Cryptographic techniques, 123C3 system (command, control, and
communications), 77C2 system (command and control),
78, 109, 124–125, 183, see alsoMilitary information systems,assessment of
CW (chemical weapons), 39, 45n, 47,49n, 293, 296, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
Cyberpayment policies,330–333, 330n, 331n, see alsoDay After methodology
Cyber soldier, 182–183, see alsoMilitary workforce, futureplanning for
DAB (Defense Acquisition Board),17, 22
DARPA (Defense Advanced ResearchProjects Agency), 27
Data collection, 78–80Data View, 262nDavenport, Thomas, 88nDavis, Paul K., 131, 142n, 149n, 153n,
255, 256n, 258n, 261n, 267nDay After methodology, 323–324
applications and developmentprocess, 326–337
comparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money
laundering, 330–333, 330n,331n
Day After and analyticindependence, 335–337,336n
strategic information warfare(SIW), 327–330, 328n
methodology in brief, 324–326value of, 337–338
DCAA (Defense ContractAdministration Agency), 232
D-Day, 49, 133, 262, 291DD21 (Navy’s Twenty First Century
Destroyer Program), 27Debugging technology, 107Decentralization, 30Deception, 120Decision Support Department
(DSD), 342, 343, 354Decontamination operations, 54Defense, new challenges of
afterword on, 361–362asymmetric threats, responding
to, 33–34, 33nchallenge and response cycles,
45–46, 45n, 60the Cold War to present,
34–35n, 34–39, 36n, 38nconclusions, 66examples of, 39–40planning framework for,
49–66institutionalization through
protection, 50–56active defenses, 52–53attack operations, 52avoidance, 53–54passive defenses, 55–56
institutionalization throughthreat management,56–63
deterrence, 61–62, 61ndissuasion, intelligence,
and defense planning,59–60, 59n, 60n
information operations, 62–63
preemption, 60–61
Index 369
prevention, 57–59internationalization, 63–66
cooperating to prevent anddissuade, 66
coordinating destruction,65–66
sharing protections, 65, 65nsynchronizing operations,
64–65understanding the threat,
64potential adversaries, 40–43,
40n, 42nsurprise and anonymity,
potential for, 43–45, 43n,44n, 45n
weapons of mass destruction(WMD), challenge of,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n
best commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD, 211–213,211n, 212n
identifying, 223–246, 223nchange-related activities,
224–227DoD’s strategic goals,
233–239, 233n, 235n,237n
insights from commercialexperience, 242–246
key barriers to, 239–242, 239nstrategic sourcing,
231–233, 231n, 232n,233n
structural differences,227–230, 227n, 230n
specific processes of,213–219
cross-government learning,218–219
defining, 214–215examples of, 213–214expectations for, 215–217,
216nlean production, 217–218,
218n
total quality management(TQM) and, 219–223
differentiating viewpoints,222–223
key benefits of, 219–222decisionmaking for, 13
allocating resources, 19–22alternative approaches to,
27–29alternative decisionmaking
styles, 29–31division of authority, 15–19, 15ninvestment strategies, 22–27,
23n, 25n, 27nlooking to the future, 31–32military capabilities approach,
14–15information architecture, for
defense, 67–68defining, 68–78, 70n
cultural factors, 73–74, 73nDoD’s requirements, 74–78global information grid (GIG),
70–71hierarchy of, 72–73
elements of, 78–94access, 80–82, 81n, 82ncollection, 78–80integration, 93–94interoperability, 90–93, 91n,
93nknowledge maintenance and
management, 86–89, 87n,88n
networking, 84–86presentation, 82–84, 83nsecurity, 89–90
empowerment of, 94–95introduction, 2–5, 10–12, see also
Defense decisionmaking, newtools for; Defense planning,coping with uncertainty
Defense Acquisition Board (DAB),17, 22
Defense Acquisition: Major’sCommission Reports, 27n
370 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
“Defense Acquisition Reform”(Kaminski), 26n
Defense Advanced Research ProjectsAgency (DARPA), 27
Defense Authorization Act of 1997,27
Defense Contract AdministrationAgency (DCAA), 232
Defense contracting, 24–27Defense decisionmaking, new tools
forafterword on, 361–362Day After methodology,
323–324applications and development
process, 326–337comparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money
laundering, 330–333,330n, 331n
Day After and analyticindependence,335–337, 336n
strategic information warfare(SIW),327–330, 328n
methodology in brief,324–326
value of, 337–338exploratory analysis and
implicationsenabling exploratory analysis,
265–277, 267n, 268nmultiresolution,
multiperspectivemodeling (MRMPM),270–277, 271n, 272n,274n
using Occam’s razor,269–270
exploratory analysis,147–151, 154, 256–265
advanced concepts of, 265defining, 256–258, 256n, 258nstructural uncertainties,
258–259, 258n
types of, 259–265, 259n, 262nintroduction, 255, 255nparameterized example,
282–283, 282nrecent experience, lessons from,
278–281, 278n, 279nintroduction, 248–254, 248n, 250n,
251nmilitary information systems,
assessment of, 299–300, 299nadditional factors in,
307–309, 308n, 309nadvances in, 319context for, 304–307historical perspective,
300–304, 300n, 301n, 302n,304n
NATO code of best practice(COBP), 309–318, 309n,312n, 316n, 317n
residual challenges, 320–322,320n
using electronic meeting systems(EMS), 339–340, 339n
example of, prioritizing navalprograms, 342–359
challenges of, 342–344other possible uses,
358–359overview of methodology,
344–358processes and advantages of,
340–342, 340nusing exploratory modeling, 285
fundamentals of, 290–297need for, 285–290
Joint Integrated ContingencyModel (JICM), 286–288,287n
sensitivity analysis and,288–290
value of, 297–298Defense Logistics Agency, 242Defense Modeling and Simulation
Organization (DMSO), 317
Index 371
Defense planning, coping withuncertainty
the future military workforce,157–158
human capital, 159–172the active force,
characteristics of,159–165, 162n, 163n
looking to the future,169–172
ongoing revolutions,165–168
manpower and personnelanalysis, 172–179
analytic process, 172–174objectives and alternatives,
identifying, 174–179information technology,
incorporating inforecasting the future,
103–107, 104nmission-system analysis and,
144the physical battlefield, real
revolutions on, 107–118,107n
coming of knowledge-basedmilitary, 114–116
from contingency tonecessity, 112–114
conventional war, hyperwar,and mud warfare,117–118, 117n
precision guided munitions(PGMs), 107–112
September 11, events of,128–129, 129n
the virtual battlefield, falserevolutions on, 119–128
antisensor operations,121–122
command-and-controlwarfare, 124–125
computer hacker warfare,126–128
electronic warfare, 122,123–124, 123n
information warfare, defining,119–120
psychological operations,125–126
introduction, 1–2, 98–102, 99n21st century soldier, 181–182
all-volunteer force, 186–207attracting quality personnel,
189–199, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n
compensation, economictheories of, 199–207, 200n
general human capital,200–201, 201n
initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort,
203–204specific human capital,
202–203tournaments, 205–207,
205n, 206nversatility and leadership,
187–189, 188n, 189nissues for the future, 207–209visions of future forces,
182–186cyber soldier, 182–183evolutionary change,
185–186information warrior, 183low-manning vessels,
184–185peace operations, 184rapid response force, 184
uncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning
capabilities-based planning,141–155, 142n, 151n
choices and resourceallocation, 151–155, 151n
key features of, 142–144mission-system analysis and,
144, 144n
372 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
multiple objectives andmeasures of, 145
scenario space strategy,146–151
conceptual strategic planning,134–141
in portfolio-managementterms, 138–141, 139n
strategic planning methods,134–138, 134n, 135n,137n, 138n
historical surprises, 131–134,131n, 133n, 134n
Defense Planning Guidance, 19Defense Policy Panel, 27nDefense Reform Initiative Directive
(DRID), 239Defense Resources Board (DRB), 17Defense Systems Acquisition Review
Council, 22–23Demography, changes in, 105Density reduction operations, 54Department of Defense, see DoD
(Department of Defense)Department of Homeland Security,
321Department of the Navy (DoN)
Warfare Task List, 351, 354, 356Desert Storm, 86, 112, 113, 117, 133,
361Detection measures, against CBW
threats, 55–56Deterrence strategy, against CBW
threats, 61–62, 61n, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
“Developing Scenarios to SupportC3I Analyses” (Starr), 311n
Dewar, James A., 135nDigital electronics, 84, 123, 124Dimensional parameters (DPs), 312Disaster relief, 184Dispersal/evacuation operations, 54Dissuasion strategy, against WMD
threats, 59–60Dixon, Nancy, 88n
DMSO (Defense Modeling andSimulation Organization), 317
Doctrine, organization, training,material, leadership andeducation, personnel, andfacilities (DOTML-PF),306–307, 308, 310
DoD (Department of Defense)divided authority of, 15–17, 15nexpenditure patterns of, 19, 20, 21information architecture for,
74–78, 89information systems of, 299information warfare (IW), 327,
327ninvestment decisions of, 23, 24, 27planning scenarios of, 14–15, 60,
see also Best commercialpractices (BCPs), relevant toDoD
Dolan, Philllip J., 48nDoN (Department of the Navy)
programs, 351, 354, 356DOTML-PF (doctrine, organization,
training, material, leadershipand education, personnel, andfacilities), 306–307, 308, 310
DPs (dimensional parameters), 312Draft era, 166DRB (Defense Resources Board), 17DRID (Defense Reform Initiative
Directive), 239DSD (Decision Support
Department), 342, 343, 354The DynaRank Decision Support
System (Hillestad), 153n
“The Economics of MilitaryManpower” (Warner), 190n
Economics strategy, 27–28“An Ecstasy of Fumbling: Doctrine
and Innovation” (McKenzie),45n
Educational achievement,166–168
Edwards, Sean, 85n
Index 373
EELV (Air Force’s EvolvedExpendable Launch Vehicle), 27
The Effects of Nuclear Weapons(Glasstone), 48
Effort motivation theory,203–204
Egypt, 47, 116Eitelberg, Mark, 162nElectronic meeting systems (EMS),
253, 339–340, 339nexample of, prioritizing naval
programs, 342–359challenges of, 342–344other possible uses, 358–359overview of methodology,
344–358processes and advantages of,
340–342, 340nElectronic payment systems,
330–333, 330n, 331nElectronic warfare, 120, 122,
123–124, 123n, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning
Emergency Planning andCommunity Right-to-Know Act(EPCRA), 214
EMS (electronic meeting system), seeElectronic meeting systems(EMS)
Encryption, 124Engineering, systems, 87Enlisted force, 168, 170, see also
Military workforce, futureplanning for
Enlisted-to-officer ratio, 161–162Environment shaping, 137, 138,
138n, 140EPCRA (Emergency Planning and
Community Right-to-KnowAct), 214
EU (European Union), 329Eunjung Cha, Ariana, 81nEurope, 92, 105European Union (EU), 329
Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle(EELV), 27
EXHALT model, 279Expeditionary Aerospace Force, 308“Experimental Evaluation of
Alternative and AdaptiveArchitectures in Command andControl” (Kemple), 310n
Experiments in MultiresolutionModeling (Davis), 267n
Exploratory analysis andimplications
enabling exploratory analysis,265–277, 267n, 268n
multiresolution,multiperspective modeling(MRMPM), 270–277, 271n,272n, 274n
using Occam’s razor, 269–270exploratory analysis, 147–151, 154,
256–265advanced concepts of, 265defining, 256–258, 256n, 258nstructural uncertainties,
258–259, 258ntypes of, 259–265, 259n, 262n
introduction, 255, 255nparameterized example,
282–283, 282nrecent experience, lessons from,
278–281, 278n, 279nusing exploratory modeling, 285
fundamentals of, 290–297need for, 285–290
Joint Integrated ContingencyModel (JICM), 286–288,287n
sensitivity analysis and,288–290
value of, 297–298, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new tools for
Exploratory Analysis of “The HaltProblem”: A Briefing on Methodsand Initial Insights (Davis), 261n
“Exploratory Modeling for PolicyAnalysis” (Bankes), 256n
374 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
“A Failure to Learn: AmericanAntisubmarine Warfare in1942,” 87n
FAIR (Federal Activities InventoryReform of 1998), 239
FAR (Federal AcquisitionRegulations), 24, 26
FCS (Future Combat System), 308,318
Federal Acquisition Regulations(FAR), 24, 26
Federal Acquisition Streamlining Actof 1994, 26
Federal Activities Inventory Reform(FAIR) Act of 1998, 239
Financial Crimes EnforcementNetwork (FinCEN), 330, 331, 334
FinCEN (Financial CrimesEnforcement Network), 330,331, 334
Fitzhugh commission (1970), 27Force XXI initiative, 70Forecasting, 103–104, 250Forrestal, James, 15Forrester, Jay, 269“Forward from the Sea,” 308Fox, Daniel B., 45n, 286“A Framework for Information
Systems Architecture”(Zachman), 72n
France, 112Fukuyama, Frank, 73nFuture Combat System (FCS), 308,
318“Future of the Agreed Framework”
(Myong Chol), 43Future Years Defense Program
(FYDP), 20FYDP (Future Years Defense
Program ), 20
Gansler, Jacques, 27Gardiner, Sam, 45nGCCS (Global Command and
Control System), 70, 83
Gebman, J. R., 230nGen Dets (general detail personnel),
185General detail personnel (Gen Dets),
185Geneva Convention, 90Germany, 45n, 123, 189GI Bill, 190, 195n, 200GIG (global information grid), 70–71,
77, 79, 82, 307, 308, see alsoInformation architecture, fordefense
Glasstone, Samuel, 48nGlobal Business Network, 128Global Command and Control
System (GCCS), 70, 83Global information grid (GIG), 70–71,
77, 79, 82, 307, 308, see alsoInformation architecture, fordefense
Global positioning system (GPS), 46,108
GNP (gross national product), 112Goldwater Nichols Act of 1986, 16–17Gompert, David C., 139nGooch, John, 87nGoodman, Glenn W. Jr., 46nGordon, Michael R., 42nGovernment-operated shipyards, 23Government Performance and
Results Act, 19nGPS (global positioning system), 46,
108Grace commission (1983), 27Gross national product (GNP), 112Ground force invasions, 36nGround sensors, 111, 122Group decisionmaking, 98“Group Decision Making”
(Schoemaker), 99nGroupware: Collaborative Strategies
for Corporate LAN’s andIntranets, 340n
Guerilla warfare, 38
Index 375
Guidance and Terms of Reference forthe 2001 Quadrennial DefenseReview (Rumsfeld), 36n
Handbook of Defense Economics,Vol. 1 (Hartley), 190n
Hanley, Janet M., 197nHartley, Keith, 190nHazardous pay, 200Heat-seeking missiles, 108Henderson, William Darryl, 188nHenrion, Max, 259nHermann, Robert, 300Hidden Order: How Adaptation
Builds Complexity (Holland),134n
Hiebeler, Robert, 223nHigh Level Architecture (HLA), 304Hillestad, R. J., 153nHitch, Charles, 19HLA (High Level Architecture), 304Hoegberg, K. T., 304nHolland, John, 134nHolmstrom, Bengt, 206nHomeland security, 31, 321, 333nHoover commissions (1949 & 1955),
27Hosek, James R., 181, 196nHouse Committee on Armed
Services, 27nHuman capital, military
the active force, characteristics of,159–165, 162n, 163n
compensation, economic theoriesof, 199–200, 200n
general human capital,200–201, 201n
initial sorting, 204–205issues for the future, 207–209motivation of effort, 203–204specific human capital,
202–203tournaments, 205–207, 205n,
206n
looking to the future, 169–172ongoing revolutions of,
165–168, see also Militaryworkforce, future planning for
Human intelligence (HUMINT), 64Humanitarian operations, 161, 184Hundley, Richard O., 37nHussein, Saddam, 39, 112Hybrid exploration, 260, 263Hyperwar, 76–77, 117, 118
ICBMs (intercontinental ballisticmissiles), 35
Identification Friend Foe or Neutral[IFFN] test bed, 304
Iiachinski, Andrew, 317nIl Sung, Kim, 40n, 49n“Implementing Multiresolution
Models and Families of Models:From Entity Level Simulation toPersonal-Computer StochasticModels and Simple ‘ReproModels’” (McEver), 279n
India, 47Information architecture, for
defense, 67–68defining, 68–78, 70n
cultural factors, 73–74, 73nDoD’s requirements, 74–78global information grid (GIG),
70–71hierarchy of, 72–73
elements of, 78–94access, 80–82, 81n, 82ncollection, 78–80integration, 93–94interoperability, 90–93, 91n, 93nknowledge maintenance and
management, 86–89, 87n,88n
networking, 84–86presentation, 82–84, 83nsecurity, 89–90
376 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
empowerment of, 94–95, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning; Militaryinformation systems,assessment of
Information operations, againstWMD threats, 38,62–63, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
Information systems, seeInformation architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of
Information technology, for defenseplanning
forecasting the future,103–107, 104n
mission-system analysis and, 144,144n
the physical battlefield, realrevolutions on, 107–118, 107n
coming of knowledge-basedmilitary, 114–116
from contingency to necessity,112–114
conventional war, hyperwar,and mud warfare,117–118, 117n
precision guided munitions(PGMs), 107–112
September 11, events of,128–129, 129n
the virtual battlefield, falserevolutions on, 119–128
antisensor operations,121–122
command-and-control warfare,124–125
electronic warfare, 122,123–124, 123n
hacker warfare, 126–128information warfare, defining,
119–120
psychological operations,125–126, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new toolsfor; Defense planning,coping with uncertainty
Information warfare (IW), 38,119–120, 327, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning
Information warrior, 183, see alsoMilitary workforce, futureplanning for
Input exploration, see Exploratoryanalysis and implications
Inspections, CBW, 58“Institutional and Occupational
Trends in the Armed Forces”(Moskos), 197n
Integrated process teams (IPTs), 235,237, 240
Intelligence community, U.S., 59, 77,78
Intelligence, surveillance, andreconnaissance (ISR) system, 77
Interception, message, 123Intercontinental ballistic missiles
(ICBMs), 35Internet access, 69, 72, 73, 84, 94Interoperability, 90–93, 91n, 93n, 116Investment decisions, review process
of, 22–27, 23n, 25n, 27n“Investment in Human Capital: A
Theoretical Analysis” (Becker),200n
IPTs (integrated process teams), 235,237, 240
IRA (Irish Republican Army), 43Iran, 47, 49n, 57, 329Iraq, 28, 36, 39, 41, 43n, 45, 47, 48, 58,
62, 113Irish Republican Army (IRA), 43Irreducible semi-autonomous
adaptive combat (ISAAC), 316–317, 317n
Index 377
ISAAC (irreducible semi-autonomous adaptive combat),316–317, 317n
ISO 9000, 221n, 222–223Israel, 116, 132ISR system (intelligence,
surveillance, andreconnaissance), 77
Italy, 189IT 21 project, 70IW (information warfare), 38,
119–120, 327, see alsoInformation technology, fordefense planning
Jabal Ali, 39Japan, 42, 105JASON study, 70JCS (Joint Chiefs of Staff), 17, 319JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition),
108JFCOM (Joint Forces Command),
308, 317, 321JICM (Joint Integrated Contingency
Model), 256, 276, 286–288, 297,see also Exploratory analysis andimplications
Johnson, Stuart E., 339Joint Battlespace Infosphere, 71,
309nJoint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), 17, 319Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM),
108Joint Forces Command (JFCOM),
308, 317, 321Joint Integrated Contingency Model
(JICM), 256, 276, 286–288, 297,see also Exploratory analysis andimplications
Joint Internet for secret material(SIPRnet), 70
Joint Internet for unclassified work(NIPRnet), 70
Joint Mission Essential Task List, 351Joint Requirements Oversight
Council, 18
Joint Simulation System (JSIMS), 309Joint Surveillance Target Attack
Radar System (JSTARS), 80, 110,121
Joint Virtual Battlespace (JVB), 318Joint Vision 2010, 70, 319nJoint Vision 2020, 70, 304n, 319nJoint Warfare System (JWARS), 309,
321Jones, Daniel T., 217nJoy, Bill, 75JSIMS (Joint Simulation System), 309JSTARS (Joint Surveillance Target
Attack Radar System), 80, 110,121
Junior enlisted, 166, 170, 172JVB (Joint Virtual Battlespace), 318JWARS (Joint Warfare System), 309,
321
Kaminski, Paul, 26nKelly, Thomas B., 223nKelman, Steven, 231nKemple, William G., 310nKennedy administration, 18–19Khobar Towers, 44Knowledge-based military, 114–116,
see also Information technology,for defense planning
Knowledge management,86–89, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense
Korea, 15, 39, 140, 163, 164, 285Kosovo, 41, 117, 133Kuwait, 40, 291
LaBerge, Walt, 313Lampert, Robert, 256nLanchester square law, 282–283The Language Instinct (Pinker), 91nLaser-guided artillery, 108Lazear, Edward P., 203nLeadership skills, 188–189, 188n,
189nLean production, 217–218, 218n
378 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Learning About Quality: How theQuality of Military Personnel IsRevealed over Time (Hosek),196n
Lebanon, 41, 42Leggett, Robert L., 36nLevine, Arnold S., 219nLevy, Daniel S., 197nLibicki, Martin C., 67, 103, 144Libya, 36, 47Lindbloom, Charles, 137nLippiatt, Abell T., 218nLogistical uncertainties, 113, 218nLong-range propulsion systems, 112Luck, Jeff, 219nLurie, Ranan R., 49n
The Machine That Changed theWorld (Womack), 217
Macro-scale technologies, 107, 108Maintenance work, mandates for,
23nMajor theater wars (MTWs), 14, 15n,
28, 140, 185, 186, 350Malcolm Baldrige Award, 221n, 223Management by exception,
30–31Maneuver warfare, 34n, 113Man-guided weapons, 80, 108Manpower requirements, see
Military workforce, futureplanning for
Marine Corps, U.S., 93, 192, 308Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT), 302Mateski, Mark, 43nMattock, Michael G., 196nMCES (Modular Command and
Control Evaluation Structure),302
McEver, Jimmie, 149n, 258n, 279nMcKenzie, Kenneth F. Jr., 45nMcNamara, Robert, 17, 19, 22, 27, 29,
30Measures of effectiveness (MOEs),
145, 312
Measures of force effectiveness(MOFEs), 312
Measures of merit (MOMs),311–313
Measures of performance (MOPs),312
Measuring Capabilities forInterdiction: ExploratoryAnalysis to Inform AdaptiveStrategies for the Persian Gulf(Davis), 149n
MEMS (micro-electromechanicalsystems), 106
Metamodel, 270nMexico, 329Microbiology, 106Micro-electromechanical systems
(MEMS), 106Microelectronics, 106Microstructures, 106Middle East, 105Military Compensation Background
Papers, 200nMilitary information systems,
assessment of, 299–300, 299nadditional factors in, 307–309,
308n, 309nadvances in, 319context for, 304–307historical perspective, 300–304,
300n, 301n, 302n, 304nNATO code of best practice
(COBP), 309–318, 309n, 312n,316n, 317n
residual challenges, 320–322,320n, see also Defense, newchallenges of; Defensedecisionmaking, new tools for
Military Misfortunes (Cohen), 87nMilitary Operations Research Society
(MORS), 302, 309, 312, 313The Military Specialist: Skilled
Manpower for the Armed Forces(Wool), 162n
Military training, 166–167,187–189
Index 379
Military workforce, future planningfor, 157–158
human capital, 159–172the active force, characteristics
of, 159–165, 162n, 163nlooking to the future,
169–172ongoing revolutions,
165–168manpower and personnel
analysis, 172–179analytic process, 172–174objectives and alternatives,
identifying, 174–17921st century soldier, 181–182
all-volunteer force, 186–207attracting quality personnel,
189–199, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n
compensation, economictheories of, 199–207, 200n
general human capital,200–201, 201n
initial sorting, 204–205motivation of effort,
203–204specific human capital,
202–203tournaments, 205–207,
205n, 206nversatility and leadership,
187–189, 188n, 189nissues for the future, 207–209visions of future forces,
182–186cyber soldier, 182–183evolutionary change,
185–186information warrior, 183low-manning vessels,
184–185peace operations, 184rapid response force, 184, see
also Defense planning,coping with uncertainty
Miniaturization, 107, 108
Mintzberg, Henry, 134nMissile launchers, 52Mission oriented approach (MOA),
302, 303Mission-system analysis, 144, 144nMIT (Massachusetts Institute of
Technology), 302Mittleman, Daniel D., 340nMOA (mission oriented approach),
302–303Mobile access, 84Modeling and simulation
(M & S), 314Modular Command and Control
Evaluation Structure (MCES),302
MOEs (measures of effectiveness),145, 312
MOFEs (measures of forceeffectiveness), 312
Mogadishu, 41Molander, Roger C., 328n, 331n,
333nMOMs (measures of merit),
311–313Money laundering study,
330–333, see also Day Aftermethodology
Montgomery GI Bill, 190, 195n, 200MOPs (measures of performance),
312“Moral Hazard and Observability”
(Holmstrom), 206nMorgan, Granger, 259nMorrison, Philip, 107nMORS (Military Operations Research
Society), 302, 309, 312, 313Moskos, Charles C., 197nMotivated Metamodels: Synthesis of
Cause-Effect Reasoning andStatistical Metamodeling(Davis), 267n
MRM (multiresolution modeling),270–277, 271n, 274n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications
380 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
MRMPM (multiresolution,multiperspective modeling),270–277, 271n, 272n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications
M&S (modeling and simulation), 314MTWs (major theater wars), 14, 15n,
28, 140, 185, 286, 350Mud warfare, 117, 118Mullen, Brian, 189nMultiresolution modeling (MRM),
270–277, 271n, 274n, see alsoExploratory analysis andimplications
Multiresolution, multiperspectivemodeling (MRMPM), 270–277,271n, 272n, see also Exploratoryanalysis and implications
Muslims, 129Mussington, David, 323, 331n, 333nMyong Chol, Kim, 43n
National Military Establishment, 15National Security Act of 1949, 15, 22,
29National security policy, U.S.
classification levels, 81consequences for, 13, 286, 319,
347–350development of analytic tools for,
323–324analysis of, 335–337, 336ncomparison of, 333–335, 333ncyberpayments and money
laundering, 330–333, 330n,331n
Day After methodology,324–326
strategic information warfare(SIW), 327–330, 328n
value of, 337–338, see alsoDefense decisionmaking,new tools for
NATO (North Atlantic TreatyOrganization), 45, 115, 116, 117,133, 148
NATO and the Warsaw Pact: ForceComparisons, 35n
NATO Code of Best Practice forCommand and ControlAssessment (COBP), 253n, 300,300n, 309–318, see also Militaryinformation systems,assessment of
NATO corps, 34–35nNATO C3 Master Plan, 304nNaval brilliant antitank (NBAT), 291,
294, 296Naval Postgraduate School (NPS),
301–302Naval Research Laboratory (NRL),
110Naval War College, 248n, 342Navy, U.S., 27, 87, 98, 113, 184, 192,
193, 308NBAT (Naval brilliant antitank), 291,
294, 296NCOs (noncommissioned officers),
166, 167, 170Networking, 84–86, see also
Information architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of
New Challenges for DefensePlanning: Rethinking HowMuch Is Enough (Davis), 256n
The New Management Paradigm: AReview of Principles andPractices (Levine), 219n
“A New Strategy for MilitarySpending” (Morrison), 107n
NGOs (nongovernmentalorganizations), 144, 305, 313,314, 329, 361
NIPRnet (joint Internet forunclassified work), 70
Nitze, Paul, 35nNoncommissioned officers (NCOs),
166, 167, 170
Index 381
Nongovernmental organizations(NGOs), 144, 305, 313, 314, 329,361
Nonwar operations, 161North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO), 45, 115, 116, 117, 133,148
Northeast Asia Peace and SecurityNetwork, 42n
North Korea, 28, 36, 38n, 39, 40n, 42,43, 47, 49n, 57, 61, 62
“North Korea Assails ‘Axis’ Label”(Sands), 61n
No-surprises future, 135“Nowhere to Hide” (Goodman), 46nNPS (Naval Postgraduate School),
301–302NRL (Naval Research Laboratory),
110Nuclear modernization program, 31Nuclear weapons, 35, 47, 48, 52, 53,
57, see also Asymmetric threats,responding to
Nunamaker, Jay F., Jr., 340n
OASD (Office of the AssistantSecretary of Defense), 301
Objective Force Warrior (OFW), 308Occam’s razor, principle of,
269–270Office of Management and Budget
(OMB), 20, 214nOffice of Naval Research (ONR), 302Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (OASD), 301Office of the Secretary of Defense
(OSD), 15, 16, 19, 20, 190, 308,316, 329, 342
Officer manpower, see Militaryworkforce, future planning for
OFW (Objective Force Warrior), 308Okinawa, 140OMB (Office of Management and
Budget), 20, 214nONR (Office of Naval Research), 302On-the-job training, 187
“On the Science of MuddlingThrough” (Lindbloom), 137n
On War (Clausewitz), 133nOOTWs (operations other than war),
309, 310, 312, 314, 317Open-source intelligence, 88Operation Anaconda, 117nOperational adaptiveness, 137Operational architecture, 71, 81Operational Level Norms (Rehm),
36nOperational testing, 23nOperations other than war (OOTWs),
309, 310, 312, 314, 317Optical sensors, 122Organizational change, see Best
commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD
OSD (Office of the Secretary ofDefense), 15, 16, 19, 20, 190, 308,316, 321, 329, 342
Owens, William, 70
Packard, David, 22, 23Packard commission (1986), 27nPakistan, 47Parametric exploration, see
Exploratory analysis andimplications
Passive defense, against CBWthreats, 55–56, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
Past Revolutions, FutureTransformations (Hundley), 37n
Pawlowski, Thomas J., 312nPCCIP (President’s Commission on
Critical InfrastructureProtection), 328n
Peace operations, 77, 184Peacetime conscription, 163n, 164Pearl Harbor, 42Pegasus, 317, 319PEM (personal-computer model),
278, 279, 281Pentagon, 10, 132, 299
382 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Perla, Peter P., 248nPerry, William, 25, 107, 109Persian Gulf War, 15, 40–41, 48, 58,
213, 300, 328Personal-computer model (PEM),
278, 279, 281Personnel policy, 172–174, see also
Military workforce, futureplanning for
Personnel productivity, 189–198,190n, 194n, 195n, 197n
Petty officers (POs), 166, 167, 170PGMs (precision guided munitions),
107–112, 115, 186, 355Philippines, 140Physical architecture, 71, 72Pinker, Steven, 91nPint, Ellen M., 233nPlanning, Programming, and
Budgeting System (PPBS), 19–22, 346
Platform-based military, 114Point-guided weapons, 80, 108, 109“The Policy Game” (Mateski), 43nPOM (program objectives
memorandum), 19–20, 30, 174,343
Portfolio-management framework,138–141, 139n, see alsoUncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning
POs (petty officers), 166, 167, 170Post-conflict sanctions, 61PPBS (Planning, Programming, and
Budgeting System),19–22, 346
Precision guided munitions (PGMs),107–112, 115, 186, 355
Preemption strategy, against WMDthreats, 60–61, see alsoAsymmetric threats, respondingto
President, U.S., 18President’s Commission on Critical
Infrastructure Protection(PCCIP), 328n
President’s National SecurityStrategy, 344
Prevention, against WMD threats,57–59, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
Private contractors, 24Private-sector wages, 208, 209“Prizes and Incentives in Elimination
Tournaments” (Rosen), 205nProbabilistic exploration, see
Exploratory analysis andimplications
Procurement and PublicManagement (Kelman), 231n
Procurement process, defense,22–27, 23n, 25n, 27n
Program objectives memorandum(POM), 19–20, 30, 174, 343
Proliferation of Weapons of MassDestruction: Assessing the Risks,48n
Promotions, competitions for,205–207, 205n, 206n
Promotion Tempo and EnlistedRetention (Buddin), 197n
Propaganda, 120, 125Protection, against CBW threats,
50–56, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
Protective clothing, against CBWthreats, 55–56
Psychological operations (PSYOP),63, 120, 125–126
Public access, to civilianinformation, 80–82, 81n
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR),33, 49, 60, 139, 253, 318, 342
Quarantine/travel operations, 54
Radar-based technology, 52,121–122, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense;Information technology, fordefense planning
Radar-guided missiles, 108
Index 383
Radar jamming, 123Radiological weapons, 47RAND Strategy Assessment System
(RSAS), 256nR&D (research and development),
25n, 59, 299, 302Rapid response force, 184Realpolitik, 138Reconnaissance satellites, 78, 80,
108, 110, 121, 122Recruit quality and retention rates,
189–198, 190n, 194n, 195n, 197nRegular military compensation, 200,
201nRehm, Allan S., 36n“The Relationship Between Group
Cohesiveness and Performance”(Mullen), 189n
Relocation operations, 54Remote-controlled weapons, 111Report of the Defense Science Board
Task Force on InformationWarfare, 119n
Report of the Quadrennial DefenseReview (Cohen), 33n, 49n
Research and development (R&D),25n, 59, 299, 302
Reserve Officers Training Corps(ROTC), 200
Reservists, selected, 166, 172The Retention of High-Quality
Personnel in the U.S. ArmedForces (Ward), 196n
Retention rates, 189–198, 190n, 194n,195n, 197n
Retirement benefits, 203–204, 207,see also Compensation,economic theories of
Revolution in military affairs (RMA),13, 37, 38, 46, 112, 172, 186
Riddile, Andrew S., 328nThe Rise and Fall of Strategic
Planning (Mintzberg), 134n“Risks Prompt U.S. to Limit Access to
Data” (Eunjung Cha), 81n
RMA (revolution in military affairs),13, 37, 38, 46, 112, 172, 186
Roos, Daniel, 217nRosen, Sherwin, 205nROTC (Reserve Officers Training
Corps), 200RSAS (RAND Strategy Assessment
System), 256nRumsfeld, Donald H., 36n, 61nRussia, 47, 112, 189, 328, 329
SADARM (sense and destroy armormunition), 46
SALT (Strategic Arms LimitationsTreaty), 57
SAMs (surface-to-air missiles), 39,109
Sandler, Todd, 190nSands, David R., 61nSARA (Superfund Amendments and
Reauthorization Act), 214nSatellites, reconnaissance, 78, 80,
108, 110, 121, 122Saudi Arabia, 44, 291, 328SBA (Small Business
Administration), 241SBCT (Stryker Brigade Combat
Team), 308SCAV (Sea Cavalry), 291, 292, 294,
296Scenario-based planning, 250, 250nScenario space strategy, 146–151,
256, see also Capabilities-basedplanning
Schlesinger, Michael E., 256nSchoemaker, Paul J. H., 99nSchwartz, Peter, 128Scud missile defenses, 40, 41, 53Sea Cavalry (SCAV), 291, 292, 294,
296SEAD (suppression of enemy air
defenses), 150, 265Seaport of debarkation (SPOD), 291Second sourcing, 24nSecretary of Defense, see Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD)
384 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Security architectures, 75, 89–90, seealso Information architecture,for defense
Seeker-guided weapons, 80, 108Selected reservists, 166, 172Self-defense systems, 113“The Self-Evaluation Organization”
(Wildavsky), 99nSenior Readiness Oversight Council
(SROC), 18Sense and destroy armor munition
(SADARM), 46Sensemaking, 320nSensitivity analysis, 288–290, see also
Exploratory analysis andimplications
Sensor systems, 79–80, 86, 108,110–111, see also Informationarchitecture, for defense;Information technology, fordefense planning; Militaryinformation systems,assessment of
September 11, events of, 10,128–129, 129n, 286, 361–362
Sequencing operations, 54Serbia, 115Service Visions, 308nSharing protections, with allies, 65,
65nSha Zukang, 42nShewhart cycle, 229nShips, 121, 184–185Short-range ballistic missiles, 50Shulman, H. L., 230nSimon, Herbert, 98nSinai, 116SINCGARS (Single Channel Ground
and Airborne Radio System), 84Single Channel Ground and Airborne
Radio System (SINCGARS), 84SIPRnet (joint Internet for secret
material), 70SIW (strategic information warfare),
327–330, 328n
SLBMs (submarine-launchedballistic missiles), 35
Sloan, Joan F., 36nSmall Business Administration
(SBA), 241Smallpox virus, 35, 59Soldier, of the 21st century, see
Military workforce, futureplanning for
Somalia, 41, 169SORTS (Status of Readiness and
Training System), 175nSourcing practices, see Best
commercial practices (BCPs),relevant to DoD
South Korea, 38n, 62Southwest Asia (SWA), 291, 328Soviet Union threat, 10, 28, 34, 36n,
45, 300Spanish American War, 161Special forces operations, 39, 40nSPOD (seaport of debarkation), 291Spoofing, message, 123Spy satellites, 78, 80, 108, 110, 121,
122SROC (Senior Readiness Oversight
Council), 18Standoff operations, 38, 54, 76Starr, Stuart H., 299, 311n, 317nSTART models, 276Status of Readiness and Training
System (SORTS), 175nStealth aircraft, 111Strategic adaptiveness, 137Strategic Arms Limitations Treaty
(SALT), 57Strategic forecasting, 103–104, 250Strategic Information Warfare: A New
Face of War (Molander), 328nStrategic information warfare (SIW),
327–330, 328nStrategic planning, 249–250, 250n,
see also Uncertainty-sensitivestrategic planning
Strategic warning, 131n
Index 385
A Strategy for Reforming AvionicsAcquisition and Support(Gebman), 230n
Strength-on-strength combat, 34Stryker Brigade Combat Team
(SBCT), 308Submarine-launched ballistic
missiles (SLBMs), 35Sudan, 47Suez Canal, 132Suicide bombers, 129Sullivan, Gordon, 71Sun Tzu, 34nSuperfund Amendments and
Reauthorization Act (SARA),214n
Suppression of enemy air defenses(SEAD), 150, 265
Surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), 39,109
SWA (Southwest Asia), 291, 328Swarming on the Battlefield: Past,
Present, and Future (Edwards),85n
Synchronizing operations, 64–65Syria, 47Systems architecture, see
Information architecture, fordefense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of
TACCSF (Theater Air Command andControl Simulation Facility), 304
Tactical Infosphere, 309nTACWAR models, 276, 320Taft, William, 31Taiwan, 39Taliban, 42, 129, 183Tan, Hong W., 196nTCOs (transcontinental criminal
organizations), 328, 330Technical architecture, 71
Technology, changes in, 105–107, seealso Information architecture,for defense; Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning; Military informationsystems, assessment of
Tenet, George, 43, 44nTerrorism, 10, 39, 52, 62, 118, 286,
361–362Thatcher, Margaret, 43Theater Air Command and Control
Simulation Facility (TACCSF),304
Theory of Model Aggregation forDynamical Systems withApplications to Problems ofGlobal Change (Axtell), 274n
Theory of Self-Replacing Automata(Von Neumann), 307n
Thie, Harry J., 157Threat avoidance operations, 54Threat management, 56–63, 59n,
60n, 61n, see also Asymmetricthreats, responding to
TOC (total ownership cost), 231n,235, 240
Tomahawk cruise missile, 108Total force policy, 165–166Total ownership cost (TOC), 231n,
235, 240Total quality management (TQM),
219–223differentiating viewpoints, 222–
223key benefits of, 219–222, see also
Best commercial practices(BCPs), relevant to DoD
Tournament models, 205–207, 205n,206n
TOW (tube-launched, opticallytracked, wire-guided) antitankmissile, 108
“Toward a NATO C3 Master Plan”(Hoegberg), 304n
“Toward 21st-Century Deterrence”(Rumsfeld), 61n
386 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Toxic releases inventory (TRI), 214TQM, see Total quality management
(TQM)Training, military, 166–168, 187–189,
see also Military workforce,future planning for
Transcontinental criminalorganizations (TCOs), 328, 330
Transformation concepts, seeCapabilities-based planning
Transmitters, digital, 123Treverton, Gregory F., 33n, 212TRI (toxic releases inventory), 214Trust: The Social Virtues and the
Creation of Prosperity(Fukuyama), 73n
Tube-launched, optically tracked,wire-guided (TOW) antitankmissile, 108
Twenty First Century DestroyerProgram (DD21), 27
“Two Legs Do Not a CentipedeMake” (Leggett), 36n
Twomey, Christopher P., 33n
UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles),39, 80, 110, 112, 114, 121, 122,358
UCAVs (unmanned combat airvehicles), 111
U.N. (United Nations), 58Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with
Uncertainty in Quantitative Riskand Policy Analysis (Morgan),259n
Uncertainty-sensitive strategicplanning
capabilities-based planning, 141–155, 142n, 151n
choices and resource allocation,151–155, 151n
key features of, 142–144mission-system analysis and,
144, 144nmultiple objectives and
measures of, 145
scenario space strategy,146–151
conceptual strategic planning,134–141
in portfolio-management terms,138–141, 139n
strategic planning methods,134–138, 134n, 135n, 137n,138n
historical surprises, 131–134, 131n,133n, 134n, see also Defensedecisionmaking, new toolsfor; Defense planning, copingwith uncertainty
United Nations (U.N.), 58Universal service, 163, 163nUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),
39, 80, 110, 112, 114, 121, 122,358
Unmanned combat air vehicles(UCAVs), 111
Unmanned ground sensors, 122U.S. Ground Forces and the Defense
of Central Europe, 35n
Van Trees, Harry, 300Verify, validate, and certify (VV&C),
314Versatility skills, 187–188Vessels, low-manning, 184–185Vietnam War, 108, 111, 164Voluntary enlistment, 163Von Neumann, John, 307Vulnerability, reducing, see
Asymmetric threats, respondingto
VV&C (verify, validate, and certify),314
Wages, military, 189, 200–201, seealso Compensation, economictheories of
Waldman, Donald M., 197nWalker, Paul F., 107nWard, Michael P., 196n
Index 387
Warfare, information technologyand, see Informationtechnology, for defenseplanning
Warner, John T., 190nWarsaw Pact, 33, 35Wartime conscription, 163–165, 163nWeapons, acquisition of, 27Weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) threats of, 36, 39, 40, 41,47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, 57, 184, seealso Asymmetric threats,responding to
Weaving the Web (Berners-Lee), 91nWeinberger, Caspar, 16, 31Welch, Jasper A., Jr., 300, 301nWhat Are Asymmetric Strategies?
(Bennett), 33“What Wargaming Is and Is Not”
(Perla), 248n“When We Don’t Know the Costs or
the Benefits: Adaptive Strategiesfor Abating Climate Change”(Lempert), 256n
Whiteboarding, 125nWhite House, 77“Why Is There Mandatory
Retirement?” (Lazear), 203nWildavsky, Aaron, 99n
Wilson, Barry, 149nWilson, Peter A., 328n, 331n, 333nWinnefeld, James A., 256nWizard Wars, 123WMD (weapons of mass
destruction), threats of, 36, 39,40, 41, 47–49, 48n, 49n, 50n, 57,184, see also Asymmetric threats,responding to
Womack, James P., 217nWool, Harold, 162nWorkforce requirements, see Military
workforce, future planning forWorking Knowledge (Davenport),
88nWorld Trade Center, 129World War I, 45n, 162, 164World War II, 17, 40n, 42, 53, 68, 132,
162World Wide Web access, 73, 82, 88
Yom-Kippur war, 132Yugoslavia, 112
Zachman, J. A., 72n“Zero” supply, against biological
agents, 58Zraket, Charles, 300
389
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Bruce W. Bennett (Ph.D., policy analysis, RAND Graduate Institutefor Public Policy Analysis) is a senior analyst and professor of policyanalysis at RAND. His research interests include military strategy andforce planning, countering proliferation of weapons of mass de-struction, Korea, and the Persian Gulf.
Nurith Berstein (Masters in public administration, Carleton Univer-sity, Ottawa, Canada) is a researcher at RAND specializing in nationaland international security policy issues.
Frank Camm (Ph.D., economics, University of Chicago) leads re-search at RAND on high-level Army resource management issuesassociated with force structure design, logistics policy, andacquisition of combat service support services.
David S.C. Chu (Ph.D., economics, Yale University) has served in avariety of RAND and national security government posts.
Paul K. Davis (Ph.D., chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology) is a senior scientist and research leader at RAND. His re-search encompasses a number of areas, including strategic defenseplanning, future forces and force transformation, and advancedmodeling and simulation. He is a professor at the RAND GraduateSchool; a member or former member of the Naval Studies Board ofthe National Research Council, the Defense Science Board, and theU.S. SALT Delegation; and author of numerous books and studies.
Daniel B. Fox (Ph.D., operations research, University of Illinois) is asenior operations research analyst at RAND. His focus is the design
390 New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
and application of computer simulations for analysis of complexmilitary operations. Dr. Fox has over 30 years of experience inmilitary operations analysis.
James R. Hosek (Ph.D., economics, University of Chicago) is a senioreconomist at RAND, editor-in-chief of the RAND Journal of Eco-nomics, RAND Graduate School professor, and former director ofRAND’s Defense Manpower Research Center.
Stuart E. Johnson (Ph.D., physical chemistry, Massachusetts Instituteof Technology) was a senior scientist at RAND when this researchwas completed. He has many years of experience in defense planningand analysis at the Department of Defense, NATO headquarters, andin private industry.
Martin C. Libicki (Ph.D., city and regional planning, University ofCalifornia, Berkeley) is a senior policy analyst at RAND whose areasof expertise include the application of information technology to na-tional security.
David Mussington (Ph.D., political science, Carleton University) is apolitical scientist at RAND. Among his areas of expertise are criticalinfrastructure protection, information and technology security, andcounterterrorism and cyberterrorism.
Stuart H. Starr (Ph.D., electrical engineering, University of Illinois) isthe Director of Plans at The MITRE Corporation; his areas of exper-tise include the assessment of information systems in the context ofnational security missions.
Harry J. Thie, (Doctorate, business administration, GeorgeWashington University) is a senior management scientist at RANDwhose research explores military career management and defenseorganization, manpower, personnel, and training.
Gregory F. Treverton (Ph.D., economics and politics, Harvard Uni-versity) is a senior policy analyst at RAND. He has worked on intel-ligence and on Europe for Congress, the White House and theNational Intelligence Council; his current research interests alsoinclude Asia and public-private partnerships.