Decisionmaking in groups
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Transcript of Decisionmaking in groups
Decision Making
Our Style
Our Groups
Jim Marteney
Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad Decision
Make a decision based on money and time you've already spent.
Play up information that confirms your current point of view.
Ignore information that doesn't confirm your current point of view.
Pay too much attention to the first thing you hear, or the first data you receive.
Frame a decision only on the benefits OR risks, but not both.
Believe that your "gut" is the smartest person in the room.
Wear rose-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.
Wear doom-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.
Don't use data at all.
Use nothing but data.
Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad Decision
Everyone Has Their Own Style
Communication
That leads to a style of
Decision Making
Workstyle Communication
Eagle
Roadrunner
Owl
Dove
Patient Fast
Task
People
Systematic
Better Safe Than Sorry
Notice my efficiency
Direct
Notice My Accomplishments
I want it done now
Considerate
Is Everyone Comfortable?
People and feelings important
Spirited
Don’t Confuse Me With Facts
Ain’t we got fun
Decision Making Style
Bull
Eagle
Bloodhound
Bee
Observing Knowing
Unemotional
Emotional
Analytical Direct
Amiable Expressive
We need more data to be sure.
Strike while the iron is hot.
This idea sounds like fun.
Will decision make us comfortable?
Develop Alternatives
Two important steps
Ideation
Judgment
Brainstorming
Goal is Quantity
No Criticism
Build on Ideas
Develop Alternatives
“If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”
Abraham Maslow
Develop Alternatives
Traditional “hammer” what punishment would get them to not litter?
Problem: How Do You get people in a park to throw away their trash?
Reframe problem: How do you make throwing trash away fun?
Develop Alternatives
The World’s Deepest Trashcan
Develop Alternatives
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcrhp-IWK2w
Analyze Alternatives
Appraise Strengths
Appraise Weaknesses
Analyze Alternatives
Select Alternative
Continuum of Certainty
0% 100%
ReasonableDoubt
51%
Preponderanceof Evidence
Inference Test
The number one skill of the human mind
Recognizing Patterns
Every group has a unique personality
Syntality
Leading a Supportive Group
Leading a Supportive Group
Group strength from effective merging of participants individual energy
Synergy
Two Challenges Managing Group Tension
Groupthink
Abilene Paradox
Leading a Supportive Group
Irving Janis
Mismanagement of Disagreement
Groupthink
1972
Groupthink occurs when a homogenous highly cohesive group is so concerned with maintaining unanimity that they fail to evaluate all their alternatives and options.
Groupthink
Groupthink
Irving Janis
“The psychological drive for consensus
at any cost that suppresses dissent
and appraisal of alternatives in
cohesive decision-making groups”
Groupthink
Pearl Harbor
Challenger
Bay of Pigs
Groupthink
Bay of Pigs
RFK was quoted as approaching Schlesinger and saying: “You may be right or wrong, but the President has made up his mind. Don’t push it any further. Now is the time to help him all we can.”
Groupthink
Bay of Pigs
Schlesinger stopped his usual role as devil’s advocate and critic and began to sanction his own challenges.
Groupthink
Groupthink
Challenger Shuttle
Groupthink
Iraq Decision
“While the intention of this book is not to evaluate the Decision to Invade Iraq, the cumulative evidence to date strongly suggests that it is a classic case of groupthink.”
Author: Ph.D, Deborah L. MacKenzie
Groupthink
According to a scathing report released by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the United States went to war with Iraq on the basis of flawed intelligence assessments.
Groupthink
The CIA analysts suffered a case of Groupthink that rendered them incapable of consideringthat Iraq might have dismantled its weapons programs. Senate Intelligence Committee July 10
2004
Groupthink
Groupthink
“I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith, Captain of the Titanic
Groupthink
“I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith, Captain of the Titanic
Groupthink
Members avoid being too harsh in their judgments of their leader’s or their colleagues’ ideas.
Groupthink
They adopt a soft line of criticism, even in their own thinking.
Groupthink
At their meetings, all the members are amiable and seek complete concurrence on every important issue, with no bickering or conflict to spoil the cozy, “we-feeling” atmosphere.
----Psychology Today
Groupthink
Symptoms
Pressure for Conformity
Self-Censorship
Illusion of Unanimity
Mindguards
Groupthink
Negative Outcomes
Examining few alternatives
Not being critical of each other's ideas
Not examining early alternatives
Not seeking expert opinion Being highly selective in gathering
information Not having contingency plans
Refrain from stating preference
Assign a Devil’s Advocate
Seek expert input
Preventing
Call a “Second Chance Meeting”
Split into Sub-groups
Encourage member’s objections
Groupthink
Groupthink
The Key: Someone with the courage to disagree.
Abilene Paradox
Occurs when a group takes action contrary to the desires of the
members
The Mismanagement of Agreement
and thus, defeats the purpose of the group.
Abilene ParadoxThe Mismanagement of Agreement
Abilene Paradox
“Taking the trip to Abilene”
Jerry Harvey
Group Climate
Supportive
Defensive
Two Basic Group Climates
Build a Consensus
Build a Consensus
at least partially agree
are committed to the decision
Where all Group Members
Build a Consensus
Build a Consensus
Avoid Arguing for Just your Opinion
Avoid Win/Lose Situations
Seek Differences of Opinion
Use Group Pronouns
Orient Towards Group Goal
Build a Consensus
Implement Alternative
There will always be resistance
Change has considerable impact on the human mind.
To the fearful, it is threatening because it means things may get worse.
To the hopeful, it is encouraging because things may get better.
To the confident, it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better.
Implement Alternative
Obviously then, one's character and frame of mind determine how one relates to change.
Implement Alternative
“When you assemble a number of (people) to have advantage of their joint wisdom, you assemble with those (people), all their
Prejudices, their passions, their errors of opinion, their local interest, and their selfish views.
From such an assembly can a perfect production be expected?” Ben Franklin Constitutional Convention September 15, 1787