NERC’s 2007-2016 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) Workshop: Natural Gas Dependency in New...
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Transcript of NERC’s 2007-2016 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) Workshop: Natural Gas Dependency in New...
NERC’s 2007-2016 Long-TermReliability Assessment (LTRA) Workshop:Natural Gas Dependency in New England
Michael I. HendersonISO New England Inc.
2 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New England’s Electric Power Grid
• 6.5 million customer meters– Population: 14 million
• 350+ generators• 8,000+ miles of high voltage
transmission lines• 12 interconnections to three
neighboring systems:– New York, New Brunswick,
Quebec
• 31,000 megawatts (MW) of installed generating capacity
• 300+ market participants• Summer peaking system
– Summer: 28,130 MW (8/06)– Winter: 22,818 MW (1/04)
ISO and Local Control Centers
3 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New England’s Capacity – Summer 2007
Pumped
Storage1,689
Coal
2,782
Nuclear
4,555
Oil
6,730
Hydro
1,648
Non-Hydro
Renewables/Misc.917
Gas
12,205
Oil
22.1%
Nuclear
14.9%
Coal
9.1%
Pumped
Storage5.5%
Hydro
5.4%
Non-Hydro
Renewables/Misc.3.0%
Gas
40.0%
Generation capacity mix by primary fuel type, 2007, summer ratings, MW and percentage.Note: “Non-Hydro Renewables” include biomass, refuse, landfill gas, and wind.
4 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New England’s Energy Production - 2006
1.2%
5.4%6.3%
15.2%
28.9%
39.7%
3.3%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1,00
0 M
Wh
New England electric energy production by fuel type, 2006, in 1,000 MWh.Note: “Non-Hydro Renewables” include biomass, refuse, landfill gas, and wind.
5 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New England’s Gas-Fired Fleet
• Potential Concerns:– “Just-in-time” delivery of fuel source– Unplanned outage or closure of the regional LNG facility– LNG shipping disruption or embargo– Loss of natural gas pipeline or compressor stations – Wholesale electricity’s exposure to natural gas price volatility
• Actual Experience:– Temporary shutdown of regional LNG facility – Post 9/11– Greater Northeast Cold Snap – January 14-16, 2004– Hurricanes Katrina & Rita - Fall of 2005
6 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Regional Response
• Developed robust rules and operating procedures to manage the electric system through short or long-term fuel supply or delivery constraints:
– Appendix H of Market Rule #1: “Operations During Cold Weather Conditions.”
– Operating Procedure No. 21: “Action During an Energy Emergency.”
• Added provisions in new markets to promote resource availability at time of need:
– Forward Capacity Market (FCM)– Locational Forward Reserve Market (LFRM)
• Created the Electric/Gas Operations Committee (EGOC)– Increased communications and coordination with the regional natural gas
sector via the Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
7 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Regional Response – cont’d
• Dual fuel conversions of single-fuel, gas-only power stations
• Newly proposed LNG terminals and expansion of regional natural gas grid
• Confirm existing practices are compliant with FERC Order 698: (electric & gas sector communications)
8 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Inter-Regional Response
• 3 ISO/RTO MOU on Natural Gas:– Transfer of knowledge between ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM– Coordinated operations & planning– Continuous pre & post-seasonal discussions– Sharing of information, studies & methodologies– Refinement of communications protocols and contact lists– Direct communications between Control Room and Gas Control– Table-Top exercises
9 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Long-Term Outlook
• ISO-NE Regional System Plan:– Annual 10-year plan– Loads, generation, transmission & demand-side– Fuel diversity, availability, deliverability
• ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis:– New England will continue to depend on natural gas– Interconnection queue predominately gas-fired– Relatively low air emissions– Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
10 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Long-Term Outlook – cont’d
• NERC LTRA– Resource adequacy assessment– Fuel supply & delivery assessment
• NPCC Triennial Review of Resource Adequacy– 5-year resource adequacy review (LOLE)– Comprehensive review every three years– Interim review every year
• Emerging Issue:– LNG Interchangeability
11 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Operable Capacity Analysis
• New England’s total installed capacity: 33,425 MW (winter)– 16,733 MW (50%) are capable of burning natural gas
(as either a startup, primary, secondary or stabilization fuel)– 8,587 MW (26%) are single-fuel, gas-only stations– 8,146 MW (24%) are fully functional, dual-fuel stations (gas/oil)
• 2007 Regional System Plan – Assessed the amount of gas-only resources required under winter peak conditions:
– 50/50 load:• 2007/08 ~ 450 MW • 2011/12 ~ 1,650 MW
– 90/10 load:• 2007/08 ~ 1,400 MW• 2011/12 ~ 2,700 MW
12 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Market Rules and Operating Procedures
• Appendix H of Market Rule #1: “Operations During Cold Weather Conditions”
– 7-Day Forecast Projects Cold Weather Conditions– Cold Weather Watch, Warning & Event– Cold Weather Event triggers rollback of wholesale electric market
timelines to align with natural gas nomination deadlines
• Operating Procedure No. 21: “Action During an Energy Emergency”
– Triggered by fuel supply shortage or deliverability constraint– Requests fuel switching to non-constrained fuels – Allows collection of fuel inventory data from generation fleet– Dispatch system to manage and preserve fuel inventories
13 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New Natural Gas Infrastructure
Source: Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
14 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
New Natural Gas Infrastructure
Source: Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
15 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Conclusions
• New England will continue to rely heavily on natural gas-fired generation (primary finding from ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis)
• Close coordination between electric and gas industries is required
• Markets promote unit availability at time of need – Dual fuel & firm fuel purchases
• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and demand-side resources will assist in diversifying the region’s fuel supply
• Newly proposed LNG terminals and expansion of the regional natural gas grid will improve the amount of natural gas supply
16 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Appendix
• 2007 Regional System Plan:– http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/rsp/index.html
• ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis:– http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/othr/sas/
index.html
• NERC LTRA– http://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html
• NPCC Triennial Review of Resource Adequacy:– http://www.npcc.org/adequacy.cfm
17 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
Appendix – cont’d
• Appendix H of Market Rule #1: Cold Weather Operations– http://www.iso-ne.com/regulatory/tariff/sect_3/
mr1_appendix_h_11-27-06.pdf
• Operating Procedure No. 21: Action During an Energy Emergency
– http://www.iso-ne.com/rules_proceds/operating/isone/op21/index.html
• Northeast Gas Association:– http://www.northeastgas.org
18 Natural Gas Dependency
In New England
QUESTIONS
Michael I. HendersonDirector – Regional Planning and Coordination
ISO New England Inc.(413) 535 – 4166