Negative Vote can improve all democracies

Negative Vote can improve all democracies

Mar. 21, 2016

Centre for Comparative and Public Law

Current Ballot

What is Negative Vote?

• Negative Vote is a vote against a candidate.

• Winner is the person who gets higher net positive votes

New Ballot

For

Against

For

Against

Why would Negative Vote improve democracy?

1. The right to say “nay” should be a basic right

Suppose there is only one candidate…

Sept. 2014 election in Taiwan

• “38 ％of village wardens, or 2970 persons ran unopposed

• Media report: “4-time winner Hou, suspected of forcing an opponent Ms. Yeh to withdraw from competition by claiming her butcher stall space is occupied illegally”

Allow only “yea” in elections is half democracy

Why would Negative Vote improve democracy?

2.Voter participation will increase

• Voters who do not like any candidate will come out to vote

• Some voters may feel it is easier to discern whom he dislikes than whom he likes

• The election result will more clearly reflect more people’s views

• Victor sees “nay” votes, can no longer arrogantly proclaim “I have majority popular support”

Supporting Rates for 2016 Presidential Election -Before Prompting Negative Vote

5.2

21.5

7.6

7.8

42.1

15.9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Soong, James C.Y. / Hsu, Hsing0ying

Tsai, Ing-wen / Chen, Chien-jen

Chu, Li-luan / Wang, Ju-hsuanTotal

decided

voters

65.7%

Supporting Rates for 2016 Presidential Election -Prompted and Assuming Negative Vote Is Adopted

-4.2

-6.2

-15.9

5

18.2

5.7

5.2

28.1

11.6

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Soong, James C.Y. / Hsu, Hsing0ying


Chu, Li-luan / Wang, Ju-hsuan

Negative Rates Supporting Rates

Total

decided

voters

71.1%

Supporting Rates for 2016 Presidential Election – With and Without Negative Vote

5.0%

[VALUE]

5.7%

1.0%

21.9%

-4.3%

5.2%

21.5%

7.6%

7.8%

42.1%

15.9%

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Soong, James C.Y. / Hsu, Hsin-ying


Chu, Li-luan / Wang, Ju-hsuan

Without Negative Vote (65.7% are decided) With Negative Vote (71.1% are decided)

= 11.6% supporting -15.9% negative

= 28.1% supporting - 6.2% negative

= 5.2% supporting - 4.2% negative

Gallup Market Research Corp., Taiwan (GMRC) Q1. vs Q4.

% of Will not vote / Undecided /

DK/RF has reduced by 5.4%

after Negative Vote introduced

Why would Negative Vote improve all democracies?

3. Reduce extremism Because each person has only one vote, basic party supporters will not change. The middle-electorate are more likely to cast negative votes and they will vote against extremists

• Extreme rhetoric will be reduced

• Society becomes more harmonious internally

• Less likely to war against its neighbors

Improve prospect for world peace

U.S. Presidential Election

Gallup poll shows D. Trump with 60% unfavorable rating, H. Clinton 52% unfavorable

Israel

Summary: why Negative Vote

1. Basic right to say “NAY”

2. Increase voter participation

3. Reduce extremism, improve harmony and world peace

Two-candidate scenario

A B

12 22 100 Net

34 (50.7%) 33 (49.3%) 67

-22 -11 -33

Three-candidate scenario

A B C

8 12 14 34 Net

30 22 15 67

-22 -10 -1 -33

Supporting Rates of 2016 Legislator Election in Hsinchu City – Before Prompting Negative Vote

5.4%

24.9%

7.1%

0.2%

14.5%

0.7%

0.1%

1.0%

22.4%

23.6%

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Wei, Dennis

Chiu, Handy

Wu, Shumin

Wang, Jung-Der

Ou, Charles

Ker, Chien-ming

Cheng, Chenchin

Gallup Market Research Corp., Taiwan (GMRC) Q1.

Total

decided

voters

62.5%

Supporting Rates of 2016 Legislator Election in Hsinchu City – Prompted and Assuming Negative Vote Is Adopted

-0.2%

-1.3%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.3%

-9.9%

-4.8%

7.7%

22.6%

7.2%

10.1%

0.5%

0.1%

0.3%

0.7%

17.8%

16.4%

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Wei, Dennis

Chiu, Handy

Wu, Shumin

Wang, Jung-Der

Zheng, Yaozheng

Ou, Charles

Ker, Chien-ming

Cheng, Chenchin


Gallup Market Research Corp., Taiwan (GMRC) Q3.

Total

decided

voters

62.5%

Supporting Rates of 2016 Legislator Election in Hsinchu City – With and Without Negative Vote

7.70%

22.60%

7.20%

-0.20%

8.80%

0.50%

-0.04%

0.20%

0.40%

7.90%

11.50%

5.40%

24.90%

7.10%

0.20%

14.50%

0.70%

0.10%

0%

1%

22.40%

23.60%

DK / RF

Undecided

Will not Vote

Wei, Dennis

Chiu, Handy

Wu, Shumin

Wang, Jung-Der

Zheng, Yaozheng

Ou, Charles

Ker, Chien-ming

Chen, Chenchin

Without Negative Vote (62.5% are decided) With Negative Vote (62.5% are decided)

Gallup Market Research Corp., Taiwan (GMRC) Q1. vs Q3.

= 16.4% supporting – 4.8% negative


Hsin Chu City Legislative Seat Election Result

Final What if?

36,309 11.2% -1.3% 9.9% Chiu

90,642 27.9% -9.9% 18.0% Ker

79,951 24.6% -4.8% 19.8% Cheng

Total voters: 324,395

Effective Votes: 219, 311 67.6% (Gallup poll 62.5%, +6.1%)

Did the wrong person get elected?

2016 Supporting Rates of Party Vote - Before Prompting Negative Vote

5.9

21.8

6.1

0.1

0.2

2.5

0.4

1.4

0.5

2.4

0.7

5.6

33.7

18.8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

DK/RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Tree Party

Faith and Hope League

New Power Party

MKT

Green Party / Social Democratic party

Non-Partisan Solidarity Union

TSU

NP

PFP

DPP

KMT

Total

decided

voters

66.2%

2016 Political Party support rate – with negative vote

-0.4

-0.4

-0.2

-2

-5.8

-17.3

6.4

18.3

5.8

0.1

0.1

1.5

0.5

0.6

0.3

0.9

0.2

3.3

22.6

13.5

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

DK/RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Tree Party


New Power Party

MKT

Green Party / Social Democratic party


TSU

NP

PFP

DPP

KMT


Total

decided

voters

69.5%

2016 Supporting Rates of Party Vote - With and Without Negative Vote

6.4

18.3

5.8

0.1

0.1

1.5

0.1

0.6

0.3

0.5

0.01

1.3

16.7

-3.8

5.9

21.8

6.1

0.1

0.2

2.5

0.4

1.4

0.5

2.4

0.7

5.6

33.7

18.8

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

DK/RF

Undecided

Will not vote

Tree Party


New Power Party

MKT

Green Party/Social Democratic party


TSU

NP

PFP

DPP

KMT

current voting system supporting rate (%)

negative vote supporting rate (%)




% of Will not vote /

Undecided / DK/RF has

reduced by 3.3% after

Negative Vote

Introduced

How to change the laws?

1. Legislative Yuan?

2. Plebiscite

Plebiscite thresholds

1. Phase 1: 100K petitions (0.5% of the electorate in the last Presidential election)

2. Phase 2: 1 million petitions (5% of the electorate in the last Presidential election, 6 months deadline)

3. Participation of half of current electorate (9,4m)

4. Over half approve (4,7m)

Agreement with “Amending the Law for Negatie Vote”

23.1 11.9

17.8 14.3 22.2

16.8

13.6

17.2 13.9

15.9 8.6 17.8

20.4

22.1 22 21.7 21.7 13.7

24.8 28.7 23.9 29.3 30.4

44.6

18 20.1 22.5 18.7 17 7.1

Total 30 to 39 yearsold

High school College /University

Central East

Agree very much

Somewhate agree

Somewhat disagree

Disagree very much

DK/RF

42.8

34.0

48.8 46.4

48.0 47.4 51.7

39.3 35.8

37.6 30.4

31.5

The road ahead: JFK : "We choose to go the Moon not

because it is easy but because it is hard"

A Thought for Hong Kong

• …….unpopularity climbs to more than 170,000. What this means is CY Leung is more than 100-times unpopular than US presidential candidate Donald Trump

• http://www.financetwitter.com/2016/02/facebook-angry-emoji-cy-leung-gets-170000-najib-razak-most-hated-in-asean.html

A Thought for Hong Kong

Could Negative Vote offer an interim solution that satisfies both

Beijing’s desire to control the nomination process and

Hong Kong’s popular demand for universal suffrage?

Example in China

• April 1999 Shangxi Province Zhou Li Village election, the ballot had three choices for each candidate：Agree、Basically Agree, and Disagree

• “Agree and Basically Agree” must exceed 50%

Thank you

Q & A

Q: Has this been tried in other countries? Why don’t we wait until the more advanced democracies try it first?

A: Why should Taiwan not lead?

Q & A

Q: Has this been tried in other countries? Why don’t we wait until the more advanced democracies try it first?

A: Why should Hong Kong not lead?

Q: How to avoid having a winner with very few gross positive vote?

A: Set minimum threshold? 10%?

Taiwan election laws already have many thresholds in the nomination process

Q & A

Q & A

Q: What if no one gets net positive votes?

A: Election must be re-held. Rejected candidates may not participate again.

Q: Isn’t that costly to the society ?

A1: Which is more costly, electing the wrong person or re-holding an election?

A2: The probability of this event is very low anyway

Q & A

Q: This will increase negative campaign

A: Just the opposite. The middle electorate will punish those who deploy smear tactics.

Q & A

Q: The smaller parties may be squeezed out

A: Any political party must consider whether its nominee will attract the negative votes from the middle electorate, whether it is a major party or a small party.

Q & A

Q: Winner should be decided by absolute majority (over 50%)

A: Any election that does not allow people to say “nay”, even if the winner gets over 50%, it is still a false majority.

If Negative Vote is allowed, the probability of any one getting over 50% is very low. A plurality is sufficient , the result will accurately reflect more people choice.

The Impact on Willingness to Vote after Negative Vote Introduced

Increase Willingness

28.1%

No difference 56.1%

Decrease willingness

5.3% DK/RF 10.1%

20 – 29 year-old: 36.9%

30 – 39 year-old: 36.1%

College / university: 32.8%

Master +: 30.4%

References

1. Boehm, G.A.W. (1976): One fervent vote against Wintergreen. Mimeograph.

2. Brams, S.J. (1977): When is it advantageous to cast a negative vote? In: Mathematical Economics and Game Theory:

Essays in Honor of Oscar Morgenstern (R. Henn, O. Moeschlin, eds.). Springer, Berlin, pp. 564–572.

3. Felsenthal, D.S. (1989): On combining approval with disapproval voting. Behavioral Science 34, 56–70.

4. Daniel Ferguson & Theodore Lowi (2001): Reforming American Electoral Politics: Let’s Take“No” for an Answer, 34 PS:

Pol. Sci. & Pol. 277, 277

5. George C. Leef (October 29, 2004) A Modest Proposal – Let’s Allow Negative Voting http://fff.org/explore-

freedom/article/modest-proposal-lets-negative-voting/

6. Jess Brewer, http://www.researchgate.net/post/Has_anyone_ever_tried_Negative_Votes

7. Michael Kang(2010): Voting as veto, Michigan Law Review, Vol. 108, No. 7

8. Jos´e Carlos R. Alcantud and Annick Laruelle: To approve or not to approve: this is not the only question. Universidad

de Salamanca, Spain, University of the Basque Country. (October 2012) https://mpra.ub.uni-

muenchen.de/41885/1/MPRA_paper_41885.pdf

http://fff.org/explore-freedom/article/modest-proposal-lets-negative-voting/











http://www.researchgate.net/post/Has_anyone_ever_tried_Negative_Votes

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41885/1/MPRA_paper_41885.pdf



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