Needham & Co Investors Conference

24
Needham & Co Investors Conference NYSE: NPTN January 2020

Transcript of Needham & Co Investors Conference

Needham & Co Investors ConferenceNYSE: NPTNJanuary 2020

2

Forward Looking Statements and Other Important CautionsThis presentation includes statements that qualify as forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include statements aboutthe following topics: future financial results, the Company’s market position and industry trends.

Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially. These forward-looking statements include statements about the followingtopics: future financial results, demand for the Company’s high-speed products, and the Company’s market position. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that couldcause the actual results to differ materially. Those risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, such factors as: the Company’s reliance on a small number of customers for a substantial portionof its revenues; market growth in China and other key countries; possible reduction in or volatility of customer orders or delays in shipments of products to customers; timing of customer drawdowns ofvendor-managed inventory; potential governmental trade actions; possible disruptions in the supply chain or in demand for the Company’s products due to industry developments; the ability of theCompany's vendors and subcontractors to supply or manufacture the Company's products in a timely manner; ability of the Company to meet customer demand; volatility in utilization of manufacturingoperations and manufacturing costs; reductions in the Company’s rate of new design wins, and/or the rate at which design wins go into production, and the rate of customer acceptance of new productintroductions; potential pricing pressure that may arise from changing supply or demand conditions in the industry; the impact of any previous or future acquisitions or divestitures of assets and relatedproduct lines; challenges involving integration of acquired businesses and utilization of acquired technology; the discontinuance or end of life of certain other products; market adoption, revenue growthand margins of acquired products; changes in demand for the Company's products; the impact of competitive products and pricing and alternative technological advances; the accuracy of estimatesused to prepare the Company's financial statements and forecasts; the timely and successful development and market acceptance of new products and upgrades to existing products; the difficulty ofpredicting future cash needs; the nature of other investment opportunities available to the Company from time to time; the Company’s operating cash flow; changes in economic and industry projections;a decline in general conditions in the telecommunications equipment industry or the world economy generally; and the effects of seasonality.

For further discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the documents the Company files with the SEC from time to time, including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for theyear ended December 31, 2018 and its Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2019. All forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and the Companydisclaims any duty to update such statements.

You may obtain these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.

Non-GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA Measures vs. GAAP Financial Measures

The Company’s non-GAAP and adjusted EBITDA measures exclude certain GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the Non-GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA financial measures to the most directlycomparable GAAP financial measures is provided in the financial schedules portion of its press release issued on October 31, 2019 and available in the Investor Relations section of the NeoPhotonicswebsite. Non-GAAP financial measures differ from GAAP measures with the same captions and may differ from non-GAAP financial measures with the same or similar captions that are used by othercompanies. As such, these non-GAAP measures should be considered as a supplement to, and not as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP.

The Company uses these non-GAAP financial measures to analyze its operating performance and future prospects, develop internal budgets and financial goals, and to facilitate period-to-periodcomparisons. NeoPhotonics believes that these non-GAAP financial measures reflect an additional way of viewing aspects of its operations that, when viewed with its GAAP results, provide a morecomplete understanding of factors and trends affecting its business.

3

NeoPhotonics: World leader in the highest speed optoelectronics

Financial and Operational Scale• TTM Revenues as of Q3’19 of ~$340 million• Growth with expanding margins despite Huawei denial

order• ~1,300 employees (USA, China, Japan, Canada)• ~500 Issued Patents

Deep Technology for Highest Speed Solutions• 64 Gbaud / 600Gbps coherent suite is shipping in volume • Unique ultra-narrow linewidth tunable laser enables highest speed and

farthest distance transmission• Completed initial shipments of 400G/400ZR coherent DCO modules• Enabled by silicon photonics modulator/receiver integration

For Network Equipment Transport | Metro | Data Center

SystemsLine Card | Daughter Card | Transponder

Telco Carriers/Mega Data Centers

Central Office / WebscaleData Center

Components & Modules

Market Ecosystem

Components and Transceivers

Optical ICs

Lasers, Drivers, Amplifiers, Modulators

SemiFabs

Products Customers

4

Investment Highlights

Aligned with Industry Leaders & Trends

• Aligned with the strongest system companies who depend on NPTN technologies.

• NeoPhotonics customer mix will be more diverse as the data center and module solutions grow in market penetration.

• 5G deployments now deploying; this will leverage high speed coherent.

Key Coherent Technology Leadership

• Only player with ultra-narrow line-width ECL lasers, key at data rates 400G/600G/800G.

• Shipping 64GBaud components for 400G/600G/1.2T; developments at 90-100GBaud and above

• Leadership in multiple materials for the highest speed and highest volume platforms, silicon photonics, indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs) and silicon germanium (SiGe).

Accelerating Growth in Cloud & Hyperscale DC

• 400G is even more important in Cloud and data center interconnect applications to support its explosive growth.

• 400G / 400ZR /600G / 800G are growth drivers for both Datacenter Interconnect and Telecom optical networks.

• NPTN is unique as a pure play in coherent optics today.

NPTN Advantages in the Marketplace Increase Dramatically as Data Rates Move to 400G and Beyond

27% CAGR: Cloud Data Center Traffic Growth (2016 - 21)*

600K 5G Base Stations Expected in 2020, 50% China

There are now more than500 Hyper-scale Data Centers

* Cisco Global Cloud Index (2016-2021)

5

Coherent Optics has Broad ApplicationsNPTN is Sampling Coherent Optics Solutions in Medical, Industrial and Automotive Markets

Coherent Telecom / DCI (25% CAGR)2019: $2.9B2023: $6.2B

Optics for 5G (72% CAGR)2019: $0.4B2023: $3.0B

Cloud Data Centers (20% CAGR) 2019: $3.1B2023: $6.0B

Coherent Medical Imaging2024: $1.8B

Coherent LIDAR for Autonomous Vehicles

2023: $1.2B

Coherent Industrial Metrology2023: $13B

Source: Various third-party industry reports and company estimates

Coh

eren

t Com

mC

oher

ent S

ensi

ng

6

OPTICAL PORTS(2020 Market: 630K ports)

Coherent Optical Ports Define Our Business

• NeoPhotonics’ tunable lasers have narrowest line width (ultra pure color)• High performance receivers decode phase and polarization

The Optics The Electronics

TRANSMITTERLaser Modulator

RECEIVERICR

Digital signal processor converts analog signals

to digital

DSP

Sold integrated, as modules, or as components

7

100G Remains A Substantial Market As Edge 10G100G

400G+ Port Growth Takes Off As DCI 100G400G+

400G+ Transceiver Revenue Grows Rapidly With DCI

Data Rates Trending

10G 100G at the Edge 100G 400G for Telco Metro/ LH distances of 400-2000km

400G 600G 800G for DCI distances of 80 km

Source: Company

0

100

200

300

400

500

20162017201820192020202120222023

Coherent 100G Ports

u

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

20162017201820192020202120222023

Coherent 400G+ Revenue

Source: Company Source: Company

Ports

(K)

Ports

(K)

Rev

enue

($M

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

20162017201820192020202120222023

Coherent 400G+ Ports

High speed coherent will outpace other technologies to deliver highest growth over the next five years

8

China Provincial 100G and Mobile 5G Roll-Outs

2020 China high speed port growth is forecast to be >15%; 5G roll-out accelerates

Huawei on “Entities List”• Huawei is on the “Entities List” as of May 21, 2019, prohibiting

shipment of goods subject to US EAR to Huawei and affiliates.• Our shipments are for non-EAR products only with EAR content

below de minimis limits.

• New tenders have been anticipated to continue buildout of China national backbone. These are now in process.– China Mobile’s phase-13 interprovincial backbone network new-build

tender includes 26K ports. Due Jan 2020.– Additional China Mobile tenders include new provincial buildouts for

28 provinces/cities.

• 5G wireless deployments are underway with additional cities; backhaul will be a driver for next several years.

EAR Actions• NeoPhotonics is committed to rigorously complying with United

States Export Regulations. We have implemented processes for ongoing full compliance to EAR

• To date, we have received a license for limited, not material, volumes of U.S. origin lasers.

9

NPTN Competitive Advantage In NLW Lasers Is Key for Highest Speeds

Laser Silicon

DESIGN• NeoPhotonics: A formidable

competitor in silicon• Less expensive• Silicon requires our high

power lasers

• Architecturally superiorlaser design

• Low phase noise / distortion• Narrow line width

No Need for Distorting Amplification

INTEGRATION

10

NeoPhotonics Leads In Volume At Each New Coherent Speed

ITLA Dual uITLA uITLA

NeoPhotonics Coherent Components for 100G to 800G

“Gold Box” Nano Nano ITLA

OIF Type I

OIF Type II

Mini-ICR

OIF uICR

OIF 40GHz uICR

Modulator (CDM) ICR + CDM (COSA)

2011-2019 Transport & Metro Coherent

• Cumulative ~2.0M Coherent Ports Shipped

• NPTN Shipped ~1.5M Ultra NLW Lasers

• NPTN Shipped ~650K ICRs

2011 2019

Ultra Narrow Linewidth Tunable Lasers

Coherent Receivers (ICR)

High Performance 400G/600G/800G Modulators

11

Leading with First Customer Shipments of New High Performance 400G / 400ZR Pluggable Modules

400ZR &800G OSFP

400ZRCFP2-DCO

400ZRQSFP-DD

400G/400ZR Module Solutions

Volume

Ultra-Narrow Linewidth Tunable Laser

64 GBaud Driver Modulator (CDM)

64 GBaud Micro ICR

Shipping

Nano-ITLA

64 GBaud COSA

Modulator+

Receiver

COMPONENT EVOLUTION

Sampling

Integrated COSA in SiPho plus Nano TL

DSPDSPDSP

12

DATADATA

C++ LASERTM and ModuleIllustration of Capacity Benefits

50GHz channel spacing

FEATURESWider bandwidth = more pipes (THz)Broader channel spacing = bigger pipes (GHz)→ C++ LaserTM enables more, bigger pipes

BENEFITSAllows data center or carrier to better leverage fiber plant investment Maximize capacity in existing cable / terminal equipment investment→ C++ TransceiversTM allow higher capacity per fiber

75GHz or 100GHz channel spacing

CAP

ACIT

YSP

ECTR

UM

1524nm 1572nm

Expanded C++TM Band6.0-6.5 THz

…C-Band

4 THz Width

1530nm 1562nm

1530nm 1568nm

…Extended C-Band

4.8 THz Width

More data flows at 400 Gbps requiring a “bigger pipe” (75 GHz or 100 GHz)

50 GHz bandwidth “pipes” are standard for 100/200Gbpsbut restrict data flow at 400Gbps

13

• High speed optical growth is driven by hyper-scale data center, metro and transition to coherent

• NPTN InP and SiPho high performance platforms are key for 400ZR, 600G and 800G

• Hyper-scale data centers are driving 400ZR, 600G, and 800G markets

• Coherent is the chosen technology for 80km and beyond optical networks

• 400G/400ZR is critical to Cloud and hyperscale data center interconnect with exploding data growth

• In three years time, coherent transceivers will be used inside data centers at 800G on single wavelengths

Key Trends

FINANCIAL UPDATENYSE: NPTN

As of December 2019

15

• Q3’19 showed continued strong execution, results were atthe high end of the range across all metrics.

• Revenue up 13% year-over-year, with strong DCI & Metroand continued good demand in China.

• Huawei demand for non-EAR products holding at 37% ofrevenue, but down from 46% in 2018.

• Non-GAAP gross margin at high end of estimate, on goodexecution and continued cost reductions

• Earnings per share of $0.11/share• $0.07 on ongoing business, at the high end of forecast,• $0.04 for unusual FX good news.

Q3’19 Financial Summary

Note: Q3’19 Non-GAAP gross margin excludes: stock-based compensation expense of $0.4M, amortization of $0.1M

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19Mid Est

Mill

ion

($)

Revenue & Gross Margin

Revenue Gross Margin %

16

Q3’19 P&L Performance (Non-GAAP)

(% of Revenue) Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q3’19 Target Model

Revenue $ $81.1M $81.7M $91.1M $79.4M $81.7M $92.4M 100%

Product Margin % 30% 32% 32% 27% 32% 34%

Mfg. Inefficiencies (7)% (6)% (1)% (2)% (5)% (4)%

Other COGS (3)% (2)% (2)% (3)% (1)% (1)%

Gross Margin % 20% 24% 29% 22% 26% 29% 35%

R&D 15% 15% 14% 17% 16% 14%

S&M 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3%

G&A 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7%

TOTAL OPEX 27% 27% 25% 30% 27% 24% 25%

Operating Margin (7)% (3)% 4% (8)% (1)% 5% 10%

EBITDA 4% 8% 12% (1)% 8% 15% 15%

Q3’19 Non GAAP Financial Measures do not include ($M): Stock-based compensation expense $3.0, Amortization $0.2

17

Q3’19 Balance Sheet

($ Millions) Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q3’19

Cash & Equivalents $68 $65 $77 $79 $74 $80

Working Capital 106 112 117 111 108 114

Total Assets $360 $333 $341 $344 $319 $325

Total Debt 68 57 58 56 48 48

Total Liabilities 190 172 180 192 171 175

Shareholders’ Equity 170 161 160 153 148 150

18

Outlook for Q4’19

• Q4’19 Non-GAAP gross margin continues to improve on execution & cost reductions, offset by initial impact of annual price reductions.

• Underutilization charges remain, related to laser fabs & EAR product lines

• Tariffs of U.S. fab products shipped into China of ~1% of gross margin

Notes: Q4’19 Non-GAAP outlook excludes $3.5M of anticipated stock-based compensation expense and $0.2M of amortization of acquisition related intangiblesEPS outlook assumes approximately 52.3 million fully diluted shares outstanding

GAAP Non-GAAP

Revenue $94M to $100M

Gross Margin 27% to 31% 28% to 32%

Operating Expenses $26 +/- $0.5M $23 +/- $0.5M

EPS ($0.02) to $0.08 $0.04 to $0.14

Demand signals from our customers remain positiveSome customer inventory build expected within outlook on perceived supply chain risksChina demand continues strong, mixed to 32 Gbaud/100G volume given non-EAR product availability.Gross margin and OpEx improvements reflect focus on profitable products and programs.

19

Our Priorities Are Clear

Operating financial performance• Focus on maximizing revenue and gross margin for every unit of production capacity

• Gain share with feature and performance differentiation plus supporting business model

• Insource key components for cost and time to market

• Continuous evaluations and projects to rationalize excess capacity & infrastructure

Products• Leadership high speed optical component solutions including leading coherent lasers and

leveraging integration

• Performance based product suite for high performance and speed (Indium Phosphide) and cost benefit (Active Silicon platform)

• A profitable, growth solutions business path supporting fast growing 400G modules

Markets• Expanding customer based serving ICPs with DCI solutions as well as telecom NEMs and

their supply chain partners with leading component solutions

Goal: We are pursuing a path to deliver consistent and sustainable profitability

See also:www.neophotonics.com/blog/andir.neophotonics.com

Reference

21

Serving Customers From a Global Footprint

Headcount by Geography

North America ~255

China (~400 contract) ~1,200

Japan ~260

ROW ~15

Total (~800 IDL) ~1,730

Comprehensive Vertical Integration for Multi-Material Hybrid Integration of Optical Solutions

San Jose, CA, USA

• PLC Fab• Corporate HQ

& Manufacturing

Fremont, CA, USA

• InP Fab• Lasers, arrays

Hachioji, Japan• All Functions• InP/GaAs Fab

Dongguan, China

• Volume Manufacturing Site

Shenzhen, China

• All Functions• Volume

Manufacturing Site

CM: Thailand• Volume

Manufacturing Site

CM: Taiwan • Volume

Manufacturing Site

CM: Japan• Volume

Manufacturing Site

Ottawa, Canada• R&D Site

Wuhan, China• R&D Site

22

Q3’19 P&L Performance (Non-GAAP)

($ Millions) Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q3’19

Revenue $ $81.1 $81.7 $91.1 $79.4 $81.7 $92.4

Product Margin $ 24.0 26.5 28.8 21.5 26.3 31.8

Mfg. Inefficiencies 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.7 4.4 3.5

Other COGS 4.8 4.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.5

Gross Margin $ 16.3 19.6 26.0 17.8 20.9 26.8

R&D 12.4 12.1 12.5 13.8 13.0 12.9

S&M 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.0 3.2

G&A 6.2 6.6 6.2 6.6 6.1 6.2

TOTAL OPEX 21.8 22.1 22.3 24.2 22.1 22.3

Operating Margin ($5.6) ($2.5) 3.7 ($6.5) ($1.2) $4.4

Adj. EBITDA $3.0 $6.2 $10.5 ($0.8) $6.8 $14.2

Q3’19 GAAP Financial Measures to Non-GAAP Reconciliation

GAAP Net Income $2.3M

Stock-based compensation expense 3.0

Amortization 0.2

Income tax effect of Non-GAAP

Adjustment & others ($0.1)

Non-GAAP Net Income $5.4M

23

Q3’19 P&L Performance (GAAP)

($ Millions) Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18 Q1’19 Q2’19 Q3’19

Revenue $ $81.1 $81.7 $91.1 $79.4 $81.7 $92.4

Product Margin $ 24.0 26.5 28.8 21.5 26.3 31.8

Mfg. Inefficiencies (5.8) (5.1) (1.0) (1.4) (4.4) (3.5)

Period Costs (2.0) (1.7) (1.8) (2.4) (1.0) (1.5)

Other Charges (0.8) (0.7) (3.4) (2.0) (5.2) (0.6)

Gross Margin $ 15.5 18.9 22.6 15.7 15.7 26.2

R&D 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.7 13.8 13.7

S&M 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.6 3.6 3.8

G&A 7.3 8.1 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.4

OtherCharges 0.8 2.0 3.9 0.6 (0.7) -

TOTAL OPEX 25.2 27.6 29.2 27.7 23.9 24.9

Operating Margin $(9.8) $(8.7) $(6.6) $(11.9) $(8.2) $1.3

www.neophotonics.com