NCEP for NCEPers
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Transcript of NCEP for NCEPers
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NCEP for NCEPers
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
December 5, 2005
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
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Outline
• Define NOAA/NWS/Forecast Process• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction
Services• Strategic Plan• Annual Operating Plan• Budget/GPRA Measures• Computing summary• 2005/2006 Milestones• Future Considerations
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The NOAA Prediction Process
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NWS Organization
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Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond & Feedback
Respond & Feedback
The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center
FeedbackFeedback
DistributeDistribute
LocalOfficesLocal
OfficesCentral
GuidanceCentral
GuidanceProcessProcess
ObserveObserve
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,
Emergency Managers, Air Quality and Environmental
Agencies, …
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Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services
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History of NCEP
• 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed
• 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau– AD, DD,FD,ExFD
• 1974 – Move to WWB• 1979 – CAC created• 1984 – additions
– Computer Operations from NOAA– NHC– NSSFC
• 1995 – NCEP created– NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC,
CPC, AWC, SPC (move to
Norman in ’97), TPC– SEC becomes NCEP’s
9th center (remains an OAR lab)
• 2004 – SEC enters NWS
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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products
Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.
Space Environment Center
Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.
Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service
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What Does NCEP Do?
Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
“From the Sun to the Sea”
• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts
• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual
• El Nino – La Nina Forecast
• Weather Forecasts to Day 7
• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather
• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)
• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings
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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
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Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather
Weather Prediction Products
Climate PredictionProducts
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NCEP Partners
• NOAA Mission Goal Teams and Line Offices• NWS Forecast Offices• Academia• International Organizations• Military• Other Federal Agencies• Private Meteorologists• Research Laboratories• State and Local Emergency Managers• Wild Fire Agencies (Federal/State)• Technology Vendors• Media
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Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES
NOAA Strategic Plan
NWS Strategic Plan
NCEP Strategic Plan
NCEP Annual Operating Plan
NCEP Technical Operating Plan
Executive Summaries
Performance Plans
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NCEP’s Strategies and Objectives to Meet NOAA’s Service, Delivery and Improvement Goals
83%EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC
• Produce and Deliver the Best Products and Services
• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances
• Exercise Global Leadership • Focus the NCEP Organizational Culture • Effectively Manage NCEP Resources
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NOAA Strategic Plan GoalsNCEP Contribution
Climate
Weather & Water
Commerce & Transportation
Ecosystems
7%CPC
10%AWCOPC
83%EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC
NCEP Contributes to 3 of NOAA’s Strategic Plan Goals and 8 Separate Programs
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NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals
GPRA
NWS GOALS
NCEP GOALS
KEY DELIVERABLES
MILESTONES
BUDGET ALLOCATION
ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN
EXECUTIVESUMMARIES
NTOPELEMENTS
NOAA GOALS
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GPRA Scores
Performance Measure
Actual
2002
Actual
2003
Goal/Actual
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Goal/Actual
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Goal
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Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)
124 nm 107 nm 129 nm/94 nm 128 nm/NA 111km
Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”
.30 .29 .25/.29 .27/.30 .28
U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)
18 17 21/17 18/18 18
NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures
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Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesMilestonesResources ($$/People)
NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP)
Internal Planning Timeline
Nov.Dec.
LateSept.
MidSept
Early Sept. Aug.
Jan.NCOReview
Dec.EMCReview
NTOPS1st draft
Final NTOP and Annual Operating Plan When Budget is Allocated
ExecutiveSummary
Draft Annual
OperatingPlan
Identify Agency
Milestones
Internal CoordinationCorporate Board Planning Meeting
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NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding
0102030405060708090
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FY2000
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
Fiscal Year
$ in
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$68.2$62.0
$54.8$50.1
$80.1$88.2
Weather and Climate Supercomputer
Supercomputer Backup
SEC Integration
Rent
Dropsondes/EMC Adjustments
Labor ATBs
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NCEP Budget FactsFY2005 OR&F vs. PAC
OR&FPAC$61.8M
70%
$26.4M
30%
Weather and Climate Supercomputer
Supercomputer Backup
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NCEP Budget FactsFY 2005 Allocations by Center ($K)
Center FTEs Labor Non-labor Total Other NOAA LOs
Reimb TOTAL
OD 9 $1,037.1 $4,697.7 $5,734.8 $0.0 $11.0 $5,745.8
NCO 75 $7,855.3 $29,837.2 $37,692.5 $550.0 $144.7 $38,387.2
EMC 47 $5,543.2 $2,953.8 $8,497.0 $7,066.4 $1,281.0 $16,844.4
HPC 42 $4,769.6 $77.9 $4,847.5 $25.0 $0.0 $4,872.5
OPC 25 $2,665.7 $80.2 $2,745.9 $157.5 $0.0 $2,903.4
CPC 50 $5,290.8 $549.8 $5,840.6 $2,401.6 $598.4 $8,840.6
AWC 54 $5,928.0 $726.9 $6,654.9 $570.0 $585.7 $7,810.6
SPC 32 $3,640.7 $561.0 $4,201.7 $0.0 $0.0 $4,201.7
TPC 41 $4,712.3 $457.2 $5,169.5 $239.0 $0.0 $5,408.5
SEC 51 $5,264.4 $1,523.2 $6,787.6 $600.0 $630.7 $8,018.3
TOTAL 426 $46,707.1 $41,464.9 $88,172.0 $11,609.5 $3,251.5 $103,033.0
Other Funding Sources: $14,861K
NWS Base
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Computing Summary
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Computing Capability
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
$26.4M/Year $26.4M/Year InvestmentInvestment
•Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005
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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
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RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
RUC GFS Anl Hur
GFS FcstNAM Fcst
NAM Anl Waves
SREF GENS
Climate Forecast System
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Product Generation Performance
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AOP Milestones
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AOP 2005 Milestones
•Weather
•Hurricane Model resolution increase 18 9 km
•Global Model resolution increase 55 35 km
•Rapid Update Cycle resolution increase 20 13 km
•Global Ensemble upgrade
•North American Meso-Scale upgrade
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AOP 2005 Milestones
•Climate•Additional daily run of Climate Forecast System (from 1 2/day)
•Air Quality•Expand Air Quality Forecast from Northeast U.S. to Eastern U.S.
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AOP 2005 Milestones
• Products– Produce Day 3 – 8 experimental Graphical
Forecast Chart Depicting Likelihood of Critical Fire Weather Conditions
– Develop Operational Product of Ensemble Tracks Product for Tropical Cyclones
– Extend UV Outlooks to 72 Hours– Issue Operational Significant Weather Medium
and High Level Chart in BUFR Format
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AOP 2005 Milestones
• Outreach– Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop– Conduct Three Introduction to Hurricane Preparedness
Workshops for Local Emergency Managers– Conduct Collaborative Spring Forecast Experiment to
Evaluate WRF– Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean
Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Atlantic Coast, Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week
– Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada
– Provide Training for 10 Meteorologists at International Desks
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AOP FY2006 Milestones•Ocean
•Wave Model•10 member Ensemble Wave model – Spring (06)
•Great Lakes Wave Forecast – Summer (06)
•Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)
• HYCOM-based, 1/12 degree North Atlantic Basin – Fall (05)
Chesapeake Bay
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AOP FY2006 Milestones
•Weather•Global Forecast System (GFS) – Spring (06)
•GSI data assimilation
•Apply hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate model
•WRF – Spring (06) •WRF based North America Mesoscale Run (Replaces Eta Model)
•GFDL Hurricane Model – Spring (06)•Begin parallel runs of Hurricane WRF system
•Complete Implementation of 6 WRF Members into the SREF System - Winter (05)
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AOP FY2006 Milestones
•Products•Execute Full Implementation of Watch-by-County
•Implement Operational Winter Weather Desk Enhancements
•Implement Gridded Wave Forecasts for Coastal and Offshore Zones in Support of NDFD
•Issue Experimental Graphical AIRMET
•Develop Experimental Probababilisitc Guidance for Occurrence of Lightning for Fire Weather Forecasts
•Implement Experimental Week-2 Outlooks for North America including Canada, Alaska and Mexico and U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands
•Develop Outlooks for Monthly and Seasonal Degree-Day Totals Based on CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook
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AOP FY2006 Milestones
•Outreach•Organize and Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week
•Provide Training for 10 Visiting Scientists at International Training Desks
•Conduct Spring Forecast Experiment through SPC's Hazardous Weather Testbed
•Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Gulf Coast
•Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada in Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting
•Conduct Two Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Coastal States
•Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop
•Lead the 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic & Prediction Workshop
•Participate in Three Trade Shows and Two Safety Seminars in Support of Marine Outreach Program
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Future Considerations
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Expanding “Environmental” Services• Air Quality Prediction
(with the EPA)– Expanded coverage in 2005
• Ocean Modeling Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model– U.S. Ocean Commission
Report– Plan submitted to NOAA
Science Advisory Board• Full incorporation of Space
Weather Services
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Expanding “Environmental” Services
• Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events– Hurricane intensity– Snowstorms – Severe Weather– Fire Weather– Floods
• Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System: need to improve GPRA score!– Climate Test Bed to accelerate improvements in seasonal climate prediction– Climate Forecast System, a fully coupled climate prediction model, was
implemented in August, 2004. In FY05, the number of ensemble members doubled from 30 per month to 60 per month. Doubling of horizontal resolution to ~105 km is expected by ‘08
(cont.)
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Linkages to Outside Community• International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO-sponsored climate
programs• “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities
to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations
• Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products
• Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”)
• Consolidation of NOAA severe weather research and prediction at the OU National Weather Center in FY06
• World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)
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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800 Federal employees,
contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Begin move to new facility September ’07 and complete by Feb ‘08
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Background Slides
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GlobalForecast System
Climate Forecast System
GFDLHurricane
NOAH Land Surface Model
Dispersion
Air Quality
Model Dependencies:Basis for How Predictions are Made
Forecast
AviationHourly Forecast
GLOBAL
DATA
Ocean
Ocean
North American Mesoscale Model
(NAM)
Ocean
Short-RangeEnsemble
Medium RangeEnsemble(NAEFS)
Severe Weather
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Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast
Models
• Cryosphere
• Atmosphere • Ocean
• Land
• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers
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Long-Term Performance Gains
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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors
Advances RelatedTo USWRP
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Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores
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HPC Forecasters Add Value
Models provide basis for improvement Correlations
Of HPC with:
Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85
(DOC GPRA goal)
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Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 Hrs
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
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Forecast Period (hours)
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48In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill
Day 7
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Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
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September 2005 Performance Updates
Cumulative Actual
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Status:
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September 2005 Performance Updates
Cumulative Actual
29 33 36 37 35 34 34 32 30 29 29 29
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September 2005 Performance Updates
Status:
NCEP Global Model Performance 500 mb Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Comparison
Northern Hemisphere
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September 2005 Performance Updates
↑Good
Status:
NCEP Global Model Performance 500 mb Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Comparison
Southern Hemisphere
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Backup Slides
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Summary
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Summary• Strive to continue ongoing improvements
• Develop partnerships– JCSDA– WRF– NOAA Ocean Plan– ESMF
• Expand Collaborative Forecast Process: NCEP – RFC – WFO – CSWU
• Apply ensembles and forecaster input to probabilisitic forecast products
Cou
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Daily Satellite Observation Count
2002
2003-4
2005
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Service Center Activities
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• WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR formatformat
• New Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDSNew Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDS• Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports
filed through AWC webpagefiled through AWC webpage• Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of
Collaborative Convective Forecast ProductsCollaborative Convective Forecast Products• Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented
on NOAA websiteon NOAA website• Massive change to WMO headers of AWC productsMassive change to WMO headers of AWC products
Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather Center
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Climate Prediction Center
• Initiated Climate Test Bed infrastructure– Wayne Higgins –
Director
• CTB will accelerate the transfer of research and development into operational climate forecasts and products
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Surface Analysis GFS 0600 UTC 03OCT2005
UWPBL4.1 Surface Analysis 0657 UTC 03OCT2005
12.5km QuikSCAT 0740 UTC 03October2005
GOES IR Satellite Image 0745UTC 03October2005
Ocean Prediction Center
• New automated technique developed by U of Wash using their boundary layer model to construct surface pressure analysis from Quikscat winds and available observations
GFS analysis U of Wash technique
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Storm Prediction Center
• Now producing experimental 3-8 day graphical fire weather outlooks
• A short discussion will be added to the graphic when it becomes a Public Experimental Product (with PDD & comment period) in Spring 2006.
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Tropical Prediction Center
• Experimental tropical cyclone surface wind speed probability– Tropical storm winds
(> 39 mph)
– > 58 mph winds
– Hurricane winds (>74 mph)
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Space Environment Center• SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9
– Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea”
• Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth
• Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.