NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” …...Sep 08, 2020 · WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR...
Transcript of NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” …...Sep 08, 2020 · WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR...
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Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
August 2020
Danelle Kosmal and Kaleigh Theriault
Nielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice
NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” NORMAL
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Navigating
the next
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THE NIELSEN TEAM PRESENTING TODAY
DANELLE KOSMALVice President
Beverage Alcohol Lead
KALEIGH THERIAULTClient Manager
Beverage Alcohol
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OFF PREMISE• Food (Total US)
• Drug (Total US)
• Mass Merchandiser (e.g. Target)
• Walmart
• Dollar (e.g. Family Dollar, Dollar General)
• Select Warehouse Club Stores (Sam’s, BJ’s)
• Whole Foods Market
• Military Exchanges (AAFES, Nexcom, MCG, CGX)
• Convenience (Total US)
• Liquor* (selected geographies/retailers)
• 7 geographic markets + key Liquor chains •
• Wine.com
• Ecommerce (through Rakuten)
• Direct-to-Consumer reports
ON PREMISE
• TOTAL US
• Eating (Restaurants) vs. Drinking (Bars)
• Chains vs. Independents
• 3 Years of History
• 9 Census Divisions
• Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, LA, NYC
• NOW AVAILABLE (Beer): Miami, Seattle, San Francisco, Tampa; State lines; more product granularity
• Also available from NCGA:
• Guest check level analysis
• Daypart/week analysis
• Key Holiday/event analysis
xA
OC
NIELSEN RETAIL MEASUREMENT TODAY
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A SNAPSHOT OF WHERE WE WERE…
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EARLY 2020 BEVERAGE ALCOHOL LANDSCAPE
EXPERIENCE
Authenticity
Flavors
Blurring
WELLNESS
Healthier Lifestyles
Mindful Drinking
Low/no alc
E-commerce/Delivery
Packaging
Innovation
CONVENIENCE
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PRE-COVID 19 OFF PREMISE TRENDS
Dollar Growth Rates: 52 Weeks ending 02/29/20
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
BEER/FMB/CIDER
+3.8%
WINE
1.1%
SPIRITS
+5.4%
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PRE-COVID ON PREMISE TRENDS
Nielsencga.com 8
+5.5% +0.5% +3.0%
+4.0% +1.2% +2.8%
+5.8% +0.4% +2.9%
Beer Wine Spirits
Volume % chg vs YA
+0.7% -0.1% +1.9%
+0.1% +0.6% +1.9%
+0.8% -0.2% +1.8%
YTD
L52
YTD
L52
L4
L4
Source: Nielsen CGA on premise data – volume, 9L EQ, rolling 52/12 w/e 02/22/2020 vs YA
Value % chg vs YA
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Are the off premise gains enough to make up for the on premise losses?
$41.2 BILLION+$8.6 BILLION vs YAGTotal offline & online alcohol sales in the past 18 weeks across Nielsen measured off-premise channels
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels (Total US xAOC+Convenience+Liquor); + e-commerce Rakuten
measurement (COVID w/e March 7, 2020 thru August 1, 2020; Rakuten thru July 4, 2020) vs. Prior Year
TODAY WE ARE OPERATING IN UNCHARTERED TERRITORYA surge in off premise alcohol sales since early March
as on premise shuttered
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2.1%
59.7%
15.7%
3.5%
53.0%
23.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)
Total Fast Moving Consumer Goods Alcohol
FUELED BY ON PREMISE CLOSURES, OFF PREMISE ALCOHOL GROWTH OUTPACES CONSUMER GOODS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
PR
E C
OV
ID
CO
VID
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SPIRITS LEADS OFF PREMISE GROWTH, FOLLOWED BY WINE, WITH BEER TRAILING
19.0%
25.9%
33.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)
Total Beer/FMB/Cider Total Wine Total Spirits
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
PR
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OV
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CO
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YTD
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WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR BEV ALC GROWTH TO GET TO FLAT?
73% growth required in off-premise
to offset on-premise declines
assuming…
• On Premise = 45% of total industry
• Sales down -90%
22% growth required in off-premise
to offset on-premise declines
assuming…
• On Premise = 20% of total industry
• Sales down -90%
VOLUME DOLLARS
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Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 thru August 1, 2020; pre COVID 52 w/e Feb 29, 2020
3.8%
1.1%
5.4%
19.0%
25.9%
33.9%
Beer/FMB/Cider Wine Spirits
Dollar % change vs Prior Year
PRE COVID COVID
0.8%
-1.9%
2.9%
15.4%
21.1%
28.5%
Beer/FMB/Cider Wine Spirits
Volume % change vs Prior Year
PRE COVID COVID
22%
73%
Full Lockdown threshold to get back to ‘flat’ total industry growth
DOES OFF PREMISE GROWTH MAKE UP FOR ON PREMISE LOSSES?
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WINE & SPIRITS OVERALL ASSORTMENT STEADY; BUT CRAFT BEER LONG TAIL REDUCTIONS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels (xAOC + Conv + Liquor)
-15
-10
-5
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5
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% change in # of UPC’s selling by week vs year ago
Wine Spirits Beer Craft Beer
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THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT NOW
OVERALL COMMENTS
Safety – health & hygiene #1 consideration
Massive shifting of “WHERE”• On to Off Premise; a greater ‘homebody’ economy
• ON the premises to more delivery/take-out
• E-commerce/digital explosion
Consumers act/react differently
• Economic impacts
• Health related behavior
• Constrained vs Insulated spenders?
• Younger vs older?
• Where do they live?
Premiumization/trading up
muddier & more nuanced now
In mainstream channels – YES, but in highly premium channels – NO
On Premise trading down?
On to Off Premise shifting down in ‘spend’
Overall Consumption Likely in the flat range overall; Beer share losses accelerating
Who is your consumer?
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Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
SPIRITS
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Ttl Spirits RTD's Tequila Cordials Cognac Am Whsky Jap.Whsky
Gin IrishWhsky
Rum C'ndWhsky
Vodka Scotch Brandy
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
SPIRITS GROWTH LED BY RTD’S, TEQUILA, COGNAC, AM WHISKEY
1.4% 11.5% 7.1% 5.3% 17.2% 0.3% 2.9% 7.7% 8.7% 24.8% 5.7% 1.7%3.4%100%
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Spirits Value Mid Price Premium Ultra
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars) - Price per Eq 750 mlTotal U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
SPIRITS GROWTH LED BY HIGHER PRICE TIERS
8.4% 27.1% 42.1% 22.3%100%
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Total Spirits 750 ML 1.75 L 1L 375 ML 50 ML 200 ML 100 ML
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
1.75 L DECELERATING, WHILE GROWTH OF SMALLER SIZES ACCELERATING
46% 34% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1%100%
20.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WINE
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Table WineGlass
$0-$3.99 $4-$7.99 $8-$10.99 $11-$14.99 $15-$19.99 $20-$24.99 $25+
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars) - Table Wine (Glass); Price per Eq 750 mlU.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
HIGH PREMIUMIZATION LEVEL IN OFF PREMISE
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 8/1/2020)
23%4% 24% 25% 5% 6%12%100%
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Total Wine 750 ml 1.5LGLASS
3L BOX 5L BOX 187ML(ANY)
TETRA CANS 4L 375ML(GLASS)
3L(GLASS)
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
LARGER SIZE GROWTH DECELERATING
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 8/1/2020)
100% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0.6%72% 13% 1% 0.4% 0.4%
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GROWTH OF CANNED WINE AND WINE COCKTAILS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 7/11/2020)
71.3%
43.0%
68.6%
129.8%
45.9%
91.5%
Canned Wine Wine-Based Cocktails
Pre-COVID Restricted Living Re-Opening
0.8%0.7%
0.8%
1.2%1.3%
1.9%
Canned Wine Wine-Based Cocktails
Pre-COVID Restricted Living Re-Opening
Dollar % Change vs Year AgoDollar Share of Wine
24This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
BEER
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COVID-19 TREND SHIFTS FOR BEER/FMB/CIDER
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels, week ending 07/11/20; pre-COVID share time period (13 weeks ending 2/29/20)
Large Sizes Premiumization Big Brands Still Trending
• Every pack size smaller
than 12 packs losing
share to 12 packs and
larger
• Dollar share shift of
5.1% to large packs
• Medium term
• Swing of 5.6% dollar
share from below
premium & premium
segments to above
premium
• Medium term
• Hard seltzers
• Beyond Beer (tea, coffee,
RTD)
• Non and low alcohol
• Most Beyond Beer
segments growing at faster
pace than pre-COVID, but
non-alc growing at slightly
slower pace
• Among top 20 beer
brands, every brand
is growing
• Pre-COVID nearly half
were in decline
• Short term
Indicates trend unique to COVID
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ALL BEER SEGMENTS UP IN DOLLAR GROWTH
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
-10
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TotalCategory
NonAlcoholic
HardTea
SuperPremium
MXImports
FMB(xSeltzer)
Craft BelowPremium
PremiumLight
Cider
52 w/e February 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-Opening
$ Share Chg
COVID YTD vs YA0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -1.8 -2.1 -0.1
Share losses for Premium Light, Below Premium, Craft , and Mexican Imports
Beer Segments: Off Premise Dollar Growth vs Year Ago
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HARD SELTZER METEORIC RISE DURING COVID
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
$1.9
billionHard Seltzer dollars in
Nielsen off premise
channels during
COVID weeks
+5.7%
gainsDollar share gains during
COVID weeks compared
to same weeks last year
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HARD SELTZERS SURPASSED $3B ANNUALLY
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
Wine and spirit-based hard seltzers represent additional $175MM annually (+91% vs YAG)
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Weekly Hard Seltzer Dollar Sales
Current year 1 YAG 2 YAG 3 YAG 4 YAG
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THE HARD SELTZER BUYER DURING COVID
29%
25%
28%
18%
03/01/20 - 04/25/20
Beer Wine Spirits FMB/Ciders
$ Share of Alcohol during COVID March/April
vs Year Ago
NEW BUYERS = Purchased in March/April 2020 and NOT during period of 52 weeks ending February 2020
Source: Nielsen Homescan Premium
44% of hard seltzer buyers during
COVID months of March/April were
NEW to Hard Seltzer
44%FMB/Cider
Spirits
Wine
Beer
+6.5%
+3.1%
-4.0%
-5.6%
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20
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Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
ECOMMERCE
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BEV ALCOHOL ONLINE SALES CONTINUE TO GROW (FASTER THAN ANY OTHER CPG DEPARTMENT)
6%21%
53%23% 26% 27% 17% 27% 33% 36% 32% 25% 23% 25% 22% 26% 20% 12%13%
74%
284%
352%
476% 478%
525%551%
375%410%
300%325% 315%
247%220%
204%241%
307%
W/E 3/7 W/E3/14
W/E3/21
W/E3/28
W/E 4/4 W/E4/11
W/E4/18
W/E4/25
W/E 5/2 W/E 5/9 W/E5/16
W/E5/23
W/E5/30
W/E 6/6 W/E6/13
W/E6/20
W/E6/27
W/E 7/4
In Store Online
Source: Nielsen Total US xAOC+Convenience+Liquor; Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Total Alcohol - Instore vs Online Growth Trend
Dollar % Change vs. Prior Year
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ONLINE ALCOHOL STILL DOMINATED BY WINE, BUT SPIRITS GROWING FASTEST
Source: Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
476%
273% 274%
Spirits Wine Beer
Alcohol Ecommerce Dollar % Change vs Year Ago
COVID Weeks Thru 7/4/2020
21.1% 69.0% 11.2%
+6.1 -6.1 -1.0
Share
Share
Change
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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
7/2
7/2
01
9
8/1
0/2
01
9
8/2
4/2
01
9
9/7
/20
19
9/2
1/2
01
9
10/5
/201
9
10/1
9/2
01
9
11/2
/201
9
11/1
6/2
01
9
11/3
0/2
01
9
12/1
4/2
01
9
12/2
8/2
01
9
1/1
1/2
02
0
1/2
5/2
02
0
2/8
/20
20
2/2
2/2
02
0
3/7
/20
20
3/2
1/2
02
0
4/4
/20
20
4/1
8/2
02
0
5/2
/20
20
5/1
6/2
02
0
5/3
0/2
02
0
6/1
3/2
02
0
6/2
7/2
02
0
Mill
ion
s
Alcohol E-Commerce Trend
Dollars Buyers
Source: Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Dollars Buyers
COVID
ALCOHOL ECOMM GAINS DRIVEN LARGELY BY NEW BUYERS; 35-44 SHARE OF ONLINE $ GROWING FASTEST
13%
15%
22%
23%
22%
5%
11%
16%
22%
29%
19%
5%
65+
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-35
21-24
% of Dollars Purchasing Alcohol Online by Age Group
COVID Pre-COVID
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Source (Nielsen): Amazon: 52 weeks thru 6-20-2020; Wine.com (thru Q2 2020) (Dollars)
:Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Of the top 12 Nielsen Retail Off Premise brands,
how many of those are also in the top 12 at…
E-comm
1 7 6
E-comm
3 6 2
$30MM annually in Bev Alc; +250% 16 wks thru 6/20/2020 vs YAG
NOT ALL ECOMMERCE RETAILERS ARE THE SAME
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DtC WINE SHIPMENTS GROWTH REBOUNDS AS TASTING ROOMS SHUTTER, BUT PRICE IMPACTED
Source: Nielsen in collaboration with
15.3%
8.9%
4.7%
1.2%
40%
15.5%
11.6%
7.4%
2.7%
20%
2017 2018 2019 Jan + Feb 2020 Mar + Apr + May + June 2020
Direct to Consumer Wine Shipments (Total U.S.)Percent change vs YAG
Volume Value
Latest 12 mos: $3.45 Billion
CO
VID
Avg price vs YAG: -$5.67
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CLOSING THOUGHTS• The true economic fallout could very likely still be ahead of us
• With “homebody” economy, off premise presents biggest
opportunities, for now
• Consumers trading up, but premiumization more nuanced
• Prepare for pivots in pricing/promotion, as spending wallets
adjust to income constraints
• Maximize digital communication and e-commerce channels
• Size importance of key consumer groups to your business
• Be granular (geography, timeliness) to quickly act on local
demand signals
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.