NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” …...Sep 08, 2020 · WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR...
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1 Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. August 2020 Danelle Kosmal and Kaleigh Theriault Nielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” NORMAL
Transcript of NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” …...Sep 08, 2020 · WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR...
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Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
August 2020
Danelle Kosmal and Kaleigh Theriault
Nielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice
NAVIGATING BEVERAGE ALCOHOL THROUGH THE “NEXT” NORMAL
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Navigating
the next
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THE NIELSEN TEAM PRESENTING TODAY
DANELLE KOSMALVice President
Beverage Alcohol Lead
KALEIGH THERIAULTClient Manager
Beverage Alcohol
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OFF PREMISE• Food (Total US)
• Drug (Total US)
• Mass Merchandiser (e.g. Target)
• Walmart
• Dollar (e.g. Family Dollar, Dollar General)
• Select Warehouse Club Stores (Sam’s, BJ’s)
• Whole Foods Market
• Military Exchanges (AAFES, Nexcom, MCG, CGX)
• Convenience (Total US)
• Liquor* (selected geographies/retailers)
• 7 geographic markets + key Liquor chains •
• Wine.com
• Ecommerce (through Rakuten)
• Direct-to-Consumer reports
ON PREMISE
• TOTAL US
• Eating (Restaurants) vs. Drinking (Bars)
• Chains vs. Independents
• 3 Years of History
• 9 Census Divisions
• Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, LA, NYC
• NOW AVAILABLE (Beer): Miami, Seattle, San Francisco, Tampa; State lines; more product granularity
• Also available from NCGA:
• Guest check level analysis
• Daypart/week analysis
• Key Holiday/event analysis
xA
OC
NIELSEN RETAIL MEASUREMENT TODAY
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A SNAPSHOT OF WHERE WE WERE…
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EARLY 2020 BEVERAGE ALCOHOL LANDSCAPE
EXPERIENCE
Authenticity
Flavors
Blurring
WELLNESS
Healthier Lifestyles
Mindful Drinking
Low/no alc
E-commerce/Delivery
Packaging
Innovation
CONVENIENCE
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PRE-COVID 19 OFF PREMISE TRENDS
Dollar Growth Rates: 52 Weeks ending 02/29/20
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
BEER/FMB/CIDER
+3.8%
WINE
1.1%
SPIRITS
+5.4%
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PRE-COVID ON PREMISE TRENDS
Nielsencga.com 8
+5.5% +0.5% +3.0%
+4.0% +1.2% +2.8%
+5.8% +0.4% +2.9%
Beer Wine Spirits
Volume % chg vs YA
+0.7% -0.1% +1.9%
+0.1% +0.6% +1.9%
+0.8% -0.2% +1.8%
YTD
L52
YTD
L52
L4
L4
Source: Nielsen CGA on premise data – volume, 9L EQ, rolling 52/12 w/e 02/22/2020 vs YA
Value % chg vs YA
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Are the off premise gains enough to make up for the on premise losses?
$41.2 BILLION+$8.6 BILLION vs YAGTotal offline & online alcohol sales in the past 18 weeks across Nielsen measured off-premise channels
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels (Total US xAOC+Convenience+Liquor); + e-commerce Rakuten
measurement (COVID w/e March 7, 2020 thru August 1, 2020; Rakuten thru July 4, 2020) vs. Prior Year
TODAY WE ARE OPERATING IN UNCHARTERED TERRITORYA surge in off premise alcohol sales since early March
as on premise shuttered
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2.1%
59.7%
15.7%
3.5%
53.0%
23.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)
Total Fast Moving Consumer Goods Alcohol
FUELED BY ON PREMISE CLOSURES, OFF PREMISE ALCOHOL GROWTH OUTPACES CONSUMER GOODS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
PR
E C
OV
ID
CO
VID
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SPIRITS LEADS OFF PREMISE GROWTH, FOLLOWED BY WINE, WITH BEER TRAILING
19.0%
25.9%
33.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)
Total Beer/FMB/Cider Total Wine Total Spirits
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
PR
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OV
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CO
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YTD
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WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR BEV ALC GROWTH TO GET TO FLAT?
73% growth required in off-premise
to offset on-premise declines
assuming…
• On Premise = 45% of total industry
• Sales down -90%
22% growth required in off-premise
to offset on-premise declines
assuming…
• On Premise = 20% of total industry
• Sales down -90%
VOLUME DOLLARS
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Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 thru August 1, 2020; pre COVID 52 w/e Feb 29, 2020
3.8%
1.1%
5.4%
19.0%
25.9%
33.9%
Beer/FMB/Cider Wine Spirits
Dollar % change vs Prior Year
PRE COVID COVID
0.8%
-1.9%
2.9%
15.4%
21.1%
28.5%
Beer/FMB/Cider Wine Spirits
Volume % change vs Prior Year
PRE COVID COVID
22%
73%
Full Lockdown threshold to get back to ‘flat’ total industry growth
DOES OFF PREMISE GROWTH MAKE UP FOR ON PREMISE LOSSES?
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WINE & SPIRITS OVERALL ASSORTMENT STEADY; BUT CRAFT BEER LONG TAIL REDUCTIONS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels (xAOC + Conv + Liquor)
-15
-10
-5
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5
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% change in # of UPC’s selling by week vs year ago
Wine Spirits Beer Craft Beer
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THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT NOW
OVERALL COMMENTS
Safety – health & hygiene #1 consideration
Massive shifting of “WHERE”• On to Off Premise; a greater ‘homebody’ economy
• ON the premises to more delivery/take-out
• E-commerce/digital explosion
Consumers act/react differently
• Economic impacts
• Health related behavior
• Constrained vs Insulated spenders?
• Younger vs older?
• Where do they live?
Premiumization/trading up
muddier & more nuanced now
In mainstream channels – YES, but in highly premium channels – NO
On Premise trading down?
On to Off Premise shifting down in ‘spend’
Overall Consumption Likely in the flat range overall; Beer share losses accelerating
Who is your consumer?
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Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
SPIRITS
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Ttl Spirits RTD's Tequila Cordials Cognac Am Whsky Jap.Whsky
Gin IrishWhsky
Rum C'ndWhsky
Vodka Scotch Brandy
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
SPIRITS GROWTH LED BY RTD’S, TEQUILA, COGNAC, AM WHISKEY
1.4% 11.5% 7.1% 5.3% 17.2% 0.3% 2.9% 7.7% 8.7% 24.8% 5.7% 1.7%3.4%100%
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Spirits Value Mid Price Premium Ultra
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars) - Price per Eq 750 mlTotal U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
SPIRITS GROWTH LED BY HIGHER PRICE TIERS
8.4% 27.1% 42.1% 22.3%100%
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Total Spirits 750 ML 1.75 L 1L 375 ML 50 ML 200 ML 100 ML
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020; Share of COVID YTD
1.75 L DECELERATING, WHILE GROWTH OF SMALLER SIZES ACCELERATING
46% 34% 6% 7% 4% 3% 1%100%
20.
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WINE
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Table WineGlass
$0-$3.99 $4-$7.99 $8-$10.99 $11-$14.99 $15-$19.99 $20-$24.99 $25+
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars) - Table Wine (Glass); Price per Eq 750 mlU.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
HIGH PREMIUMIZATION LEVEL IN OFF PREMISE
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 8/1/2020)
23%4% 24% 25% 5% 6%12%100%
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Total Wine 750 ml 1.5LGLASS
3L BOX 5L BOX 187ML(ANY)
TETRA CANS 4L 375ML(GLASS)
3L(GLASS)
Percent change vs Yr Ago (Dollars)U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
52 w/e Feb 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-opening
LARGER SIZE GROWTH DECELERATING
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 8/1/2020)
100% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0.6%72% 13% 1% 0.4% 0.4%
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GROWTH OF CANNED WINE AND WINE COCKTAILS
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars); Restricted Living (w/e 3/7/2020 thru w/e 5/30/2020); Re-Opening (w/e 6/6/2020 thru w/e 7/11/2020)
71.3%
43.0%
68.6%
129.8%
45.9%
91.5%
Canned Wine Wine-Based Cocktails
Pre-COVID Restricted Living Re-Opening
0.8%0.7%
0.8%
1.2%1.3%
1.9%
Canned Wine Wine-Based Cocktails
Pre-COVID Restricted Living Re-Opening
Dollar % Change vs Year AgoDollar Share of Wine
24This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
BEER
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COVID-19 TREND SHIFTS FOR BEER/FMB/CIDER
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels, week ending 07/11/20; pre-COVID share time period (13 weeks ending 2/29/20)
Large Sizes Premiumization Big Brands Still Trending
• Every pack size smaller
than 12 packs losing
share to 12 packs and
larger
• Dollar share shift of
5.1% to large packs
• Medium term
• Swing of 5.6% dollar
share from below
premium & premium
segments to above
premium
• Medium term
• Hard seltzers
• Beyond Beer (tea, coffee,
RTD)
• Non and low alcohol
• Most Beyond Beer
segments growing at faster
pace than pre-COVID, but
non-alc growing at slightly
slower pace
• Among top 20 beer
brands, every brand
is growing
• Pre-COVID nearly half
were in decline
• Short term
Indicates trend unique to COVID
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ALL BEER SEGMENTS UP IN DOLLAR GROWTH
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
-10
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TotalCategory
NonAlcoholic
HardTea
SuperPremium
MXImports
FMB(xSeltzer)
Craft BelowPremium
PremiumLight
Cider
52 w/e February 29, 2020 Restricted Living Re-Opening
$ Share Chg
COVID YTD vs YA0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -1.8 -2.1 -0.1
Share losses for Premium Light, Below Premium, Craft , and Mexican Imports
Beer Segments: Off Premise Dollar Growth vs Year Ago
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HARD SELTZER METEORIC RISE DURING COVID
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through August 1, 2020
$1.9
billionHard Seltzer dollars in
Nielsen off premise
channels during
COVID weeks
+5.7%
gainsDollar share gains during
COVID weeks compared
to same weeks last year
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HARD SELTZERS SURPASSED $3B ANNUALLY
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
Wine and spirit-based hard seltzers represent additional $175MM annually (+91% vs YAG)
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Weekly Hard Seltzer Dollar Sales
Current year 1 YAG 2 YAG 3 YAG 4 YAG
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THE HARD SELTZER BUYER DURING COVID
29%
25%
28%
18%
03/01/20 - 04/25/20
Beer Wine Spirits FMB/Ciders
$ Share of Alcohol during COVID March/April
vs Year Ago
NEW BUYERS = Purchased in March/April 2020 and NOT during period of 52 weeks ending February 2020
Source: Nielsen Homescan Premium
44% of hard seltzer buyers during
COVID months of March/April were
NEW to Hard Seltzer
44%FMB/Cider
Spirits
Wine
Beer
+6.5%
+3.1%
-4.0%
-5.6%
30Co
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20
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ECOMMERCE
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BEV ALCOHOL ONLINE SALES CONTINUE TO GROW (FASTER THAN ANY OTHER CPG DEPARTMENT)
6%21%
53%23% 26% 27% 17% 27% 33% 36% 32% 25% 23% 25% 22% 26% 20% 12%13%
74%
284%
352%
476% 478%
525%551%
375%410%
300%325% 315%
247%220%
204%241%
307%
W/E 3/7 W/E3/14
W/E3/21
W/E3/28
W/E 4/4 W/E4/11
W/E4/18
W/E4/25
W/E 5/2 W/E 5/9 W/E5/16
W/E5/23
W/E5/30
W/E 6/6 W/E6/13
W/E6/20
W/E6/27
W/E 7/4
In Store Online
Source: Nielsen Total US xAOC+Convenience+Liquor; Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Total Alcohol - Instore vs Online Growth Trend
Dollar % Change vs. Prior Year
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ONLINE ALCOHOL STILL DOMINATED BY WINE, BUT SPIRITS GROWING FASTEST
Source: Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
476%
273% 274%
Spirits Wine Beer
Alcohol Ecommerce Dollar % Change vs Year Ago
COVID Weeks Thru 7/4/2020
21.1% 69.0% 11.2%
+6.1 -6.1 -1.0
Share
Share
Change
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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
7/2
7/2
01
9
8/1
0/2
01
9
8/2
4/2
01
9
9/7
/20
19
9/2
1/2
01
9
10/5
/201
9
10/1
9/2
01
9
11/2
/201
9
11/1
6/2
01
9
11/3
0/2
01
9
12/1
4/2
01
9
12/2
8/2
01
9
1/1
1/2
02
0
1/2
5/2
02
0
2/8
/20
20
2/2
2/2
02
0
3/7
/20
20
3/2
1/2
02
0
4/4
/20
20
4/1
8/2
02
0
5/2
/20
20
5/1
6/2
02
0
5/3
0/2
02
0
6/1
3/2
02
0
6/2
7/2
02
0
Mill
ion
s
Alcohol E-Commerce Trend
Dollars Buyers
Source: Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Dollars Buyers
COVID
ALCOHOL ECOMM GAINS DRIVEN LARGELY BY NEW BUYERS; 35-44 SHARE OF ONLINE $ GROWING FASTEST
13%
15%
22%
23%
22%
5%
11%
16%
22%
29%
19%
5%
65+
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-35
21-24
% of Dollars Purchasing Alcohol Online by Age Group
COVID Pre-COVID
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Source (Nielsen): Amazon: 52 weeks thru 6-20-2020; Wine.com (thru Q2 2020) (Dollars)
:Nielsen Ecommerce measurement powered by Rakuten Intelligence
Of the top 12 Nielsen Retail Off Premise brands,
how many of those are also in the top 12 at…
E-comm
1 7 6
E-comm
3 6 2
$30MM annually in Bev Alc; +250% 16 wks thru 6/20/2020 vs YAG
NOT ALL ECOMMERCE RETAILERS ARE THE SAME
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DtC WINE SHIPMENTS GROWTH REBOUNDS AS TASTING ROOMS SHUTTER, BUT PRICE IMPACTED
Source: Nielsen in collaboration with
15.3%
8.9%
4.7%
1.2%
40%
15.5%
11.6%
7.4%
2.7%
20%
2017 2018 2019 Jan + Feb 2020 Mar + Apr + May + June 2020
Direct to Consumer Wine Shipments (Total U.S.)Percent change vs YAG
Volume Value
Latest 12 mos: $3.45 Billion
CO
VID
Avg price vs YAG: -$5.67
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CLOSING THOUGHTS• The true economic fallout could very likely still be ahead of us
• With “homebody” economy, off premise presents biggest
opportunities, for now
• Consumers trading up, but premiumization more nuanced
• Prepare for pivots in pricing/promotion, as spending wallets
adjust to income constraints
• Maximize digital communication and e-commerce channels
• Size importance of key consumer groups to your business
• Be granular (geography, timeliness) to quickly act on local
demand signals
This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2018 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
