Natural Capital. An Application of the Integrated Economic ...
Transcript of Natural Capital. An Application of the Integrated Economic ...
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Enhancing Mexico’s Wealth by Investing in
Natural Capital.
An Application of the
Integrated Economic-Environmental Model
(IEEM)
Onil Banerjee, Martin Cicowiez and Renato Vargas with:
Juan Manuel Torres Rojo, Monica Lopez Conlon, Bram Edens, Elsa Marcela
Begne De Larrea, César Edgardo Rodríguez Ortega ET AL.
Forum of Experts on SEEA Ecosystem AccountingDecember 7, 2021
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THE IEEM PLATFORM VALUE-ADDED
A dynamic economy-wide CGE model for future-
looking scenario analysis of public policy/investment.
“What if…?” policy questions.
Integrates SEEA CF: Natural Capital (NC) and market
Ecosystem Services (ES). Includes natural resource-
specific modeling modules.
IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEM+ESM):
spatial land use and non-market ES.
Standard economic indicators + NC, ES and wealth
metrics. Enables engagement with Min. of Finance,
Central Banks, others- we speak the same language.
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IEEM countries shaded green.
OPEN IEEM PLATFORM ONLINE DEBUT
DECEMBER 21, 2021
https://openieem.iadb.org/
IEEM countries shaded green.
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PARTICIPATIVE SCENARIO DESIGN
Stakeholder consultation to identify policy
instruments for conservation and sustainable
management. Types of initiatives included REDD+,
restoration, PES, SFM, bioeconomy, research and
extension, irrigation, infrastructure, and others.
Process led SEMARNAT’s Environmental Planning
Group + NCAVES support: CONABIO, CONAFOR,
CONAGUA, CONANP, INECC, IMTA, DGPE, DGVS; SADER
and SHCP.
Selection of instruments based on relevance to
environmental sector, data availability, and
opportunity to enhance or reinforce policy.
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SCENARIOS
1. Payment for Ecosystem Services (PSA). Conservation.
1,300,348 ha of PES between 2020-2024; 0.5 ha avoided
deforestation; funded by public sector efficiency gains.
2. Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL). Reduce emissions
from AFOLU. 44,000 ha of silvopastoral systems and 14,102
ha of restoration between 2020 y 2024; 50% increase in
productivity; funded by efficiency gains.
3. Environmental Management Areas (UMAs). Sustainable use
area compatible with conservation. 35 million ha of UMAs
between 2020 and 2024; increased hunting revenues on 25%
of the UMAs; funded by efficiency gains.
4. COMBI: All of the above scenarios run jointly.
NATURAL CAPITAL
MANUFACTURED
CAPITAL
HUMAN CAPITAL
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IEEM+ESM WORKFLOW
Policy question:
Conservation in Mexico
Calibrate IEEMRun BASE + scenarios in
IEEM
Spatially attribute LULC change, Dyna-
CLUE
Model ES with InVEST and
IEEM+ESM data packets
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RESULTS: LAND USE LAND COVER
Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change modeling with IEEM-enhanced Dyna-CLUE model.
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RESULTS: ECONOMY
Gross domestic product (left) and wealth (right).
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5
10
15
20
25
30
Mil
lio
ns
of
US
D
PSA ISFL UMA COMBI
-30
-20
-10
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60
Mil
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of
US
D
PSA ISFL UMA COMBI
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RESULTS: ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
Cumulative wealth (left) and poverty (right).
0
50
100
150
200
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Mil
lio
ns
of
US
D
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
PSA ISFL UMA COMBI
Num
ber
of
ind
ivid
ual
s
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RESULTS: ENVIRONMENT
2.56% increase in carbon storage with policy intervention. Ecosystem services modeled with
the Natural Capital Project’s InVEST suite of models and IEEM+ESM datapackets.
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RESULTS: ENVIRONMENT
5.6% less soil loss with policy intervention. Ecosystem services modeled with the
Natural Capital Project’s InVEST suite of models and IEEM+ESM datapackets.
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KEY MESSAGES
The positive results are driven by four main factors:
1. Increased productivity of silvopastoral systems;
2. Enhanced efficiency in use of public resources;
3. Additional revenues from UMAs;
4. Avoided deforestation in the case of PES increases stocks of natural
capital and ecosystem services flows, which result in gains in
wealth.
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IEEM PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
IEEM countries shaded green.
Valuing Natural Capital for Evidence-based Public Policy and Investment Design
For more information on the IEEM Platform Project, contact:
Onil Banerjee
202-615-0603
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NEXT STEPS
Policy question:
Conservation in Mexico
Calibrate IEEMRun BASE + scenarios in
IEEM
Spatially attribute LULC change, Dyna-
CLUE
Model ES with InVEST and
IEEM+ESM data packets
Integrate feedbacks between changes in ecosystem service flows and
the economy; iteration between models every five-year period.