National Weather ServicePerspective for Lidar Wind Data

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Jim Yoe – NWS/NCEP and the JCSDAMike Johnson – NWS/OST

February 8, 2011

Overview• Background

• Applications in the NWS– Numerical Weather Prediction– Secondary Applications

• Closing Considerations

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Background

• Recommendation: “Build A Business Case” – Mike Johnson to LWG, January 2010

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Business Case Requirements

• Recognize Fiscal Realities • Competition with

• Other observing systems

• Model & IT improvements

• Demonstrate technology is ready for space

• Broaden Advocacy Base• Focus on one main application

• Develop secondary applications • WITHOUT requiring system redesign

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Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

Space Weather Prediction Center

National Hurricane

Center

Where are DWL applications developed, supported in the NWS?

Numerical Weather Prediction

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46 FTE26 FTE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERTropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA

• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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Numerical Weather Prediction• Demonstrate impact of global wind observations

on NWP Modeling– Using real observations – ADM, Aircraft obs– Using simulated observations - OSSEs

• Resultsto be reported on in this meeting– Masutani et al– Ma et al

– McCarty et al– Pu et al, Emmitt et al

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Secondary Applications

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Suggested Applications

• Aviation Support– Complement VIS/IR sensing of volcanic ash, SO2– Complement obs of cloud height, phase, & type– Icing, low-cloud, and fog observations (terminal landing

and take-off forecasts)

• Air Quality– Complement GEO sounder observations

• Others ?

11Where and how to explore and develop these?

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Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

Space Weather Prediction Center

National Hurricane

Center

An application identified and requirements specified: How to proceed?

Proving Ground

• Proving Ground Purpose (5.1, J Gurka Wed 0830 & J10.1, IIPS, B Reed Wed 0400PM)− Ensure users ready to fully exploit GOES-R data on day 1

− Focus on interactive demonstrations of GOES-R product set…& in exploitation of GOES-R within NWP.

− Push to include national polar programs within PG. Not realized yet due to NPOESS-to-JPSS transition maturity

− Inherently includes demonstrations from other “operational” satellites. E.g. NASA missions (eg. MODIS)

• Satellite Readiness Training − Training Partners are a Proving Ground Core Member

NWS Satellite Product User Readiness (NSPUR) Working Group

• Formed to mitigate NWS User Readiness Risk associated with impact that GOES-R, NPP, JPSS, other-satellites, AWIPS development, rapid increases in data volume, & changes to data delivery will have on NWS Users.

• Effort to examine in an integrated way:– the products that GOES-R, NPP, JPSS, and other satellite programs are expected to

deliver to NWS & when.

– Corresponding development of communications pathways and AWIPS Extended

– User guided discussions on push-pull trades and optimum achievable product deliveries.

– Identify systematic high-level pathway to achieve strategic goals (merged observing system)

– Develop Satellite Product CONOPs

Engage Users (for example WFOs) in developing applications

Closing Considerations

• Continually assess and balance– Wind Requirements and DWL capabilities– Continually document both

• Internally – NOAA CORL

• Externally – BAMS Article

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Back-Up Slides

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• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System

• Entering the JPSS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface

radiance data• Models run within ESMF/NEMS

– Models run concurrently – Fully coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications

• Collaborative Forecast Process17

Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

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Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the WFOs

• SPC/WFO– Watch “by county”

• HPC/WFO– Winter Weather Desks– Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD– Alaska Desk

• AWC/WFO/CWSU– Collaborative Convective Forecast

Product• CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC

– Hazard Assessment– Seasonal outlooks/CTB

• OPC/WFO– Near shore High seas

• HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR– Unified Surface Analysis!

• SWPC – AWC – AR – Solar/Aviation Products

Discussion:Working to Ensure

User Readiness and Satisfaction

• Multiple activities taking place to prepare NWS users for satellite data

• NWS IT Infrastructure Readiness program manager working closely with those conducting satellite user readiness

NWS Satellite Product User Readiness (NSPUR)

GOAL: DELIVERING MEANINGFUL DATA TO USERS SO THEY CAN DELIVER TIMELY AND ACCURATE FORECASTS

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