National Energy Modeling System(NEMS)

QIHUI Qi

content

Overview of NEMS

- Model structure

- assumption and Data

- Model solution

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Overview of NEMS What is NEMS

Energy

Macro-Economi

c

interactions

World energ

y

Domestic

energy

supply demand

price

compute based energy economic modeling system

Import

export

conversion

Model structure How does NEMS works

National Energy Modeling System

energy, economic, environmental impacts on the United States

Source: The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009

Assumption and Data Assumptions1.Macroeconomic and Financial Factors2. International Energy Market3.U.S. Demographics4.Energy related policy (See Energy related Policies and its

handling in NEMS )

5.Supply and Demand side Technology Characteristics

6.Behavioral and Technological Choice criteria (See Technology categories, characteristics and choice model)

7.Energy Resources Availability and CostsElectricity related polices include polices about the environment, capacity requirement, economic incentive, business and operation, distributed generation and smart grid

Electricity supply technology options summary

FGD: Flue Gas DesulfurizationNote1:The existing coal-fuel plants also combined with the pollution control equipment (cold-side ESP, Hot-side ESP, baghouse, dry, scrubber, wet scrubber, SCR, activated carbon injection) Note 2: Linear programing and market share algorithm are used to determine planning decisions for the electric power industry

Cost and performance characteristics for new electricity generating technology

Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Cost and performance characterizes change by different scenarios and time(See source below for full information)

Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Assumption transport modes in Transportation Module Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of

energy use in eight transport modes: • light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), further subdivided

into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption• commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle

weight), • freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), • buses,• freight and passenger aircraft, • freight and passenger rail, • freight shipping• miscellaneous transport such as recreational boating. Standard Technology Matrix for transport modes are

defined in the assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Assumption and Data Data:• Exogenous (outside Inputs)• Endogenous (Inputs from NEMS)• Output

EMM(electricity market model) Outputs

Inputs from NEMS Exogenous Inputs

Electricity prices Fuel demandsCapacity additionsCapital requirementsEmissionsRenewable capacityAvoided costsElectricity sales

Fuel pricesCogeneration supply and fuel consumptionElectricity sales to the gridRenewable technology characteristics, allowablecapacity, and costsRenew able capacity factorsGross domestic productInterest rates

Financial dataTax assumptionsCapital costsOperation and maintenance costsOperating parametersEmissions ratesNew technologiesExisting facilities

Source: The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009

NEMS Output: Energy projections of annual Metrics

Source: introduction to SAIC-NEMS- A Fully integrating Model of U.S. Energy Economy Science Applications International Corporation 2009

Model solution How is NEMS solved

Energy Price

Energy Demand/supply

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2009 about the solution procedure

Source: introduction to SAIC-NEMS- A Fully integrating Model of U.S. Energy Economy Science Applications International Corporation 2009

Model solution Carbon dioxide emission calculation

National Energy Modeling System

content

Overview of NEMS

- Model structure

- assumption and Data

- Model solution

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Source: National Long-Term Investment Planning for Energy and Transportation Systems

Regional model

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

strengths

weaknesses

content

Overview of NEMS

- Model structure

- assumption and Data

- Model solution

Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department

of Energy

IHS Global Insights, Inc. (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2010

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

The minemouth coal prices in west increases slowly with the annual price growth of 0.5-0.7 precent

Source: annual energy outlook 2010

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department

of Energy

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department

of Energy

Growth in transportation energy useslows relative to historical trend

From 2008 to 2035 average annual rate of 0.6 percent slower than the 1.3-percent average rate from 1980 to 2008.Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

Key results from the AEO2010 reference case See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department

of Energy

Conclusion

NEMS is a bottom up model which covers topics

including energy, economy and environment

NEMS is set up to simulate and project the energy

system and its complex interaction between the outside

environment.

Although the purpose of the NEMS is different from our

project’s, its handling about energy system gives us a

good reference when we set up our own model.