National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
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Transcript of National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
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National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
Collaborators: C. Mueller, J. Pinto, D. Ahijevych, D. Megenhardt, N. Rehak
Stan Trier, NCAR ([email protected])
1) Description and Examples of NCWF
2) Related Ongoing and Future Developments
- NCAR Autonowcaster (J. Wilson, R. Roberts, T. Saxen, H. Cai, E. Nelson, D. Albo, S. Dettling, N. Oien)
- Numerical Forecast Models (e.g., WRF) / Observations and Model Blending
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National Convective Weather National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)Forecast (NCWF)
– 1-2 hr probability forecasts
– Capture regions of growth – Trend dissipation
– 1 hr Extrapolation (cyan)
– Binary yes/no
– Operational Product
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/convection
NCWF -1 NCWF-2
– 1 & 2 hr Probability Forecasts
– Improved Motion Vectors
– Growth & Decay
– Experimental Product
http://weather.aero/convection
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Data:Radar (VIL) mosaicsEcho-tops mosaicsLightning (NLDN)
20km RUC
ConvectiveHazard
Detection
AWC Forecaster
Display
Aviation User
Display(Ex. ADDS)
RUC Large-scale
Growth
Large-scaleTrending
ProbabilityMotionVectors
Verification
Nowcast
NCWF Processing
Standard (NCWF 1 & 2)New (NCWF 2 only)
Color Key:
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NCWF-1 on Operational ADDS
http://adds.aviationweather.gov
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NCWF-1 on Operational ADDS
http://adds.aviationweather.gov
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Previous (Current) 1-hour Hazard Forecast in Purple (Blue) Polygons
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National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
NCWF-2(hr)– Currently available WWW– 4 km updates every 5
minutes. – Use by dispatchers, AOCs,
and pilots (pre-flight).– Probabilities based on spatial
coverage: area size increasing with time
– Trending and growth based on NWP
NCWF-6(hr)
– Blended observation and RUC based system
Experimental ADDsFlight Path Tool
T= 0 min
+120 min
+90 min
+60 min
+30 min
Darker to lighter shades of pink :
Higher to lower Probabilities
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Product Product AvailabilityAvailability • Experimental ADDS
NCWD2Growth/Decay1Hour Forecast2 Hour Forecast
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Convective Hazard Detection (Yellow, Orange, Red Shades)
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Convective Hazard Detection / 1-hr Forecast Probabilities (Pink Shades)
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Detection and extrapolation of surface convergence boundaries ….
….that trigger thunderstorm initiation and impact storm evolution.
The Auto-Nowcaster Systemis unique in its ability to provide nowcasts of storm initiation by…..
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Example of Auto-Nowcaster Initiation Forecast
1 hour forecast Verification
Initiationnowcasts
extrapolationnowcasts
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• Weather Forecast Office Washington DC (Sterling, VA) • Sydney Australia Forecast Office
• U. S. Army White Sands Missile Range
• Central U. S. for the FAA
Where has the Auto-nowcaster been demonstrated ?
Process of being transferred to:• Bureau Meteorology Beijing China
• U.S National Weather Service – Dallas/Fort Worth Weather Forecast Office
• AWIPS
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24 h Reflectivity Forecast valid 4-30-05 00Z
Radar
4 km WRF-ARW
2 km WRF-ARW
4 km WRF-NMM
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Statistical Evaluation
Comparing NCWF05-05, RCPF50-05, Merged05-05
Validation Region
Validation Period : 01-14 Aug 2005
Merged
NCWF
RUC
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Previous 1-hour Growth (Forecast Growth) and Decay of Convective Hazard
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Convective Hazard Detection / Previous 1-h Forecast Validation (Purple Polygons)