National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
description
Transcript of National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
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National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
NCWF-2– Currently available on
Experimental ADDs – Operational in ’07 replacing
NCWF-1– Automated graphical display – User-requested 0-2-hour
probabilities– 4 km resolution with updates
every 5 minutes at 30 minute increments.
– This product is intended for strategic use by dispatchers, AOCs, and pilots (pre-flight and cockpit).
Experimental ADDsFlight Path Tool
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National Convective Weather Forecast – 2hr
Experimental ADDsFlight Path Tool
T= 0 min
+120 min
+90 min
+60 min
+30 min
Darker to lighter shades of pink :
Higher to lower Probabilities
RTVS Verification
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 1 2 3 4
% Area Coverage of Forecast
True
Ski
ll Sc
ore
1hr NCWF-22hr NCWF-21hr CSigmets2hr CSigmets2hr CCFP
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
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0 1 2 3 4
% Area Coverage of Forecast
Crit
ical
Suc
cess
Inde
x
1hr NCWF-22hr NCWF-21hr CSigmets2hr CSigmets2hr CCFP
10%10%
10%
10%
40%
40%
40%
40%
Validation Observation: 4km NCWD
April 1 to Oct 1, 2005
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NCWF–6: Blends Observation and Model Forecasts(1) Observation-based
Forecast skill vs lead timeAug 1 to Aug 14, 2005
Forecast Hours
Fore
cast
Ski
ll - C
SI
(3) NCWF-6 Blended forecast
(2) NWP-based 0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6
ForecastProbabilities
Verification
5 30 50 70%
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National Convective Weather Forecast - 6hr• 1-6 hour probabilistic forecast
blends RUC and NCWF• Complimentary
– Initiation• RUC: good • NCWF: not handled
– Motion• RUC: improves with lead time • NCWF: degrades with lead time
– Dissipation based on diurnal climatology
• Available as a test version next summer,
• Experimental ADDs in 2007– Operational in 2010 replaces NCWF-2
Darker to lighter shades of pink :
Higher to lower Probabilities
Yellow areas forecast regions of echo tops over 30,000 ft
Texture – convective organization and orientation – line, broken line, scattered