Nagoya Final

8/12/2019 Nagoya Final

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A Social Transformation

The 20th Century

TransportationCars, planes, trains

Energy, materials

Nation-states

Public Policy

The 21st Century

CommunicationsComputers, networks

Knowledge, bits

Nationalism

Markets


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The Age of Knowledge

Educated people and ideas

Educated people are the most valuable resourcefor 21st societies and their institutions !!!

Prosperity

Security

Social well-being


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The Forces of Change

The Knowledge ExplosionGlobalizationThe High Performance WorkplaceDiversity

Accelerating Technological ChangeNonlinear Knowledge Transfer

The Age of Knowledge

Changing Societal NeedsFinancial ImperativesTechnology DriversMarket Forces


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The Themes of Our Times

The exponential growth of new knowledge.

The globalization of commerce and culture.

The lifelong educational needs of citizens in a

knowledge-driven, global economy.The increasing diversity of our population and thegrowing needs of underserved communities.

The impact of new technologies that evolve at

exponential rates (e.g., info, bio, and nanotechnology).The compressed timescales and nonlinear nature of thetransfer of knowledge from campus laboratories into thecommercial marketplace.


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Forces of Change

A Changing World

The KnowledgeExplosion

Globalization

High PerformanceWorkplace

Diversity

Technological Change

Knowledge Transfer

Forces on theUniversity

Economics

Societal Needs

Technology

Markets

Evolution?

Revolution?

Extinction?


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Outline

Characteristics of the 20th Century UniversityThe Forces Driving Change in Higher EducationThe University of the 21st CenturyTransforming Higher Education to Serve a New CenturySome Lessons LearnedSome Remaining (and Very Fundamental) Questions


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Traditional Roles of the University:The Core

Educating the Young

Sustaining Academic Disciplines

and Professions

Seeking Truthand Creating

New Knowledge

Serving as a

Social Critic

Teachingand

Scholarship

Sustaining andPropagatingCulture and Values

Critical Thinking Analysis and Problem SolvingMoral Reasoning and Judgment


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The Traditional Roles of the University:The Periphery

Economic Development(Agriculture, Industry, etc.)

Technology Transfer

NationalDefense

Health CareTeachingand

Scholarship

International Development

Entertainment(Arts, Sports)


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Case Study 1

Higher Educationin the United States


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The Evolution of U.S. Higher Education

1700sFrontier America Colonial Colleges

1800sIndustrial Society Land-Grant Universities1900sRise of Professions Technical Colleges

1940sWWII, the Cold War Research Universities

1950sMass Education University Systems

1990sMarket Forces Cyber-U, Global U, For-profit U


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The United States Higher Education System

AAU-Class Research Universities (60)

Research Universities (115) Doctoral Universities (111)

Comprehensive Universities (529)

Baccalaureate Colleges (637)

Two-Year Colleges (1,471)

Total U.S. Colleges and Universities: 3,595


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The Evolving U.S. Education System

For profit U(650)

Open U

Corporate U

(1,600)

Cyber U(1,000)

Niche U

New learning

lifeforms

Knowledge Infrastructure(production, distribution, marketing, testing, credentialling)

AAU Res URes U I, II

Doc U I, IIComp U I, IILib Arts Colleges

Community CollegesK-12


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Some Other Characteristics of theU.S. System of Higher Education

65% of high school graduates attend college(although only 50% of these will receive degrees)

15 million students enrolled in 3,595 colleges and universities(520,000 international students)

80% of students enrolled in public universities $200 billion/year spent on U.S. higher education

$50 billion/y in federal student financial aid$20 billion/y in federal research grants$60 billion/y in state (regional) appropriations$70 billion/y in tuition, gifts, business activities, etc.


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The Role of Government in the U.S.

The Federal Government: No ministry, no national system, no controlsno policy $50 B/y of financial aid for students

$15 B/y of research grants to facultyNOTE: The federal government provides funds to people (students,faculty, patients), not universities.

State Governments:

$65 B/y to support operation of public universitiesGreat diversity in state governance, from rigidly controlled systems(New York, Ohio) to strategic master plans (California) to anarchy(Michigan)


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The Role of Markets

For students (particularly the best)

For faculty (particularly the best)For public funds (research grants, state appropriations)For private funds (gifts, commercial)For winning athletics programsFor everything and everybody

In a sense, Michigan competes not only with UC-Berkeley, Harvard, and MIT, but also with Oxford and

Cambridge, not to mention IBM and Microsoft!

The U.S. higher education enterprise is highly competitive!


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Case Study 2

The Universityof Michigan


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University of Michigan

First truly public university in United States (1817)Constitutional autonomyOne of U.S.s largest universities

People: 50,000 students; 3,500 faculty, 25,000 staffBudget: $3.4 billion/year; ($3.9 billion endowment)Facilities: 3 million m 2 of facilitiesCampuses in Europe, Hong Kong, Korea, Brazil, cyberspace

One of U.S.s leading research universities (> $600 million/year) Some other features:

First university hospital (1 million patients a year, $1.4 billion/year)Key role in developing and managing the Internet (now Internet2)


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UM Schools and Colleges

Architecture Art and DesignBusiness AdministrationDentistryEducationEngineeringGraduate programs

InformationKinesiologyLaw

HumanitiesMedicineMusicNatural ResourcesNursingPharmacyPublic Health

Public PolicySciencesSocial Work


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Financing the University


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Another way to look at UM

On campus education50,000 students

$1.2 billion/y

National R&D Lab$600 million/y

UM Hospitals1 million patients/y

$1.3 billion/y

UM Health System200,000

Managed lives

Veritas Insurance Co$200 million

Gobal KnowledgeServices

$200 million

EntertainmentMichigan Wolverines

$200 million

U of M, Inc


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The Forces of Change


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Forces of Change

A Changing World

The KnowledgeExplosion

Globalization

High PerformanceWorkplace

Diversity

Technological Change

Knowledge Transfer

Forces on theUniversity

Societal Needs

Economics

Technology

Markets

Brave New World?Society of Learning?


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Forces on the University

Changing Societal Needs

Financial ImperativesTechnologyMarket forces


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Changing Societal Needs

Increasing population of traditional students

The plug and play generation

Education needs of adults in the high-performance workplace(lifelong learning)Passive student to active learner to demanding consumer

Just -in-case to just -in-time to just -for-you learning

Diversity (gender, race, nationality, socioeconomic,)

Global needs for higher education

Concern: There are many signs that the currentparadigms are no longer adequate for meetinggrowing and changing societal needs.


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Global Needs

Half of the worlds population is under 20 years old.

Today, there are over 30 million people who are fully qualified toenter a university, but there is no place available. This number will

grow to over 100 million during the next decade.To meet the staggering global demand for advanced education, amajor university would need to be created every week.

In most of the world, higher education is mired in a crisis of access,cost, and flexibility. The dominant forms of higher education indeveloped nations campus based, high cost, limited use oftechnology seem ill-suited to addressing global education needs ofthe billions of young people who will require it in the decadesahead.

Sir John Daniels


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Financial Imperatives

Increasing societal demand for university services(education, research, service)

Increasing costs of educational activities

Declining priority for public support

Public resistance to increasing prices (tuition, fees)

Inability to re-engineering cost structures

Concern: The current paradigms forconducting, distributing, and financing highereducation may not be able to adapt to thedemands and realities of our times


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Technology

Since universities are knowledge-driven organizations,it is logical that they would be greatly affected by therapid advances in information and communicationstechnologies

We have already seen this in administration andresearch.

But the most profound impact could be on education, astechnology removes the constraints of space, time,

reality (and perhaps monopoly )

Concern: The current paradigm of the universitymay not be capable of responding to theopportunities or the challenges of the digital age.


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Market Forces

Changing societal needs, economic realities, and rapidlyevolving technology are creating powerful market forcesin the higher education enterprise. The traditional

monopolies of the university, sustained in the past bygeography and certification, are breaking apart.

We may be seeing the early signs of a restructuring ofthe higher education enterprise into a global knowledgeand learning industry.

Concern: The current faculty-centered, monopoly-sustained university paradigm is ill suited to the intenselycompetitive, technology-driven, global marketplace.


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Information Technology

and theFuture of the University


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The Key Themes of the Digital Age

The exponential pace of the evolution of digital technology.The ubiquitous/pervasive character of the Internet.The relaxation (or obliteration) of the conventional constraints of

space, time, and monopoly.The pervasive character of information (universal access toinformation, education, and research).The changing ways we handle digital data, information, andknowledge.

The growing important of intellectual capital relative to physicalor financial capital in the new economy.


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A Detour:The Evolution of Computers

Mainframes (Big Iron)IBM, CDC, Amdahl Proprietary software FORTRAN, COBOL Batch, time -sharing

MinicomputersDEC, Data Gen, HP PDP, Vax C, Unix MicrocomputersHand calculators

TRS, Apple, IBM Hobby kits -> PCs

SupercomputersVector processors Cray, IBM, Fujitsu Parallel processors

Massively parallel NetworkingLANs, Ethernet Client -server systemsArpanet, NSFnet, Internet

Batch Time-sharing Personal Collaborative


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From Eniac


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To ASCI White


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The Evolution of Computing

1.5 y

1 y

2 y

Doubling Time


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Some Extrapolation of the PC

2000 2010 2020

Speed 10 9 10 12 10 15

RAM 10 8 10 11 10 14

Disk 10 9 10 12 10 15

LAN 10 8 10 12 10 15

Wireless 10 6 10 9 10 12


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Some Examples

SpeedMHz to GHz to THz to Peta Hz

Memory

MB (RAM) to GB (CD,DVD) to TB (holographic)Bandwidth

Kb/s (modem) to Mb/s (Ethernet) to Gb/sInternet2 (Project Abilene): 10 Gb/s

Networks Copper to fiber to wireless to photonicsFiber to the forehead


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Computer-Mediated Human Interaction

1-D (words) Text, e-mail, chatrooms, telephony

2-D (images)

Graphics, video, WWW, multimedia3-D (environments)

Virtual reality, distributed virtual environmentsImmersive simulations, avatars

Virtual communities and organizationsAnd beyond

TelepresenceNeural implants


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Evolution of the Net

Already beyond humancomprehension

Incorporates ideas and mediatesinteractions among millions of people

200 million today; more than 1 billionin 2005

Internet2, Project Abilene


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Some Other Possibilities

Ubiquitous computing?Computers disappear (just as electricity)Calm technology, bodynets

Agents and avatars?Fusing together physical space andcyberspacePlugging the nervous system into the Net

Emergent behavior? Self organization Learning capacity Consciousness (HAL 9000)


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IT and the University

Missions : teaching, research, service?

Alternative : Creating, preserving, integrating,transferring, and applying knowledge.

The University : A knowledge server, providingknowledge services in whatever form is needed bysociety.

Note : The fundamental knowledge roles of theuniversity have not changed over time, but theirrealizations certainly have.


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Research

Simulating reality

Collaboratories: the virtual laboratory

Changing nature of research

Disciplinary to interdisciplinary

Individual to team

Small think to big think

Analysis to creativity

Tools: materials, lifeforms, intelligences


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Libraries

Books to bytes (atoms to bits)

Acquiring knowledge to navigating

knowledgeWhat is a book?

A portal to the knowledge of the world.


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Teaching to Learning

PedagogyFrom lecture hall to environment for interactive, collaborativelearning

From teacher to designer and coachClassroomFrom handicraft to commodityFrom solitary students to learning communitiesFrom campuses to virtual, distributed environments

Open learningFrom teacher-centered to learner-centered

Passive Student to Active Learner to Demanding ConsumerUnleashing the power of the marketplace


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The Plug and Play Generation

Raised in a media-rich environment

Sesame Street, MTV,Playstation, Nintendo

Home computers, Internet, virtual realityLearn through participation and experimentation

Learn through collaboration and interaction

Multiprocessing, multimedia literacy, bricolage


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I f i T h l d


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Information Technology andthe Future of the Research University

Premise :

Rapidly evolving information technology poses

great challenges and opportunities to highereducation in general and the researchuniversity in particular.

Yet many of the key issues do not yet seem torecognized or understood by either the leadersor stakeholders of the university.


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ITFRU Task Force

James Duderstadt (Chair), PresidentEmeritus, Univesity of MichiganDaniel Atkins, Professor ofInformation and Computer Science,University of MichiganJohn Seely Brown, Chief Scientist,

Xerox PARCMarye Anne Fox, Chancellor, NorthCarolina State UniversityRalph Gomory, President, Alfred P.Sloan FoundationNils Hasselmo, President,

Association of American UniversitiesPaul Horn, Senior Vice President forResearch, IBMShirley Ann Jackson, President,Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteFrank Rhodes, President Emeritus,Cornell University

Marshall Smith, Professor ofEducation, Stanford; ProgramOfficer, Hewlett FoundationLee Sproull, Professor of Business

Administration, NYU

Doug Van Houweling, President andCEO, UCAIC/Internet2Robert Weisbuch, President,Woodrow Wilson NationalFellowship FoundationWilliam Wulf, President, National

Academy of EngineeringJoe B. Wyatt, Chancellor Emeritus,Vanderbilt UniversityRaymond E. Fornes (Study staff),Professor of Physics, North CarolinaState University


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Objectives

To identify those information technologies likely toevolve in the near term (a decade or less).To examine the possible implications of thesetechnologies for the research university: its activities;its organization, management, and financing and theimpact on the broader higher education enterprise.To determine what role, if any, there is for the federalgovernment and other stakeholders in thedevelopment of policies, programs, and investmentsto protect the valuable role and contributions of theresearch university during this period of change.


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Conclusions (continued)

Yet, for at least the near term, the university will continue toexist in essentially its present form, although meeting thechallenge of emerging competitors in the marketplace will

demand significant changes in how we teach, how weconduct scholarship, and how our institutions are financed.

Although we feel confident that information technology willcontinue its rapid evolution for the foreseeable future, it isfar more difficult to predict the impact of this technology onhuman behavior and upon social institutions such as theuniversity.


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Conclusions (continued)

In summary, for the near term (meaning a decade orless), we anticipate that information technology willdrive comprehensible if rapid, profound, and

discontinuous change in the university. It is adisruptive technology.

For the longer term (two decades and beyond), the

future is less clear. The implications of a million-foldor billion-fold increase in the power of informationtechnology are difficult to even imagine, much lesspredict for our world and even more so for ourinstitutions.


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Another Perspective

The impact of information technology will beeven more radical than the harnessing ofsteam and electricity in the 19th century.Rather it will be more akin to the discoveryof fire by early ancestors, since it willprepare the way for a revolutionary leap intoa new age that will profoundly transformhuman culture.

Jacques Attali, Millennium


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The Restructuring of theHigher Education Enterprise


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The Restructuring of theHigher Education Enterprise

Industry


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Market Forces

Changing Social Needs

Financial Imperatives

Evolving Technology

PowerfulMarketForces


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The Role of Markets

For students (particularly the best)

For faculty (particularly the best)For public funds (research grants,operating appropriations)

For private funds (gifts, commercialrevenue)

For everything and everybody


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A Restructured Industry?

There are signs that higher education may be in the earlystages of a major restructuring like other economic sectorssuch as energy, banking, and transportation that underwentrestructuring following deregulation.

The restructuring of the higher education enterprise is beingdriven by changing social needs, financial pressures, rapidlyevolving technology, and most significantly, emerging marketforces. These are also driving a convergence of educationwith other knowledge-intensive industries such as informationtechnology, telecommunications, information services, andentertainment into what might be regarded as:

A Global Knowledge and Learning Industry


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A Quote from a Venture Capital Prospectus

As a result, we believe education representsthe most fertile new market for investors inmany years. It has a combination of large

size (approximately the same size as healthcare), disgruntled users, lower utilization oftechnology, and the highest strategicimportance of any activity in which this country

engages . . . . Finally, existing managementsare sleepy after years of monopoly.


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Scenario 1

The Brave, New World

of

Commercial Higher Education


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The Knowledge Industry

Hardware

Networks

Software

Solutions

Content

Boxes, PCs, PDAs

Backbones, LANs, Wireless

OS, Middleware, Applications

Systems, Integrators

Data, Knowledge, Entertainment,Learning?

IBM, HP, Sun, Lucent,Nokia, Ericcson

AT&T, MCI, Telcoms

Microsoft, IBM, Sun Accenture, EDS, IBM,Unisys

Time-Warner, Disney,

dot.coms, AAU?


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The Core Competencies of the University

Educated people

Content

Services

Learning

Faculty andStaff expertise

Culture

Research

A Possible Future


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for the U.S. Higher Education Enterprise

$300 billion ($3 trillion globally)30 million students200,000 faculty facilitators 50,000 faculty content providers 1,000 faculty celebrity stars

(compared to 800,000 current faculty serving a $180 billionenterprise with 15 million students )

Supported by a commercial industry handling the production andpackaging of learning ware, the distribution and delivery ofeducational services to learners, and the assessment andcertification of learning outcomes.


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Possibilities

Unbundling A commodity marketplaceMergers, acquisitions, hostile takeoversNew learning lifeforms

An intellectual wasteland???


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A Society of Learning

Since knowledge has become not only the wealth ofnations but the key to ones personal prosperity andquality of life, it has become the responsibility ofdemocratic societies to provide their citizens with theeducation and training they need, throughout theirlives, whenever, wherever, and however they desire it,at high quality and at an affordable cost.

Key Characteristics of Education in


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a Society of Learning

Learner-centered Affordable

Lifelong learning A seamless webInteractive and collaborative

Asynchronous and ubiquitous

DiverseIntelligent and adaptive


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A Key Policy Question

How do we balance the roles of market forcesand public purpose in determining the future ofhigher education. Can we control market forcesthrough public policy and public investment so

that the most valuable traditions and values of theuniversity are preserved?

Or will the competitive and commercial pressuresof the marketplace sweep over our institutions,leaving behind a higher education enterprisecharacterized by mediocrity?

Which of the two scenarios will be our future?


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Transforming the University


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Challenges to Change

The complexity of the contemporary universityThe unrelenting pace of change

Resistance to change (from within and without)Mission creep

Antiquated governance of universities


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Some Lessons Learned

Always begin with mission and valuesThe importance of diversityThe difficulty of achieving balanceGovernment and governanceInstitutional autonomy and subsidiarityFinancing higher education

AlliancesExperimentationTurning threats into opportunities


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Begin with the basics: mission and values

What are our most important roles? Educating theyoung? Preserving and transmitting culture? Basicresearch and scholarship? Sustaining the academic

disciplines and professions? A responsible critic ofsociety?

What are our most important values? Academic

freedom? An openness to new ideas? Rigorousstudy? Faculty governance? Faculty tenure?


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Achieving balance

Among missions (teaching, research, service) Among disciplines (liberal education, academic

disciplines, professions)Undergraduate vs. graduate vs. professionaleducation (e.g., education vs. training)Sciences vs. humanities

Life sciences vs. everything else (U.S. dilemma)


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Governments and Governance

Public policy that views the university as A public good or an individual benefit?

A public investment or an expenditure? A government agency or a social institution?

Increasing government demands for accountabilityand performanceShared governance (rigor mortis or anarchy?)


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Some Governance Principles

Institutional autonomy Academic freedomResponsible social critic

Ability to control destiny during time of changeSubsidiarity

Authority and responsibility pushed to lowest

possible level Academic leadership provided with authoritycommensurate with responsibility


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Financing the University

Who pays? Governments? Students? Researchsponsors? Private donors? Marketplace?

Tax policy that stimulates private donations(charitable contributions)Ownership of intellectual property (Bayh-Dole Act)The entrepreneurial university

The privately -supported but publicly- committeduniversity


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Alliances

As universities become more specialized anddifferentiated, alliances become more important

Among different types of institutions (researchuniversities, polytechnics, liberal arts colleges)International alliances (e.g., Erasmus-Socrates,Bologna Declaration)

Symbiotic relationships (industry, government)


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Experimentation

Change is accelerating. The future is becoming lesscertain.One possible approach to uncertainty is explorepossible futures through experimentation anddiscovery.To encourage a higher-risk culture in whichoccasional failure is tolerated

To encourage grass-root engagement of faculty andstudents (to ban the word No from the vocabulary ofadministrators and bureaucrats)


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An Example: the University of Michigan

A privately-supported, public university (restructuringfinancing by increasing tuition, federal R&D support,

private gifts, endowments, reserves,and moving tomore efficient management styles) A diverse university with respect to race, gender,nationality, socioeconomic background, etc.

A world university with programs in Asia, Europe,Latin America, and Africa A cyberspace university , with leadership through theInternet (and now Internet2)

During the 1990s we explored an array of new paradigms


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Another Example: An Open Source University

Linux software movementMIT Open Courseware ProjectMichigan CHEF Project

An idea: Suppose a small group of the worlds leadingcomprehensive universities were to place in the publicdomain (for all to use) the digital resources supporting theirentire curriculum (all academic disciplines and professionalprograms), along with open-source versions of the softwaretools and platforms necessary to use these resources


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Turning Threats into Opportunities

Approach issues and decisions concerning universitytransformation not as threats but rather as

opportunities.Once we accept that change is inevitable, we can useit as a strategic opportunity to control our destiny,while preserving the most important of our values and

our traditions.

A W i


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A Warning

There is no more delicate matter to take inhand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor moredoubtful of success, than to step up as a leader

in the introduction of change.For he who innovates will have for his enemiesall those who are well off under the existingorder of things, and only lukewarm support in

those who might be better off under the new.

Niccolo Machiavelli


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Some Remaining Questions


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1. How do we respond to the diverse educational andintellectual needs of knowledge-driven societies? (Forexample, as human capital becomes more important thanphysical or financial capital.)


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S i i Q i


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2. Is higher education a public or a private good?3. How do we balance the roles of public purpose versus

market forces in determining the future of our universities?(Can public investment counter competitive and

commercial market pressures?)

S R i i Q i


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2. Is higher education a public or a private good?3. How do we balance the roles of public purpose versus

market forces in determining the future of our universities?(Can public investment counter competitive and

commercial market pressures?)4. What should be the role of the research university within a

changing higher education enterprise? Should we leadchange? Or should we protect key values and traditions

(e g academic freedom social critic)?


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And, perhaps the most important question of all

Are we facing a period of evolution, revolution, orpossible extinction of the university as we know it

today?

f


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One of civilizations most enduring institutions

For a thousand years the university has benefited our civilization asa learning community where both the young and experienced couldacquire not only knowledge and skills, but as well the values anddiscipline of the educated mind.

It has defended and propagated our cultural and intellectualheritage, while challenging our norms and beliefs.

It has produced the leaders of our governments, commerce, andprofessions.

It has both created and applied new knowledge to serve our society. And it has done so while preserving those values and principles soessential to academic learning: the freedom of inquiry, an opennessto new ideas, a commitment to rigorous study, and a love oflearning.

Th C i i f Ch


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The Continuity of Change

Clearly higher education will flourish in the decades ahead. In aknowledge intensive society, the need for advanced educationand knowledge will become ever more pressing, both forindividuals and societies more broadly.

Yet it is also likely that the university as we know it today ratherthe current constellation of diverse institutions comprising thehigher education enterprise will change in profound ways toserve a changing world.

Just as it has done, so many times in the past.

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