Nab Residential Property Survey June 11

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Embargoed until:11.30am Thursday 14 July 2011

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey: June 2011The NAB Residential Property Index moved into negative territory in the June quarter with a reading of -5

points (+16 points in March), reflecting falling house prices and a moderation in rental growth. National house prices fell by -2% in theJune quarter and rents slowed to 1.3%. The biggest turnaround was noted in Victoria, where the index declined from +23 points to -16points. NSW is clearly now the strongest housing market state, with the index at +18 points in June, although this is down from +39points in March. The index is forecast to rise to +21 points over the next year, led by WA and NSW, with national house prices tipped tofall by -1.4% and rents to rise by 3.1%. By June 2013, the index is expected to reach +44 points, with WA a clear out-performer,reflecting mildly positive national house price growth (+0.5%) and stronger rents (4.4%). House buyers continue to cite tight creditconditions as a major constraint in buying property, but concerns over rising interest rates and house price levels are also growing,suggesting that affordability is still a major issue in the housing market.

The Australian housing market continues to soften, with nationwide house prices falling by -2% in the June quarter (-1.1% inMarch). House prices fell in all states, with the largest declines seen in Queensland (-3.7%), SA/NT (-2.7%) and Victoria (-2.4%).Future house price expectations also weakened, with the survey now predicting a fall of -1.4% over the next year (+0.5% in March),with negative growth forecast in all states except Western Australia (0.2%). Looking further ahead, house prices are expected torecover by June 2013 with modest growth of 0.5% predicted. House prices in WA are expected to significantly out-perform theother states with prices rising by 3%. House prices are expected to remain flat in Victoria during this period and fall slightly inQueensland (-0.3%).

Nationwide rents increased by 1.3% in June, but this was down from 1.7% in March. Rental growth was positive in all states,with the biggest increases recorded in SA/NT (2.4%), WA (2%) and NSW (1.5%). Rental growth in Queensland was slowest at0.4%. Future expectations for rents have been revised down slightly with the latest survey pointing to nationwide rental increasesof 3.1% over the next year (3.5% in March). Rental expectations were downgraded in all states. Over the next two years,nationwide rents are expected to increase by 4.4% (5.2% in March), with expectations strongest in WA (6.3%) and NSW (4.6%)and weakest in Victoria (3.7%).

The new housing market continues to be dominated by resident owner occupiers (46% of total demand). Resident investorsmake up the next biggest share with 28%, but this was down from 34% in March. First home buyers accounted for 17% of themarket, with first home buyers most active in NSW (24%) and least active in Queensland (10%). Demand for new residentialdevelopments is currently strongest for inner city low rise apartments, but there has been a notable deterioration in demand for alltypes of new residential property since March. Tight credit conditions are still seen as the main impediment to newresidential developments, but concerns over rising interest rates are growing.

Resident owner occupiers were more active in the existing property market in June, accounting for 59% of total demand. Residentinvestors accounted for just 20% of demand, but investor demand was stronger in Victoria and Queensland. First home buyersaccounted for 15% of the market for existing properties in the June quarter, with first home buyers most active in NSW

and Victoria. Demand for existing property remains strongest for inner city houses, but demand weakened in all locations, withmiddle ring properties experiencing the biggest declines. The best prospects for capital growth in existing property markets overthe next year remain in the sub-$500,000 category, while top end property is expected to continue under-performing. Risinginterest rates replaced tight credit conditions as the biggest impediment for purchasing existing property in the Junequarter. Concerns over house price levels also increased despite the slow down in house price growth, suggestingaffordability is still a major issue in the housing market.

NAB Residential Property Index

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13

Australia Victoria NSW

Qld SA/NT WA

Expectations

Index House Price Expectations (next 12 months)

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Qld Victoria SA/NT Australia NSW WA

Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

%

NAB Residential Property Index: June Quarter 2011

Mar-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-13

Victoria 23 -16 -13 12 37

NSW 39 18 26 38 46

Queensland -5 -27 -14 5 44

South Australia/Northern Territory -8 -6 -13 -13 19

Western Australia 12 5 29 42 66

Residential Property Index 16 -5 5 21 44

For more information contact:Alan Oster, Chief Economist(03) 8634 2927 0414 444 652

Robert De Iure, Senior Property Economist(03) 8634 4611

Dean Pearson, Head of Industry(03) 8634 2331



Embargoed until 11.30am Thursday 14 July 2011

2

Residential Property - Market PerformanceThe pace of national house price decline accelerated in the Junequarter, with prices down by -2% according to our survey respondents(-1.1% in March). House prices are falling in all states, with the biggestfalls seen in Queensland (-3.7%), where flooding has compoundedalready weak market conditions, SA/NT (-2.7%) and Victoria (-2.4%),mainly due to affordability constraints.

There has also been a notable deterioration in house priceexpectations across the country since our last survey. In the Marchquarter, national house prices were expected to rise by 0.6% over thenext 12 months. However, the aggregate measure is now predicting afall of 1.4%. Negative house price growth is predicted in all statesexcept Western Australia (0.2%), with the biggest falls tipped forQueensland (-2.3%) and Victoria (-2.1%).

National house prices are set to recover by June 2013, with modestgrowth of 0.5%. Western Australia is expected to significantly out-perform other states, with prices rising by 3%. In NSW, house pricesare tipped to rise by 0.6%, with growth of 0.2% forecast for SA/NT.House prices are expected to remain flat in Victoria during this periodand fall slightly by -0.3% in Queensland.

National house prices softened in the June quarter

House Price Expectations

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Mar-11 J un-11 Sep-11 Dec -1 1 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-1 2 Dec-12 Mar-13 J un-13

Australia Victoria NSW Qld SA/NT WA

Expectations

%

While house values were negative in the June quarter, rental rateswere positive according to our survey respondents. In June,nationwide rents increased by 1.3%, although this was down slightlyfrom 1.7% in the March quarter. Rental growth remained positive in allstates, with the biggest gains seen in SA/NT (2.4%), Western Australia(2%), NSW (1.5%) and Victoria (1.1%). Rental growth was slowest inQueensland at 0.4%.

Rental expectations have been revised down slightly since our lastsurvey. In March, nationwide rents were tipped to rise by 3.5% overthe next 12 months, but the latest survey is pointing to rental increasesof 3.1% over the next year. Rental expectations were downgraded inall states. Western Australia (4.6%) and NSW (3.6%) are expected toprovide the best income returns over the next year, with expectationsnow weakest in Victoria (2.3%).

Over the next two years, nationwide rents are expected to increase by

4.4%, which is down from 5.2% in March. Rental expectations duringthis period are strongest in Western Australia (6.3%), NSW (4.6%),SA/NT (4.2%) and Queensland (4%). Rental returns are expected tobe weakest in Victoria (3.7%).

The pace of rental growth also moderated in June

Rental Expectations

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


Australia Victoria NSW Qld SA/NT WA

Expectations

%

The NAB Residential Property Index moved into negative territory in the June quarter, led by weaker outcomes in Victoria and Queensland. NSW and WA are now the only states

where the index is recording a positive reading.

NAB Residential Property Index: March 2011 vs June 2011

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

NSW WA Australia SA/NT Victoria Queensland

Mar-11 Jun-11

Index

NAB Residential Property Index

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


Australia Victoria NSW

Qld SA/NT WA

Expectations

Index

Reflecting the faster pace of house price decline and a moderation in rental growth, NAB’s Residential Property Index - which is derived fromhouse price and rental expectations - moved into negative territory in the June quarter with a reading of -5 points, down from a revised +16points in March. The biggest turnaround was noted in Victoria, where the index declined from +23 points to -16 points. In Queensland, the indexfell to -27 points (-5 points in March). NSW is clearly now the strongest housing market state, with the index at +18 points in June, although thisis down from +39 points in March. A positive index was also recorded in WA (+5 points), but this was also lower than in March (+12 points).

The national Index is forecast to rise to +21points over the next year, led by WA (+42 points) and NSW (+38 points), with conditions positive inall states bar SA/NT (-13 points). By June 2013, the index is expected to reach +44 points, again led by WA (+66 points) and NSW (+46 points).Victoria (+37 points) and SA/NT (+19 points) remain the weakest states, reflecting the weaker outlook for rents and house prices in those states.




3

Residential Property - New Developments

Australian resident owner occupiers are expected to remain the drivers of demand for new residential property developments over the next year.

Percentage Share of Buyers - New Developments

(current quarter)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Australian ResidentFirst Home Buyers

Australian ResidentOwner Occupiers

Australian ResidentInvestors

Overseas Buyers Other

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

Percentage Share of Buyers - New Developments

(next 12 months)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Australian ResidentFirst Home Buyers

Australian ResidentOwner Occupiers

Australian ResidentInvestors


Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

NAB’s Quarterly Residential Property Survey asks respondents to nominate the composition of buyers for new residential developments, bothnow and over the next 12 months. The June survey shows that Australian resident owner occupiers dominated the market in the June quarter,accounting for 46% of total demand (42% in March). Australian resident investors make up the next biggest share with 28%, but this was downfrom 34% in March. First home buyers accounted for 17% of the market, with first home buyers for new developments most active in NSW(24%) and least active in Queensland (10%). The share of overseas buyers increased slightly to 7%, up from 6% in March. These trends areexpected to stay broadly unchanged over the next 12 months.

Survey respondents were also asked to nominate demand conditionsfor various types of new residential property - both now and in 12months time. At the national level, inner city low rise apartments wereidentified as the preferred location for new property. However, therewas a notable deterioration in demand for all types of new residentialproperty compared with our previous survey, which is consistent withweaker house price expectations.

In June, demand for inner city low rise apartments and townhouseswas the only property type classified as “good”, with demand for allother property types categorised as “fair”. Demand for new property iscurrently assessed as weakest in middle/outer ring apartments (highand low rise), with the demand for inner city housing and high riseapartments and CBD apartments falling most heavily.

Demand for new residential property is expected to remain broadlyunchanged over the next 12 months. According to our surveyrespondents, demand for inner city low rise apartments will remain“good”, with demand for all other property types expected to remainonly “fair”. In all property categories, however, demand is expected tobe slightly stronger than is the case now.

Demand for all types of new residential property has weakened

Demand for New Residential Developments (current)

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

Middle/Outer Ring Apartments (>4stories)

Middle/Outer Ring Low Rise

Apartments (<4 stories) &

Townhouses

CBD Apartments

Inner City Apartments (>4 stories)

Inner City Detached/Semi-Detached

Houses

Middle/Outer Ring Detached/Semi-Detached Houses

Inner City Low Rise Apartments (<4

stories) & Townhouses

Jun-11

Mar-11

Poor Fair Good VeryGood

Excellent

When asked to identify the severity of constraints on new residentialdevelopments, our survey respondents continued to cite tight credit

conditions as their most “significant” concern - a result that wasconsistent among all the states - but seen as being a “very significant”constraint in SA/NT and NSW.

Rising interest rates were identified as the next biggest constraint tonew property development, with these concerns assessed as“significant” in all states. Our June quarter results show that around71% of respondents now expect interest rates to be higher over thenext 12 months, compared with only 61% in our March survey. Onaverage, our respondents expect interest rates to rise by 50 bps overthe next 12 months. This is broadly in line with current NAB forecasts,which now sees the next 25 bps rise in the cash rate deferred untilDecember, when growth momentum and labour market tightness willbe more apparent, with the final 25 bps rise put back to May 2012.

Housing affordability was also identified in the current survey as a“significant” constraint and was viewed as being most problematic inVictoria and Western Australia. The sustainability of house price gainswas also cited as a “significant” concern, with these concerns highestin Western Australia and NSW.

Tight credit conditions and rising interest

rates seen as major impediments, with the level of concern increasing since March.

Major Constraints on New Housing Development

0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50

Labour Availability

Construction Costs

Lack of Development Sites

Sustainability of House Price Gains

Housing Affordability

Rising Interest Rates

Tight Credit for New ResidentialDevelopment

Jun-11

Mar-11

Not at all

Significant

Not Very

Significant

Somewhat

SignificantSignificant Very

Significant




4

Residential Property - Existing PropertiesThe composition of buyers in the market for existing properties differsfrom that for new developments. Australian resident owner occupiersare more active in this market, accounting for 59% of total demand,compared to 46% for new developments and unchanged from ourprevious survey. Resident investors are seen as less active in thismarket, accounting for just 20% of total demand in the June quarter,

compared with 28% for new developments. Demand from investorswas identified as strongest in Victoria (22%) and Queensland (22%)and weakest in SA/NT (15%). First home buyers accounted for 15% ofthe market for existing properties in the June quarter, compared with17% for new developments. There was, however, significantdivergence across the states. In NSW and Victoria, first home buyersaccounted for 19% and 17% of the market respectively, but only 10%in Queensland and 11% in SA/NT.

Resident owner occupiers will continue to dominate demand over thenext 12 months, but their share of total demand is expected to fallslightly to 57%. Over the same period, the share of investors and firsthome buyers is forecast to rise slightly to 22% and 16% respectively.The share of overseas investors is set to stay at around 5%.

Owner occupiers remain more active in the market for existing properties.

Percentage Share of Buyers - Existing Properties

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Australian Resident

First Home Buyers

Australian Resident

Owner Occupiers

Australian Resident

Investors


Current Quarte r Next 12 mo nths

Demand for all types of existing property has weakened, particularly in the middle/outer ring, while the best prospects for capital growth remain in sub-$500,000 markets.

Demand for Existing Housing (current expectations)

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

Middle/Outer Ring Apartments (>4stories)

Middle/Outer Ring Low Rise

Apartments (<4 stories) &

Townhouses

Inner City Apartments (>4 stories)

CBD Apartments

Middle/Outer Ring Detached/Semi-

Detached Houses

Inner City Low Rise Apartments (<4stories) & Townhouses

Inner City Detached/Semi-Detached

Houses

Jun-11

Mar-11

Poor Fair Good Very Good Excellent

Expected Capital Growth by Cost Category

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

$5,000,001+

$2,000,001 - $5,000,000

$1,000,001 - $2,000,000

$750,001 - $1,000,000

$500,001 - $750,000

$250,001 - $500,000

Less than $250,000 Houses

Apartments

Poor Fair Good Very Good Excellent

In June, demand for inner city houses was the only property type classified as “good”, with demand for all other property types categorised as“fair”. There was also a notable deterioration in demand for all types of property compared with our previous survey, with middle/outer ringproperties experiencing the biggest declines. Demand for existing residential property is expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next 12months. According to our survey respondents, demand for inner city housing will remain “good”, with demand for all other property typesexpected to remain only “fair”. In all these property categories, however, demand is expected to be slightly stronger than is the case now.

According to our respondents capital growth expectations were stronger for existing houses than apartments in June. Sub-$500,000 propertiesare tipped to be the best performers over the next 12 months in both housing and apartment markets, while prospects for properties between$500,000 and $2 million are assessed as “fair”. However, conditions in the $2 million-plus property market are judged as “poor”, which isconsistent with recent data showing that premium sector property prices are under-performing the national average by some margin.

Rising interest rates replaced access to credit as the biggestimpediment for purchasing existing property in June and is now alsoidentified as a bigger constraint than in our previous survey.Nationwide, rising interest rates were classified as a “significant”constraint, but considered to be “very significant” in SA/NT andQueensland. Access to credit was seen as the next biggestimpediment, but marginally less so than in March. SA/NT was againthe most pessimistic state.

Concerns over house price levels also increased slightly in Junedespite the recent slow down in house price growth. With interest rateconcerns rising, this suggests that affordability may become a biggerissue in the market for existing property.

Employment security was also listed as a “significant” constraint,despite continued (albeit temporarily slowing) employment growth and

falling unemployment. However, the extent of concern overemployment security was marginally less than in the March quarter.

In contrast, relative returns on other investments and lack of stockwere considered to be only “somewhat significant” in June.

Rising interest rates replaces access to credit as biggest concern.

Major Constraints on Existing Residential Property

0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50

Lack of Stock

Relative Returns on Other

Investments

Employment Security

Level of Prices

Access to Credit

Rising Interest Rates

Jun-11

Mar-11

Not At AllSignificant

Somewhat

SignificantSignificant Very

Significant

Not VerySignificant




5

Gladstone (Qld) continues to be most nominated response with regard to capital

growth expectations.

With regard to the Australian residential property market, our survey

respondents were asked to nominate which three suburbs/cities theybelieve will grow fastest in terms of capital values over the next 12months.

For the third consecutive quarter, the harbour town of Gladstone (Qld)was the most nominated response - and by a considerable margin -benefiting from the massive investments in coal-seam gas.

Queensland continues to be well represented in our sample, with othernominations including Ipswich, Rockhampton and Mackay.

Elsewhere, respondents also identified Liverpool (NSW), Marrickville(NSW), Redfern (NSW), Footscray (Vic), Richmond (Vic), Mornington(Vic) and Perth (WA) as other suburbs/cities that were expected toenjoy above average capital growth over the next year

About the SurveyIn April 2010, NAB launched the inaugural NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey with the aim of developing Australia’s pre-eminent survey of market conditions in the Commercial Property market. The large external panel of respondents consisted of Real EstateAgents/Managers, Property Developers, Asset/Fund Managers and Owners/Investors. Given the large number of respondents who are alsodirectly exposed to the residential market, NAB expanded the survey questionnaire to focus more extensively on the Australian Residentialmarket. The breakdown of our survey respondents for the June quarter 2011 Survey - by location, property sector and business type - areshown below.

Respondents by State

SA/NT

6%

Queensland

23%New South

Wales

30%

Victoria

24%

ACT

4%

Tasmania

2%Western

Australia

11%

Respondents by Property Sector

Hotels/

Entertainment

5%

Other

4%Infrastructure

2%

Residential

Property

43%

Industrial

Property

13%

Retail

Property

16%

Office

Property

17%

Respondents by Business Type

Asset Managers/

Property

Operators

14%

Valuers

6%

Fund Managers

(Real Estate)

3%Owners/Investors

in Real Property

18%

Property

Developers

19%

Real Estate

Agents and

Managers

40%

Gladstone

Footscray

Ipswich

Mornington

Perth

Mackay

Rockhampton

Richmond

Liverpool

Marrickville

Redfern




6

Macroeconomic, Industry & Markets Research

Australia

Alan Oster Group Chief Economist +(61 3) 8634 2927

Jacqui Brand Personal Assistant +(61 3) 8634 2181

Rob Brooker Head of Australian Economics & Commodities +(61 3) 8634 1663Alexandra Knight Economist - Australia +(61 3) 9208 8035

Ben Westmore Economist - Australia & Commodities +(61 3) 8634 8602

Michael Creed Economist - Agribusiness +(61 3) 8634 3470

Dean Pearson Head of Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2331

Robert De Iure Senior Economist - Property +(61 3) 8634 4611

Gerard Burg Economist - Industry Analysis +(61 3) 8634 2788

Brien McDonald Economist - Industry Analysis & Risk Metrics +(61 3) 8634 3837

Tom Taylor Head of International Economics +(61 3) 8634 1883

John Sharma Economist - Country Risk +(61 3) 8634 4514

Tony Kelly Economist - International +(61 3) 9208 5049

James Glenn Economist - International +(61 3) 9208 8129

Global Markets Research - Wholesale Banking

Peter Jolly Head of Markets Research +(61 2) 9237 1406

Robert Henderson Chief Economist Markets - Australia +(61 2) 9237 1836

Spiros Papadopoulos Senior Economist - Markets +(61 3) 8641 0978

David de Garis Senior Economist - Markets +(61 3) 8641 3045

New ZealandTony Alexander Chief Economist - BNZ +(64 4) 474 6744Stephen Toplis Head of Research, NZ +(64 4) 474 6905Craig Ebert Senior Economist, NZ +(64 4) 474 6799Doug Steel Markets Economist, NZ +(64 4) 474 6923

LondonTom Vosa Head of Market Economics - Europe +(44 20) 7710 1573David Tinsley Market Economist - Europe +(44 20) 7710 2910

Foreign Exchange Fixed Interest/Derivatives

Sydney +800 9295 1100 +(61 2) 9295 1166

Melbourne +800 842 3301 +(61 3) 9277 3321

Wellington +800 64 642 222 +800 64 644 464

London +800 747 4615 +(44 20) 7796 4761

New York +1 800 125 602 +1877 377 5480

Singapore +(65) 338 0019 +(65) 338 1789

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Nab Residential Property Survey June 11

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