Myanmar 2015 political landscape 

Thet Aung Min LattManaging DirectorDiamond Intelligence Co., Ltdwww.diamondconsultantgroup.com

AmCham/DFDL

The Key Players

The Military

USDP

NLD

Ethnic political parties

The Military

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

General Wai Lwin

General Kyaw Swe Chief of Staff DSA 22 VCiC

General Mya Tun Oo - 2010 DSA principal

General Nyo Saw - DSA principals 2011

Total 13 Generals might resign

The Military

Regional Commanders in the news

USDP

U Thein Sein – current president

U Thura Shwe Mann – current speaker of the house

U Htay Oo – Vice chairman of USDP

NLD

Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

Ethnic political parties

Rakhine National Party

U Aung Thar Aung

Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (white tiger)

Sai Ai Pao

SNLD

Khun Htun Oo

The Election

USDP

NLD

The Military 25%

Ethnic political parties

USDP

West policy

Party Congress (President and MPs)

Rebuilding image

Controversial Ministers, MPs

Collective vision

Minor business interest conflict

Military quarterly meeting time and USDP congress meeting time

NLD

NLD congress

Lack of MPs for election BIG challenge

The management committee

Would like to choose Youth and Women

Ethnic political parties

Likely to win major vote in ethnic region

Shan, Rahkine and Mon

United Nationalities Alliance don’t have agreement with NLD for 2015 election

The Military

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing

Recent visit

Last year – Korea, Japan

This year – Pakistan, Serbia, UAE

Good relationship with Thai army

Building diplomatic image

Rebuild Myanmar army image during Kokant conflict

The government after election

President

Vice President

Speaker of the house

Commander in Chief

permanent secretary

permanent secretaries will run the government

During prepare for election and after the election

permanent secretary

www.moi.gov.mm

Major initiatives

2015

2016 – Very likely to become coalition government

USDP, NLD, ethnic parties

2017 – Likely to prove new bills, effective government

Issues

Instability - Internal

Rise of Labor Union – example Zawtika project

Instability – External

Ethnic armies current conflict with army

North, Northern Shan, West

Anti Muslim movement

New tension in Kayah with KNPP, UWSA

Ethnic

Ethnic party and armed group interest

2008 Constitution Appendix I and II changes

Their resources for their region

Their region with their leader as Chief Minister

What the government is Doing

Stability

Electricity for Rakhine state

Not accepting yet AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

The armed conflict

KNU 1988 to 2012

KIA Ceasefire 1994 to 2011

MNDAA 1989 to 2009, 2015

AA 2009

East and West conflict zones

Ethnic army

Ethnic arm group conference request

AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

Changes

2008 Constitution changes

10 June 2015 proposed by USDP MP

U Thein Zaw (Shwe Mann back)

Proposing 2008 changes 59

(d)  shall be well acquainted with the affairs of the Union such as political, administrative, economic and military;

(d)  shall be well acquainted with the affairs of the Union such as political, administrative, economic and defense;

Proposing 2008 changes 59

(f)  shall he himself, one of the parents, the spouse, one of the legitimate children or their spouses not owe allegiance to a foreign power, not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled to enjoy the rights and privileges of a subject of a foreign government or citizen of a foreign country;

Removed: one of the legitimate children or their spouses

Failed

Proposing 2008 changes 436

75% to 70%

Failed

Proposing 2008 changes 261

Chief Minister of the Region or State will be elected by vote of their MPs of representative parliament.

Failed

Proposing 2008 changes 1,2,3,5

SCHEDULE ONE

Union Legislative List

SCHEDULE TWO

Region or State Legislative List

SCHEDULE THREEList of Legislation of the Leading Body of Self-Administered Division or Self-Administered Area

SCHEDULE FIVETaxes Collected by Region or States (2% in this session)

The game

Strategies in Myanmar politics

Add new players

Change the issue position of players

Change the power of players

Change the priority of players

Recommendation

Effective CSR

Environmental

Employee

Emergency plan review

External Communication (PR)

Constitution changes; president, tax, security

Thanks

Q&A

Thet Aung Min Latt

Managing Director

Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd

www.diamondconsultantgroup.com