Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference Wealth Management Morgan Stanley European Financials...
Transcript of Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference Wealth Management Morgan Stanley European Financials...
International Wealth Management
Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference
March 21, 2017
Iqbal Khan, CEO International Wealth Management
As announced on March 24, 2017, we updated our previously reported unaudited financial results for 4Q16 and 2016. This revised presentation has been updated to reflect changes to assets under management and does not update or modify any other information contained in the presentation originally published on March 21, 2017 that does not relate to these changes. Specifically, terms such as “to date”, “current” or similar language used herein refers to the time at which these statements were originally made. For further information, please refer to our revised fourth quarter earnings release 2016.
Disclaimer
March 21, 2017 Iqbal Khan, CEO International Wealth Management 2
Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and we might not be able to achieve the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes we describe or imply in forward-looking statements. A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions we express in these forward-looking statements, including those we identify in "Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015 and in “Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking information" in our fourth quarter earnings release 2016 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and in other public filings and press releases. We do not intend to update these forward-looking statements except as may be required by applicable law.
In particular, the terms “Illustrative”, “Ambition”, “Outlook” and “Goal” are not intended to be viewed as targets or projections, nor are they considered to be Key Performance Indicators. All such illustrations, ambitions and goals are subject to a large number of inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, many of which are completely outside of our control. Accordingly, this information should not be relied on for any purpose. We do not intend to update these illustrations, ambitions or goals.
We may not achieve the benefits of our strategic initiatives We may not achieve all of the expected benefits of our strategic initiatives. Factors beyond our control, including but not limited to the market and economic conditions, changes in laws, rules or regulations and other challenges discussed in our public filings, could limit our ability to achieve some or all of the expected benefits of these initiatives.
Estimates and assumptions
In preparing this presentation, management has made estimates and assumptions that affect the numbers presented. Actual results may differ. Figures throughout presentation may also be subject to rounding adjustments.
Statement regarding non-GAAP financial measures
This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted results. Information needed to reconcile such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures under US GAAP can be found in this presentation in the Appendix, which is available on our website at credit-suisse.com.
Statement regarding capital, liquidity and leverage
As of January 1, 2013, Basel III was implemented in Switzerland along with the Swiss “Too Big to Fail” legislation and regulations thereunder (in each case, subject to certain phase-in periods). As of January 1, 2015, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) leverage ratio framework, as issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), was implemented in Switzerland by FINMA. Our related disclosures are in accordance with our interpretation of such requirements, including relevant assumptions. Changes in the interpretation of these requirements in Switzerland or in any of our assumptions or estimates could result in different numbers from those shown in this presentation. Capital and ratio numbers for periods prior to 2013 are based on estimates, which are calculated as if the Basel III framework had been in place in Switzerland during such periods.
Unless otherwise noted, leverage exposure is based on the BIS leverage ratio framework and consists of period-end balance sheet assets and prescribed regulatory adjustments. Beginning in 2015, the Swiss leverage ratio is calculated as Swiss total capital, divided by period-end leverage exposure. The look-through BIS tier 1 leverage ratio and CET1 leverage ratio are calculated as look-through BIS tier 1 capital and CET1 capital, respectively, divided by end-period leverage exposure.
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1
2
International Wealth Management – An attractive business
Successfully executing our Strategy in 2016
Appendix
IWM is a key pillar of Credits Suisse's growth strategy with a low
consumption of resources and risks
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IWM contribution1 in CHF and %
Net
revenues
21.1 bn
22%
4.6 bn
Risk-
weighted
assets
223 bn
Leverage
exposure
845 bn
Pre-tax
income
4.2 bn
Note: Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to reported results is included in the Appendix 1 Divisional contribution in 2016 to adjusted Credit Suisse Core Results; net revenues and pre-tax income excluding Corporate Center; risk-weighted assets and leverage exposure on BIS "look-through" basis
26%
1.1 bn
16%
35 bn
11%
94 bn
International
Wealth
Management
Other
Divisions
Legend:
International Wealth Management Private Banking (PB)
A leading international franchise with an attractive growth outlook
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1 CAGR, 2016 though 2018E as per 'Credit Suisse and McKinsey Wealth Pools 2016' 2 Euromoney Magazine Survey 2016 for 'Best Private Banking Services Overall' 3 Excluding Switzerland; AuM and NNA growth including International Private Clients business area,
which services lower wealth band clients, predominantly from Europe UHNW = Ultra-High-Net-Worth (personal wealth of over CHF 200 mn or AuM with Credit Suisse of over CHF 50 mn)
Credit Suisse 2016 in CHF
Revenue growth
Assets u. Mgmt.
Market
Estimated market growth rate1
Credit Suisse rank2
UHNW clients
share of AuM
Net new assets growth rate
IWM is in the Top 3 in each of the its regions
Private
Banking
Asia Pacific Switzerland
10% 5%
167 bn
243 bn
323 bn
Western Europe3
(5)%
126 bn
3%
45%
5%
Middle East
17%
77 bn
9%
85%
15%
Latin America
4%
70 bn
7%
60%
(5)%
Emerging Europe
15%
50 bn
8%
70%
7%
Served by other PB divisions
Business model geared towards steady revenue generation
and growth
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Asset
Management
Operating businesses (wholly owned)
328 164 208
2012 2015 2016
804 831 859 873 892
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenues CHF mn
530 291 227
2012 2015 2016
Main
revenue types
Recurring
Management fees Performance &
Placement revenues All revenue types
Investments & Partnerships
Traditional & Alternative asset classes
Private Equity & Hedge Fund structures
Business
clusters
% of total
AuM 2016 82%
265 bn
5% 16 bn
13% 40 bn
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1
2
International Wealth Management – An attractive business
Successfully executing our Strategy in 2016
Appendix
Private Banking is a fast growing business, especially in Emerging Markets
where 1st generation Entrepreneurs drive a large proportion of the growth
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5th+
5%
4th
7%
3rd
12%
2nd
16%
1st
61%
4th
9%
3rd
14%
5th+
0%
2nd
9%
1st
68%
Emerging Europe & Middle East2 Latin America2
Wealth ownership by generation Wealth ownership by generation
Emerging Markets1 private wealth in CHF trn
1 Source: Estimates by Credit Suisse and McKinsey Wealth Pools 2016 2 Source: Estimates by Credit Suisse Research Institute 2015 Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Mature Markets1 private wealth in CHF trn
2020
24
19
5
2016
20
16
4
2020
18
11
7
2016
13
8
5
CAGR
+5%
+5%
UHNW
HNW
UHNW
HNW
CAGR
+10%
+9%
Revenue actions driving pre-tax income growth while self-funding
important growth investments
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IWM adjusted pre-tax income roll-forward 2016 in CHF bn
1.1
1.0
2016 2015
Revenue
actions Growth
investments
'Self-funded' growth
Simplified view
Savings
Macro & credit provisions
+9%
Note: Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to reported results is included in the Appendix;
We have gathered strong net new assets while maintaining higher margins
despite continued regularization impact…
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2016 2015
Net new assets growth rate 5.4% (0.9)%
Net new assets 15.6 (3.0)
Regularization outflows (5.7) (3.4)
109 107 106 110
2013 2014 2015 2016
23 26 27 27
2013 2014 2015 2016
Private Banking adjusted gross margin on average AuM in basis points
Private Banking adjusted net margin on average AuM in basis points
Note: Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to reported results is included in the Appendix; Gross and net margin in 2015 also excluding extraordinary SIX dividend of CHF 23 mn; Gross margin = adjusted net revenues / average AuM; net margin = adjusted pre-tax income / average AuM 1 Including International Private Clients business area, which services lower wealth band clients, predominantly from Europe
14.6
6.7
Gross inflows
21.3
Emerging markets
Europe1
0.4
Private Banking net new assets in CHF bn
Assets under Management 323 299 +12%
Additional focus on strategic clients has proven successful in 2016
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2015 2016
Strong increase in revenues
for strategic clients
~40%
Strategic clients = targeted strategic UHNW/Entrepreneur clients of IWM 1 Excluding regularization outflows of CHF 3.5 bn 2 Does not include revenues booked in divisions other than IWM
Strong gross margin2
for strategic clients in basis points
43
50
2015 2016
Strong net new assets for strategic clients
2016 net new assets in CHF bn
12.8
8.5 21.3
Total Other clients Strategic
clients
~60% of inflows from strategic clients
before regularization1
+7
Collaboration with Investment Banking businesses is key in servicing
complex client needs
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Integrated Coverage Structured Products
Solution Comprehensive and innovative approach
by IWM & IB businesses
Sole book runner of GBP 1.0 bn for the largest ever Food & Beverages sector sell-down
Client Eastern European strategic client with net worth of >USD 3bn & diverse investments
Need Partial monetization of GBP 2.1 bn stake of a global beverages company
Solution Proactive approach, close monitoring of market conditions to optimize structuring
Early renewal of existing note (USD 1bn with duration into late 2017), utilizing attractive market conditions and refinancing terms offered by Credit Suisse
Client Top Middle Eastern strategic client with USD 13.3bn AuM
Need Existing capped floored floater expiring in September 2016
We are offering differentiating lending capabilities to our existing clients,
while maintaining our credit risk quality and achieving attractive margins
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22 27
14
16 4
4
2015 2016
47
40
Lombard
lending3
Specialty
finance2
Mortgages
~10 bps avg. annual loss rate through the cycle4
94% investment grade and regionally
diversified credit exposure6 (stable vs. 2015)
Loan portfolio over 99% on a secured basis
Impaired loans /gross loans ratio at 0.76 bps
~45% of loan portfolio with UHNW clients (and ~70% in Emerging Markets)
Mortgages: Mostly residential located in CH and selected international locations (UK, FR, IT)
Lombard:
− ~70% secured lending based on standard lending parameters
− ~30% non-standard / share-backed lending solutions offered to UHNW clients
~3 bps ~120 bps
~17 bps ~220 bps
Avg. annual
loss rate4
Gross loan
revenue margin5
~2 bps ~170 bps
+16%
1 Before deducting valuation allowances and deferred fees & costs 2 Includes ship, aviation and export finance 3 Includes secured lending solutions based on standard lending parameters, i.e. standard lombard facilities, across all asset classes including portfolio of cash,
bonds, equities, funds, structured products, universal life policies and real estate mortgages 4 From 2003 through 2014 for mortgages, from 2006 through 2015 for aviation finance, from 2001 through 2015 for export finance and from 2002 through 2015 for ship finance and lombard lending 5 2016, client rate net of reference rate over average loan volume 6 Transaction rating as per the internal rating system
Credit volume1 in CHF bn Quality loan portfolio 2016 (unless mentioned differently)
Lending is instrumental in serving clients holistically, looking at both the
client's asset and liabilities
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Structured Lending
Solution Lead arranger of USD 1.55bn bridge loan
High speed of execution
Highlighting Credit Suisse's expertise &
capabilities
Client Middle Eastern (ME) UHNW client
Need Acquisition of one of the largest Food &
Beverage companies in the Middle East
Structured Lending
Solution Tailor-made credit facility, secured by local shares, global equities, real estate funds and private equity / hedge funds
Risk mitigation of concentrated portfolio
Client ME UHNW client with substantial AuM and investments across industries & geographies
Need USD 700mn refinancing of local investment portfolio
We have increased quality hiring in targeted markets, leading to
higher productivity
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2016
495
2015
550
2016
645
2015
630
Increased hiring gross number of RM1
Note: Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to reported results is included in the Appendix. 1 164 RM of 190 RM joined in 2016 2 Including International Private Clients business area, which services lower wealth band clients, predominantly from Europe 3 Including RM not allocated to regional business area
Rebalancing resources number of RM Enhanced RM productivity in CHF mn
AuM per RM Adjusted net
revenues per RM Europe2 Emerging
markets3
(55)
+15
190
152
2016
~25%
2015 2016
284
2015
245
+16% +7%
2016
2.91
2015
2.72
Enhancing key Compliance & Risk processes during 2016 to ensure
compliant profitable growth
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Protecting the franchise and reputation while
increasing control effectiveness & efficiency
Client Risks Processes &
Simplification Technology People Risks
Summary
Successfully executing our strategy in 2016
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Strong PB NNA of CHF 15.6 bn at annualized growth rate of 5%
Net new lending of CHF 4.1 bn at attractive revenue margin
Strategic clients revenues up ~40% at higher gross margin
Hired 190 RM1 (up 25%) with focus on quality
AM adjusted PTI up 54% with CHF 9.9 bn NNA2
Invested in Risk & Compliance and aligned regionally
Growth investments funded by expense savings
Serving clients' financing needs
Growing strategic client base
Targeted RM hiring
Improved contribution from AM
Building operating leverage
Strengthened IWM oversight
Turnaround in PB asset inflows
Note: Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to reported results is included in the Appendix
1 164 RM of 190 RM joined in 2016 2 Excluding single client outflow of CHF 4.3bn in 2Q16
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1 Credit Suisse – International Wealth Management
Appendix
2 Successfully Executing Our Strategy in 2016
Increase in loan and deposit volumes at higher margins drove
increase in net interest income
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1,006
~60
Fund transfer
pricing changes
Business impact 2015 2016
IWM PB net interest income by source in CHF mn
Higher loan volumes at higher margins
Higher deposit volumes at higher margins
Asset / Liability measures (e.g., NSFR optimization)
Other (e.g., higher loan origination fees, SIX dividend)
+16% 46.6 40.0 Credit volumes in CHF bn
+9% 78.6 72.2 Deposit volumes in CHF bn
NSFR = Net Stable Funding Ratio
Simplified view
1,306
Reconciliation of adjustment items (1/2)
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IWM AM in CHF mn GM in USD mn IBCM in USD mn
4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
Net revenues reported 381 292 365 1,327 1,328 1,256 1,396 1,168 5,575 7,124 569 479 418 2,001 1,857
Fair value on own debt - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Real estate gains - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(Gains)/losses on business sales - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net revenues adjusted 381 292 365 1,327 1,328 1,256 1,396 1,168 5,575 7,124 569 479 418 2,001 1,857
Provision for credit losses - - - - - (3) (6) (4) (4) 11 (1) (9) - 20 -
Total operating expenses reported 278 243 330 1,047 1,146 1,250 1,310 4,517 5,522 9,004 422 449 902 1,713 2,170
Goodwill impairment - - - - - - - (2,690) - (2,690) - - (384) - (384)
Restructuring expenses (5) (2) (4) (7) (4) (14) (52) (97) (220) (97) 6 (16) (22) (29) (22)
Major litigation provisions - - - - - - (7) (51) (7) (240) - - - - -
Total operating expenses adjusted 273 241 326 1,040 1,142 1,236 1,251 1,679 5,295 5,977 428 433 496 1,684 1,764
Pre-tax income/(loss) reported 103 49 35 280 182 9 92 (3,345) 57 (1,891) 148 39 (484) 268 (313)
Total adjustments 5 2 4 7 4 14 59 2,838 227 3,027 (6) 16 406 29 406
Pre-tax income/(loss) adjusted 108 51 39 287 186 23 151 (507) 284 1,136 142 55 (78) 297 93
Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures that exclude goodwill impairment and certain other revenues and expenses included in our reported results. Management believes that adjusted results provide a useful presentation of our operating results for purposes of assessing our Group and divisional performance consistently over time, on a basis that excludes items that management does not consider repre-sentative of our underlying performance. Provided below is a reconciliation of our adjusted results to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures.
SUB PB in CHF mn IWM PB in CHF mn APAC PB in CHF mn
4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
Net revenues reported 858 1,160 963 3,704 3,696 918 789 808 3,371 3,224 372 346 271 1,374 1,178
Fair value on own debt - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Real estate gains (20) (346) (72) (366) (95) (54) - - (54) - - - - - -
(Gains)/losses on business sales - - (10) - (10) - - (11) - (11) - - - - -
Net revenues adjusted 838 814 881 3,338 3,591 864 789 797 3,317 3,213 372 346 271 1,374 1,178
Provision for credit losses 10 13 14 39 49 6 - (7) 20 5 9 38 (5) 32 18
Total operating expenses reported 654 603 784 2,471 2,772 684 593 874 2,510 2,678 267 242 228 970 816
Goodwill impairment - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Restructuring expenses 3 (16) (33) (51) (33) (11) (13) (32) (47) (32) (1) (3) (1) (4) (1)
Major litigation provisions - - (25) - (25) (7) 19 (228) 12 (268) - - (6) - (6)
Total operating expenses adjusted 657 587 726 2,420 2,714 666 599 614 2,475 2,378 266 239 221 966 809
Pre-tax income/(loss) reported 194 544 165 1,194 875 228 196 (59) 841 541 96 66 48 372 344
Total adjustments (23) (330) (24) (315) (47) (36) (6) 249 (19) 289 1 3 7 4 7
Pre-tax income/(loss) adjusted 171 214 141 879 828 192 190 190 822 830 97 69 55 376 351
Reconciliation of adjustment items (2/2)
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SUB C&IB in CHF mn APAC IB in CHF mn APAC IB in USD mn
4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015 4Q16 3Q16 4Q15 2016 2015
Net revenues reported 541 507 532 2,055 2,025 490 571 555 2,223 2,661 487 587 552 2,259 2,773
Fair value on own debt - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Real estate gains - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(Gains)/losses on business sales - - (13) - (13) - - - - - - - - - -
Net revenues adjusted 541 507 519 2,055 2,012 490 571 555 2,223 2,661 487 587 552 2,259 2,773
Provision for credit losses 24 17 29 40 89 2 (4) 8 (6) 17 2 (5) 8 (7) 17
Total operating expenses reported 329 276 304 1,184 1,136 481 489 1,212 1,876 2,611 477 504 1,221 1,901 2,691
Goodwill impairment - - - - - - - (756) - (756) - - (765) - (765)
Restructuring expenses - (3) (9) (9) (9) (18) (20) (2) (49) (2) (18) (21) (2) (50) (2)
Major litigation provisions (19) - - (19) - - - - - - - - - - -
Total operating expenses adjusted 310 273 295 1,156 1,127 463 469 454 1,827 1,853 459 483 454 1,851 1,924
Pre-tax income/(loss) reported 188 214 199 831 800 7 86 (665) 353 33 8 88 (677) 365 65
Total adjustments 19 3 (4) 28 (4) 18 20 758 49 758 18 21 767 50 767
Pre-tax income/(loss) adjusted 207 217 195 859 796 25 106 93 402 791 26 109 90 415 832
Adjusted results are non-GAAP financial measures that exclude goodwill impairment and certain other revenues and expenses included in our reported results. Management believes that adjusted results provide a useful presentation of our operating results for purposes of assessing our Group and divisional performance consistently over time, on a basis that excludes items that management does not consider repre-sentative of our underlying performance. Provided below is a reconciliation of our adjusted results to the most directly comparable US GAAP measures.
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