Montgomery County Travel Forecasting Model Validation — Status Report — Status Report Presented...
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Transcript of Montgomery County Travel Forecasting Model Validation — Status Report — Status Report Presented...
Montgomery Montgomery County Travel County Travel
Forecasting Model Forecasting Model ValidationValidation
— — Status ReportStatus ReportPresented To:Presented To:
TPB Travel Forecasting SubcommitteeTPB Travel Forecasting Subcommittee
By:By:Montgomery County Department of Park and PlanningMontgomery County Department of Park and Planning
M-NCPPCM-NCPPC
March 18, 2005March 18, 2005 Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
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Germantown
Planning AreasGermantown PAMajor Roads
Planning AreasMontgomery County, MD.
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Montgomery County Demographic FactsMontgomery County Demographic Facts
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Year 2000Year 2000
HH Pop. Total Pop.
Population:Population: 863,910863,910 873,341873,341
Adj. Emp.(a) Total Emp.
Employment:Employment: 475,020475,020 479,800479,800
Note: (a) Applied MWCOG Employment Adjustment Factor: 0.99
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Total Population Density: 2003by Planning AreaMontgomery County, MD
Each dot represents 500 people.Dots show average density withineach area, not exact locations.
2003 Household Population: 914,900
Planning Area
Major Roads
# 1 Dot = 500 people
Source: 2003 Census Update SurveyResearch & Technology Center, M-NCPPC
2002 Median Household Income: $79,115
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Source: 2003 Census Update SurveyResearch & Technology Center, M-NCPPC
by Planning Forecast AreasMontgomery Couty, MD
2002 Median Household Income
2002 Median Household IncomeBelow $49,999$50,000 - $79,114$79,115 - $99,999$100,000 & above
Montgomery County’s TRAVEL/2 ModelMontgomery County’s TRAVEL/2 Model
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
4-Step Model
EMME/2
PM Peak only
Validation Year: 1998
Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model?Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model?
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Cost savings and more sharing of resourcesCost savings and more sharing of resources – – As the MPO of the region, MWCOG is federally funded and has the ability to devote more resources (staff and funds) in support of travel forecasting than Montgomery County.
• Consistency with the regional processConsistency with the regional process – – Direct access to regional networks and data prepared for other jurisdictions in the region.
• More input to MWCOG’s processMore input to MWCOG’s process – – More of an opportunity to develop and review inputs to the MWCOG process.
Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model?Why Adopt MWCOG’s Model? (Continue)(Continue)
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• CredibilityCredibility – – MWCOG goes through a very rigorous peer-review process and must meet federal requirement for travel modeling.
• Better integration with GISBetter integration with GIS – – TP+ has ability to read ArcGIS shape files. MWCOG has developed numerous tools & databases to support data exchange between travel model and GIS.
• Tech & Knowledge SharingTech & Knowledge Sharing – Base of local users, including MWCOG, BMC and several local jurisdictions would permit the sharing of techniques and knowledge.
Converting Converting MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• ZonesZones
– – 318 TAZ vs. MWCOG’s 308 TAZ in Montgomery Co.
–– Additional zones due to Takoma Park annexation in 1997 (Montgomery and Prince George’s county boundary change); more details around Metro stations
• Demographic DataDemographic Data
– – Cooperative Forecasting Round 6.4A by 318 TAZ, with jurisdictional employment adjustment factor (0.99 for Montgomery County)
Converting Converting MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000 MWCOG’s V2.1D Model 2000 (Continue)(Continue)
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• NetworkNetwork
– – HighwayHighway: : more links & attributes in Montgomery County; and some updates/corrections
outside of the county
– – TransitTransit: : Modifications required to accommodate highway network changes
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Montgomery County TAZ and Montgomery County TAZ and Highway Network 2000 by Facility Highway Network 2000 by Facility
TypeType
Model Validation AdjustmentsModel Validation Adjustments
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• AdjustmentsAdjustments
(1) Trip Generation Adjustment Factors – HBW
(at Census Tract level)
(2) Trip Distribution K-factors – HBW
(at “Super District” Level, 12 in Montgomery Co.)
(3) Trip Generation Factors – HBS, HBO, NHB
(4) Highway Network Coding – US29, etc.
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Model Validation DataModel Validation Data
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• DataData: : CTPP 2000 & Screenline Counts
1.69 1.57 1.57 1.58 N/A
AUTO MOTORCYCLE TRANSIT WALK Work at Home
79.8% 0.5% 12.6% 2.2% 4.9%
Montgomery County CTPP 2000 Adjustment Factors *
* Census Adjustment Factors to convert workers to trips (based on Metro Area Pop. 500K-1000K)
CTPP 2000 DataCTPP 2000 DataWorker to Trips ConversionWorker to Trips Conversion
• Based on <publication>
• Determine modal composition of workers (CTPP)
• Determine metro area size
• Choose appropriate factors
Absenteeism
Mode Shift
Multiple Trips
• Assume trip chaining factor = 2.0 (daily model)
• Calculate composite conversion factors
Model Validation TestsModel Validation Tests
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Other Tests on AdjustmentsOther Tests on Adjustments::
Trip Generation Factors – HBW P’s
Tried only adjust Productions using trip distribution table and decided to adjust both P’s and A’s using TG tables
Trip Distribution K-factors – HBS, HBO, NHB
Tried and decided not to adjust non-work purposes
Model Validation Findings/ResultsModel Validation Findings/Results
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Corrected general underestimation of Corrected general underestimation of commuter travel commuter travel
Within County
To/from Prince Georges and Frederick
From DC
• Non-work travel??Non-work travel??
Model Validation Findings/ResultsModel Validation Findings/Results
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Changes in trip purpose mixChanges in trip purpose mix (graphics to (graphics to follow)follow)
Model Validation Findings/ResultsModel Validation Findings/ResultsCommutersCommuters
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Comparison of CTPP 2000 and Estimated TravelComparison of CTPP 2000 and Estimated Travel
Montgomery CountyMontgomery County
HBW Trips I-I Trips I-X Trips X-I Trips
CTPP 2000 411,111 286,042 232,424
Model-Before 295,734 300,346 128,741
E/O%-Before -28.06% 5.00% -44.61%
Model-After 419,332 299,950 222,698
E/O%-After 2.00% 2.86% -4.18%
Model Validation Measure - TLFModel Validation Measure - TLF
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Commuter Trip Length Frequency Commuter Trip Length Frequency - shorter- shorter
HBW Trip Length Distribution -- All Inc. (Run_B)Montgomery County Only
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141
Composite Impedance (min.)
Pct.
of
Tri
ps
33.10 37.3832.80 38.43HTS94 =CTPP2000 =
MWCOG2.1Dx50 =Model Run_B =
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Next StepsNext Steps
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Mode Choice Model ValidationMode Choice Model Validation
• Traffic Assignment ValidationTraffic Assignment Validation
• Comparison with TRAVEL/2 PM Peak ModelComparison with TRAVEL/2 PM Peak Model
Challenges/Lessons LearnedChallenges/Lessons Learned
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• Data, Data, Data!Data, Data, Data!
• Network, Network, Network!Network, Network, Network!
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
• MWCOGMWCOG
– – data files, discussion, & technical supportdata files, discussion, & technical support
• Consultant Michael Baker Jr. ,Inc.Consultant Michael Baker Jr. ,Inc.
– – technical guidance, data, & model validationtechnical guidance, data, & model validation
• M-NCPPCM-NCPPC Prince George’s County StaffPrince George’s County Staff
– – sharing ideas and data, & commentssharing ideas and data, & comments
• M-NCPPCM-NCPPC Montgomery County Modeling StaffMontgomery County Modeling Staff
– – Yetta McDaniel and Ronald Vaughn Yetta McDaniel and Ronald Vaughn (Network/GIS/Counts)
Questions?Questions?
Countywide Planning Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
??