Monetary Policy Update September 2011
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Monetary Policy Update September 2011
description
Monetary Policy Update September 2011. Repo-rate increases postponed. Turbulence in the financial markets. Stock market index, 3 January 2006 = 100. Source: Reuters EcoWin. Major problems with public finances. Public debt as percentage of GDP. Source: IMF WEO April 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Monetary Policy Update September 2011
Monetary PolicyUpdate
September 2011
Repo-rate increases postponed
Turbulence in the financial markets
Stock market index, 3 January 2006 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWin
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden (OMXS)
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
USA (S&P 500)
Emerging markets (MSCI)
Major problems with public finances
Public debt as percentage of GDP Source: IMF WEO April 2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
USA
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Declining confidence abroad
Purchasing managers’ index, manufacturing industry, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Markit Economics
30
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Euro area
USA
The World
Global growth holding up
GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Euro area
USA
The World
Cautious Swedish households and companies
Confidence indicators for households and the total business sector, net figures, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: NIER
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Households
Business sector
Slower Swedish growth in the short term
GDP, quarterly percentage change as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Mean 2000 Q1 – 2011 Q2
Slow improvement in the labour market
Unemployment, percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
September
July
Wage increases compatible with the inflation target
Nominal wages, annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Mean 1998 -2011 Q1
Low inflationary pressures
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
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3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPICPIFCPIF excluding energy
Lower repo-rate path
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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1
2
3
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5
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7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
July
September
A forecast not a promise
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-1
0
1
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3
4
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8
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Repo-rate increases postponed
