Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E ’s Non ... · Major Components for Non Residential...
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Antitrust/Competition Commercial Damages Environmental Litigation and Regulation Forensic Economics Intellectual Property International Arbitration International Trade Product Liability Regulatory Finance and Accounting Risk Management Securities Tax Utility Regulatory Policy and Ratemaking Valuation Electric Power Financial Institutions Natural Gas Petroleum Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Biotechnology Telecommunications and Media Transportation Copyright © 2010 The Brattle Group, Inc. www.brattle.com Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E ’s Non-Residential DR Programs 2010 - 2020 Presented by Joe Wharton, The Brattle Group Presented to Demand Response Load Impact Workshop Sponsored by the California Demand Response Measurement and Evaluation Committee (DRMEC) May 13, 2010
Transcript of Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E ’s Non ... · Major Components for Non Residential...
Antitrust/Competition Commercial Damages Environmental Litigation and Regulation Forensic Economics Intellectual Property International ArbitrationInternational Trade Product Liability Regulatory Finance and Accounting Risk Management Securities Tax Utility Regulatory Policy and Ratemaking ValuationElectric Power Financial Institutions Natural Gas Petroleum Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Biotechnology Telecommunications and Media Transportation
Copyright © 2010 The Brattle Group, Inc. www.brattle.com
Modeling the Enrollment Forecasts for PG&E ’s Non-Residential DR Programs
2010 - 2020
Presented by Joe Wharton, The Brattle Group
Presented toDemand Response Load Impact Workshop
Sponsored by the California Demand Response Measurement and Evaluation Committee (DRMEC)
May 13, 2010
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Background
• Key CPUC policy drivers ► Dynamic Pricing Timetable, D.08-07-045 (July 31, 2008)► Adoption of DR Activities and Budgets, D.09-08-027
(Aug. 27, 2009)► PG&E Rate Design Window, D.10-02-10 (Feb. 25, 2010)
• “The Nudge” - Default Peak Day Pricing for all C&I and large Agricultural SA_IDs (customers)
► Customers must choose TOU as alternative rate ► PDP comes with Bill Stabilization for 12 months► Not defaulted if already on an event-based DR program ► Choices modeled on stated preferences from survey
research• Brattle modeled enrollment for 14 other voluntary
non-residential DR programs.
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List of Separate Enrollment Forecasts
Non-Residential ProgramsNo. Non Event-driven1 Permanent Load Shift (PLS)2 TOU Rates (TOU)
Event-driven, not Price-based3 AMP - Day Ahead Notification4 AMP - Day Of Notification5 BIP - Day Of Notication6 CBP - Day Ahead Notification7 CBP - Day Of Notification8 DBP - Day Ahead Notification9 PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Of Notification
10 PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Ahead Notfication11 PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Of Notif ication12 PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Ahead Notification13 SmartAC - Medium and Small
Event-driven and Price-based14 Peak Day Pricing (PDP) - Non-Residential15 SmartRate - Medium and small, ending May 201016 Pre-PDP CPP - Large, ending May 2010
Residential Programs1 TOU Rates - Non event-driven2 SmartAC - Event-driven, non rate-based3 Peak Day Pricing (PDP) - Event-driven and rate-based4 SmartRate - Event-driven and rate-based, ending May 2010
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Overview of Enrollment Forecasting Model
Beyond 16 DR programs, other key components are• Default date sequence
• Large C&I - May 2010• Large Agriculture - February 2011• Medium and small C&I - November 2011
• Growth of Customer Population • Disaggregation of customers up to 192 strata
► 3 Size Classes – note their very different average sizes in Figure below
► 8 Industry Groups► 8 CAISO Local Capacity Areas
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Overview of Enrollment Forecast Model
• Issues in tracking all DR programs simultaneously• Some programs are mutually exclusive, others are
not. Concurrent enrollment numbers are tracked.• Customers are fully allocated to DR programs and
for choice modeling to eligible or ineligible groups• Enrollment process becomes the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Chain
• Forecasts enrollment in a consistent way for all programs
• Increasing the probability of joining a given program will decrease the expected enrollment in mutually exclusive programs appropriately
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System Modeled as a Markov Chain
• Timing for eligibility is tracked by 26 “vintages”► No SmartMeter yet installed ► SmartMeter installed in current month► Installed 13 months ago – customers ready for Default► Installed 25 months ago – end of Bill Stabilization
• Transition Probabilities of Default PDP► With Bill Stabilization, customers in “qualified” categories
either default to PDP (74%), or opt out to TOU (26%).► Qualified: Large, Medium and Small C&I customers and
Large Agriculture customers, not on event based DR programs
► 12 months later, the Bill Stabilization ends and PDP choice drops somewhat (49%) and TOU grows (51%).
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Results: Total Enrollment in Event Based DR Programs Jumps in Nov 2011 – Nov 2012, from PDP
Total Non-Residential Enrollments in Event-Based DR Programs 2010-2020
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Janu
ary-
10
July
-10
Janu
ary-
11
July
-11
Janu
ary-
12
July
-12
Janu
ary-
13
July
-13
Janu
ary-
14
July
-14
Janu
ary-
15
July
-15
Janu
ary-
16
July
-16
Janu
ary-
17
July
-17
Janu
ary-
18
July
-18
Janu
ary-
19
July
-19
Janu
ary-
20
July
-20
Num
ber
of E
nrol
led
Non
-Res
iden
tial S
AID
s
Peak Day Pricing (PDP)
SmartRate
SmartAC
Peak Choice Total
DBP - Day Ahead
CPP - Large
CBP - Day Of
AMP - Day Of
AMP - Day Ahead
CBP - Day Ahead
BIP - Day Of
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Results: Remainder of the Non Residential Population Moves to TOU Rates by 2012
Major Components for Non Residential Customers 2010-2020
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100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Janu
ary-
10
July
-10
Janu
ary-
11
July
-11
Janu
ary-
12
July
-12
Janu
ary-
13
July
-13
Janu
ary-
14
July
-14
Janu
ary-
15
July
-15
Janu
ary-
16
July
-16
Janu
ary-
17
July
-17
Janu
ary-
18
July
-18
Janu
ary-
19
July
-19
Janu
ary-
20
July
-20
Num
ber
of E
nrol
led
Non
-Res
iden
tial S
AID
With SmartMeters but No DR Program or DRRate
TOU Rates -Non-Residential
Sum of Event Based DR Programs
Peak Day Pricing (PDP)
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Results: Ongoing Non-Rate DR Programs Grow Through 2011
AMP, BIP, CBP and DBP2010-2020
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Janu
ary-
10
July
-10
Janu
ary-
11
July
-11
Janu
ary-
12
July
-12
Janu
ary-
13
July
-13
Janu
ary-
14
July
-14
Janu
ary-
15
July
-15
Janu
ary-
16
July
-16
Janu
ary-
17
July
-17
Janu
ary-
18
July
-18
Janu
ary-
19
July
-19
Janu
ary-
20
July
-20
Num
ber
of E
nrol
led
Non
-Res
iden
tial S
AID
s
DBP - Day Ahead
CBP - Day Of
AMP - Day Of
AMP - Day Ahead
CBP - Day Ahead
BIP - Day Of
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Results: Newer Non Rate DR Programs Grow as Well
SmartAC and PeakChoice Options 2010- 2020
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Janu
ary-
09
July
-09
Janu
ary-
10
July
-10
Janu
ary-
11
July
-11
Janu
ary-
12
July
-12
Janu
ary-
13
July
-13
Janu
ary-
14
July
-14
Janu
ary-
15
July
-15
Janu
ary-
16
July
-16
Janu
ary-
17
July
-17
Janu
ary-
18
July
-18
Janu
ary-
19
July
-19
Janu
ary-
20
July
-20
Num
ber
of E
nrol
led
Non
-Res
iden
tial S
AID
s
PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Of PeakChoice - Committed Load, Day Ahead PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Of PeakChoice - Best Efforts, Day Ahead SmartAC
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Conclusion and Discussion
• In Enrollment per se, event-based DR is expected to increase tremendously
► Large customers joining PDP this month May 2010► AMP, CBP and PeakChoice growing thru Summer 2011► Many medium and small customers joining PDP from
November 2011 through late 2012
• Non event-based TOU Enrollment also jumps
• Load Impacts per customer for each these event- and non event-based DR programs are the “rest of the story”
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For Further Information
Dr. Joe WhartonThe Brattle Group
353 Sacramento Street, Ste 1140San Francisco, CA 94111
Ph: 415 217 1000415 515 8259
