Online Higher Education · 5 Access by Age: We have a winner… 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000...
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TEQSA Conference November 28, 2018 Richard Garrett Chief Research Officer- Eduventures & NRCCUA Director- The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education Online Higher Education Trends, Innovation, Significance
Transcript of Online Higher Education · 5 Access by Age: We have a winner… 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000...
TEQSA Conference
November 28, 2018
Richard Garrett
Chief Research Officer- Eduventures & NRCCUA
Director- The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education
Online Higher EducationTrends, Innovation, Significance
Researching Online Higher Education…
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Innovation/Hype
Statistics/Insight
Online will radically improve access, lower costs and
boost outcomes…. Really quickly and easily!!!
In 2017, 15% of undergrads and 30% of grad students
were fully online. We need better data!!!
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Agenda
- Access
- Cost
- Outcomes
- Bottom Line & The Future
ACCESS
The Impact of Online Higher Education
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Access by Age: We have a winner…
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Enrollment of U.S. Undergraduates Aged 25+ in 4-year Schools by % of Undergraduates Fully Online
Zero Very Low (0.1-4.9%) Low (5-9.9%)
Medium (10-24.9%) High (25-49.9%) Very High (50%+)
10%
18%
31%
22%
8%
12%
24%
20%
13%
30%
6%
8%
% Fully Online Undergraduate Enrollment (2016)
Source: Eduventures analysis of U.S. federal IPEDS data.
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Access by Social Groups: who is online convenient for?
5.4%
-4.1%
6.7%
-8.9%
-4.9%
-25.5%
-1.8%
1.8%-1.3% -0.8% 0.1% -0.5%
Female (56%) Asian (6%) Black (13%) Hispanic (18%) White (55%) Disabled- % ofschools with>3% disabled
undergraduates(27%)
% at Schools where 90%+ of Undergradautes are Online
% at Schools where <5% of Undergradautes are Online
Baseline- % of All Undergraduates
Source: Eduventures analysis of U.S. federal IPEDS data.
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Access by Geography: online wins the bronze?
277,000
442,000
903,000
102,000
283,000
23,500
117,000
43,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Australia UK USA
International Students- by Delivery Mode (2016)
Cross-Border- Student Cross-Border- "Campus" Cross-Border- Distance
Growth since 2009
+19%
+9%
+45%
+10%
+65%
FLAT
+2%
+23%
7% of
international
students
15%
3%
Source: OBHE “Whatever happened to the promise of online learning?” report (2018). Analysis of data from DET, HESA, IIE, IPEDS.
COST
The Impact of Online Higher Education
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Undergraduate Cost: does online mean lower cost and lower prices?
13,65412,928
14,433 15,421
11,983
13,92114,161
16,08917,287
20,222
24,013
26,552
18,201
20,293
2009/10 2010.11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Very High (>50%) High (25-49%) Medium (10-24%) Low (5-9%)
Very Low (<5%) Zero AVERAGE
Average (Mean) Tuition and Fees for Full-Time, In-State U.S. Undergraduates by Intensity of Online Enrollment (Fall 2016)
Source: Eduventures analysis of U.S. federal IPEDS data. 2 and 4Y schools. List price- constant 2017 $.
Up 7%
since
2009/10
Up 11%
Up 17%
Up 14%
Up 7%
Up 16%
Down 5%Up 3% since 2014/15
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Postgraduate Cost: online institutions are cheapest but no downward trend
10,849
11,86411,499
13,019
13,635
15,44115,861
18,556
16,503
18,128
18,758
19,384
14,679
16,081
2009/10 2010.11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Very High (>50%) High (25-49%) Medium (10-24%) Low (5-9%)
Very Low (<5%) Zero AVERAGE
Average (mean) Tuition and Fees for Full-Time, In-State U.S. Postgraduate
Study by Intensity of Online Enrollment (Fall 2016)
Source: Eduventures analysis of U.S. federal IPEDS data. List price- constant 2017 $.
Up 3%
since
2009/10
Up 10%
Up 17%Up 17%
Up 13%
Up 13%
Up 9%
OUTCOMES
The Impact of Online Higher Education
Outcomes: fully online lowers odds of completion. Blended is less practical, likely more expensive but correlated with stronger outcomes. Traditional benchmark not great.
57%
20%
60%
38%
63%
22%
68%
46%
33%
13%
48%
30%
45%
19%
65%
44%
First Time, Full-Time First Time, Part-Time Not First Time, Full-time Not First Time, Part-Time
8 Year Outcomes- % of 2008 cohort receiving award from same school
Total Very Low Fully Online (<5%) Very High Fully Online (50%+) Very High Some Online (50%+)
Source: Eduventures analysis of IPEDS data. 2 and 4-year schools.
1.76m
182k
736k 307k
792k
38k
262k69k
37k
47k 62k
98k
15k 2k 10k5k
THE BOTTOM LINE & THE FUTURE
The Impact of Online Higher Education
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Online Higher Education 2018- The Bottom Line
- Access: improved access to resources for most; enhanced higher education
access for some groups, barriers for others.
- Cost: consensus that “good online” costs as much if not more than traditional
programming. Counter examples of learning redesign that can lower cost and
raise quality. If technology cannot achieve cost breakthroughs in higher
education, what can?
- Outcomes: worse, on average, for online students. Impact of demographics,
circumstances and delivery mode. A problem if the fastest growing sector of
higher education leads to weaker outcomes.
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The Future of Higher Education- where to focusExplicit, Institutional
Pedagogies
Implicit, Local
Pedagogies
Co
ho
rt L
ock
-Ste
pS
elf-P
ac
ed
Conventional
Online Programs
New
Generation
CBE
Pioneer CBE/CPL
Schools
Correspondence
Education
MOOC
CoursesConventional
Programs
Bigger circle= higher price
Real opportunity?
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Right Direction- less focus on online enrollment, latest tech; more on learning design and new credentials
Advantages
- Learning design
- Low cost
- Experiential, blended
- Cohort
- Education-Work
- General and specific
Skills
- Quality at scale
Risks
- Boutique
- Too “vocational”
- Too flexible, self-paced
- Mostly degree-holders enroll
- Adds cost and time
- Just a pathway to “real”
higher education
Thank you
Richard GarrettChief Research Officer, Eduventures & NRCCUA
Director- The Observatory on Borderless Higher Education
