Modeling Domestic Transitions, Climatic Change, and Livelihoods: A Case Study of Mossi Households,...
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Modeling Domestic Transitions, Climatic Change, and Livelihoods: A Case Study of Mossi Households, Burkina Faso
Colin Thor WestResearch Assistant Professor of AnthropologyInstitute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA)
Pugkêenga (A) and Independent (B) Mossi residence patterns
Have Mossi extended households disappeared?
If not, why?
How do Mossi domestic transitions articulate with larger processes of climatic and social change?
Desiccation, livelihood diversification, and agricultural intensification have promoted household extension
Rissiam, 2002 – G. Tappan
Pugkêenga and Independent Households
Independent
Pugkêenga
45 30
50 89
Pugkêenga and independent fields
Pugkêenga
Independent
Household – Unit of production, consumption, and reproduction
Operationalized – A group that farms together in the same field, pools resources, eats from a common granary and recognizes the authority of single head
Pugkêenga and independent granaries:
Africa and Burkina Faso
G H A N AG H A N AI V O R Y C O A S TI V O R Y C O A S T
B E N I NB E N I N
B U R K I N A F A S OB U R K I N A F A S O
M A L IM A L I
G U I N E AG U I N E A
TO
GO
TO
GO
M A U R I T A N I AM A U R I T A N I A
N I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E R
N I G E R I AN I G E R I A
L I B E R I AL I B E R I A
°0 2,600 5,200 7,800 10,4001,300
Kilometers
Area of Detail
5
5
5
5
5
T I K A R ET I K A R E S A B C ES A B C E
K O N G O U S S IK O N G O U S S I
Z I M T E N G AZ I M T E N G A
Sakou
Kouka
Rissiam
Loulouka
KONGOUSSI
!OUAGADOUGOU
°0 3 6 9 121.5
Kilometers
Central Plateau Area of Detail
Legend
5 Localities
Department Boundaries
National Road
Contour Lines
Lake/water
Inundation Zone
97 household surveys covering:- demographics- grain production- assets such as animals, cattle, ploughs, etc.
Fieldwork conducted in 2004
Climatic change: Sahelian desiccation
From Bell and Lamb 2006: 5344
Annual precipitation index for the Sahel (from 11o to 18o N, west of 10o E)
Climatic change: regional desiccation
Data provided by the Direction de la Méteorologie du Burkina Faso
famine exodus
WET
DESICCATION
Social change: agricultural intensification, livelihood diversification, SWC, cattle-raising
Comparison of predicted v. observed NDVI for 13.3oN , -1.5oW
- Analysis prepared by S. Herrmann, PhD
SWC and “greening of the Sahel”
Sustainable livelihoods framework
DFID
Sustainability – Davies, 1996
Mossi mixed subsistence livelihood system
Are pugkêenga households disappearing?
Comparison of Pugkêenga Frequencies with Other Case Studies
Author Kohler Imbs West
Village(s)Province
Year fieldwork conducted
DakolaYatenga
1965-1968
KumtaaboYatenga
1969-1972, 1973
Loulouka, Sakou, KoukaBam2004
N 63 162 97
Independent Count 43 145 42
% of Sample 68.3 89.5 43.3
Pugkêenga Count 20 17 55
% of Sample 31.7 10.5 56.7
Pugkêenga households and population density
Pugkêenga v. Independent Household Frequencies by Village
Household Type
Population Density (persons/km2)
High (135) Medium (42) Low (11)
Loulouka Sakou Kouka
N 32 35 31
Independent Count 10 18 14
% within village 31.3% 51.4% 43.3%
Pugkêenga Count 22 17 16
% within village 68.8% 48.6% 53.3%
Pugkêenga households and social capital
Mann-Whitney Z = -4.425, one-tailed p = 0.000
Chayanov consumer/producer ratios
Based on Toulmin, 1992:260
TABLE 2 Chayanov Consumer-Producer Weights
Member CategoryWeight
Consumer Index Producer Index
Males 71 + 0.6 0.0
51-70 0.8 0.5
15-50 1.0 1.0
Females 71 + 0.6 0.0
51-70 0.7 0.5
15-50 0.9 0.6
Males/Females < 15 0.6 0.3
Pugkêenga households and Chayanov consumer/producer ratios
Pugkêenga
Pugkêenga households and grain production
* one-tail p < 0.05 using Mann-Whitney U test
* * * ** * * *
Pugkêenga households and animal assets
Mann-Whitney Z = -1.16, one-tailed p = 0.041
mean = 2.95 mean = 6.57
Pugkêenga households and animal assets
Total Monetized Value of Animal Assets by Household Adult Equivalents (AE)
Household Type N Mean (CFA/AE)
Sum of Ranks
Mean RankValue
Independent 42 43183 1816.5 43.3
Pugkêenga 53 54405 2743.5 51.8
Mann-Whitney Z = -1.495, one-tailed p = 0.0675
Pugkêenga and independent households
Mossi Livelihood Model Agent Variables Summary Based on Survey Means
Variable name DescriptionValues
Pugkêenga Independent
grain Amount of grain (kg) 2156 1490
assets Amount of animal assets (CFA) 653148 218333
consum Household consumption value 12.15 6.82
prod Household production value 8.24 4.60
chayanov Household Chayanov ratio (C/P) 1.47 1.50
pugkeenga? Household is a pugkêenga ? True False
Pukeenga_model
Initial scenario – 30 runs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 51 101 151 201 251 301 351
tick
Co
un
t
mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_05% independent_95%
Climate: observedProd-mm: low (0.125 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: low (1.5%)
Terroir scenario – 30 runs
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10
20
30
40
50
60
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101 1201 1301 1401 1501 1601 1701 1801
tick
Co
un
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mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_95% independent_05%
Climate: wetProd-mm: low (0.125 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: medium (8.5%)
Contemporary scenario – 30 runs
0
10
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30
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50
60
1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101 1201 1301 1401 1501 1601 1701 1801
Tick
Co
un
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mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_95% independent_05%
Climate: dryProd-mm: high (0.175 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: high (10%)
Conclusions:
- Pugkêenga households persist
- Pugkêenga households and their livelihood assets enhance their sustainability under conditions of desiccation, agricultural intensification, and livelihood diversification
- Agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for exploring the contingent nature of domestic processes in terms of climatic and social change
Acknowledgements:
UofA Marshall Foundation Dissertation Fellowship
UofA Global Change IDP Dissertation Improvement Grant
Arizona State Museum Raymond Thompson Dissertation Grant
UofA Social and Behavioral Sciences Research Institute Graduate Research Grant
Institut de la Démographique et de la Statistique -BF
PATECORE - BF Institut de la Géographie du BurkinaMETEO - BF
NOAA Global and Climate Change Post-doc Fellowship Program
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5
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Loa
Sam
Kora
Zano
KilouLoaga
Gouse
Sakou
Bargo
Doure
Kouka
Dougre
Tamiga
Imiere
Nienega
Sakoure
Nongsom
Lourgou
Loulouka
Tampouga
Ouampega
Komsilga
Badinogo
Badinogo
Dinguila
KONGOUSSI
Dariguima
Koumbango
Kouppelle
Kondibito
Bayen-Foulgo
°0 2.51.25
Kilometers
Lake
5 Villages
$ Surveyed hhs contour line
Approximate village terroir boundaries
Flood zoneMinor roadNational road
Departmental road