Model used by IMD for Genesis Prediction · Model used by IMD for Genesis Prediction [International...
Transcript of Model used by IMD for Genesis Prediction · Model used by IMD for Genesis Prediction [International...
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Model used by IMD for Genesis Prediction
[International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclones Forecasting]
(ITWTCF)
S. D. Kotal
NWP Division, New Delhi
(03-14 August 2015)
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Operational NWP Models at IMD
• GFS T574L64 (23 km)
• WRF (3DVAR - 27 km, 9km, 3 km)
• EPS (Ensemble track, strike probability)
• HWRF (27 KM, 9 KM)(Track, Intensity, Rainfall)
• GPP (Genesis Potential Parameter)
• SCIP (for cyclone intensity prediction)
• MME (for cyclone track)
• RI-Index (Rapid Intensification)
• Decay after landfall (Decay model)
NWP Model product from Other Centres
• NCMRWF
• ECMWF
• JMA
• NCEP GFS
• UKMO
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Extended Range
• ECMWF (CFAN)
• IITM (CFS)
Genesis Probability
• NCEP Genesis probability (24h, 48h)
• CIRA Genesis probability (24h, 48h)
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CYCLOGENESIS
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CYCLONE ‘GIRI’
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Limitation of models.
Variation of forecasts among NWP models.
Requirements are also different for different
forecast services.
Forecasters need more skillful, consensus, and
requirement based products.
Statistical post processing can add skill to
dynamical forecast.
Dynamical models provide very useful
guidance to operational forecasters:
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NWP Model based Objective Cyclone Prediction System
(Dynamical-Statistical)
STEP-IV
Cyclogenesis
Prediction
Track
Prediction
Intensity
Prediction
Rapid Intensification
Decay after
Landfall
Decay Model
RI-Index
SCIP Model
Multimodel
Ensemble(MME)
Genesis Potential
Parameter(GPP)
STEP-I
STEP-II
STEP-III
STEP-V
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GENESIS POTENTIAL
PARAMETER (GPP)
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The GPP is defined as: (Natural Hazards, 2009, 50,389-402)
if ζ850 > 0, M > 0 and I > 0
= 0 if ζ850 ≤ 0, M ≤ 0 and I ≤ 0
Where , ζ850 = Low level relative vorticity (at 850 hPa) in 10-5 s-1
S = Vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa (ms-1)
= Middle troposphere relative humidity
Where RH is the mean relative humidity between 700 and 500 hPa
I = (T850 – T500) °C = Middle-trpospheric instability (Temperature
difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa)
30
]40[
RHM
S
xMxIGPP
850
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Genesis potential parameter for developing versus non- developing systems:
GPP(x10-5)
T.No. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Developing 11.1 12.3 13.3 13.5 13.6
Non-Developing 3.4 4.2 4.6 2.7 -
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 1.5 2 2.5 3
T.No.
GPP
DevelopingNon-Developing
Threshold value
of GPP = 8.0
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Applications of GPP
Area average GPP to identify the
potential of a system to intensify into a
Cyclonic Storm at the early stage of
development.
Grid point analysis of GPP to identify the
potential cyclogenesis zone over the North
Indian Sea.
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THANE
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Depression at 1200 UTC of 25 December 2011 (THANE)
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Genesis Potential Parameter (THANE in 2011)
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VIYARU
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Grid point Analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter
(GPP) for cyclone VIYARU
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Area average Genesis potential parameter (GPP)
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PHAILIN
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 1 Oct. 2013: 168 hour forecast (7 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 00 UTC 08 October 2013 correctly indicated the location of
potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 3 Oct. 2013: 120 hour forecast (5 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 00 UTC 08 October 2013 correctly indicated the location of
potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 6 Oct. 2013: 48 hour forecast (2 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 00 UTC 08 October 2013 correctly indicated the location of
potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed on that day.
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Area average Genesis potential parameter (GPP) GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No.-1.0; based on 00UTC of 7.10.2013)
17.6
15.6
14
22.2
21.2
21.8
18
25.1
19.8 2
2.8
20.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time (h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No-1.5; based on 00UTC of 8.10.2013)
18.6
18.6
18.5 19
19
20.9
20.7
20.9
17
24.7 2
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time(h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No-2.0; based on 00UTC of 9.10.2013)
21.9
23.1
24.2 2
8.4
27.9
28.5
25.2
26.2
30.9
31.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108
Lead Time(h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0 Inference: Analysis and forecasts of
GPP show that GPP ≥ 8.0 (threshold
value for intensification into cyclone)
indicated its potentential to intensify
into a cyclone at early stages of
development (T.No. 1.0, 1.5, 2.0).
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LEHAR
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MADI
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GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T. No. 1.0; based on 00UTC of 2.12.2013)
23.6
16.0 18
.8
26.3
20.7 24
.3 25.4
22.5 23.8
27.5
20.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time(h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No 1.0; based on 00UTC of 3.12.2013)
17.2
12.0
17.6
18.2 19.2
16.6
20.6
17.3 18
.4
17.2 18
.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time(h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
Area average Genesis potential parameter (GPP)
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GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No 1.0; based on 00UTC of 4.12.2013)
17.6 19
.5 21.3
22.0
18.7
18.8 20
.2
18.9
18.4
15.6
18.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time(h)
GP
P
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
GPP Analysis and Forecast
(Initial stage=T.No 1.0; based on 00UTC of 5.12.2013)
18.0 20
.3 21.1 22
.8
27.3
24.8
19.4
19.1
15.0
14.9 18
.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Lead Time(h)
GPP
GPP Threshold GPP=8.0
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HUDHUD
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Grid point Analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter
(GPP) for cyclone HUDHUD
On 3 Oct. 2014: 96 hour forecast (4 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 12 UTC 07 October 2014 correctly indicated the
location of potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed
on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 4 Oct. 2013: 72 hour forecast (3 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 12 UTC 07 October 2014 correctly indicated the
location of potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed
on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 5 Oct. 2014: 48 hour forecast (2 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 12 UTC 07 October 2014 correctly indicated the
location of potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed
on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis of Genesis Potential
Parameter (GPP)
On 6 Oct. 2014: 24 hour forecast (1 days in advance) of GPP
valid for 12 UTC 07 October 2014 correctly indicated the
location of potential cyclogenesis zone, where Depression formed
on that day.
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Grid Point Analysis and Forecasts of
Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP)
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Grid Point Analysis and Forecasts of
Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP)
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Area average Genesis potential parameter (GPP)
Inference: Analysis and forecasts of
GPP show that GPP ≥ 8.0 (threshold
value for intensification into cyclone)
indicated its potentential to intensify
into a cyclone at early stages of
development (T.No. 1.0, 1.5, 2.0).
GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER
Based on 1200 UTC of 7 Oct 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 24 48 72 96
Lead Time (h)
GP
P GPP
THRESHOLD
GPP based on 0000 UTC of
7 October 2014
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Deep Depression over Bay of Bengal during
(5-8) November 2014
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SUMMARY
Area average of GPP could predict the potential of the systems to
intensify into cyclonic storms at their early stages of development.
Grid point analysis shows that higher value of the GPP over a
region indicates higher potential zone of genesis.
The region with GPP value equal or greater than 30 is found to be
high potential zone for cyclogenesis.
The analysis and forecasts of the parameter affirm its usefulness as
a predictive signal (4-5 days in advance) for day to day monitoring of
cyclogenesis over the north Indian Sea.
Final official forecast is issued using all available inputs.
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