Model Thinking
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Model Thinking Scott E Page
description
Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Two “Proofs”. Polya. U = {1 Blue, 1 Red} Select and return Add a new ball that is the same color as the ball selected. Polya in Action. Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely. P(RBBB) = P(BBBR) = . P(RBRB ) = - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Model Thinking
![Page 1: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Model ThinkingScott E Page
![Page 2: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Two “Proofs”
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Polya
U = {1 Blue, 1 Red}Select and return
Add a new ball that is thesame color as the ball selected
![Page 4: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Polya in Action
![Page 5: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely
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P(RBBB) =
P(BBBR) =
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P(RBRB) =
P(BBRR) =
![Page 8: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.
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P(BBBB) =
P(BBBR) =
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P(50B) =
P(49B 1R) =
P(47B 3R) =
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Result 1: Any probability of red balls is an equilibrium and equally likely.
![Page 12: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Result 2: Any history of B blue and R red balls is equally likely
![Page 13: Model Thinking](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062520/56816269550346895dd2d847/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Model ThinkingScott E Page