Mobility Management: Value for money Contributions by Walter Bien, Jan Christiaens Moderated by...
-
Upload
rachel-simmons -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of Mobility Management: Value for money Contributions by Walter Bien, Jan Christiaens Moderated by...
Mobility Management: Value for money
Contributions by Walter Bien, Jan Christiaens
Moderated by Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2009May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián
Introduction
Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2009May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián
3
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Today’s interactive session
welcome to ELTIS Café and introduction to ELTIS (5’)
value for money: cost benefits (30’)
discussion round 1 (20’)
changeover (5’)
discussion round 2 (20’)
wrap up and general conclusions (10’)Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
4
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
- The ELTIS Café wants to boost dialogue and exchange experience and ideas in small but inspiring groups.
- The ELTIS Café aims to further encourage the exchange of ideas and experiences in a less formal but still unconventional way.
- To do this, ELTIS organises several sessions at various events where participants sit together at small tables as in a café.
- Brief presentations by proponents of different viewpoints on the same topic are made and then two rounds of discussion are held.
Introduction and goal
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
5
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
What is ELTIS?
The European Local Transport Information Service (ELTIS) is Europe‘s number one web portal on urban transport and mobility
It is an initiative of the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy and Transport
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
6
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - LondonEltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org www.eltis.org
ELTIS aims to:
Provide information and support the exchange of experience in the field of urban and regional transport in Europe.
7
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
On-line contents
News
Events
Calls and tenders
Tools for practitioners
EU initiatives and policies
Case studies
Links
User association
Vote & win
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
Mobility Management: Value for money?
Jan Christiaens/ Lies Lambert
(Mobiel 21)
ECOMM 2009May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián
9
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
• a concept to promote sustainable transport and manage the demand for car use by changing travellers’ attitudes and behaviour
• at the core of Mobility Management are "soft" measures
• does it work?• at all?• effective?• efficient?• cost-benefit?
Mobility Management…
…is it any good?
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
10
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
The ECOMM and EPOMM community is a clear believer.
“Obviously, because Mobility Management pays your bills .“
Like the baker statingthat fresh bread from the bakery is a healthy and delicious way to start the
day…
Where is the real proof?
Does it work? At all?
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
11
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Proof is in eating the pudding: hundreds of cases
Does it work? At all? (2)
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
12
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Tons of cases
Years of good and best practice
Us knows us
But what does average Joe know about MobilityManagement and does he notices anything whilst travelling?
Does it work? Efficient/effective?
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
13
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Key note opened stating (once more) that Mobility Management is part of an integrated approach: only a combination of elements works (in that case it was in dealing with climate change).
Like we all knowbut sometimes seem to forget.
Problem: the otherparts are often
easy to measure.
ECOMM 2008 London
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
14
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Published February 2009A case/role for Mobility
Management?
Rather a clear lack of it:• Mobility Management is not a theme
nor subtheme - Transport Demand Management is a subtheme, mainly looking at pricing issues
• Referral to MAX (Successful Travel Awareness Campaigns and Mobility Management Strategies) and MOVE (International cluster for mobility management development and research dissemination) as projects with results not yet available.
Efficiency in Sustainable Mobility
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
15
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Enormous Mobility Management efforts
•A huge majority wanted the Olympic games to be a success story at all levels.•Governmental appeal/pressure with the result that all shared a common goal.•That included taking unpopular MM measures (mainly aimed at air quality).
•Social ! Psychology !•Alas, we are mostly not working on such big projects
Efficiency? Olympics Bejing
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
16
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Selling MM = project appraisal
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
17
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Selling MM = showing cost-benefits
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
A new approach for MM benefit-estimation
Walter Bien
ECOMM 2009May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián
19
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Effect Estimation within changing framework/conditions
The classical (best) approach:Evaluation of treatment groups and “placebo”-groups
Estimation of change in the mobility/traffic area (modal split, PT passenger numbers, …) using statistical data (inhabitants, number of cars, commuters, PT offer, …)
Comparison of estimated and measured values
Example: Development of the number of PT passengers in Frankfurt from 1995 to 2010
Overview
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
20
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
1. Effect Estimation within changing framework/conditions
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
Compare: The “fat car driver”
vs. the “slim biker”
21
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
year
Public Transport
passengerschange-
rate
(values in millions)
1995 170,0
2001 183,4 7,9%
2007* 183,8 0,2%
„success“
of mobility management ???
* means: preliminary
… starting with mobility management measures in the year 2000
… establish mobility management in the following years
22
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
„success“of mobility management
… could be ?
yearPT-
passengers
income by
ticket-sales
change-rate
(values in millions)
1995 170,0 117,0
2001 183,4 137,3 17,3%
2007* 183,8 167,0 21,6%
… but in the same two periods we have a strong increase of income by ticket sales (based on a higher price level)
23
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
„success“
of mobility management
… yes !
yearinhabi-tants
emplo-yees
inhab.+employ.
change-rate
(all values in thousands)
1995 653 548 1.201
2001 646 603 1.249 4,0%
2007* 668 610 1.278 2,3%
… the increase of customer potential (inhabitants and employees) is less in the second period
24
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
„success“ of mobility management:
… Yes (in a special manner) if we assume that there would be a decrease of the number of PT passengers and a less increase of income without mobility management …
period
Public Transport passen-
gers
Income by
ticket sales
Inhabitants &
employees
Compare of the change rates
1995-2001 7,9% 17,3% 4,0%
2001-2007 0,2% 21,6% 2,3%
25
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
PT-passengers and PT-income (1995 - 2008) compared to fuel-price (index numbers: base 1995 = 100)
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Index
PT - income (local)
fuel price
Public Transport passengers
The problem: effect estimation of measures
… we can see non effect of fuel prices on the developement of PT passengers
26
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Public Transport: offer and usage (1995 - 2008) (index numbers: base 1995 = 100)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
level of capacity
PT - offer
PT - usage
The PT offer is stable in the first period while the usage icreases for 15%.
In the second period PT offer and also the usage is grown up for 6-7%-points.
27
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
2. The classical (best) approach: Evaluation of treatment groups and “placebo”-groups
Remember – (Eric Schreffler; S. Diego):
The data never lie
– but do we so ?
28
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
2. The classical (best) approach: Evaluation of treatment groups and “placebo”-groups
But also (Herbert Kemming, germany):
… The control group method… and its problems
29
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
30
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
3. Estimation of change in the mobility/traffic area (modal split, PT passenger numbers, …) using statistical data (inhabitants, number of cars, commuters, PT offer, …)
31
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
In the slides before we have to deal with this kind of data:
Number of Public Transport Passengers
PT income by ticket sales
Inhabitants (in city/region)
Employees (in city/region)
Fuel price
PT offer (in km*places - offered)
PT usage (in km*places - used)
… and all this data are almost available – and can be used (in combination with some others) to estimate effects of measures.
Structural data: important for modal-choice / „available“
32
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
95
100
105
110
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
95
100
105
110Index
households in Frankfurt
number of household members
inhabitants younger than 18
inhabitants of Frankfurt
33
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
95
100
105
110
115
120
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
95
100
105
110
115
120Index
employees - working in Frankfurt
employees - living in Frankfurt
number of cars in Frankfurt
34
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
… on the next slide
– see the combination
35
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
95
100
105
110
115
120
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
95
100
105
110
115
120Index
households in Frankfurt
number of household members
inhabitants younger than 18
employees - working in Frankfurt
number of cars in Frankfurt
employees - living in Frankfurt
inhabitants of Frankfurt
36
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
The weighted combination of 4 single-indicator values is a good fitting indicator for the developement of PT-passenger-numbers:
Inhabitants of frankfurt (weight: 1)+ (reciprocal) number of cars (weight: 2)+ employees (working) in frankfurt (weight: 3)+ number of commuters to frankfurt (weight: 4)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------average of the indicators above = indicator for pt-passengers
Combining structural data with passenger-numbers in public-transport
37
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public-transport
from structural data to an indicator-value (index numbers: base 1995 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
130
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
inhabitants of frankfurt
employees (working) infrankfurt
number of cars (in reciprocalmanner)
number of commuters tofrankfurt
(weighted) average of theindicators above
38
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
PT-passengers and indicator-value (index numbers: base 1995 = 100)
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Index
indicator-value (combining structural data)
PT - income (local)
PT passengers in frankfurt
Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public-transport
39
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Now we can construct a so called „Target Value“ for the number of PT passengers.
This is a weighted combination of the indicator-value before (combined by the 4 structural data) and the PT-offer (see slide no.8):
Indicator Value (weight: 2) + PT offer (weight: 1) -------------------------------------------------------------
average of the indicators above = Target Value for PT-passengers
Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public-transport
40
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
4. Comparison of estimated and measured values
The convincing argument:
Decisive – is the final result !
In german: “… was hinten rauskommt.”
41
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public-transport
PT-passengers, indicator-value and a target value for passenger-number (index numbers: base 1995 = 100)
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Index
indicator-value (combining structural data)
PT - income (local)
target für PT-passengers
PT passengers in frankfurt… now we can see the difference between the (realized) number of PT passengers and the expected number (target value) of PT passengers …
42
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
1. It becomes possible to determine the effects of other measures
- such as mobility management or further soft-policies in PT
(advertisement, special efforts of information...) - separately
and also prove their economic efficiency.
2. Regarding the Frankfurt-area this approach shows that since
the year 2000 with rising tendency, the applied measures have
generated additional fare income within a two-digit million range
(of EUROs).
3. The lower costs (for mobility management) must lead to a
continuation and legitimate the spending of money not only
from an organisational/company-internal but also from a
political and public point of view.
Conclusion
43
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
5. Example:
Development of the number of PT passengers in Frankfurt from 1995 to 2010
44
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
the "result" of mobility-management in Frankfurt (2001 to 2007)
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
90
100
110
120
130
140
Index
PT - income (local)
target-value for PT passengers
PT passengers in Frankfurt
45
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
the "result" of mobility-management in Frankfurt (2001 to 2007)
20082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
95
100
105
110
115
120
Index
target-value for PT passengers
PT passengers in Frankfurt
~ 20 Mio. EURO
46
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Next steps and chances
If the economic effects of mobility management and other soft
traffic policies can be estimated quantitatively in an easy way with
only few available indicators, low priced basic conditions for these
measures can be achieved.
The broad application and testing of this methodology would
induce an equal treatment of soft policies and mobility
management with rather "hardware-oriented" measures as for
example new travel offers (temporal/spatial), new vehicles or
price-arrangements in the PT-sector.
47
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
In a further step a methodology can be developed, which
permits effect estimations for mobility management in
advance, like it has already been implemented in the
German-speaking-area by the so-called "standardized
evaluation" for all kind of infrastructure measures.
And that means:
New and equal opportunities for mobility management!
Next steps and chances
48
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
… and so – we reach her/him:
the “multi-modal” mobility-user
49
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
car(at all)
82%
bike(at all)
40%
Modal-choice of the inhabitants of Frankfurt (~ 670.000 p.)
PT (at all)
43%
car (only)
37%
bike (only)
6%
PT (only)
7%
car & PT16%
car& bike14%
PT & bike 5%
PT & car & bike 15%
50
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
car(at all)
58%
bike(at all)
57%
Sustainable developement in modal-choice
PT (at all)
59%
car (only)
24%
bike (only)
13%
PT (only)
14%
car & PT5%
car& bike
4%
PT & bike 15%
PT & car
& bike
25%
51
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London
Questions - Discussion
Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited)
ECOMM 2009May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián
53
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Question round 1 (+/-20 minutes)
1. Can we prove the value for money of MM measures?
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
54
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Question round 2 (+/-20 minutes)
1. Will approaches such as cost/benefit analysis help us to prove value for money of MM measures?
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
55
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Conclusions and wrap up (+/-10 minutes)
- collection of notes from the different hosts
- the different ideas and solutions are compiled
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org
56
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2008June 5th - London www.eltis.org
Thank you for your contribution!
We’ll meet again @ www.eltis.org
Eltis Café @ ECOMM 2009 www.eltis.org