Mobile Data is Growing Fast; How to Address the Growing Pains Karter.pdf · Mobile Convergence User...
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1 QUALCOMM CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY qctconnect.com Mobile Data is Growing Fast; How to Address the Growing Pains Nick Karter Senior Director Business Development Wireline is Becoming Wireless: This Means More Data Seamless Connectivity • IPTV • Home Network • Rich Communication • VoIP • PTT/PTM • User Generated Content • Mobile 2.0 • Social Networking • Streaming • Music/Ringtones • Video • • Voice • SMS/Email Voice & Text Simple Communication Simple Communication Download Download Download & Upload Download & Upload Real-Time Delay Sensitivity Real-Time Delay Sensitivity Seamless Fixed Mobile Convergence Seamless Fixed Mobile Convergence User trends shift from wired to wireless Wireless Data Growth PAGE 2 Set Top Box • Ubiquitous Broadband • Consumer Electronics • Video Surveillance Video Communication • Multiplayer Gaming Media Sharing • Collaboration • Mobile Advertising WebBrowsing Mobile Services becoming center of life Global Mobile IP Traffic Likely to Grow 66x by 2013E (130% CAGR) 1 Mobile data traffic will grow from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyte per month in half the time it took fixed data to do so Network Loading - 50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years 2 O t ’ Dil M i lR M i lC t GB Substantial Increases Are Forecast for Wireless Demand: Wireless Data Growth Data is Changing Network Economics and Revenue PAGE 3 Operator’s Dilemma - Marginal Revenue vs. Marginal Cost per GB Video will drive the most exabytes of data with almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic by 2013 3 Sources: 1: Cisco/Morgan Stanley Oct 2009 2: AT&T, Various Operators 3: Neilson 4: Qualcomm Economic Modeling on offloading 100% of Heavy Data users Dramatic Increase in Data Traffic Challenges Macro Network Economics Video Devices Become More Prevalent 350 400 450 500 Mobile-Video Enabled Handset Shipments (m) Wireless Data Growth PAGE 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Devices (m) 38.4% CAGR Source: IMS Research 2009 Example of Improvements for WCDMA/CDMA and OFDMA Capacity gain Leverage Wider Spectrum + Network Performance Growth in Data Requires More Capacity at Lower Cost Approaches to providing more capacity PAGE 5 Leverage Multiple Antennas (beyond 2x2) ++ Leverage Topology – “Het Nets” (add picocells and femtocells and optimize) +++ Topology brings capacity gain beyond technology Radio Link Improvement is Slowing, What Is Next? Evolved 3G with Advanced Receivers (EV-DO Rev. B & HSPA+) Data optimized 3G LTE (OFDMA) Next Gen. Leap Evolved 3G Radio Link approaching the theoretical limit Leveraging topology and mitigating interference will provide next performance leap Network Performance PAGE 6 (EV-DO & HSPA) 3G (IMT-2000): Voice & Data (e.g. CDMA2000 1X & WCDMA) 2G: Voice Capacity (Digital e.g. GSM & IS-95) 1G: Voice (Analog e.g. AMPS) Next Gen. Leap Next Generation Leap 2G 3G 1G Relative Capacity Multiples
Transcript of Mobile Data is Growing Fast; How to Address the Growing Pains Karter.pdf · Mobile Convergence User...
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QUALCOMM CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYqctconnect.com
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Mobile Data is Growing Fast; How to Address the Growing Pains
Nick KarterSenior Director Business Development
Wireline is Becoming Wireless: This Means More Data
Seamless Connectivity
• IPTV• Home Network • Set Top Box
Rich Communication
• VoIP• PTT/PTM• Video
User GeneratedContent
• Mobile 2.0 • Social Networking• Media Sharing
Streaming
• Music/Ringtones• Video • Web Browsing
• Voice• SMS/Email
Voice & Text
SimpleCommunicationSimpleCommunication DownloadDownload Download
& UploadDownload& Upload
Real-TimeDelay SensitivityReal-TimeDelay Sensitivity
Seamless FixedMobile ConvergenceSeamless FixedMobile Convergence
User trends shift from wired to wireless
Wireless Data Growth
PAGE 2
Set Top Box• Ubiquitous Broadband• Consumer Electronics• Video Surveillance
Video Communication
• Multiplayer Gaming
Media Sharing • Collaboration• Mobile Advertising
Web Browsing
Mobile Services becoming center of life
Global Mobile IP Traffic Likely to Grow 66x by 2013E (130% CAGR)1
Mobile data traffic will grow from 1 petabyte per month to 1 exabyteper month in half the time it took fixed data to do so
Network Loading - 50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years2
O t ’ Dil M i l R M i l C t GB
Substantial Increases Are Forecast for Wireless Demand:
Wireless Data Growth
Data is Changing Network Economics and Revenue
PAGE 3
Operator’s Dilemma - Marginal Revenue vs. Marginal Cost per GB
Video will drive the most exabytes of data with almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic by 20133
Sources: 1: Cisco/Morgan Stanley Oct 20092: AT&T, Various Operators3: Neilson4: Qualcomm Economic Modeling on offloading 100% of Heavy Data users
Dramatic Increase in Data Traffic Challenges
Macro Network Economics
Video Devices Become More Prevalent
350
400
450
500
Mobile-Video Enabled Handset Shipments (m)
Wireless Data Growth
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Devices (m)
38.4% CAGR
Source: IMS Research 2009
Example of Improvements for WCDMA/CDMA and OFDMA
Capacitygain
Leverage Wider Spectrum +
Network Performance Growth in Data Requires More Capacity at Lower Cost
Approaches to providing more capacity
PAGE 5
Leverage Multiple Antennas(beyond 2x2) ++
Leverage Topology – “Het Nets”(add picocells and femtocells and optimize) +++
Topology brings capacity gain beyond technology
Radio Link Improvement is Slowing, What Is Next?
Evolved 3G withAdvanced Receivers(EV-DO Rev. B & HSPA+)
Data optimized 3GLTE(OFDMA)
Next Gen.Leap
Evolved 3G
Radio Link approaching
the theoretical limit
Leveraging topology and mitigating interference will provide next
performance leap
Network Performance
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(EV-DO & HSPA)
3G (IMT-2000): Voice & Data(e.g. CDMA2000 1X & WCDMA)
2G: Voice Capacity(Digital e.g. GSM & IS-95)
1G: Voice(Analog e.g. AMPS)
Next Gen.Leap
Next GenerationLeap
2G
3G
1G
Relative C
apacity Multiples
2
Macro Cell Sites are CAPEX and OPEX IntensiveNetwork Performance
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Coverage and Capacity are Required Indoors
American Time Use Survey 2005Inside Buildings In-Vehicle Outside Buildings
83% 4% 13%
24-Hour Day 75% 14% 11%
24-Hour Day
In-Building Data Home < 25K Sq. Ft. Building > 25K Sq. Ft. Building
Network Performance
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(Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics)
24 Hour Day 75% 14% 11%
Awake Hours 61% 22% 17%
Work Hours 8% 45% 47%
Operator DeployedPico cells
Network Performance
“Het Nets” Bring Supply (basestation) and Demand (user) Together to Increase Capacity and Improve Experience
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The Next Significant Performance LeapIncreasing spectral efficiency per coverage area
User& Operator Deployed
Femtocells
80Y
14.5 Mbps
Femtocells and HetNets Can Provide Next Significant Performance LeapAll users improved—home user served by near peak data rates
Example for HSPA+. Similar gain achieved for EV-DO Rev. A/B
Network Performance
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Macro usersserved by macro
Home usersserved by
1) macro 2) femto
Macro Only
180 kbps
Y
250 kbps
X
Macro Only
1.5X390 kbps
FemtosAdded
FemtosAdded
Assumptions: Example for HSPA+. 16 Users per cell for dense urban HSPA+ system: 10 macro users and 6 home users served either by macrocell or added femto cells. Rx diversity and MMSE Equalizer used. The median user data rates are shown. Note: Also, the worst 10% of macro users get ~15% higher throughput with proper interference management techniques.
Macro Network Offloaded—Capacity Gain Can Exceed 10x
SummaryMacro BTS becomes increasingly difficult to meet operator’s demand for capacity and coverage
Zoning regulation, spectrum constraints remain as obstacles Higher installation and operational cost
Small cells (Micro/Pico/Femto/DAS) are expected to be widely used in future network : Lower equipment cost and size, faster installation and flexible backhaul operations
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The trend provides opportunities for further 3G/4G HetNet - Consider schemes to reduce backhaul cost such as wireless mesh backhaul and relay
Improved interference management coordination for metropolitan mesh network of Picos and Femtos
Device schemes to take advantage of different band combinations and technology (3G/4G, Wifi)
