Moberg Pharma - Amazon S3...2019/10/22 · REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019 2...
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Important information: All information regarding limitation of liability and potential conflicts of interest can be found at the end of the report Redeye, Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr, Box 7141, 103 87 Stockholm. Tel. +46 8-545 013 30, E-post: [email protected] Update Equity Research 22 October 2019 KEY STATS Ticker MOB.ST Market Small cap Share Price (SEK) 77.2 Market Cap (MSEK) 1403 Net Debt 19/20E (MSEK) -11 Free Float 63 % Avg. daily volume (‘000) 50 BEAR BASE BULL 56.5 96.5 133.5 KEY FINANCIALS (SEKm) 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E 22/23E Net sales 439 16 49 15 169 314 EBITDA 102 -3 12 -27 114 264 EBIT 65 -4 12 -27 80 230 EPS (adj.) 1.1 -0.2 0.5 -1.4 3.3 9.4 EV/Sales 2.8 19.4 28.4 94.9 8.2 3.8 EV/EBITDA 12.1 -94.0 116.0 -53.7 12.1 4.5 EV/EBIT 19.0 -71.7 116.0 -53.7 17.4 5.2 P/E 37.8 -253.4 140.3 -52.3 22.3 7.7 ANALYSTS Klas Palin [email protected] Anders Hedlund [email protected] Major inflection points approaching The recently announced agreements in Asia brings further external validation of MOB-015 as a promising new topical treatment of onychomycosis, boosting our conviction about the case ahead of the first top-line results expected in December. The share price has performed strongly in 2019 (+78%), but we see further upside for the stock before the top-line results. Considerable opportunity in Japan and in South Korea We believe that MOB-015 has the potential to challenge the leading topical onychomycosis treatments, efinaconazole (brand name Clenafin in Japan and Jublia in South Korea), if the target profile (see table page 4) is reached. Clenafin sales in Japan exceeds USD 200m yearly, while Jublia sales during the last twelve months have risen sharply to USD 13m (+88% y/y) in the Republic of Korea. We forecast that MOB-015, if approved, could reach sales in Japan and South Korea of at least USD 50m and USD 10m, respectively. Top-line data the most powerful catalyst With full focus on MOB-015, the top-line data later this year has the potential to become transformational for Moberg Pharma. We want to emphasize that the risks are high in drug development. But, in our opinion, there are strong arguments on believing in positive out- comes in the ongoing Phase III studies for MOB-015: 1) delivers the well documented and effective anti-fungal substance terbinafine, 2) the local delivery limits risks of systemic side-effects, 3) the carrier has a proven history of penetrating the nail through to the nail bed (Kerasal Nail/Nalox), and 4) encouraging results in the Phase II study. Increasing the valuation in all of our scenarios Following the Asian deals, we raise our base case fair value to SEK 96.5 (87.0). This includes the proposed special payment of SEK 46.5 to the shareholders that will take place in November through an automatic share redemption procedure. We also raise the bear case scenario to SEK 56.5 (45.0) and the bull case to SEK 133.5 (127.0). In the bear case, we have assumed a negative outcome in the Phase III studies for MOB-015, while the bull case is built on positive results. Moberg Pharma Sector: Healthcare REDEYE RATING 4 2 2 MOB.ST VERSUS OMXS30 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 22-okt 20-jan 20-apr 19-jul 17-okt OMXS 30 Moberg Pharma FAIR VALUE RANGE Finance People Business
Transcript of Moberg Pharma - Amazon S3...2019/10/22 · REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019 2...
Important information: All information regarding limitation of liability and potential conflicts of interest can be found at the end of the report Redeye, Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr, Box 7141, 103 87 Stockholm. Tel. +46 8-545 013 30, E-post: [email protected]
Update
Equity Research 22 October 2019
KEY STATS
Ticker MOB.ST Market Small cap
Share Price (SEK) 77.2 Market Cap (MSEK) 1403 Net Debt 19/20E (MSEK) -11 Free Float 63 %
Avg. daily volume (‘000) 50
BEAR BASE BULL 56.5
96.5
133.5
KEY FINANCIALS (SEKm)
2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E 22/23E Net sales 439 16 49 15 169 314 EBITDA 102 -3 12 -27 114 264 EBIT 65 -4 12 -27 80 230
EPS (adj.)
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E EPS (adj.) 1.1 -0.2 0.5 -1.4 3.3 9.4 EV/Sales 2.8 19.4 28.4 94.9 8.2 3.8 EV/EBITDA 12.1 -94.0 116.0 -53.7 12.1 4.5 EV/EBIT 19.0 -71.7 116.0 -53.7 17.4 5.2 P/E 37.8 -253.4 140.3 -52.3 22.3 7.7
ANALYSTS
Klas Palin [email protected] Anders Hedlund [email protected]
Major inflection points approaching The recently announced agreements in Asia brings further external validation of MOB-015 as
a promising new topical treatment of onychomycosis, boosting our conviction about the
case ahead of the first top-line results expected in December. The share price has performed
strongly in 2019 (+78%), but we see further upside for the stock before the top-line results.
Considerable opportunity in Japan and in South Korea
We believe that MOB-015 has the potential to challenge the leading topical onychomycosis
treatments, efinaconazole (brand name Clenafin in Japan and Jublia in South Korea), if the
target profile (see table page 4) is reached.
Clenafin sales in Japan exceeds USD 200m yearly, while Jublia sales during the last twelve
months have risen sharply to USD 13m (+88% y/y) in the Republic of Korea. We forecast that
MOB-015, if approved, could reach sales in Japan and South Korea of at least USD 50m and
USD 10m, respectively.
Top-line data the most powerful catalyst
With full focus on MOB-015, the top-line data later this year has the potential to become
transformational for Moberg Pharma. We want to emphasize that the risks are high in drug
development. But, in our opinion, there are strong arguments on believing in positive out-
comes in the ongoing Phase III studies for MOB-015:
1) delivers the well documented and effective anti-fungal substance terbinafine, 2) the local
delivery limits risks of systemic side-effects, 3) the carrier has a proven history of penetrating
the nail through to the nail bed (Kerasal Nail/Nalox), and 4) encouraging results in the Phase
II study.
Increasing the valuation in all of our scenarios
Following the Asian deals, we raise our base case fair value to SEK 96.5 (87.0). This includes
the proposed special payment of SEK 46.5 to the shareholders that will take place in
November through an automatic share redemption procedure. We also raise the bear case
scenario to SEK 56.5 (45.0) and the bull case to SEK 133.5 (127.0). In the bear case, we have
assumed a negative outcome in the Phase III studies for MOB-015, while the bull case is built
on positive results.
Moberg Pharma Sector: Healthcare
REDEYE RATING
4
2 2
MOB.ST VERSUS OMXS30
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
22-okt 20-jan 20-apr 19-jul 17-okt
OMXS 30
Moberg Pharma
FAIR VALUE RANGE
Finan
ce
Peop
le
Busin
ess
REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019
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Expanding the commercial reach of MOB-015 to Japan… The licensing deal for MOB-015 with Taisho Pharmaceuticals brings a financially strong
partner that will finance and drive the development of MOB-015 towards approval in Japan.
Upon market approval, Taisho has the exclusivity to market and sell MOB-015 in the country.
The deal includes an upfront payment of USD 5m and could bring an additional USD 45m in
milestone payments; however, the majority of the milestones are likely related to sales
achievements. Moberg will also receive a royalty from net sales and supply the product. To
reach market authorization in Japan, we believe a Phase III study with Japanese patients will
be required, why we expect a launch no earlier than in 2024.
As we have mentioned previously, the Japanese prescription (RX) nail fungus market is an
exciting opportunity, we believe, with sales of about USD 300m per year. The leading brand is
Clenafin from Kaken Pharmaceutical (inventor), which is the same molecule as Jublia (efina-
conazole). Clenafin recorded sales in 2018 of JPY 22,900 million (more than USD 200m).
Clenafin sales development, 2014-2019e
Source: Kaken Pharmaceuticals
When we expect a possible launch of MOB-015, Clenafin will have been on the market for ten
years and will, by then, a very established brand. MOB-015 has the potential of displaying a
better product profile than Clenafin/Jublia, but still, we believe it will be tough to challenge the
leading position of Clenafin. That’s why we are taking a somewhat cautious stance of the
selling potential and estimate peak sales of USD 50m.
…and into the Republic of Korea An opportunity in South Korea might be to reach approval of MOB-015 based on documenta-
tion from the two ongoing trials, as regulatory authorities have a history of being somewhat
more flexible than PMDA in Japan to non-Asian trials. This would shorten time to the market,
with a potential launch within three to four years from now.
The South Korean market for topical treatments of onychomycosis is smaller than the
Japanese, and Moberg Pharma estimates the value to about USD 40m. Jublia is the leading
topical brand and is market by Dong-A ST. The product recorded sales during the last twelve
months of USD 13m (+88% y/y) in the Republic of Korea, well ahead of the other topical
treatments available, which are OTC products.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e
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Rolling twelve-month sales of Jublia in South Korea, 2018-2019
Source: Kaken Pharmaceuticals
We have been told that the partner DongKoo Bio & Pharma Co. has a presence at the
dermatology clinics, which will be valuable in the competition against Jublia, and why it
seems like a perfect distribution partner for MOB-015. We forecast peak sales of MOB-015 in
South Korea at about USD 10m.
A reminder of the MOB-015 case MOB-015 is a next-generation topical nail fungus treatment and targets mainly the OTC
segment in the EU, but can become a prescription drug in North America and Asia.
Development is on-going with a Phase III trial in North American Phase III with topline results
expected in December this year. The recruitment pace of the European study has been
somewhat slower, why topline results are expected in Q2 2020.
Current topical treatment options for patients with nail fungus are less effective than oral
counterparts, especially terbinafine. However, terbinafine is associated with side effects. The
strength of the MOB-015 concept is that it is a local formulation of terbinafine with an
accordingly much lower risk of side effects, but still with the benefits of the molecule's strong
anti-fungal effect. It was confirmed in the previous phase II study, which showed that
concentrations of terbinafine increased considerably in the nail bed with limited systemic
exposure.
Another of MOB-015’s strengths is its ability to generate a rapid, visible improvement of the
nail already after four weeks. Potentially even more critical is that it may offer a shorter 6-
month duration of treatment, compared to about 12 months today with existing therapies.
0
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Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19
MOB-015 Phase II Study
Terbinafine (µg/g) In comparision to oral treatment
Nail 1610 1000x higher
Nail bed 45 40x higher
Plasma 0,0015 1000x lower
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Source: Redeye, company data
As shown in the table above, the results in the Phase II study were in-line with today’s leading
topical brand Jublia. However, we want to highlight that in the Phase II study, the patient’s
toenails were more affected by onychomycosis than in the Phase III trial of Jublia. It is relevant,
as a close connection between cure rates and affected toenails has been seen.
Product Affected toenail
MOB-015 (Phase II) 25-75%
MOB-015 (Phase III) 20-60%
Jublia (Phase III) 20-50%
Kerydin (Phase III) 20-60%
Penlac (Phase III) 20-65% Source: Redeye, company data
Another factor, in the Jublia trial, patients from Japan were also included. This is important
as Japanese patients seem to display better outcomes with topical nail fungus treatments
than for example, US patients. When excluding Japanese patients, the complete cure rates
were between 14-15%, unlike what was shown in the Japanese patients with complete cure
rates of 29 %, according to an analysis by the PMDA.
The goal of the ongoing Phase III trials is for recruiting patients with 60% or less affected
toenails. We believe that this will increase the likelihood of positive results and to meet with
the target profile shown in the table above.
Product charateristics
Product Complete Cure
Visible
improvement
24w 52w 52w 4w
Jublia Na 54% 15-18% Na
Kerydin Na 31-36% 7-9% Na
Penlac and generics Na 30% 6-8% Na
MOB-15 (Phase 2) 40% 54% Na >50%
MOB-015 (Phase 3 target) Na 60-70% 20-30% >50%
Terbinafine (12-16w ) 40% 70-76% 38% Na
Mycological Cure
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Valuation When valuing Moberg, we use a sum-of-the-parts approach. Including the proposed
shareholder redemption of SEK 46.5 per share and a valuation of MOB-015 of SEK 50, the
SOTP valuation amounts to SEK 96.5 (87). In our valuation we have excluded Bupi, as we see
no path forward at this point.
Below we present a valuation sensitivity of Moberg Pharma post the share redemption.
MOB-015 (LOA 70%)
WACC
18% 16% 14% 12% 10%
Peak s
ale
s -
US
50 20 24 27 32 37
100 29 34 39 45 51
150 39 44 50 57 66
200 48 54 62 70 80
250 57 65 73 83 95
300 66 75 85 96 109
MOB-015 (LOA 100%)
WACC
18% 16% 14% 12% 10%
Peak s
ale
s -
US
50 34 36 44 51 58
100 47 53 60 69 79
150 60 68 77 87 99
200 73 82 93 106 120
250 86 97 109 124 141
300 99 112 126 142 161
Scenario analysis The scenario analysis is twelve months forward-looking and describes the impact on the
valuation of a positive (bull case) and a negative (bear case) outcome of the Phase III
program.
Our optimistic bull case scenario, which gives a fair value of SEK 133.5, assumes the
following:
The outcomes of the ongoing clinical trials with MOB-015 are positive
MOB-015 is approved in the EU and US
Moberg enters a commercial agreement with a partner for the US market
A Phase III trial in Japan gets started
Share redemption of SEK 46.5
Our bear case scenario, which gives a fair value of SEK 56.5, assumes these negatives:
The results of the Phase III studies are not strong enough to support registration as
a new prescription treatment
Development in Japan is stopped following weak data in the Phase III program
MOB-015 reaches approval in Europe but without strong claims
Share redemption of SEK 46.5
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Investment Case MOB-015 is the lead asset in Phase III development
Top-line results expected in December 2019
Highly likely of a positive outcome in ongoing Phase III trials
We forecast USD 280-330m peak sales
Moberg Pharma is nowadays entirely focused on developing and on commercializing MOB-
015 on all major markets. Partner deals are in place for Europe, Japan, Canada, South Korea.
MOB-015 is a next-generation topical nail fungus treatment and targets the OTC segment in
the EU but will become a prescription drug in North America. Current topical treatment
options for patients with nail fungus are less effective than oral counterparts, especially
terbinafine. However, terbinafine is associated with side-effects. The strength of the MOB-
015 concept is:
1) Delivers the well documented anti-fungal substance terbinafine
2) Local delivery limits the risks of systemic side-effects
3) The carrier has a proven history of penetrating the nail through to the nail bed (Kerasal
Nail/Nalox)
4) Encouraging results in the Phase II study supporting the hypothesis
The points above are the reason why we believe in a lower development risk than for the
average Phase III asset and we risk-adjust or forecasts with an LOA (likelihood of approval) of
70% (the average is about 60%). Nevertheless, based on our estimates, the current share
price reflects an LOA of 50%, 10% below average. We believe this will change after the share
redemption.
Even though the development risk associated with MOB-015 is lower compared to
conventional drugs under development, a negative outcome in Phase III will have a significant
negative impact on the share price, and we expect share prices below SEK 10.
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Catalysts Phase III top-line data- MOB-015
We expect top-line results in December 2019. Given the promising results in Phase IIb, we believe it is highly likely
that MOB-015 will show superiority against the vehicle (comparable to Kerasal Nail). We use an LOA of 70% when
risk-adjusting future cash flows, implying our a Phase III success of 80%.
IMPACT Downside Upside Time Frame
Significance Likelihood Significance Likelihood Major Unlikely Major Highly likely Short
Phase III top-line results - EU
The top-line results of the European Phase III study are expected in Q2 2020. A positive outcome in the US trial will,
of course, provide extra confidence ahead of the data. In a negative scenario where MOB-015 does not show
superiority against Penlac, we still believe the product could reach approval in the EU, but in that case, with low
differentiation.
IMPACT Downside Upside Time Frame
Significance Likelihood Significance Likelihood Major Extremely unlikely Major Highly likely Mid
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Summary Redeye Rating The rating consists of three valuation keys, each constituting an overall assessment of several factors that are rated
on a scale of 0 to 1 points. The maximum score for a valuation key is 5 points.
Rating changes in the report
People: 4
Moberg Pharma management has been slimmed following the divestment of the OTC business in 2019, but the current leadership
has a long history with the company, and the founder Peter Wolpert remains as an executive chairman of the board.
Communication with the stock market has been active and accurate. However, most important, the company has a successful
history of creating value for its shareholders.
Business: 2
The lead asset MOB-015 is a new topical treatment of onychomycosis and Phase 3 results approaching. Moberg Pharma has a
history of running operations in the US and also within this indication.
Financials: 2
Given the divestment of the OTC business in 2019, the finances are healthy, ahead of the extra shareholder payment in November
this year. Current funding, we believe, supports operations until about mid-2020.
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PROFITABILITY 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E ROE 3% -1% 1% -9% 20% ROCE 6% 0% 2% -8% 24% ROIC 5% 0% 5% -9% 19% EBITDA margin 23% -21% 24% -177% 67% EBIT margin 15% -27% 24% -177% 47% Net margin 5% -30% 20% -177% 37%
Please comment on the changes in Rating factors……
INCOME STATEMENT 2018 2019 19/20EE
20/21E 21/22E
Net sales 439 16 49 15 169 Total operating costs -337 -19 -37 -42 -55 EBITDA 102 -3 12 -27 114 Depreciation -3 -1 0 0 0 Amortization -34 0 0 0 -34 Impairment charges 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 65 -4 12 -27 80 Share in profits 0 0 0 0 0 Net financial items -39 -1 -2 0 0 Exchange rate dif. 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 26 -5 10 -27 80 Tax -6 0 0 0 -17 Net earnings 20 -5 10 -27 63
BALANCE SHEET 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E
Assets Current assets Cash in banks 111 919 11 0 18 Receivables 76 13 3 2 30 Inventories 25 0 1 0 14 Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 Current assets 212 932 16 2 62 Fixed assets Tangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 Associated comp. 0 0 0 0 0 Investments 0 0 0 0 0 Goodwill 97 0 0 0 0 Cap. exp. for dev. 0 0 0 0 0 O intangible rights 937 256 319 344 321 O non-current assets 0 11 0 0 0 Total fixed assets 1,035 266 319 344 321 Deferred tax assets 5 12 11 5 0 Total (assets) 1,252 1,210 345 350 383 Liabilities Current liabilities Short-term debt 0 0 0 37 0 Accounts payable 56 57 22 19 25 O current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 56 57 22 56 25 Long-term debt 594 24 0 0 0 O long-term liabilities 7 8 8 6 6 Convertibles 0 0 0 0 0 Total Liabilities 658 89 30 62 31 Deferred tax liab 0 0 0 0 0 Provisions 0 0 0 0 0 Shareholders' equity 594 1,121 315 289 352 Minority interest (BS) 0 0 0 0 0 Minority & equity 594 1,121 315 289 352 Total liab & SE 1,252 1,210 345 350 383
FREE CASH FLOW 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E
Net sales 439 16 49 15 169 Total operating costs -337 -19 -37 -42 -55 Depreciations total -37 -1 0 0 -34 EBIT 65 -4 12 -27 80 Taxes on EBIT -15 0 0 0 -17 NOPLAT 50 -4 12 -27 63 Depreciation 37 1 0 0 34 Gross cash flow 87 -3 12 -27 97 Change in WC -5 89 -26 0 -36 Gross CAPEX -91 767 -52 -25 -12 Free cash flow -9 853 -67 -52 49
CAPITAL STRUCTURE 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E
Equity ratio 47% 93% 91% 82% 92% Debt/equity ratio 100% 2% 0% 13% 0% Net debt 484 -895 -11 37 -18 Capital employed 1,078 226 304 325 334 Capital turnover rate 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
GROWTH 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E
Sales growth 0% -96% 214% -69% 1,014% EPS growth (adj) 78% -123% -312% -368% -335%
DATA PER SHARE 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E EPS 1.14 -0.26 0.55 -1.48 3.47 EPS adj 1.07 -0.24 0.52 -1.39 3.26 Dividend 0.00 44.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net debt 27.73 -49.26 -0.62 2.03 -0.97 Total shares 17.44 18.18 18.18 18.18 18.18
VALUATION 2018 2019 19/20E 20/21E 21/22E EV 1,233.6 302.5 1,392.2 1,440.3 1,385.8 P/E 37.8 -253.4 140.3 -52.3 22.3 P/E diluted 40.3 -269.4 149.2 -55.6 23.7 P/Sales 1.7 76.8 28.6 92.4 8.3 EV/Sales 2.8 19.4 28.4 94.9 8.2 EV/EBITDA 12.1 -94.0 116.0 -53.7 12.1 EV/EBIT 19.0 -71.7 116.0 -53.7 17.4 P/BV 1.3 1.1 4.5 4.9 4.0
SHARE INFORMATION Reuters code MOB.ST List Small cap Share price 77.2 Total shares, million 18.2 Market Cap, MSEK 1403.4 MANAGEMENT & BOARD CEO Anna Ljung CFO Mark Beverage Chairman Peter Wolpert FINANCIAL INFORMATION Q3 report November 06, 2019 Q2 report February 11, 2020 Q3 report November 19, 2019 FY 2020 Results August 11, 2020 ANALYSTS Redeye AB Klas Palin Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr [email protected] 111 57 Stockholm Anders Hedlund [email protected]
SHARE PERFORMANCE GROWTH/YEAR 16/18E 1 month 19.3 % Net sales -66.6 % 3 month 12.4 % Operating profit adj -57.0 % 12 month 51.4 % EPS, just -30.4 % Since start of the year 79.5 % Equity -27.1 %
SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE % CAPITAL VOTES Östersjöstiftelsen 12.9 % 12.9 % Avanza Pension 11.7 % 11.7 % Staffan Persson 11.6 % 11.6 % Armistice Capital LLC 10.0 % 10.0 % UBS Securities Llc 4.0 % 4.0 % Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 4.0 % 4.0 % Peter Wolpert 2.5 % 2.5 % Erik Lindbärg 2.2 % 2.2 % Societe Generale 2.2 % 2.2 % Carl Erik Norman 1.9 % 1.9 %
DCF VALUATION WACC (%) 1.0 % Fair value e. per share, SEK 96.5 Share price, SEK 77.2
REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019
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Redeye Rating and Background Definitions Company Quality
Company Quality is based on a set of quality checks across three categories; PEOPLE, BUSINESS, FINANCE. These
are the building blocks that enable a company to deliver sustained operational outperformance and attractive long-
term earnings growth.
Each category is grouped into multiple sub-categories assessed by five checks. These are based on widely
accepted and tested investment criteria and used by demonstrably successful investors and investment firms. Each
sub-category may also include a complementary check that provides additional information to assist with
investment decision-making.
If a check is successful, it is assigned a score of one point; the total successful checks are added to give a score for
each sub-category. The overall score for a category is the average of all sub-category scores, based on a scale that
ranges from 0 to 5 rounded up to the nearest whole number.
The overall score for each category is then used to generate the size of the bar in the Company Quality graphic.
People
At the end of the day, people drive profits. Not numbers. Understanding the motivations of people behind a business
is a significant part of understanding the long-term drive of the company. It all comes down to doing business with
people you trust, or at least avoiding dealing with people of questionable character.
The People rating is based on quantitative scores in seven categories: Passion, Execution, Capital Allocation,
Communication, Compensation, Ownership, and Board.
Business
If you don’t understand the competitive environment and don’t have a clear sense of how the business will engage
customers, create value and consistently deliver that value at a profit, you won’t succeed as an investor. Knowing
the business model inside out will provide you some level of certainty and reduce the risk when you buy a stock.
The Business rating is based on quantitative scores grouped into five sub-categories: Business Scalability, Market
Structure, Value Proposition, Economic Moat, and Operational Risks.
Financials
Investing is part art, part science. Financial ratios make up most of the science. Ratios are used to evaluate the
financial soundness of a business. Also, these ratios are key factors that will impact a company’s financial
performance and valuation. However, you only need a few to determine whether a company is financially strong or
weak.
The Financial rating is based on quantitative scores that are grouped into five separate categories: Earnings Power,
Profit Margin, Growth Rate, Financial Health, and Earnings Quality.
REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019
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Redeye Equity Research team
Management Björn Fahlén
Håkan Östling
Technology Team Jonas Amnesten
Henrik Alveskog
Dennis Berggren
Havan Hanna
Kristoffer Lindström
Fredrik Nilsson
Tomas Otterbeck
Eddie Palmgren
Oskar Vilhelmsson
Viktor Westman
Linus Sigurdsson (Trainee)
Editorial Jim Andersson
Eddie Palmgren
Mark Sjöstedt
Johan Kårestedt (Trainee)
Life Science Team Anders Hedlund
Arvid Necander
Erik Nordström
Klas Palin
Jakob Svensson
Ludvig Svensson
Oskar Bergman
REDEYE Equity Research Moberg Pharma 22 October 2019
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Disclaimer Important information Redeye AB ("Redeye" or "the Company") is a specialist financial advisory boutique that focuses on small and mid-cap growth companies in the Nordic region. We focus on the technology and life science sectors. We provide services within Corporate Broking, Corporate Finance, equity research and investor relations. Our strengths are our award-winning research department, experienced advisers, a unique investor network, and the powerful distribution channel redeye.se. Redeye was founded in 1999 and since 2007 has been subject to the supervision of the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. Redeye is licensed to; receive and transmit orders in financial instruments, provide investment advice to clients regarding financial instruments, prepare and disseminate financial analyses/recommendations for trading in financial instruments, execute orders in financial instruments on behalf of clients, place financial instruments without position taking, provide corporate advice and services within mergers and acquisition, provide services in conjunction with the provision of guarantees regarding financial instruments and to operate as a Certified Advisory business (ancillary authorization). Limitation of liability This document was prepared for information purposes for general distribution and is not intended to be advisory. The information contained in this analysis is based on sources deemed reliable by Redeye. However, Redeye cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information. The forward-looking information in the analysis is based on subjective assessments about the future, which constitutes a factor of uncertainty. Redeye cannot guarantee that forecasts and forward-looking statements will materialize. Investors shall conduct all investment decisions independently. This analysis is intended to be one of a number of tools that can be used in making an investment decision. All investors are therefore encouraged to supplement this information with additional relevant data and to consult a financial advisor prior to an investment decision. Accordingly, Redeye accepts no liability for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this analysis. Potential conflict of interest Redeye’s research department is regulated by operational and administrative rules established to avoid conflicts of interest and to ensure the objectivity and independence of its analysts. The following applies:
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Rating People Business Financials
5p 10 8 1 3p - 4p 73 58 28 0p - 2p 11 28 65 Company N 94 94 94
CONFLICT OF INTERESTS
Klas Palin owns shares in the company : Yes Anders Hedlund owns shares in the company : No Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and receives/have
received compensation from the Company in connection with this.
