MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · 25.09.2020 · • The Spanish...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 25

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• The Spanish government has recommended that the capital city, Madrid, is placed

into a full COVID-19 lockdown due to a spike in cases in the city. Spain recorded its

fourth consecutive day of 10,000+ new cases registered on September 24, taking the

country’s overall caseload since the start of the pandemic to over 700,000. The

tighter lockdown restrictions already in place in 37 zones of the city have been

expanded to 45 zones as of today.

• There remains no sign of a sustained decline in new cases recorded in the United

States, with the seven-day average new case load remaining above 40,000 new

cases per day for the past week. The number of fatalities due to the virus also

continues to plateau rather than fall, with the seven-day average around 700-800

fatalities per day over the course of September.

• For the second day in a row the United Kingdom registered its highest single-day

total of new cases on September 24, with 6,634 new cases added to the total. The

record figure came on the day the country entered a period of stricter restrictions,

with hospitality venues forced to close at 10pm and fines for breaking lockdown

restrictions increased.

• Having so far avoided the mass-scale outbreaks recorded in many of its

neighbouring countries, the Netherlands registered its highest number of new cases

on September 24, with 2,544 added to the total. The country’s total number of cases

stands at 103k on September 24, compared to 281k in Germany, 108k in Belgium,

and 511k in France.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 25. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

24-Jun 24-Jul 24-Aug 24-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1000BST September 25. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,

Sweden and the UK not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 32,141,225 361,390 22,244,064 981,808 6,704 3.1 0.91%

Argentina 678,266 13,467 536,589 14,766 390 2.2 1.73%

Australia 27,000 20 24,521 869 8 3.2 0.07%

Belgium 108,768 1,881 N/A 9,965 6 9.2 1.50%

Brazil 4,657,702 66,338 4,102,954 139,808 1,703 3.0 0.64%

Canada 151,087 1,148 130,576 9,297 3 6.2 0.80%

Chile 451,634 1,731 426,876 12,469 124 2.8 0.34%

China 90,424 15 85,323 4,738 0 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 790,823 6,555 662,277 24,746 0 3.1 0.88%

France 536,289 27,833 95,980 31,524 77 5.9 2.43%

Germany 281,346 2,321 248,523 9,436 13 3.4 0.64%

Hong Kong 5,056 7 N/A 104 0 2.1 0.18%

India 5,732,518 86,508 4,756,164 91,149 1,129 1.6 1.36%

Iran 436,319 3,521 367,829 25,015 175 5.7 0.78%

Italy 304,323 1,786 221,762 35,781 23 11.8 0.54%

Japan 80,490 481 72,066 1,540 15 1.9 0.54%

Mexico 715,457 5,408 605,796 75,439 490 10.5 0.64%

Peru 782,695 6,149 636,489 31,870 302 4.1 0.72%

Russia 1,123,976 6,489 930,955 19,867 147 1.8 0.56%

Saudi Arabia 331,857 498 314,793 4,599 30 1.4 0.16%

Singapore 57,654 15 57,333 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 667,049 1,861 595,589 16,283 77 2.4 0.25%

South Korea 23,455 114 20,978 395 2 1.7 0.42%

Spain 704,209 10,653 N/A 31,118 84 4.4 1.72%

Sweden 90,289 533 N/A 5,878 2 6.5 0.39%

UK 416,363 6,634 N/A 41,902 40 10.1 1.25%

US 6,977,658 44,110 2,710,183 202,798 914 2.9 0.64%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 25, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MapChart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Brazil, US,

France, Argentina, Spain, Israel, UK, Colombia.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel,

Montenegro, France, Bahrain, Brazil, Argentina, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Spain, Bahamas. Countries with population

below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 23. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain,

Panama, Israel, Kuwait, Peru, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Brazil,

India, U Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, Chile.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Bahamas,

Rwanda, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Israel, Montenegro, Malta, Mexico. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from September 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru,

Belgium, Spain, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · 25.09.2020 · • The Spanish...

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