MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ......2020/09/28 · day data submissions,...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 28

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• India’s caseload crosses the six million mark on September 27, just two days after

the US reached seven million cases. The two countries are the worst-hit worldwide

with regards to cases, accounting for 39.9% of the global total. When combined with

the third worst-hit country, Brazil, the three account for 54.2% of global cases and

44.3% of COVID-19 fatalities.

• France is set to enact a new series of COVID-19 restrictions on September 28 as the

number of new cases continues to rise, notably in the country’s large cities. French

authorities do not release full data for new cases over the weekend, but an additional

16,132 cases were added to the total on September 25. The new restrictions affect

12 cities, including Paris, where bars will be forced to shut and the sale of alcohol

banned from 10pm, and Marseille, which has been put on a state of maximum alert

with all bars and restaurants closed since Saturday.

• Canada recorded and average of 1,370 new cases per day over the past seven days.

This is the highest weekly average since May 9. The spike in cases has not

translated into an escalation in fatalities, which have remained stable at an average

of seven per day over the past week. The two most populous provinces (Ontario and

Quebec) remain the centres of the outbreak, as was the case in the first wave of

infections earlier in the year.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 28. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

27-Jun 27-Jul 27-Aug 27-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 14300BST September 28. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,

Sweden and the UK not available. No Case/fatality data from Spain or Sweden from September 27.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 33,077,724 237,712 22,953,639 997,734 3,591 3.0 0.92%

Argentina 711,325 8,841 565,935 15,749 206 2.2 1.72%

Australia 27,044 4 24,674 875 3 3.2 0.07%

Belgium 114,179 1,376 N/A 9,980 6 8.7 1.58%

Brazil 4,732,309 14,318 4,172,711 141,741 335 3.0 0.58%

Canada 155,428 1,658 133,204 9,318 5 6.0 0.92%

Chile 457,901 1,922 431,704 12,641 50 2.8 0.37%

China 90,483 27 85,381 4,739 0 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 813,056 7,018 711,471 25,488 192 3.1 0.87%

France 552,473 19 97,091 31,675 0 5.7 2.44%

Germany 286,339 1,313 252,563 9,464 5 3.3 0.63%

Hong Kong 5,065 6 N/A 105 0 2.1 0.09%

India 6,074,702 82,170 5,016,520 95,542 1,039 1.6 1.46%

Iran 446,448 3,362 376,531 25,589 195 5.7 0.80%

Italy 309,870 1,766 224,417 35,835 17 11.6 0.55%

Japan 82,186 483 74,495 1,549 2 1.9 0.54%

Mexico 730,317 3,886 616,696 76,430 187 10.5 0.66%

Peru 800,142 5,558 664,490 32,142 105 4.0 0.69%

Russia 1,146,273 7,764 942,619 20,239 99 1.8 0.60%

Saudi Arabia 333,193 403 317,005 4,683 28 1.4 0.15%

Singapore 57,700 15 57,367 27 0 0.05 0.03%

South Africa 670,766 1,268 603,721 16,398 22 2.4 0.21%

South Korea 23,661 50 21,292 406 5 1.7 0.38%

Spain 716,481 0 N/A 31,232 0 4.4 1.64%

Sweden 90,923 0 N/A 5,880 0 6.5 0.43%

UK 434,969 5,692 N/A 41,988 17 9.7 1.41%

US 7,115,008 36,919 2,766,280 204,756 266 2.9 0.64%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000


Belgium

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000


Canada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Japan

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Spain

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 28, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MapChart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 27. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Brazil

Argentina, Russia, Colombia, UK, Peru, Israel, Mexico

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 27. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel,

Bahrain, Oman, Argentina, Montenegro, Peru, Lebanon, Tunisia, Colombia, Cape Verde. Countries with population below 100k

excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 27. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain,

Israel, Panama, Peru, Kuwait, Chile, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 27. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India,

Brazil, US, Argentina, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Indonesia.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 27. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Comoros, UAE,

Oman, Argentina, Panama, Colombia, Peru, Libya, Paraguay, Israel. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, Mapchart.net, MNI. N.b. Data from September 24. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru,

Belgium, Spain, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ......2020/09/28 · day data submissions,...

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