Milk Market Situation · 17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 10000 11000 12000...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 17 Nov 2016

17 Nov 2016

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

+2.0%+7.8% +9.9%

+5.7%+0.3%

-14.7%

-0.8%

+0.6% +2.4%

EU Productions (Jan-Aug 2016 compared to Jan-Aug 2015)

17 Nov 2016

-5.0% to -3.8%

-3.8% to -3.1%

-3.1% to -1.5%

-1.5% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.1%

+1.1% to +2.0%

+2.0% to +4.9%

+4.9% to +25.0%

n/a+1.7

+4.9

+0.9

+2.7

+2.5

+0.9

+7.6

+2.0+1.8

-0.3

+1.1

+24.3

+1.9

-1.4

+13.9

+0.8

+3.4

+10.6

+1.7

+3.2

-4.0

+5.6

0

-4.0

+0.6

-1.6

-3.1

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-3.6

17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU - Cows' milk collected

2016

2015

2014

2013

Jan-Aug 2016/15 : +2.0%

Last update : Jan-AugSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Aug 2016/15 : + 2.0%

17 Nov 2016

28.3

33.4

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to October 2016*)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010

* : provisional figures

* : estimated price in running month

17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein

content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

55.1

47.7

38.3

36.6

31.3

30.2

29.8

29.6

29.5

28.9

28.7

27

.8

27.4

27.1

27.1

27.0

26.5

26.4

26.4

26.3

25.8

25.3

24.8

24.2

23.4

23.3

23.1

21.2

21.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

CY MT GR FI IT FR AT SE IE HR ES EU DK BG PT BE LU PL DE NL GB RO SI SK HU EE CZ LT LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk Price 2015

Milk Price 2016

Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)

( Sep 2016 vs Sep 2015 )

Estimates for DK, IE, ES, SE

17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009

Latest price : 199 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +12%

209

205

199198

190188 188

182

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

BE DE EU Avg. NL LV IE CZ PL

in E

UR

/100 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 6.11.2016)

I.P. : 169.8

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

17 Nov 2016


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009



17 Nov 2016

435 433 428 426416

410401 396 394 393 391

381

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

DE NL BE SK GB EU

Avg.

HR IE PL EE CZ LV

EU

R/1

00 kg

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 6.11.2016)

Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2

I.P. = 221.75

17 Nov 2016

410

199

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16

in E

UR

/100 kg

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP

(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price

SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices

SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

17 Nov 2016

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EUR/1

00 kg

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2013 2014 2015 2016



17 Nov 2016

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2013 2014 2015 2016



150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2 013 2 014 2 015 2 016



50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2013 2014 2015 2016 Series2



17 Nov 2016

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

17 Nov 2016

-25 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - BUTTER

Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016)

Quantity offered (2014)

Quantity offered (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015)


17 Nov 2016

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

55 000

60 000

65 000

70 000

75 000

80 000


Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - S.M.P.

Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2014)

Quantity offered - max 210 days (2015) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015)

Quantity offered - max 210 days (2016) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)

17 Nov 2016

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000


Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016) - CHEESE

Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)

17 Nov 2016

-25 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

250 000

275 000

300 000

325 000

350 000

375 000

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2015-2016)Buying-in quantity at fixed price

Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016)



Cumulate quantity up to 13.11.2016 (buying-in at fixed price) : 256 026 T

17 Nov 2016 source: www.xe.com

US Dollar

USD/EUR

1.0777

17 Nov 2016

2 3382 212

1 926

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Ju

l 10

Oct

10

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Ja

n 1

3

Apr

13

Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Ja

n 1

4

Apr

14

Ju

l 14

Oct

14

Ja

n 1

5

Apr

15

Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Ja

n 1

6

Apr

16

Ju

l 16

Oct

16

Pri

ces in

US

D/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

17 Nov 2016

3 1003 0722 921

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan 1

2

Apr

12

Jul 1

2

Oct

12

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 1

3

Oct

13

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 1

4

Oct

14

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 1

5

Oct

15

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 1

6

Oct

16

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


17 Nov 2016

4 100

4 545

4 267

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Ja

n 1

0

Apr

10

Ju

l 10

Oct

10

Ja

n 1

1

Apr

11

Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Ja

n 1

2

Apr

12

Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Ja

n 1

3

Apr

13

Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Ja

n 1

4

Apr

14

Ju

l 14

Oct

14

Ja

n 1

5

Apr

15

Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Ja

n 1

6

Apr

16

Ju

l 16

Oct

16

Pri

ces in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


17 Nov 2016

3 613

4 247

3 510

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Ja

n 1

0

Apr

10

Ju

l 10

Oct

10

Ja

n 1

1

Apr

11

Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Ja

n 1

2

Apr

12

Ju

l 12

Oct

12

Ja

n 1

3

Apr

13

Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Ja

n 1

4

Apr

14

Ju

l 14

Oct

14

Ja

n 1

5

Apr

15

Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Ja

n 1

6

Apr

16

Ju

l 16

Oct

16

Pri

ces in

US

D/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


17 Nov 2016

131 203

181 699

336 247346 861

24 644 22 937

19 594

19 741

6 577 3 985

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2015 2016

BUTTER & Butteroil Exports

EU-28 (up to Sep)New Zealand (up to Sep)Australia (up to Sep)United States (up to Sep)Argentina (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

532 501

433 091

264 351303 226

144 562 .113 998 .

419 529 . 408 730 .

17 963 17 801

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

2015 2016

SMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Sep)New Zealand (up to Sep)Australia (up to Sep)United States (up to Sep)Argentina (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

311

371

302

866

922 251 .

885 256 .47

719

51 3

88

29 9

98

51 5

15

89 0

43

83 3

38

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

2015 2016

WMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Sep)New Zealand (up to Sep)Australia (up to Sep)United States (up to Sep)Argentina (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

524 113

596 686

229 785251 325

123

373

120

680

246 545210 387

31 676 37 619

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2015 2016

CHEESE Exports

EU-28 (up to Sep)New Zealand (up to Sep)Australia (up to Sep)United States (up to Sep)Argentina (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

119126

94102 102

120

135

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2016 exports compared to 2015 : + 36%

BUTTER exports

2015

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

229

376

515 520

407

648692

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2016 exports compared to 2015 : - 19%

SMP exports

2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

569

667 673

768 786

721 719

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

458 445

388 386 374390 400

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2016 exports compared to 2015 : + 14%

CHEESE exports

2015

2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Sep 2016 exports compared to 2015 : - 3%

WMP exports

2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

19 72616 576

28 182

37 281

63 494 62 815

50 324

64 641

23 374

33 500

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2015 2016

BUTTER + Butteroil Imports

EU-28 (up to Sep)

United States (up to Sep)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Sep)

Mexico (up to Aug)

17 Nov 2016

2 5652 989

148 394

183 392

70 233

88 978

164 820

152 054

42 290

25 508

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2015 2016

SMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Sep)

Mexico (up to Aug)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Sep)

Japan (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

2 537 5 20519 171 28 260

288 166

344 689

7 864 12 1074 941 9 867

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2015 2016

WMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Sep)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Sep)


Mexico (up to Aug)

17 Nov 2016

44 579 52 911

136 680146 173

129 253

148 530

55 129

70 401

184 311 190 553

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2015 2016

CHEESE Imports

EU-28 (up to Sep)


Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Sep)

Japan (up to Sep)

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5472 73 68

136 139

95

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2016 compared to 2015 : - 1%

2015

2016

0

25

50

75

100

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

28 2336

48 52

8071

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2016 compared to 2015 : + 28%

2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2414 13 18 14 22

40

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

25

50

75

100

125

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

38 35

98

49 50 4555

1000 Tonnes

Egypt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnesJan-Sep 2016 compared to 2015 : + 32%

2015

2016


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jul 2016 compared to 2015 : + 4%

2015

2016

2016

Jan-Jul 2016 compared to 2015 : + 4%

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

70 89130

168

235 253

200

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2016 compared to 2015 : - 8%

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

93 98129

112 120

168131

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8

6327 27

11295

113

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

104132 128 136

155 146 145

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

2015

2014

Jan-Aug 2016 compared to 2015 : + 27%

2016

2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 3%

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

104132 128 136

155 146 145

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 3%

2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

177

326 320406

619671

347

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


1000 tonnes


2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

200167

204 188142

204 210

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2015

2014 2016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

33 39 51 64 74 81 75

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

74 83 81 74 90 85 75

1000 Tonnes

Singapore

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


20152016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnesJan-Aug 2016 compared to 2015 : - 2%

2015

2013 2016

Jan-Aug 2016 compared to 2015 : - 2%

2016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

229294 296 316

440

316

208

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2016 compared to 2015 : + 15%

2015

2016

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

184 199 215 235 236 232 249

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes


20152016

17 Nov 2016

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

49 61 76 78 85 97 112

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

162138 143 154 148 165

200

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2016 compared to 2015 : - 2%

20152016

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2015

2016

17 Nov 2016

7 000

7 250

7 500

7 750

8 000

8 250

8 500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

nes

U.S. milk production

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source:USDA

Jan-Sep 2016 vs 2015 : + 1.7% (real monthly production)

17 Nov 2016 Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

nes

Jul-Sep 2016/17 compared to 2015/16 : - 9.9%

Australian milk production

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

17 Nov 2016 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

in 1

000 t

on

nes

.

Jun-Sep 2016/17 compared to 2015/16 : - 0.2%

NZ milk production

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

Anhydrous Milk Fat

+2.6$ 5 146

Butter

+4.0%$ 4 146

Butter MilkPowder

-5.4%$ 2 248

Cheddar

+0.9%$ 3 332

17 Nov 2016

GDT Auction results

+0.9%

Lactose

-4.0%$ 755

Rennet Casein

-4.8%$ 6 025

Skim MilkPowder

+6.5%$ 2 329

Whole MilkPowder

+19.8%$ 3 317

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 1751 November 2016

11.4%$ 3 327

Milk Market Situation · 17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 10000 11000 12000...

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Transcript of Milk Market Situation · 17 Nov 2016 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 10000 11000 12000...