Milankovitch, 1937

Orbital Theory of Ice Ages

3 dominant pacemakers of climate change

Eccentricity: 100,000 year cycle

Obliquity: 41,000 year cycle

Precession: 23,000 year cycle

Milankovitch, 1937

Orbital Theory of Ice Ages

3 dominant pacemakers of climate change

Eccentricity: 100,000 year cycle

Obliquity: 41,000 year cycle

Precession: 23,000 year cycle

• Eccentricity – 100,000 & 400,000 yrs

• Obliquity – 41,000 yrs

• Precession – 23,000 yrs

Earth wobbles in space so that its tilt changes between about 22 and

25 degrees on a cycle of about 41,000 years.

Changes in tilt change the severity of the seasons - more tilt means more severe seasons - warmer summers and colder

winters; less tilt means less severe seasons - cooler summers and milder

winters.

It is the cool summers which are thought to allow snow and ice to last from year to

year in high latitudes, eventually building up into massive ice sheets (moderate

winters – warm).

There are positive feedbacks in the climate system as well, because an Earth covered

with more snow reflects more of Sun's energy into space, causing additional cooling. In addition, it appears that the

amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere falls as ice sheets grow, also

adding to the cooling of the climate.

e = (a2 - b2)1/2  / a

Aphelion – when Earth is furthest from Sun.

~21,000 yr.

These three “orbital parameters” operate simultaneously, influencing the distribution of solar radiation on Earth (Insolation)

Milankovitch cycles are “Pacemakers of the Ice Ages”

Cool summers in the northern hemisphere, where most of Earth's land mass is located,

appear to allow snow and ice to persist to the next winter, allowing the development of large

ice sheets over hundreds to thousands of years. Conversely, warmer summers shrink ice sheets

by melting more ice than the amount accumulating during the winter.

The combination of the 41,000 year tilt cycle and the The combination of the 41,000 year tilt cycle and the 22,000 year precession cycles, plus the smaller 22,000 year precession cycles, plus the smaller eccentricity signal, affect the relative severity of eccentricity signal, affect the relative severity of

summer and winter, and are thought to control the summer and winter, and are thought to control the growth and retreat of ice sheets.growth and retreat of ice sheets.

Orbital changes occur over thousands of years, and the climate system may also take thousands of years

to respond to orbital forcing.

Theory suggests that the primary driver of ice ages is the total summer radiation received in northern latitude

zones where major ice sheets have formed in the past, near 65 degrees north.

Past ice ages correlate well to 65N summer insolation. Astronomical calculations show that 65N summer insolation should increase gradually over the next 25,000 years, and that no 65N summer insolation

declines sufficient to cause an ice age are expected in the next 50,000 - 100,000 years

Obliquity (41 ka cycle) dominates most of Earth history

but

Eccentricity (100 ka cycle) dominates the last 700 ka with higher amplitude changes and the “sawtooth”

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

million years before present

100 ka cycles (eccentricity) dominate the

late Pleistocene

41 ka cycles (obliquity) dominate thePliocene and early Pleistocene

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

million years before present

100 ka 41 ka

Orbital parameters have been operating throughout Earth history

But the energy changes between “glacial” and “interglacial” are actually very small, so they cannot explain all climate change

Why have we not always had ice ages?

Global climate of the Pleistocene and Holocene appears to be more susceptible to rapid change than in most of Earth history.

Thus the world today may be highly sensitive to things like atmospheric CO2 concentration