Mexico Hydrocarbons Negative - DDI 2013 AC

8/9/2019 Mexico Hydrocarbons Negative - DDI 2013 AC

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1NC

The plan is extremely controversial – oil riderRampton 13 (Roberta Rampton, Reuters, “U.S.-Mexico deal on expanded Gulf oil drilling still in limbo”,0!"#!$%, &' 0)!0!$%, *ttp!!+++.reuters.com!article!"0$%!0!"#!usa-mexico-oil-idUS"0'G0/"0$%0"#

1us*al2

3o 4nali5e t*e deal, ongress needs to pass legislation t*at gi6es t*e 7nterior 'epartmentt*e aut*orit8 it needs to implement t*e tec*nical aspects of t*e agreement. 9ut in t*eSenate last 8ear, dissension o6er an unrelated a+ of t*e Sea treat8 and t*e *eated politicsof t*e U.S. presidential election e:ecti6el8 put t*e deal on *old . 7n t*e +aning da8s of t*e lastongress, 'emocrats in t*e Senate t*oug*t t*e8 *ad found a 6e*icle to mo6e t*e bill, but t*e8 +ere foiled b8procedural ob;ections, said former Senator ouse natural resources *earing +it* administration oAcials last +ee?. 7n a ne+ t+ist, t*ebill includes a measure t*at +ould exempt U.S. oil companies drilling in t*e area from certaindisclosure rules t*at +ere part of t*e "0$0 'odd-Bran? 4nancial reform la+. 3*osedisclosures are strongl8 bac?ed b8 t*e C*ite >ouse and 'emocratic senators. &imed at curbingcorruption, t*e rules reDuire oil and mining companies to report pa8ments to an8 foreign go6ernment to t*e

Securities and =xc*ange ommission. Eil and business lobb8 groups are 4g*ting t*e rules in court.7nterior and State 'epartment oAcials did not directl8 comment on t*e pro6ision at a*earing last +ee?, sa8ing onl8 t*at t*e administration +ants to +or? +it* t*e >ouse ondetails of t*e bill so t*at t*e deal can be in place in time for t*e next sale of drilling leasesfor t*e Gulf, expected to be *eld in &ugust. 9ingaman said t*e exemption @complicatest*ings signi4cantl8@ for Duic? passage of t*e bill. @3*e8F6e added in some t*ings t*at aregoing to ma?e it diAcult to pass in t*at form,@ *e said, referring to t*e exemption. ast +ee?, t*e Senateenerg8 committee Duietl8 4led a one-page bill reecting t*e administrationFs suggested language, +ord for +ord,

+it* no mention of t*e disclosure exemption. 3*e timing of next steps is unclear.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/29/usa-mexico-oil-idUSL2N0DG0CV20130429http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/29/usa-mexico-oil-idUSL2N0DG0CV20130429


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Hydrocarbons link 2nc

The link is predicated on the rider bill attached to the plan –TH has a provision called the !odds "rank La# that ca$ses

in%ghting bet#een !emocrats& Rep$blicans& and oil lobbyists'This $ni($ely triggers the link – oil lobbyists inter)ere #ithe*orts to pass immigration d$ring the recess'

The plan is $npop$lar – makes investors v$lnterable& makesrigs $nsa)e& endangers coastal comm$nities& and removesenvironmental revie#+an Hollen ,-2. (Mar8land 'emocratic ongressman, 'emocrat, “3>= EU3=RE37=3& S>=B 3R&S9EU'&RH >H'RE&R9E &GR==M=3S &U3>ER7I&37E &3(>R $J$%2 &' 3>= EBBS>ER= ==RGH &' R ""%$2,” E=. Mr. Spea?er, +*ile 7 support t*e responsible K de6elopment of our

nationFs resources, t*is +ee?Fs legislation K prioriti/es drilling overprotecting investors& improving rig sa)ety& K respecting coastalcomm$nities and cond$cting appropriate environmental K revie#. Bort*ese reasons, 0 #ill be voting no and enco$raging my K colleag$es do thesame.K 3*e Euter ontinental S*elf 3ransboundar8 >8drocarbon &greementsK &ut*ori5ation &ct (>R $J$%2 pro6ides speci4c aut*ori5ation for t*e K recentl8 negotiatedU.S.-Mexico transboundar8 agreement and establis*es K standards for all futureo:s*ore oil and gas agreements +it* potential K foreign partners li?e anada, Russia, t*e 9a*amasand 9ermuda. 7f K LLage =$00JNNK >R $J$% +ere a clean bill, it +ould be completel8 non-contro6ersial. K 7nstead, HR 1,13 also proposes to #aive a provision o) the!odd-"rank K ct reDuiring disclosure of ot*er+ise secret pa8ments made to

foreign K go6ernments in connection +it* oil and gas de6elopment. Repealing t*is Krig*t-to-?no+ protection is *armful to in6estors and *as no place in K t*is ot*er+ise non-contro6ersial legislation.

bama opposes the transbo$ndary agreement& and itnegatively impacts nited tates ind$stry4eman& ,526 L9en, 3*e >ill, “C*ite >ouse Ocannot supportP >ouse US-Mexico drilling bill”*ttp!!t*e*ill.com!blogs!e"-+ire!e"-+ire!%0QQJ#-+*ite-*ouse-cannot-support-*ouse-us-mexico-drilling-bill, accessed J-"J-$% &SN

3*e C*ite >ouse said 3uesda8 t*at it opposes >ouse legislation to implement

a "0$" administration pact +it* Mexico on Gulf of Mexico drillingcooperation, citing “unnecessar8, extraneous pro6isions t*at seriousl8detract from t*e bill .”

3*e formal statement of administration polic8 bac?s t*e “goal” of t*e bill t*atPs coming tot*e >ouse oor Cednesda8 to implement t*e U.S.-Mexico 3ransboundar8 >8drocarbons&greement.9ut it cites pro6isions in t*e GE-crafted bill t*at exempts oil companies operating under t*epact from contro6ersial federal rules t*at force energ8 producers to disclose t*eir pa8mentsto foreign go6ernments.

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/307769-white-house-cannot-support-house-us-mexico-drilling-billhttp://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/307769-white-house-cannot-support-house-us-mexico-drilling-billhttp://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/307769-white-house-cannot-support-house-us-mexico-drilling-billhttp://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/307769-white-house-cannot-support-house-us-mexico-drilling-bill


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“&s a practical matter, t*is pro6ision +ould +ai6e t*e reDuirement for t*e disclosure of an8pa8ments made b8 resource extraction companies to t*e United States or foreign

go6ernments in accordance +it* a transboundar8 *8drocarbon agreement. 3*e pro6isiondirectl8 and negati6el8 impacts U.S. e:orts to increase transparenc8 andaccountabilit8 , particularl8 in t*e oil, gas, and minerals sectors, ” t*e C*ite>ouse EAce of Management and 9udget said.

7lan sparks a debate – bama and Ho$se disagree

8oman& ,52, L1aren 9oman, Senior =ditor at Rig5one.com, ;ournalism at 3exas &M,"0$% (“C*ite >ouse annot Support Gulf 3ransboundar8 9ill,” Rig5one.com,


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malapportioned - far more so toda8 t*an +as t*e true at t*e Bounding, or e6en a centur8ago. "$Q Senators representing onl8 about eig*t percent of t*e countr8Fs population can *alta treat8. "$) &c*ie6ing support of a t+o-t*irds ma;orit8 also reDuires pla8ing to t*epolari5ed extremes of modern &merican politics. "$# onsider, b8 +a8 of illustration, t*edi:erence in ideological positions of t*e 4ft8-4rst 6ote in t*e Senate 6ersus t*e sixt8-se6ent*. 7f +e arra8 t*e senators in t*e $0#t* ongress from most liberal to most

conser6ati6e according to a +idel8 used measure of ideological position, +e see t*at in t*e$0#t* ongress t*e sixt8-se6ent* senator +as ;ust o6er t+ice as conser6ati6e as t*e 4ft8-4rst senator. ""0 7n t*e LV$%$$N re6erse dimension, t*e sixt8-se6ent* senator +as also ;usto6er t+ice as liberal as t*e 4ft8-4rst. 7n ot*er +ords, t*e superma;orit8 reDuirement meanstreaties must gain t*e support of senators t*at are t+ice as conser6ati6e or liberal as t*e so-called median 6oter in t*e Senate. ""$

Rati%cation process leads to backlash and presidentialinvolvement9politically controversialTaylor 13 (*il 3a8lor, en6ironment and energ8 reporter, == publis*ing, “== U.S.-Mexico transboundar8 agreement mired in ongress,”*ttp!!+++.foreign.senate.go6!publications!do+nload!oil-mexico-and-t*e-transboundar8-agreement,


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& nearl8 8ear-old agreement to allo+ t*e ;oint de6elopment of oil reser6oirsstraddling t*e U.S.-Mexico maritime border in t*e Gulf of Mexico stalled lastmont* in t*e Senate, stranding a +idel8 supported measure man8 argue +ould increase domestic energ8securit8 and impro6e t*e safet8 of o:s*ore drilling.K 3*e agreement announced b8 go6ernment oAcials lastBebruar8 in os abos, Mexico, creates a frame+or? for U.S. o:s*ore drilling companies and MexicoPs etrWleos

Mexicanos, or emex, to ;ointl8 de6elop oil production in an area nearl8 t*e si5e of e+


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Hegemony


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Hegemony – 1NC

1' Rapid ;exican gro#th no# - ;an$)act$ring56 (Call Street


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“negati6e s*oc?” o6er $0 8ears eDui6alent to $$-$"Y of t*e "00) le6el of total exports.&lt*oug* t*is +ould be serious, it pales b8 comparison +it* t*e s*oc? t*e Mexican econom8experienced from $#)T to $#)J, +*en oil +as a far more crucial component of t*e nationaleconom8. Eur anal8sis 4nds t*at t*e Mexican econom8 is no+ suAcientl8 liberated from itspre6ious oil dependence to be capable of absorbing t*e s*oc? +it*out a ma;or crisis (Ros"0$$2. 3*ere +ould be important conseDuences bot* for t*e balance of pa8ments and for

t*e 4scal accounts, but t*ese could be managed t*roug* appropriate polic8 responses. Borexample, t*e export s*oc? mig*t reDuire a more competiti6e exc*ange rate, to stimulatecompensator8 non-oil exports. 3*e 4scal e:orts +ould be more serious, and could pro6e“potentiall8 catastrop*ic” if t*e ad;ustment came t*roug* t*e slas*ing of public in6estmentrat*er t*an t*roug* compensating increases in non-oil public re6enues of debt 4nancing. 9utsuc* declining oil re6enues need not be negati6e for o6erall economic gro+t*. =6er8t*ing+ould depend upon +*et*er t*e go6ernment opted for an orderl8 ad;ustmentZor resortedto s*ort-term emergenc8 cuts t*at *armed t*e long-term competiti6eness of t*e o6eralleconom8.

' No 7B;BD re)orms - concessions are prere($isite7ress T+ >51> (ress 3/ sta: +riters, “Mexico opposition censures go6ernment”,0Q!$Q!$%, &' 0Q!$Q!$%, *ttp!!+++.presst6.ir!detail!"0$%!0Q!$T!%$%)T#!mexico-opposition-

censures-go6ernment! 1us*al2En Sunda8, Gusta6o Madero, leader of t*e ational &ction art8 (&2, and -13-"0$% L“*oose emex o6er t*e pact”,*ttp!!+++.economist.com!ne+s!leaders!"$T)$Q%0-successful-cross-part8-pact-*as-bro?en-congressional-gridloc?-it-must-not-become-obstacleN!sb*ag

3+o big reforms are needed. &n amendment to t*e constitution to allo+ pri6ate explorationand drilling in oil and gas 4elds +ould bring in foreign in6estment. &t t*e same time, t*e6alue-added-tax base s*ould be broadened, to allo+ t*e go6ernment to stop mil?ing emex.

3*e national cas*-co+ currentl8 contributes about a t*ird of t*e go6ernmentPs income,lea6ing little to in6est. emexPs po6ert8, and t*e absence of foreign in6estment, *a6e

pre6ented Mexico from unloc?ing its 6ast deep-+ater potential, as 9ra5il *as done. 7f implemented properl8 , energ8 reform could add more t*an one percentagepoint to MexicoPs annual G' gro+t*. 9ut some of t*e parties in Mr e[aPspact oppose t*e idea of reform. 3*e leftist art8 of t*e 'emocratic Re6olution(R'2 *as ta?en an over-my-dead-body approac h to an8 t*reat toemexPs monopol8. 3*e R'Ps erst+*ile presidential candidate, &ndr\s


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Manuel Wpe5 Ebrador, *as abandoned t*e part8 and is preparing to ta?e *ispopulist battle against energ8 reform to t*e streets. =6en parts of Mr e[aPso+n 7nstitutional Re6olutionar8 art8 (R72 are ner6ous about c*ange . &fter all,it created t*e monster in t*e 4rst place.

,' ;exico is not key to hegemony – their evidence cites military balancing in other co$ntries& not so)t po#erperceptions – no reason #e can:t rely on o$r tanks i) mexico is#avering – also o$r relationship #ith china solves - The ''relationship #ith China #ill matter more than any otherindivid$al bilateral relationship in terms o) determining thenited tatesE place in the #orld& especially in theeconomically cr$cial 7aci%c

>' 7lan collapses -China relations – oil competition8$rton 2??6 ('an, Bormer Representati6e from 7ndianaFs Tt* 'istrict, “>=&R7G EB 3>=

C=S3=R >=M7S>=R= SU9EMM733== EB 3>= >EUS= 73=R&37E& R=&37ESEMM733==,” Bederal e+s Ser6ice.2

atin &merica i s an attracti6e destination for *ina as it is an area of t*e +orld t*atis ric* in mineral resources, commodities and particularl8 energ8 sources. &st*e +orldFs second-largest consumer of oil, *ina is a leading competitor oft*e United States in t*e searc* for oil, gas and minerals in entral and Sout* =ast&sia, t*e Middle =ast, &frica and no+ in atin &merica. *ina alone accounts for 0percent of t*e global gro+t* in oil demand in t*e last four 8ears, according tot*e United States =nerg8 'epartment, and its national consumption is pro;ected torise to $".) million barrels a da8 from T.TJ million barrels no+, o6er t*e next "0 8ears.Most of all, that oil #ill need to be imported. 3*e United States, b8 comparison,no+ uses "0. million barrels a da8, +it* nearl8 $" million barrels of it imported. &s +e all

?no+, oil is a %nite reso$rce and the competition to exploit it a /ero-s$m game . 3*e more global oil t*e *inese gobble up, t*e less oil a6ailableto o+ into &merican po+er plants, commercial truc?s and *ome *eatings8stems. CeF6e alread8 seen t*e e:ect at t*e gas pump as gas prices mo6ee6er *ig*er, sDuee5ing economic gro+t*. Cit* t*e largest oil reser6es outside t*eMiddle =ast and a president +*o sa8s t*at *is countr8 needs to di6ersif8 its energ8business be8ond t*e United States, /ene5uela *as emerged as an ob6iouscontender for 9ei;ingFs attention. *ina *as also signed accords +it* eruand is no+ exploring pro;ects in 9oli6ia and olombia. Burt*ermore, *ina isalso interested in de6eloping t*e anadian tar sands, +*ere estimates ofreco6erable *ea68 oil range from $QT billion to $.J trillion barrels.

.' No transition #arsFettweis 10 (Christopher, Assistant professor IR @ Tulane, Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy, Surial

(!!"#$""%&' Apr)ay, *ol+ - Issue -, p#.%-, -/p&Ene potential explanation for t*e gro+t* of global peace can be dismissed fairl8 Duic?l8 US

actions do not seem to *a6e contributed muc*. 3*e limited e6idence suggests t*at t*ere islittle reason to belie6e in t*e stabilising po+er of t*e US *egemon , and t*att*ere is no relation bet+een t*e relati6e le6el of &merican acti6ism and


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international stabilit8. 'uring t*e $##0s, t*e United States cut bac? on itsdefence spending fairl8 substantiall8. 98 $##), t*e United States +as spendingX$00 billion less on defence in real terms t*an it *ad in $##0, a "TY reduction."# 3ointernationalists, defence *a+?s and ot*er belie6ers in *egemonic stabilit8, t*isirresponsible Opeace di6idendP endangered bot* national and global securit8. Oo seriousanal8st of &merican militar8 capabilitiesP, argued neo-conser6ati6es Cilliam 1ristol and

Robert 1agan in $##J, Odoubts t*at t*e defense budget *as been cut muc* too far to meet&mericaPs responsibilities to itself and to +orld peaceP.%0 &nd yet t*e 6erdict from t*e$##0s is fairl8 plain t*e +orld gre+ more peaceful +*ile t*e United Statescut its forces. o state seemed to belie6e t*at its securit8 +as endangeredb8 a less-capable US militar8 , or at least none too? an8 action t*at +ould suggest suc*a belief. o militaries +ere en*anced to address po+er 6acuums] no securit8dilemmas dro6e insecurit8 or arms races] no regional balancing occurred oncet*e stabilising presence of t*e US militar8 +as diminis*ed. 3*e rest of t*e +orld acted as ift*e t*reat of international +ar +as not a pressing concern, despite t*e reduction in US

militar8 capabilities. Most of all, t*e United States +as no less safe . 3*eincidence and magnitude of global conict declined +*ile t*e United States

cut its militar8 spending under resident 9ill linton, and ?ept declining as t*e GeorgeC. 9us* administration ramped t*e spending bac? up. omplex statistical anal8sis is$nnecessary to reac* t*e conclusion t*at +orld peace and US militar8expenditure are unrelated .


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DTN 1F2' Rapid ;exican gro#th

Long internal link chains are a mistake - #e can attack themevery#here

– 1NC 1 there is R70! ;exican gro#th no# they are not on thebrink o) collapse – that:s the


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DTN 3' il:s not key to the ;exican economyG

il is NT key to the ;exican economy – it is deco$pled )romit:s oil ind$stry and capable o) absorving any oil shock –

declining oil revin$es #o$ld not harm the over all economy –that:s the baker evidence

lso no oil shocks – their evidence is abo$t long term declines#hich o$r evidence says is no problem beca$se the ;exicangovernment can al#ays opt )or ($ote an orderly ad$stment orresort to c$ts – those #ill keep their economy alive – no reasonmexico can:t shi)t – this #as a hidden #arrant that takes o$tcase – it makes sense that mexico #o$ld impliemnt 7B;BD i)it:s ecnomy started to decline – their 1ac )rames the iss$es aseconomics shaping ;exican politics – no ne# 1ar arg$ments


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DTN > oil competition

1nc > the plan ca$ses massive China competition beca$seoil in latin merica is a %nite reso$rce and they are both

competing – china has it:s eye on reso$rces and it:s a /ero s$mgame – that:s b$rtn 2??6 – that t$rns the case – relationship #ith china is only key to hegemony – that:s their1ac evidence

No de)ense- any reason -China relations are resilient or highmean that hegemony is inevitable

predictive $ni($eness – it #o$ld trade o*& China ;exicorelations are high no# – it:s also perception based

=lisabet* ;alkin is a contributing +riter for 3*e e+ Hor? 3imes based in Mexico it8,1arla Iabludo6s?8 contributed reporting from Mexico it8, J-T-2?13 L“*inese residentMa?es 9ridge-9uilding 3rip to Mexico”, 3*e e+ Hor? 3imes on t*e Ceb, exisN

resident ^i


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importance of balancing our trade and in6estment relations*ip,FF Mr. e[a ieto said, noting promises from *ina to start b8accepting more teDuila and por? imports. *ina could also send a strong message b8 announcing in6estments in Mexicanmanufacturing, experts said, per*aps in t*e automobile industr8. FF&t least *a6ing t*e possibilit8 of greater *inese in6estment ont*e table mig*t allo+ *ina and Mexico to mo6e be8ond t*eir up-till-no+ Duite d8sfunctional and competiti6e relations*ip,FF Mr.

Berc*en +rote. Still, *inaFs interest in natural resources lea6es little doubt t*at it isloo?ing at future oil deals in Mexico. 7n a s8mbolic mo6e, MexicoFs state-o+ned oil monopol8, emex,signed an agreement during Mr. e[a ietoFs 6isit to *ina in &pril to s*ip %0,000 barrels a da8 to Sinopec, a state-o+ned compan8t*ere. MexicoFs ongress is expected to begin debating measures to open t*e countr8Fs closed oil industr8 to outside in6estment

later in t*e 8ear, alt*oug* it is unclear *o+ far t*at opening +ill go. Still, FFin Mexico t*e goal is to get to t*e *ead of t*e line in

energ8 reform,FF Mr. Gallag*er +rote. 'espite *inaFs rising inuence in atin &merica , t*eUnited States *as an opportunit8 to impro6e relations +it* t*e region, *e added.FF&s excited as atin &merican go6ernments are about t*e ne+ trade and 4nance from *ina, t*e8 are also getting concerned about

an o6erreliance on commodities and about t*e *ea68 toll on t*e en6ironment *inese-led gro+t* *as exacted,FF *e said. Theproblem is that the nited tates is not making an attractiveeno$gh co$ntero*er& *e said FFCe used to be able to dangle access to t*ebiggest econom8 in t*e +orld, but t*at is no longer enoug*.FF

;exico is the key to Latin merica"arns#orth and L>e i, rofessor of olitical Science at Merrimac? ollege, 9oston =3=R 3>= 'R&GE_*inaPs resence in atin &merica, "00Q,*ttp!!+++.+ilsoncenter.org!sites!default!4les!=nter'ragonBinal.pdf N

atin &merica *as been a maor battlegro$nd o) the @)oreign policy#ar ” bet+een *ina and 3ai+an o6er international legitimac8, recognition,

and status. *inaPs Duest to reco6er +*at it calls “t*e pro6ince of 3ai+anPP is one of t*etop issues on its foreign polic8 agenda. 7ts strateg8 against 3ai+an *as been bot* bilateral and global.9ilaterall8, *ina *as used a mix of economic diplomacy and militar8 and political mo6es to ?eep 3ai+an from claiming independence . Globall8, *inaPs strateg8 *as focused onde6eloping an international united front designed to marginali5e 3ai+an. Bearing 3ai+anPs pus* for international recognition +ill lead to its declaration of independence& 9ei;ing is determined to contain 3ai+an in e6er8 corner of t*e +orld,especiall8 in entral &merica and t*e aribbean, the stronghold o) Tai#an. 3ai+an

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2012/11/30/46430/the-united-states-and-mexico-the-path-forward/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf


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*as "% million people and +ell protected territor8. Het, of t*e United ationsP $#% member states, onl8 "% recogni5e 3ai+an as a

so6ereign state. Ef t*e "% countries t*at recogni5e 3ai+an, $" are in atin &mericaand t*e aribbean. 3ai+an *as been de6oting enormous e:orts to retain diplomatic recognition. 7f t*ese states +ere to s+itc* recognition from 3aipei to 9ei;ing , t*e damage to 3ai+anPs political con4dence and itsclaims of legitimac8 as a state +ould be seriousl8 undermined. &ccording to t*en-prime minister of

3ai+an Hu S*8i-?un in "00", 3ai+anPs allies in atin &merica and t*e aribbean “*a6e *elped us a lot and t*erefore +econsider t*is an area of maxim$m diplomatic importance'A" Under suc* circumstances, t*estrategic competition bet+een *ina and 3ai+an *as been intensi4ed in aregion far a+a8 from &sia.

Tai#an crisis escalates to -China N$clear #ar – nothingchecks this scenario*arles 4laser is a rofessor of olitical Science and 7nternational &:airs and 'irector oft*e 7nstitute for Securit8 and onict Studies at t*e =lliot Sc*ool of 7nternational &:airs atGeorge Cas*ington Uni6ersit8. 3*is essa8 dra+s on *is recent boo? Rational 3*eor8 of

7nternational olitics, Marc*!&pril 2?11 L“Cill *inaPs Rise ead to Car_”, Boreign &:airs,

ublis*ed b8 t*e ouncil on Boreign Relations,*ttp!!+++.st;oe.?$".in.us!ourpages!auto!"0$"!$$!$"!T%#T"T0!$$-0%0Y"0CillY"0*inasY"0RiseY"0eadY"0toY"0Car.pdf , sb*agN

3*e prospects for a6oiding intense militar8 competition and +ar ma8 be good, but gro+t* in *inaPs po+er ma8 ne6ert*eless reDuiresome c*anges in U.S. foreign polic8 t*at Cas*ington +ill 4nd disagreeable -- particularl8 regarding 3ai+an. &lt*oug* it lost control of

3ai+an during t*e *inese i6il Car more t*an six decades ago, *ina still considers 3ai+an to be partof its *omeland, and uni4cation remains a ?e8 political goal for 9ei;ing. *ina *as made clear t*at it+ill use force if 3ai+an declares independence , and muc* of *inaPscon6entional militar8 buildup *as been dedicated to increasing its abilit8 tocoerce 3ai+an and reducing t*e United StatesP abilit8 to inter6ene. 9ecause *inaplaces suc* *ig* 6alue on 3ai+an and because t*e United States and *ina -- +*ate6er t*e8 mig*t formall8agree to -- *a6e suc* di:erent attitudes regarding t*e legitimac8 of t*e status Duo, t*e issue poses specialdangers and c*allenges for t*e U.S.-*inese relations*ip, placing it in a di:erent categor8t*an


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4oes global and n$clearH$nkovic J (ee un?o6ic.pdf 2

& +ar bet+een *ina, 3ai+an and t*e U nited S tates *as t*e potential to escalate into an$clear conIict and a third #orld #ar, t*erefore, man8 countries ot*er t*an t*e primar8 actors could bea:ected b8 suc* a conict, including


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DTN .' No transition #ars

There:s no impact to heg decline or transition – empirics are ono$r side – look at the J?:s – the c$t the spending by 1??

billion in less than ten years& and NTH0N4 happeneda' ther co$ntries – no one lashed o$t& no one do$bted the

:s po#er or challenged $s – this #asn:t indication o)heg& b$t rather that #e don:t need to @en)orceA$nipolarity – retrenchment doesn:t create a violentvac$$m'

b' The – this is an impact t$rn – trends indicate decliningcapability increases peace beca$se the is less prone tolash o$t

That #as "ett#eis 1?

Ko$r evidence overestimates the :s ability to shape theinternational system – doesn:t contain conIict and #ont shapethe ne# m$ltipolar system*ristop*er Layne (&ssociate rofessor in t*e 9us* Sc*ool of Go6ernment and ublicSer6ice at 3exas &M Uni6ersit82 2??, “3*e eace of 7llusions” p $QJ-Q A second contention advanced by proponents of American hegemony is that the United States cannot withdraw from Eurasia because a great power war there could shape the post conflict international system in ways harmful to U.S. interests. Hence, theUnited States "could suffer few economic losses during a war, or even benefit somewhat, and still find the postwar environmentquite costly to its own trade and investment."sa his really is not an economic argument but rather an argument about theconsequences of Eurasia!s political and ideological, as well as economic, closure. roponents of hegemony fear that if great power

wars in Eurasia occur, they could bring to power militaristic or totalitarian regimes. #ere, several points need to be made. $irst,proponents of &merican *egemon8 o6erestimate t*e amount of inuencet*at t*e U nited St ates *as on t*e international s8stem. 3*ere are numerouspossible geopolitical ri6alries in =urasia. #ost of these will not culminate in war, but it!s a good bet thatsome will. %ut regardless of whether Eurasian great powers remain at peace, the outcomes are going to be caused more by those

states! calculations of their interests than by the presence of U.S. forces in Eurasia. 3*e United States *as onl8limited po+er to a:ect t*e amount of +ar and peace in t*e internationals8stem , and +*ate6er inuence it does *a6e i s being eroded b8 t*e creepingmultipolari5ation under +a8 in =urasia. Second, t*e possible bene4ts of@en6ironment s*aping@ *a6e to be +eig*ed against t*e possible costs of U.S.in6ol6ement in a big =urasian +ar. Binall8, distilled to its essence, t*is

argument is a restatement of t*e fear t*at U.S. securit8 and interestsine6itabl8 +ill be ;eopardi5ed b8 a =urasian *egemon. 3*is t*reat is easil8exaggerated, and manipulated, to disguise ulterior moti6es for U.S. militar8inter6ention in =urasia.


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Transition to m$ltipolarity #ill be stable- internationalinstit$tions ens$re0kenberry 2?11 (G.


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and t*e8 *a6e deep interests in preser6ing t*at s8stem. 7n t*e meantime,alternati6es to an open and rule-based order *a6e 8et to cr8stalli5e . =6ent*oug* t*e last decade *as broug*t remar?able up*ea6als in t*e global s8stem -- t*eemergence of ne+ po+ers, bitter disputes among Cestern allies o6er t*e UnitedStatesF unipolar ambitions, and a global 4nancial crisis and recession -- t*e liberal

international order *as no competitors. En t*e contrar8, t*e rise of non-Cesternpo+ers and t*e gro+t* of economic and securit8 interdependence arecreating ne+ constituencies for it' 3o be sure, as +ealt* and po+er become lessconcentrated in t*e United StatesF *ands, t*e countr8 +ill be less able to s*ape +orldpolitics. 9ut t*e underl8ing foundations of t*e liberal international order +ill sur6i6e andt*ri6e. 7ndeed, no+ ma8 be t*e best time for t*e United States and its democratic partnersto update t*e liberal order for a ne+ era, ensuring t*at it continues to pro6ide t*e bene4ts of securit8 and prosperit8 t*at it *as pro6ided since t*e middle of t*e t+entiet* centur8.


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il pills


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il pills – 1NC

1' and ;exico already have an agreement to increase oil

development and reven$es )or 7B;BD88C Ne#s 12 (“US and Mexico agree Gulf of Mexico oil cooperation”, 0"!"0!$",*ttp!!+++.bbc.co.u?!ne+s!+orld-latin-america-$Q$0)")J2

3*e deal +as signed at a meeting of t*e G"0 group of industrial and de6eloping countries in osabos, Mexico. K US Secretar8 of State >illar8 linton said it +ould ensure responsibleenerg8 exploration in t*e Gulf. K Mexican resident Belipe alderon said it+ould ease Mexican fears t*at t*eir oil mig*t be appropriated b8 t*e US. K 3*edeal, negotiated last 8ear, +as signed b8 Mrs linton and t*e Mexican Boreign Minister atricia =spinosa, +it*

resident alderon acting as a +itness . K 7t ends a moratorium on oil de6elopment neart*e maritime boundar8 in t*e +estern Gulf and sets up a legal frame+or? for

companies to de6elop cross-border 4elds ;ointl8.K

@3*ese reser6oirs could *old considerablereser6es t*at could bene4t t*e US and Mexico ali?e, but t*e8 donFt necessaril8 stop at our maritime boundar8. 3*iscould lead to disputes,@ Mrs linton said. K @3*e agreement +e are signing toda8 +ill *elp pre6ent suc* disputes,@

s*e added. K Mrs linton also stressed t*at it +ould allo+ US companies to +or? inpartners*ip +it* t*e Mexican state oil compan8 emex for t*e 4rst time. K So6ereign rig*tsK K resident alderon said t*e deal +ould boost MexicoFs energ8 securit8 andincrease re6enues from emex, +*ic* account for about a t*ird of go6ernment income. K @3*isagreement +as negotiated under t*e in6ariable principle of respecting t*e so6ereign rig*ts of eac* countr8 to its

natural resources,@ *e said.K @MexicoFs oil +ealt* belongs and +ill continue to belongto t*e Mexicans,@ *e stressed. K 9ot* countries aArmed t*at t*e deal +ouldalso ensure greater en6ironmental protection - a ?e8 concern after t*e *uge'eep+ater >ori5on oil spill in t*e Gulf in "0$0.

2' a)ety doesn:t solve – their impact evidence ass$mes thesa)ety the plan res$lts in @The recently signed deep#ateragreement obliges both co$ntries to #ork together and sharethe spoils o) the development o) transbo$ndary reservoirsMnthe ide& prohibition o) $ltradeep#ater drilling& enacteda)ter the !eep#ater Hori/on spill& has come and goneA – that:s1C hields #hich also makes the claim that spills are @$st#aiting to happen'A

3' ceans bo$nce back 9diversity& niches& )$nctional

red$ndancy"$ita 1511 (Rod, *.'. in Marine 9iolog8 at t*e 9oston Uni6ersit8 Marine rogram,“Managing for a Resilient Ecean”, =n6ironmental 'efense Bund, 0$!$$!$%,*ttp!!blogs.edf.org!ed4s*!"0$%!0$!$$!managing-for-a-resilient-ocean!2

Bortunatel8, science is pro6iding insig*ts into t*e factors t*at ma?e oceanecos8stems more capable of resisting t*ese ?inds of c*anges, and more ableto bo$nce back #hen they are damaged] in ot*er +ords, t*e attributest*at ma?e some s8stems more resilient t*an ot*ers. >a6ing lots of species


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+it* di:erent ecological ;obs (biodi6ersit8 and nic*es2 is 6er8 important, as is*a6ing se6eral species doing t*e same ;ob but in slig*tl8 di:erent +a8s(functional redundanc82. ots of genetic di6ersit8 +it*in species and populationsis important as +ell. 7tFs a little li?e roc?et science roc?ets are complexs8stems t*at are made more robust and resilient (i.e., less li?el8 to blo+ up2 b8

building in redundant subs8stems. ature *as done t*at one better b8 building ine6en more di6ersit8, allo+ing coral reefs for example to reco6er from*urricanes and e6en 6olcanic eruptions t*at de6astate *uman communities.

' No brink – The 87 spill proves that oceans are resilient& theirCraig evidence doesn:t say it:s the system is on the brink it

$st says it #as damaging – proves they can take it – #e capspills& and #ill get )aster each time

6' 4$l) resilient to oilTennessee Today 5. (ne+s and information for t*e U3 communit8, “rofessorPsResearc* S*o+s Gulf of Mexico Resilient &fter Spill”, 0!0)!$%,*ttp!!+++.ut?.edu!tntoda8!"0$%!0!0)!professors-researc*-s*o+s-gulf-mexico-resilient-spill2

3*e Gulf of Mexico ma8 *a6e a muc* greater natural abilit8 to self-clean oilspills t*an pre6iousl8 belie6ed , according to 3err8 >a5en, Uni6ersit8 of 3ennesseeZEa? Ridge ational aborator8 Go6ernorPs *air for =n6ironmental9iotec*nolog8.K K 3*e bioremediation expert presented *is 'eep+ater >ori5on disasterresearc* 4ndings at t*e "Tt* ational Meeting and =xposition of t*e &merican *emicalSociet8 (&S2, t*e +orldPs largest scienti4c societ8.K K >a5en conducted researc* follo+ingt*e "0$0 'eep+ater >ori5on disaster, +*ic* is estimated to *a6e spilled "$0 million gallonsof oil into t*e Gulf of Mexico. >is researc* team used a po+erful ne+ approac* foridentif8ing microbes in t*e en6ironment to disco6er pre6iousl8 un?no+n and naturall8

occurring bacteria t*at consume and brea? do+n crude oil.K K “ 3*e 'eep+ater >ori5on

oil pro6ided a ne+ source of nutrients in t*e deepest +aters ,” said >a5en.“Cit* more food present in t*e +ater, t*ere +as a population explosionamong t*ose bacteria alread8 adapted to using oil as a food source. 7t +assurprising *o+ fast t*e8 consumed t*e oil. 7n some locations, it too? onl8 oneda8 for t*em to reduce a gallon of oil to a *alf gallon. 7n ot*ers, t*e *alf-lifefor a gi6en Duantit8 of spilled oil +as six da8s.”K K 3*is data suggests t*at agreat potential for intrinsic bioremediation of oil plumes exists in t*e deepsea and ot*er en6irons in t*e Gulf of Mexico. Eil-eating bacteria are naturalin*abitants of t*e Gulf because of t*e constant suppl8 of oil as food.K K >a5enPs team used ano6el approac* for identif8ing pre6iousl8 recogni5ed ?inds of oil-eating bacteria t*atcontributed to t*e natural clean up of t*e 'eep+ater >ori5on spill. 7nstead of gro+ing t*e

microbes in a laborator8, t*e team used “ecogenomics.” 3*is approac* uses genetic andot*er anal8ses of t*e '&, proteins, and ot*er footprints of bacteria to pro6ide a moredetailed picture of microbial life in t*e +ater.K K “3*e bottom line from t*is researc* ma8 be

t*at t*e Gulf of Mexico is more resilient and better able to reco6er from oilspills t*an an8one t*oug*t,” >a5en said. “7t s*o+s t*at +e ma8 not need t*e?inds of *eroic measures proposed after t*e 'eep+ater >ori5on spill, li?eadding nutrients to speed up t*e gro+t* of bacteria t*at brea? do+n oil, orusing geneticall8 engineered bacteria. 3*e Gulf *as a broad base of natural


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bacteria , and t*e8 respond to t*e presence of oil b8 multipl8ing Duiterapidl8.”

,' BmpiricsN7R > ('onald ( 'onald


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clear is t*at arti4ciall8 enforcing rigid biodi6ersit8 +or?s against t*e la+s ofnature, and +ill cause irreparable damage to t*e e6olution of life on t*isplanet and ma8be be8ond. 3*e +orld and t*e *uman species ma8 be better ser6ed if +e stop tr8ing topre6ent c*ange, and begin tr8ing to understand c*ange and positioning t*e *uman species to t*at it sur6i6es t*e

ine6itable c*ange of e6olution. 7f *istor8 is to be belie6ed, t*e planet *as % times morebiodi6ersit8 t*an it *ad JT million 8ears ago. 3r8ing to sustain t*at le6el isfutile and ma8 be dangerous. 3*e next ma;or extinction, c*ange in biodi6ersit8, is asine6itable as climate c*ange. Ce cannot stop eit*er from occurring, but +e canposition t*e *uman species to sur6i6e t*ose c*anges.

.' No extinction=asterbroo?, 0% senior fello+ at t*e e+ Republic, 0% L“CeFre &ll Gonna 'ie`”,*ttp!!+++.+ired.com!+ired!arc*i6e!$$.0Q!doomsda8.*tml_pg$topictopicset N

7f +eFre tal?ing about doomsda8 - t*e end of *uman ci6ili5ation - man8 scenarios simpl8 donFtmeasure up. & single nuclear bomb ignited b8 terrorists, for example, +ould be a+ful be8ond +ords, but life+ould go on. eople and mac*ines mig*t con6erge in +a8s t*at 8ou and 7 +ould 4nd g*astl8, but from t*e

standpoint of t*e future, t*e8 +ould probabl8 represent an adaptation. =n6ironmental collapse mig*t ma?e

parts of t*e globe unpleasant, but considering t*at t*e biosp*ere *as sur6i6ed ice ages, it#o$ldnEt be the %nal c$rtain. 'epression, +*ic* *as become $0 times more pre6alent in Cesternnations in t*e post+ar era, mig*t gro+ so +idespread t*at 6ast numbers of people +ould refuse to get out of bed, apossibilit8 t*at etrane? suggested in a doomsda8 tal? at t*e 3ec*nolog8 =ntertainment 'esign conference in "00".9ut Marcel roust, as miserable as *e +as, +rote Remembrance of 3*ings ast +*ile l8ing in bed.

J' They don:t access t$rtles - empEs Ridley t$rtles are themost endangered pop$lation in the ocean& not the key andmain type – other sea t$rtles solve – they only nest on a singlebeach – no reason #e co$ldn:t $st )oc$s e*orts and p$t a tarpover that beach

1?' Ko$r a$thors are paid o* and don:t $se good data – oceansare resilientRidley& 1? (Matt, *', Ioolog8, 6isiting professor at old Spring >arbor aborator8,


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s*ared b8 46e scientists +*ose researc* grants depend on funding agencies beingpersuaded t*at t*ere +ill be a se6ere and rapid impact of carbon dioxide emissions on coralreefs in coming decades. 7 merel8 report accuratel8 t*at t*e latest empirical and t*eoretical researc*suggests t*at t*e li?el8 impact *as been exaggerated.

11' Re-speciation #ill rapidly %ll in the vac$$m

Mc1inne8 #), Mic*ael . Mc1inne8, $##), 9iodi6ersit8 '8namics ic*e reemption andSaturation in 'i6ersit8 =Duilibria, 9iodi6ersit8 '8namics 3urno6er of opulations, 3axa, andommunities, *apter $, Mic*ael . Mc1inne8 and


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DTN 1' !eal no#

1nc 1 pemex deal already exists no# – it #as signed by HillaryClinton and ens$res responsible exploration in the g$l) – the

;exican president himsel) said that it eases the potential risko) oil ind$stry collapse& boosts ;exican energy sec$rity& andprotects the environment – that:s 88C 12

This solves the case beca$se it means there:s ade($atein)rastr$ct$re )or a sa)ety agreement no# – all their evidenceand arg$ments abo$t sa)ety say there:s incentive on bothsides and this proves #e:re at least moving to#ards it already– they can:t isolate a time)rame )or an oil spill #hich meansthere:s literally no de%cit to the stat$s ($o – no ne# 1arans#ers they )ramed their a* like this

No barrier to the helping mexico – #e have the tech'ic? lario is c*airman, president and =E of >ouston-based 1e8 =nerg8 Ser6ices 7nc. andc*airman of t*e ational Ecean 7ndustries &ssociation, QZ$J-"0$% “3ime to remo6eroadbloc?s to o:s*ore energ8 production”,*ttp!!+++.c*ron.com!opinion!outloo?!article!3ime-to-remo6e-roadbloc?s-to-o:s*ore-energ8-JJ))%%.p*p, sb*ag

3*an?s to tec*nolog8, energ8 companies can no+ safel8 and cost-e:ecti6el8reco6er domestic oil and natural gas from s*ale ons*ore and from deepreser6oirs o:s*ore. 3*e industr8 *as become a ;obs mac*ine 7tFs one of a *andful ofsectors t*at sa+ double-digit percent ;ob gro+t* bet+een "0$0 and "0$", according to an

anal8sis b8 areer9uilder. &dd t*e indirect ;obs from t*e U.S. energ8 boom, andt*e number of ne+ ;obs rises +ell into t*e *undreds of t*ousands. 3appinguncon6entional energ8 on land is dri6ing muc* of t*is remar?able gro+t*, butt*ere is tremendous potential to increase energ8 production o: our nationFs s*ores as +ell -from oil, gas and +ind - in t*e Euter ontinental S*elf. Unfortunatel8, t*e federalgo6ernment *as placed )Q percent of t*e outer s*elf o: t*e table to oil and gas exploration.

http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Time-to-remove-roadblocks-to-offshore-energy-4668833.phphttp://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Time-to-remove-roadblocks-to-offshore-energy-4668833.phphttp://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Time-to-remove-roadblocks-to-offshore-energy-4668833.phphttp://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Time-to-remove-roadblocks-to-offshore-energy-4668833.php


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DTN 3' ceans bo$nce back

1nc 3 – oceans are comparatively more able to bo$nce back#hen they are damaged – they are more resilient than people

expect – oceans are extremely diverse b$t the niches are lessn$mero$s than the n$mber o) species – )$nctional red$ndancychecks back their impacts beca$se other animals can %ll in –)or example& other t$rtles can %ll in the niches o) the kemporidley t$rtles"$ita 1511 (Rod, *.'. in Marine 9iolog8 at t*e 9oston Uni6ersit8 Marine rogram,“Managing for a Resilient Ecean”, =n6ironmental 'efense Bund, 0$!$$!$%,*ttp!!blogs.edf.org!ed4s*!"0$%!0$!$$!managing-for-a-resilient-ocean!2


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DTN 6' 4$l) resilientG

The g$l) speci%cally is resilient – that:s 1nc 6& Tennessee Todayevidence – it can nat$raly clean itsel) against oil spills&

according to ak Ridge National Laboratory 4overnor:s Chair)or Bnvironmental 8iotechnology' The !eep#ater spill #as astrong empirical example – deep #ater plants act$ally $sed theoil as n$trients& spa#ning a pop$lation explosion o) oilcons$ming bacteria& #hich checked the oil be)ore it did toom$ch damage –Eur e6idence literall8 describes it li?e one of t*ose sp8 mo6ies +*ere t*e nanotec* eatse6er8t*ing faster t*an an8one expects

Ko$ sho$ld pre)er o$r evidence – not only does it come )rom anextremely ($ali%ed a$thor& b$t it cites hard n$mbers – that:s

the most obective #ay to look at it

$r evidence ass$mes a* evidence& not the other #ay aro$nd –their evidence is spec$lative o) damage b$t they #ill NT beable to read evidence that the damage )rom an oil spill is;RB dangero$s than people think it is& #hereas o$r articlesays that& in speci%c& @the g$l) o) mexico is more resilient andbetter able to recover )rom oil spills than NKNB tho$ghtA –that:s a ($ote – i) they can:t read evidence on the bacteria thateats oil& they lose this impactTennessee Today 5. (ne+s and information for t*e U3 communit8, “rofessorPsResearc* S*o+s Gulf of Mexico Resilient &fter Spill”, 0!0)!$%,*ttp!!+++.ut?.edu!tntoda8!"0$%!0!0)!professors-researc*-s*o+s-gulf-mexico-resilient-spill2


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DTN ,' BmpiricsG

56P o) it:s existence and at leasttimes in the past biodiversity backslid rapidly – i) they can:tans#er all 1? o) these examples& incl$ding an instance 26?million year ao #here the n$mber o) genera #as red$ce .6percent& killing literally all b$t 16 percent o) the pop$lation&they can:t #in – that:s the N7R& or national paci%c research&evidence


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DTN .' No extinction

1nc . – there:s no extinction – #e:ve s$rvived ice ages #hereJ?P o) the biosphere today didn:t exist – no #ay it escalations

to extinction& #hich means yo$ sho$ld pre)er o$r scenario )orn$clear #ar beca$se that is $ni($ely irreversible – that:sBasterbrook& ?3


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DTN 11' Re-speciation #ill rapidly %ll in the vac$$m

1nc 11 – rapid respeciation solves – #hen a nich is empty a ne#pop$lation has less press$re so it can expand it:s pop$lation

and %ll that niche beca$se there:s less compeititon – thenthere:s no longer a crisis and more diversity starts to develop –that being said& a crisis doesn:t c$ase extinction it $st leavesmore room )or a ne# species – that:s mckinney J.


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DTN 12' thereEs no impact

1nc 12 – specie die o* doesn:t matter – even conversavtionbiologists admit to being alarmist – the extremely #ide

reaching consens$s is that there is no evidence )or spill overdeaths or reasons that temporary loss o) a niche %llercollapses an environment –that:s simon J.

Mexico Hydrocarbons Negative - DDI 2013 AC

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Transcript of Mexico Hydrocarbons Negative - DDI 2013 AC