Metals Weekly Tracker, 10Mar2014

Adamson Associates

•China risks affect base metal basket •Copper under threat from structural unwinding of financing •Gold and Platinum benefit from Ukrainian tension •Most metals still too high for yearly target

11Mar2014 | Commodities Weekly, Metals

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Platinum and Gold benefit from Ukrainian risks; Zinc continue to ride on healthy fundamentals; Iron Ore hit hard by weak China demand and stockpiling

Metals: Valuation Benchmark

Adamson

-1%

-5%

1%

-6%

-5%

7%

-2%

-9%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8% %over/ Year-end Avg

undervaluation price forecast Current price

Gold -1% 1141 1341

Silver -5% 1537 2094

Platinum 1% 1352 1482

Aluminium -6% 1630 1730

Copper -5% 6536 6931

Zinc 7% 190 209

Lead -2% 205 208

Iron Ore -9% 118 121

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US employment picture gets better, cold weather cuts into production slightly, Fed QE unwinding still in place; USD gains

Dollar Index: USD

Adamson

79

79

79

80

80

80

80

80

81

81

81

Fe

b 0

9, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

0, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

1, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

2, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

3, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

4, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

6, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

7, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

8, 2

01

4

Fe

b 1

9, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

0, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

1, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

3, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

4, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

5, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

6, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

7, 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

8, 2

01

4

Ma

r 02

, 20

14

Ma

r 03

, 20

14

Ma

r 04

, 20

14

Ma

r 05

, 20

14

Ma

r 06

, 20

14

Ma

r 07

, 20

14

Ma

r 09

, 20

14

Ma

r 10

, 20

14

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Transcript Aluminium

• The first corporate bond default was coupled by surprising trade deficit in China, base metals and minerals prices hit; aluminium fundamentals do not help; solid contango

• Destocking driven by production cuts in Ex China undermined by China production gains; LME destocking pauses; open interests gains reflecting shorts

• Prices are better in March comparing to the previous month, however, still at very undervalued levels; Aluminium current pricing still too high for yearly target

• SHFE AL pricing fell sharply with no sign of picking up by weekend, reflecting strong bearish sentiments surrounding fate of economy and financing deals

• The supply tightness in an inverse forward curve has disappeared, turning into a normal contango; restocking has started, signalling re-emerging pressure on soft demand

Copper

• The biggest copper consumer – China, having its shadow financing sector curbed, means less demand for copper financing deals, discouraging pricing; LME supply tightness

• While destocking continues, it is happening at a slower pace, there are demand side concerns; open interests fell, reflecting long liquidation

• Undervaluation worsens for copper in March, the combo of bad news from China means the metal will remain depressed in the short term; pricing still too high for target

• SHFE copper pricing collapses similar to LME, capturing the correlating factors that are originating from China

• Forward curves show a slight contango; there is a slight degree of tightness in near-dated contracts; restocking starts to gain momentum, demand brought into question

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Cont. Zinc

• Zinc’s rise was also affected by the latest economic developments, however, at a lesser degree than other base metals; there is supply tightness in near-dated contracts

• Zinc has seen its stock level to pick up for the first time in a while, signalling a hit on demand for base metals; open interests gained as long liquidations entered the market

• Zinc is still overvalued, and doing much better than the rest of the basket; as a result, it exceeds its price target quite a bit, with room for fall

• SHFE Zinc has not been performing at par with LME Zinc, price mainly fluctuated and fell in the recent week

• Zinc is in a normal contango with no supply side tightness; restocking is strong for the metal in SHFE warehouses, underlying pressure from demand

Lead

• Lead performs in along a similar pattern as Zinc, price fluctuated and fell; curve is normal with no supply side tightness

• Stocks have been rising for lead on the LME, underlying some pressure for the metal; open interests gained as long liquidations occured

• Lead has become undervalued after a brief month being overvalued; the price however is within its yearly target range

• SHFE lead deteriorated in February, undermined by worries over China’s economy

• There has been little change for lead stock; the metal is in a normal forward curve

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Cont.

Gold

• Gold benefits from Ukrainian uncertainties, greater inflation and Chinese buying; seen as a safe haven, the precious metal has a rather flat near-dated curve

• Gold stocks gained somewhat over the week; open interest fell slightly, with a mixture of long liquidation and short covering

• Gold is almost at value given current pricing; its pricing however, has far exceeded its yearly target, with room for fall

Silver

• Silver has been unable to cash in on the geo-political volatilities that have been positively driving other precious metals, silver continues to perform poorly

• Inventories continue to pile up for silver; open interests fell as long liquidation dominated

• Silver has been recovering from its massive undervaluation; its current pricing is however too high for its yearly target

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Cont.

Platinum

• Platinum has been a beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian tension, being the largest supplier of the precious metal, volatilities have been driving prices up

• Inventories reduced slightly over the week; open interests gained as shorts drove prices down

• Platinum is slightly undervalued at its current level; it is also still higher than its yearly target range

Additional Data

• Steel prices continued to fall, dragging Iron Ore and the Aussie Dollar

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Aluminium

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The first corporate bond default was coupled by surprising trade deficit in China, base metals and minerals prices hit; aluminium fundamentals do not help; solid contango

Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD/t

Source: LME, Adamson

1729.5

1771

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

Spot 3M

Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t)


1729.5

1771

1918

1987

2053

1641.5

1686.5

1848

1925

2000

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

7/03/2014 4/02/2014

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Destocking driven by production cuts in Ex China undermined by China production gains; LME destocking pauses; open interests gains reflecting shorts

Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots


729,806

749,306

774,645

806444

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

Aluminium: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T


5293200

2498925

2250000

2300000

2350000

2400000

2450000

2500000

2550000

5150000

5200000

5250000

5300000

5350000

5400000

5450000

5500000

5550000

Stocks Cancelled Warrants

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Prices are better in March comparing to the previous month, however, still at very undervalued levels; Aluminium current pricing still too high for yearly target

Aluminium: Valuation benchmark

Adamson

-58

-47

-78 -82

-204 -201

-239

-110 -108

-132

-63

-192

-109

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Aluminium: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

1561

1630

1668

1,500

1,520

1,540

1,560

1,580

1,600

1,620

1,640

1,660

1,680

Conservative Avg Less Conservative

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SHFE AL pricing fell sharply with no sign of picking up by weekend, reflecting strong bearish sentiments surrounding fate of economy and financing deals

SHFE Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, RMB

Source: SHFE, Adamson

13070

13230

12,700

12,800

12,900

13,000

13,100

13,200

13,300

13,400

13,500

13,600

13,700

Spot 3M

Aluminium: Spot and 3M Price, USD


1729.5

1771

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

Spot 3M

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The supply tightness in an inverse forward curve has disappeared, turning into a normal contango; restocking has started, signalling re-emerging pressure on soft demand

SHFE Aluminium: Stock, T


309654

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

SHFE Aluminium: Futures Curve (USD/t)


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12,600

12,800

13,000

13,200

13,400

13,600

13,800

14,000

14,200

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

7-Mar-14 10-Jan-14


Copper

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The biggest copper consumer – China, having its shadow financing sector curbed, means less demand for copper financing deals, discouraging pricing; LME supply tightness

Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD


6931

6915.5

6,750

6,800

6,850

6,900

6,950

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

7,200

7,250

Spot 3M

Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t)


7107

7060

7000

6975

6950

6930.5

6915.5

6895

6880 6870

6,750

6,800

6,850

6,900

6,950

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

4/02/2014 7/03/2014

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While destocking continues, it is happening at a slower pace, there are demand side concerns; open interests fell, reflecting long liquidation

Copper: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T


Copper: Open Interest, Lots


256,412

258,687

268,946

262435

250,000

252,000

254,000

256,000

258,000

260,000

262,000

264,000

266,000

268,000

270,000

269000

134450

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000


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Undervaluation worsens for copper in March, the combo of bad news from China means the metal will remain depressed in the short term; pricing still too high for target

Copper: Valuation benchmark

Adamson

-173

-327 -316

-504

-875

-747 -731

-372

-248 -216

143

-326 -339

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Copper: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

6268

6536

6687

6,000

6,100

6,200

6,300

6,400

6,500

6,600

6,700

6,800


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SHFE copper pricing collapses similar to LME, capturing the correlating factors that are originating from China

SHFE Copper: Spot and 3M Price, RMB


48840

48920

47,000

47,500

48,000

48,500

49,000

49,500

50,000

50,500

51,000

51,500

Spot 3M

Copper: Spot and 3M Price, USD


6931 6915.5

6,750

6,800

6,850

6,900

6,950

7,000

7,050

7,100

7,150

7,200

7,250

Spot 3M

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Forward curves show a slight contango; there is a slight degree of tightness in near-dated contracts; restocking starts to gain momentum, demand brought into question

SHFE Copper: Futures Curve (USD/t)


47,500

48,000

48,500

49,000

49,500

50,000

50,500

51,000

51,500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14

SHFE Copper: Stock, T


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

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Zinc

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Zinc’s rise was also affected by the latest economic developments, however, at a lesser degree than other base metals; there is supply tightness in near-dated contracts

Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD


2094.5

2067.5

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

Spot 3M

Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t)


1965 1965

2018

2038 2033

2094.5

2067.5

2103 2108

2103

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

4/02/2014 7/03/2014

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Zinc has seen its stock level to pick up for the first time in a while, signalling a hit on demand for base metals; open interests gained as long liquidations entered the market

Zinc: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T


Zinc: Open Interest, Lots


292,563

287,378

296,121

319372

270,000

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

776000

166450

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000


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Zinc is still overvalued, and doing much better than the rest of the basket; as a result, it exceeds its price target quite a bit, with room for fall

Zinc: Valuation benchmark

Adamson

-1.3 -2.3

-5.7

-4.0

-13.5 -13.2

-17.8

-7.0

-2.8

3.6

16.0

6.0

13.9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Zinc: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

182

190

194

176

178

180

182

184

186

188

190

192

194

196


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SHFE Zinc has not been performing at par with LME Zinc, price mainly fluctuated and fell in the recent week

SHFE Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, RMB


14990

15170

14,700

14,800

14,900

15,000

15,100

15,200

15,300

15,400

Spot 3M

Zinc: Spot and 3M Price, USD


2094.5

2067.5

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

2,200

Spot 3M

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Zinc is in a normal contango with no supply side tightness; restocking is strong for the metal in SHFE warehouses, underlying pressure from demand

SHFE Zinc: Futures Curve (USD/t)


14,600

14,700

14,800

14,900

15,000

15,100

15,200

15,300

15,400

15,500

15,600

15,700

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14

SHFE Zinc: Stock, T


269802

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

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Lead

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Lead performs in along a similar pattern as Zinc, price fluctuated and fell; curve is normal with no supply side tightness

Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD


2084.5

2112

2,020

2,040

2,060

2,080

2,100

2,120

2,140

2,160

2,180

2,200

Spot 3M

Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t)


2091.5

2110

2148

2168 2172

2084.5

2112

2155

2173 2177

2,020

2,040

2,060

2,080

2,100

2,120

2,140

2,160

2,180

2,200

4/02/2014 7/03/2014

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Stocks have been rising for lead on the LME, underlying some pressure for the metal; open interests gained as long liquidations occured

Lead: Stock and Cancelled Warrants, T


Lead: Open Interest, Lots


114,350

121,129

125,167

134348

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

203975

32900

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

190000

195000

200000

205000

210000

215000

220000


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Lead has become undervalued after a brief month being overvalued; the price however is within its yearly target range

Lead: Valuation benchmark

Adamson

6.8

-2.1

-3.6

1.8

-14.5

-9.5

-18.5

-8.1

-4.0 -3.2

5.4

-6.9

-5.1

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Lead: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

198

205

210

190

192

194

196

198

200

202

204

206

208

210

212


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SHFE lead deteriorated in February, undermined by worries over China’s economy

SHFE Lead: Spot and 3M Price, RMB


13700

13875

13,400

13,500

13,600

13,700

13,800

13,900

14,000

14,100

14,200

Spot 3M

Lead: Spot and 3M Price, USD


2084.5

2112

2,020

2,040

2,060

2,080

2,100

2,120

2,140

2,160

2,180

2,200

Spot 3M

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There has been little change for lead stock; the metal is in a normal forward curve

SHFE Lead: Futures Curve (USD/t)


13,200

13,400

13,600

13,800

14,000

14,200

14,400

14,600

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

7-Mar-14 27-Jan-14

SHFE Lead: Stock, T


84312

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

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Gold

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Gold benefits from Ukrainian uncertainties, greater inflation and Chinese buying; seen as a safe haven, the precious metal has a rather flat near-dated curve

Gold: Spot Price, USD

Source: CME, Adamson

1341.1

1,290

1,300

1,310

1,320

1,330

1,340

1,350

1,360

Spot

Gold: Futures Curve (USD/oz)


1,336

1,338

1,340

1,342

1,344

1,346

1,348

1,350

1,352

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-1

4

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Sep-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan-1

6

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Gold stocks gained somewhat over the week; open interest fell slightly, with a mixture of long liquidation and short covering

Gold: Inventories, Troy ounce


Gold: Open interest, futures positions


383,021

415,426

410,959

382,739

368,279

376,973

390,535

387,503

340,000

350,000

360,000

370,000

380,000

390,000

400,000

410,000

420,000

7,777,823 7,809,244

7,463,277

7,141,392 7,143,618 7,177,094

6,800,000

7,000,000

7,200,000

7,400,000

7,600,000

7,800,000

8,000,000

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Gold is almost at value given current pricing; its pricing however, has far exceeded its yearly target, with room for fall

Gold: Valuation Benchmark

Adamson

-54

-115

-186

-231

-322

-265

-240

-193

-161

-204

-111

-64

-14

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Gold: Current Year Model Outlook

Adamson

1094

1141

1168

1,040

1,060

1,080

1,100

1,120

1,140

1,160

1,180


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Silver

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Silver has been unable to cash in on the geo-political volatilities that have been positively driving other precious metals, silver continues to perform poorly

Silver: Spot Price, USD


20.875

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

Spot

Silver: Futures Curve (USD/oz)


20.20

20.40

20.60

20.80

21.00

21.20

21.40

21.60

21.80

22.00

22.20

Ma

r-14

Apr-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Sep-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan-1

6

Jul-1

6

Dec-1

6

Jul-1

7

Dec-1

7

Jul-1

8

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Inventories continue to pile up for silver; open interests fell as long liquidation dominated

Silver: Inventories, Troy ounce


Silver: Open interest, futures positions


131,294

136,158

139,468

144,244

149,163

147,988 147,035

144,305

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

176,502,272

177,109,451

178,499,380

179,408,695

181,755,486

182,830,730

173,000,000

174,000,000

175,000,000

176,000,000

177,000,000

178,000,000

179,000,000

180,000,000

181,000,000

182,000,000

183,000,000

184,000,000

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Silver has been recovering from its massive undervaluation; its current pricing is however too high for its yearly target

Silver: Valuation Benchmark

Adamson

-157

-392

-598

-725

-912

-698

-548

-438

-385 -4

57

-263

-156

-104

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Silver: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

1447

1537

1587

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600


Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



Platinum

Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

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Platinum has been a beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian tension, being the largest supplier of the precious metal, volatilities have been driving prices up

Platinum: Spot Price, USD


1476

1,320

1,340

1,360

1,380

1,400

1,420

1,440

1,460

1,480

1,500

Spot

Platinum: Futures Curve (USD/t)


1,474

1,475

1,476

1,477

1,478

1,479

1,480

1,481

1,482

1,483

Ma

r-14

Apr-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

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Inventories reduced slightly over the week; open interests gained as shorts drove prices down

Platinum: Inventories, Troy ounce


Platinum: Open interest, futures positions


59,561

58,636

60,358

60,923

61,388

63,300 63,376

64,653

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

61,000

62,000

63,000

64,000

65,000

66,000 250,568 250,518

250,216

245,469

249,568

249,260

242,000

243,000

244,000

245,000

246,000

247,000

248,000

249,000

250,000

251,000

Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



Platinum is slightly undervalued at its current level; it is also still higher than its yearly target range

Platinum: Valuation benchmark

Adamson

35

-9

-42

-80

-181

-131

-163

-133

-68

-152

-21

-56

10

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

2013M

03

2013M

04

2013M

05

2013M

06

2013M

07

2013M

08

2013M

09

2013M

10

2013M

11

2013M

12

2014M

01

2014M

02

2014M

03

Platinum: Current Year Model Fundamental

Adamson

1292

1352

1385

1,240

1,260

1,280

1,300

1,320

1,340

1,360

1,380

1,400


Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



Additional Data

Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

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Steel prices continued to fall, dragging Iron Ore and the Aussie Dollar

SHFE Steel Rebar: Spot and 3M Price, RMB


3,100

3,150

3,200

3,250

3,300

3,350

3,400

3,450

3,500

3,550

Spot 3M

SHFE Steel Wire: Spot and 3M Price, RMB


3,150

3,200

3,250

3,300

3,350

3,400

3,450

3,500

3,550

Spot 3M

Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



SHFE Aluminium: Open Interest, Lots


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

SHFE Copper: Open Interest, Lots


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000 Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



SHFE Zinc: Open Interest, Lots


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

SHFE Gold: Open Interest, Lots


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000 Wee

kly

Met

als

Trac

ker



DISCLAIMER This publication is produced by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, and distributed by Adamson Associates Limited and/or its affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein.

This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying,

printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Adamson Associates Limited nor any of its respective parent, holding,

subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of

other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication,

nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be constructed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor,

unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of

Adamson Associates Limited, and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied

upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment

objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person.

Metals Weekly Tracker, 10Mar2014

Business

Transcript of Metals Weekly Tracker, 10Mar2014