MELIORA CAPITAL MLP SECTOR REVIEW HOSTED BY … · MELIORA CAPITAL Meliora Capital is a boutique...

22
MELIORA CAPITAL MLP SECTOR REVIEW HOSTED BY COMMERCE BANK April 8, 2016 www.melcapital.com

Transcript of MELIORA CAPITAL MLP SECTOR REVIEW HOSTED BY … · MELIORA CAPITAL Meliora Capital is a boutique...

  • MELIORA CAPITALMLP SECTOR REVIEW

    HOSTED BY COMMERCE BANKApril 8, 2016

    www.melcapital.com

  • DISCLAIMERMeliora Capital, its officers and employees may have an interest in some or all of the securitiesmentioned herein. The information set forth herein has been derived from sources believed to bereliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be a complete analysis ofthe securities, companies, or industries involved. In addition, many of the statements made hereinare opinions based on available information and cannot be guaranteed or construed as fact.

    The information presented herein is provided for discussion purposes only and may not bereproduced. No offering of interests in Meliora Capital or any affiliated entities is made or implied asa result of the circulation hereof. The discussion herein is qualified in its entirety by reference to thedetailed information, including the substantial risks associated with investments.

    The historical return data for investments set forth herein is for informational purposes only. It shouldnot be construed as representative of the returns that may be achieved in the future. There is noguarantee that any of the projections set forth herein will be obtained. Opinions and estimates setforth herein involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid and may be changedwithout notice. The projections and forward-looking statements included herein are subject to risks,uncertainties and assumptions. Some important factors that could cause actual results to differmaterially from those in any forward-looking statement include the following: changes in interestrates and financial, market, economic or legal conditions, among others.

    2

  • MELIORA CAPITALMeliora Capital is a boutique investment management firm. We believe thatrigorous analysis and active portfolio management combined with excellentclient service will help our clients and firm succeed and grow.

    Meliora {MEH-lee-OR-a} – 1) The pursuit of better. 2) To make better. 3) To Improve.

    Meliora is not just a name, but an ethos for how we intend to run our businessand manage client capital. Never be satisfied. Always try to improve. It alsorepresents our promise to the clients we are honored to serve. Much like doctorsor attorneys, we think of our firm as a “practice.”MLP StrategyMeliora possesses a unique expertise and approach in the MLP sector.Multi-Cap Value StrategyFocused domestic stock strategy with flexibility to invest in most attractive areas.Truly a “multi-cap” strategy as the strategy currently owns companies currentlyranging from a micro-cap bank based in Defiance, OH to Apple, Inc.

    3

  • WHAT MAKES AN MLP AN MLP?Being an energy producer?...No.

    Operating a pipeline?...No.

    Paying out the majority of quarterly cash flows?...No.

    Generating 90% qualifying Income?...Yes.

    Qualifying Income - income and gains derived from the exploration,development, mining or production, processing, refining, transportation orthe marketing of any Mineral or Natural Resource...

    as well as certain passive-type income including interest, dividends and realproperty rents.

    Traditional MLPs – Midstream Energy (Meliora’s Focus Area)

    Non-Traditional MLPs – Cemeteries, Amusement Parks, Fertilizer, etc.

    4

  • INVESTMENT & TAX ATTRIBUTES OF MLPS

    Partnership units are publicly traded just like shares of stock

    Pass-through structure offers single layer of taxation – The Key Advantage

    Unitholders receive a K-1 for each MLP held during a tax year

    Most MLPs pay out the majority of generated cash flows each quarter Tax shield provided by non-cash depreciation expense

    70%-90% of cash distributions in early years are often tax deferred

    Tax Complexity Potential need to file state tax returns

    Passive losses held in suspense

    Depreciation recapture upon sale

    UBTI complicates ownership in IRAs and other tax exempt entities

    Estate Planning Benefits of Holding Until Death (Basis Step-Up)

    5

  • WAYS TO OWN MLPS

    6

    Passive Strategies Active StrategiesExchange

    TradedNote

    Exchange Traded Fund

    Closed-End Mutual Fund

    Open-End Mutual Fund

    Limited Partnership

    Fund

    Separate Account

    Liquidity Daily Daily Daily Daily Typically Quarterly

    Daily

    Tax Reporting

    1099 1099 1099 1099 Consolidated K-1

    Multiple K-1s

    Investment Tax Status

    Taxable Note

    Taxable C-Corp

    Taxable C-Corp

    Taxable C-Corp

    Partnership Tax Status

    Partnership Tax Status

    Additional Corporate Level Tax Drag

    No Yes Yes Yes No No

    Taxation of Distributions

    Interest Income

    Largely Return of Capital

    Largely Return of Capital

    Largely Return of Capital

    Largely Return of Capital

    Largely Return of Capital

    Generates UBTI

    No No No No Yes Yes

    Bank Credit Risk

    Yes No No No No No

  • PASSIVE VS ACTIVE Passive management is predicated upon markets being close to

    fully efficient. The friction created by the investment and tax attributes of MLPs makes

    them difficult to passively replicate.

    7

    ETF/Index 2015 Return 9/30/10 – 12/31/15Alerian MLP ETF (25.7%) 9.5%Alerian Infrastructure Index (31.7%) 26.4%

    ETF/Index 2015 Return 9/30/10 – 12/31/15S&P 500 ETF 1.3% 99.0%S&P 500 Index 1.4% 100.1%

    Index replication via individual ownership would result in 25-30 K1s annually

  • CURRENT ENVIRONMENT

  • “Why the MLP Business Model May Be a Goner”

    Barrons – September 2015

    9

    “MLP Pain May Not Be Done, With Oil Hopes Still Too High”

    Bloomberg – January 2016

    “Turns Out MLPs Aren’t Immune to the Oil Market”

    Bloomberg – February 2016

  • 10

    ALERIAN MLP INDEX VS. S&P 500

    Superior Long-Term Performance…12/31/95 – 3/31/16

    Index Total Return AnnualizedAlerian MLP Index 957.7% 12.3%S&P 500 Index 388.0% 8.1%

    Source: Bloomberg

    Until Recently!9/30/14 – 3/31/16

    Index Total Return AnnualizedAlerian MLP Index -43.3% -31.5%S&P 500 Index 7.8% 5.1%

    Source: Bloomberg

  • GREATEST STRENGTH OF MIDSTREAM MLPS LEADS DIRECTLY TO THEIR ACHILLES HEEL

    MLPs depend on cooperative capital markets to fund incremental growth capital projects and to refinance maturing debt

    11

    Cash Flow Stability

    Ability to Pay Out Most Cash

    Flow

    Dependence on External

    Capital Markets

    $-

    $2,000,000,000

    $4,000,000,000

    $6,000,000,000

    $8,000,000,000

    $10,000,000,000

    $12,000,000,000

    Pipeline - High Yield Issuance - Trailing 4 Qtrs

    Chart Data: Bloomberg

  • THE TIDE HAS GONE OUT

    Challenged midstream business fundamentals Midstream is bearing its share of the entire energy value chain’s stress

    Macro level volumes in decline

    Margins pressured due to over-capacity

    Counter-party risk uncertainty

    Financial markets responding to fundamentals and magnifying problems at times Feedback Loops

    Lower unit prices = higher cost of capital

    Higher cost of capital = less accretion for growth projects

    Less accretion for growth projects = lower distribution growth

    Lower distribution growth = further reduced unit prices

    Even lower unit prices = distribution sustainability?

    12

  • 13IT’S NOT THE STRUCTURE, IT’S HOW YOU USE IT

    IS THE MLP STRUCTURE FLAWED?

  • 14

    5 KEY ATTRIBUTES TO MLP SUSTAINABILITY

    Market Power

    Asset quality

    Competitive environment

    Cash Flow Stability

    Commodity price exposure

    Contract terms/tenor

    Scale/Diversity

    Operational flexibility

    Balance Sheet

    Debt/EBITDA

    Distribution Coverage

    Distributable CF/

    Distributions Paid

    EMES, HCLP(Frac Sand)

    LINE, BBEP, VNR(Upstream)

    AZUR, SXE(Small G&P) KMI, CEQP KMI

    Examples of MLPs under financial distress (distribution cuts, restructurings)

  • In recent years, a large wave of management teams and their all too obliging investment bankers “went rafting” with fresh IPO capital from yield-hungry investors. This included a historic amount of non-traditional MLPs, many lacking in market power,

    scale and cash flow stability (e.g. frac sand, refiners, petchem, minerals and shipping) in the 3 years ended June 30, 2015:

    15

    MLP Type # of IPOs IPO Proceeds ($ mil) Avg Offering Size ($ mil) Avg Price Chg to Date

    Non-Traditional 23 $5,519 $240 -24.0%Traditional 25 $11,338 $450 -3.9%

    More seasoned MLPs also found themselves in a tight spot as they struggled to keep pace with infrastructure needs from rapidly growing domestic hydrocarbon production.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Source: Credit Suisse

    The resulting capital strain pressured distribution coverage and leverage in many cases.

  • MIDSTREAM MLPS ARE RESILIENT

    The post-Thanksgiving 2014 (OPEC non-cut) world has put remarkable stress on U.S. Energy Cash flows are stressed, common equity is uneconomic & bond markets are fractious at best

    We’ve seen this play out before the last time capital markets seized up, in 2008-09

    MLPs and their management teams continue to demonstrate financial flexibility & creativity Creative Financing Solutions

    Preferred EquityPlains All American – Raised $1.6 bil in 8% PIK Preferred when common equity yielded 12.8% Targa Resources – Raised $1.0 bil in 9.5% Preferred (with warrants) when common equity yielded 15.8%

    Asset SalesNGL Energy Partners – Sold GP of Transmontaigne for $350 mil., and increased EBITDA by $20 mil.

    Joint VenturesHaven’t seen much yet, but saw a lot of this in 2008-09

    Can cut distributions if necessary Bankruptcy risk for most MLPs very remote. Bonds look very cheap.

    Market power of midstream seems underappreciated at times

    16

  • IDRS: WRONGLY ACCUSED OF BEING NO GOOD, VERY BAD

    17

    Incentive Distribution Rights (IDRs) are typically presentwith the General Partners for most traditional MLPs.

    Pros: Reward management teams for maintaining and growing

    partnership distributions Great form of results-based incentive compensation

    Cons: As IDR payments grow, they can become a significant part

    of an MLP’s cost of equity. Can create a conflict of interest between GP & LP

    Source: Wells Fargo

    Tier Range LP/GP Split1st Target $0.00 $1.61 98% 2%2nd Target $1.61 $1.75 85% 15%3rd Target $1.75 $2.10 75% 25%High Splits $2.10 Thereafter 50% 50%

    Example IDR Tiering Structure

  • 18

    Vocal MLP bears of late like to cite negative free cash flow and accuse MLPs of borrowingfunds to pay their distributions This is intellectually dishonest

    Free Cash Flow (FCF) – A flawed metric to measure an MLP’s ability to fund an existingdistribution because Growth CapEx is discretionary, at least in the intermediate run. FCF = Operating Cash Flow – Capital Expenditures

    MLPs use a non-GAAP metric to measure cash available for distribution The key distinction from FCF is that CapEx is bifurcated

    Maintenance CapEx: Funds to maintain existing assets and cash flow

    Growth CapEx: Funds invested in new assets which will result in incremental cash flow DCF = EBITDA – Interest – Taxes – Maintenance CapEx

    But can’t management teams play games with “maintenance” vs. “growth” CapEx to inflateDCF? Yes, but they can’t hide for long because any cheating will show up via rising leverage ratios

    DCF > FCF WHEN ANALYZING MLPS

  • OUTLOOK

  • 20

    CURRENT VALUATIONS VS HISTORYMetric Current 10 Year Average

    Average MLP Yield 8.8% 7.1%Average Price/DCF 9.5x 11.9x

    Spread to 10 Year Tsy 7.0% 3.4%Spread to High Yield 0.4% (0.8%)

    Source: Wells Fargo, Bloomberg and Company Filings

    Commodity prices matter At the macro level, midstream MLPs need volumes to stabilize and an eventual return to growth

    would be most welcome Current commodity prices are not sufficient for volume stability

    Counterparty risk issues will continue to arise Sabine Oil & Gas Ruling Williams / Chesapeake

    More distribution cuts likely Quantity and magnitude depend on commodity price and capital markets

    Most important factor in successfully investing in any asset is almost always the price paid Our view is that current MLP valuations discount all of the above and more

  • The trauma of the last year and a half will have positive implications for long-term MLP model sustainability Markets have rewarded MLPs with lower leverage & higher coverage (e.g. EPD, MMP)

    Rest of the sector is likely to follow that path, with less focus on growth for growth’s sake

    Constrained capital markets will lower near term capex which will eventually alleviate concerns of “overbuild” and tight margins

    Feedback loops work both ways

    Recovering bond market and MLP unit prices will have a positive self-reinforcing effect

    Best cure for low prices is low prices

    21

  • CHAS CRAIG, CFA, CPAPRESIDENT

    MELIORA CAPITALP: (918) 619-6752

    [email protected] S. MAIN ST., STE. 500

    TULSA, OK 74119

    Contact

    22

    J.P. SZAFRANSKI, CFACHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

    MELIORA CAPITALP: (918) 619-6710

    [email protected] S. MAIN ST., STE. 500

    TULSA, OK 74119