May Calibration Run - Idaho Department of Water Resources · May Calibration Run Presented by Allan...
Transcript of May Calibration Run - Idaho Department of Water Resources · May Calibration Run Presented by Allan...
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May Calibration Run
Presented by Allan Wylie, IDWR
May 24, 2017
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Preliminary
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Important Changes
• Simulation period is Jan 1995 through Jan 2015
– Calibration period Jan 1998 through Jan 2015
• Only retaining observation wells with two or more
measurements– Want to lower transient predictive uncertainty
– Probably will have to relax this criteria
• Stage at Glendale Rd set at constant elevation
• Stage at Wood River Ranch set at constant elevation
• Include seepage run data on the dates of the survey
• Include gains between Heart Rock Ranch and
Stanton Crossing when it can be quantified
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than
one water level
observation within the
simulation period• 127 wells
Mean Residual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
– If fit was perfect
• Intercept = 0
• Slope = 1
• R2 = 1
• All points on the red line
¢::
-0 .!!:! QJ
-0 0 ~
Observation Wells
6500
6300
6100
5900
5700
5500
5300
5100
4900
4700
4500
y = 0.9882x + 58.509 R2 = 0.9945
4500 4700 4900 5100 5300 5500 5700 5900 6100 6300 6500
Measured {ft)
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
Mean Residual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells
4945
4940
4935
.. 4930 ~
:! 4925
4920
4915
4910
9
Jan-95 Dec-97 Dec-00 Jan-04 Jan-07 Dec-09 Dec-12 Jan-16
-+- Measured - Modelled --Modeled Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
Mea n Resi dual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 - 10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary ... QI QI ....
22 4785
4780
4775
4770
4765
4760
4755
Jan-95 Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
-•- Measured - Modell ed --Modeled Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
Mea n Resi dual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 - 10
• 10 - 30
.. ~ ~ ~
4 5000
4990
4980
4970
4960
4950
4940
Jan-95 Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
-•- Measured - Modelled --Modeled Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary
27 5555
5550
.. J 5545
5540
5535 Jan-95 Dec-97 Dec-00 Jan-04 Jan-07 Dec-09 Dec-12 Jan-16
-+- Measured - Modelled --Modeled Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary .. Ill Ill ~
6002 5710
5708
5706
5704
5702
5700
5698
5696
5694
5692
Jan-95 Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
-+- Measured - Modell ed --Modeled Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
Mean Residual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary
... QI QI ....
7009 4926
4924
4922
4920
4918
4916
4914
Jan-9S Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
-•- Measured - Modelled - Modeled Warmup
Jan-95 Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
- •- Measured - Modelled --Measured Warmup
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Observation Wells
– Wells with more than one
water level observation
within the simulation period
Mea n Resi dual (ft}
• <-30 .00
• -30 - -10 o -10 -10
• 10 - 30
.t. >30
• Wood River Cells Spring Cells
D Model Boundary .. ~ ~ ....
7007 4970
4965
4960
4955
4950
4945
4940
Jan-95 Sep-97 Jun-00 Mar-03 Dec-OS Sep-08 Jun-11 Mar-14 Nov-16
-+- Measured - Modelled - Modeled Warmup
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River Gains and Losses
• Transient Gains
– Nr Ketchum – Hailey
– Hailey – Stanton
Crossing
– Willow Creek
– Silver Cr Abv
Sportsman Access
– Silver Cr Blw
Sportsman Access
11'1 .... u
Nr Ketchum-Hailey
40
0 -+--------+--------+--------+-------t--------+-----+------------l
Jan-95 Dec-97 Dec-00 Jan-04 Jan-07 Dec-09 Dec-12 Jan-16
-•- Measured --Modelled --Modeled Warmup
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River Gains and Losses
• Transient Gains
– Nr Ketchum – Hailey
– Hailey – Stanton
Crossing
– Willow Creek
– Silver Cr Abv
Sportsman Access
– Silver Cr Blw
Sportsman Access
800
600
400
Ill 200 ....
u
0
-200
-400
Jan-95 Dec-97
Hailey-Stanton Crossing
Dec-00
-•- Measured
Jan-04
--Modell ed
Jan-07 Dec-09
--Modeled Warmup
Dec-12 Jan-16
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River Gains and Losses
• Transient Gains
– Nr Ketchum – Hailey
– Hailey – Stanton
Crossing
– Willow Creek
– Silver Cr Abv
Sportsman Access
– Silver Cr Blw
Sportsman Access
70
60
50
11'1 40 -IJ
30
20
10
0
Jan-95 Dec-97 Dec-00
-•- Measured
Willow Cr
Jan-07 Dec-09 Jan-04
--Modell ed --Modeled Warmup
•
Dec-12 Jan-16
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River Gains and Losses
• Transient Gains
– Nr Ketchum – Hailey
– Hailey – Stanton
Crossing
– Willow Creek
– Silver Cr Abv
Sportsman Access
– Silver Cr Blw
Sportsman Access
300
250
200
11'1 150 -IJ
100
50
0
Jan-95 Dec-97
Silver Cr Above Sportsman
Dec-00
-•- Measured
Jan-04
--Modell ed
Jan-07 Dec-09
--Modeled Warmup
Dec-12 Jan-16
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River Gains and Losses
• Transient Gains
– Nr Ketchum – Hailey
– Hailey – Stanton
Crossing
– Willow Creek
– Silver Cr Abv
Sportsman Access
– Silver Cr Blw
Sportsman Access
Ill .... u
Silver Cr Below Sportsman s ~----~-----~----~-----~----~-----~----~
3 --+-----------+---------+---------+-------+---------+-------+-------------<
1 --+---------+------+---------+-------+--------+-------+------------<
~ - - - - - - - - - - - - ~ --1 -+-------+------+-------+------+--------+------+------------i
-3 --+-----------+---------+---------+-------+--------+-------+------------<
-5 -+-------+------+-------+------+--------+------+------------i
Jan-95 Dec-97 Dec-00 Jan-04 Jan-07 Dec-09 Dec-12 Jan-16
-t-Measured -Modelled - Modeled Warmup
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River Gains and Losses
• Heart Rock Ranch –
Stanton CrossingLegend
• USGS gages
SpringCells
• Silver Cr Abv
• Willow Creek
WoodRiverCells
N
A
80
70
60
50
~ 40 u
-0 ~ 30 Q)
-0 0 2 20
10
0
-10
-20
Heart Rock R to Stanton X y = 0.5237x - 3.8201 R2 = 0.6428
: ....... .. . • • • • • •
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Observed cfs
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Seepage Runs
• August 2012
• October 2012
• March 2013
Legend
• USGS gages Wood River
• nrKet-H ul • Hui-Ket • Ket-G im
• Gim-Hai
• Hai-nBr • nBr-sBr
• sBr-G le
• Gle-Slu • s 1u-WRR - WRR-StC
Springs Willow er Buhler Orn
Patton Cr Cain Cr
Chaney Cr Mud Cr
• wnsoncr Cove Cr Loving Cr
Silver Abv
Silver Blw
N
A
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100
80
60
40
20 J!! u "'Cl 0 a., a.,
"'Cl -20 0 2
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120 -40
August Seepage Run
-20
• Silver Cr
0 20
Measured cfs
•
X Wood River - 45 line
40 60
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100
80
60
~ 40
u "'C QJ
20 QJ "'C 0 2:
0
-20
-40
-60
-40
IMarch Seepage Run
-20
• Silver C
0
Measured cfs
20
X Wood River - 45 line
•
40
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100
80
60
40
~ u 20 "'C Q)
Q)
"'C 0 0 2:
-20
-40
-60
-80 -60
October Seepage IRun
-40 -20
• Silver Cr
0
Measured cfs
20
•
X Wood River - 45 line
40 60
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Subsurface Discharge From Model
• Stanton Crossing
– Estimated ~ Negligible –
300 ac-f/yr
• 0 - 0.41 cfs
• Modeled = 0.03 cfs
– 24 ac-f/yr
• Picabo underflow
– Estimated ~ 4,000 – 53,000
ac-f/yr
• 5.5 – 73 cfs
• Modeled = 6.4 cfs
– 4600 ac-f/yr
Location Modeled cfs
Stanton C 0.03 0 0.41
Picabo 6.38 5.5 73
Range cfs
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End