Marketing at Low Tide

presentation assembled and given by Allison Tivnon, Marketing Director at ECONorthwesttivnon@econw.com | 503-200-5066

GRESHAM NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE ANALYSIS | 3

Single-Family Affordability, 2014

STRUCTURE TYPE:Single-Family Homes and Owned Condominiums and Townhouses

INCOME:4 person householdMFI: $69,400

AFFORDABILITY:Affordable: Housing Costs=30% or less of gross family incomeDown Payment: 20%Mortgage: 30-year amortizing principal interestInterest Rate: 4.17%

Property Tax Change Ratio: 64%Property Tax Rate: $18 per $1,000Insurance: Sales Price/1,000 * 03.5Utilities: $250 per month

GEOGRAPHYPortland Urban Growth Boundary (UGB)CALCULATION: Percent of MFI spent on Housing=Yearly Housing Costs [Mortgage Payment + Monthly Utilities]+Property Tax+Home Insurance] / MFI

Gresham’s single-family housing stock is relatively affordable.

Single-family home affordability is based on a number of factors in addition to the actual sales price for a home. These factors include the household’s income, the down payment required, and current interest rates. The map shows the percent of a household’s income spent on housing for a household earning the region’s median family income of $69,400. Areas shaded in green are considered affordable for these households.

Gresham and east Portland are the most affordable areas in the region for single-family housing. In most Gresham neighborhoods, the average cost of owning a single-family home requires a family making the regional median family income to spend less than 25 percent of gross income on housing. These price points will be attractive to many who cannot afford to purchase a home in more expensive parts of the region.

ASSUMPTIONS

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I-5

I-5

I-205

I-205

I-84

DivisionPowell

217

GRESHAM

PORTLANDHILLSBORO

BEAVERTON

WILSONVILLE

Source: ECONorthwest, Metro RLIS, US Department of Housing and Urban Development

Single Family Affordability, 2014

Percent of Income Spent on HousingFor a Family Earning $69,400

Insufficient Transactions

11% - 20%

20.1% - 25%

25.1% - 30%

30.1% - 40%

40.1% - 50%

50.1% - 160%

Less Affordable

More Affordable

What We Do

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• Transportation System Plans• Comprehensive Planning• Transit-Oriented Development• Redevelopment• Equity Studies• Market and Feasibility Analysis• Affordable Housing Strategies• Economic Impact Studies• Value Pricing

What We Do

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We study how people use things and figure out how they

could use them better.

Economic Outlook and Recession

What are Recessions?

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Recession Statistics

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• Last recession ended in June 2009• Since World War II:

• Average recession lasts 11.1 months• Average period of expansion lasts 58.4 months• Minimum Expansion: 12 months• Maximum Expansion: 120 months

• Current expansion: 117 months

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

1960

1962

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1970

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2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Billi

ons

of C

hain

ed 2

009

Dol

lars

U.S. Recession Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted

3745

39

24

106

36

58

91

120

73

110

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nov- 48Oct-45

Jul-53Oct-49

Aug-57May-54

Apr-60Apr-58

Dec-69Feb-61

Nov-73Nov-70

Jan-80Mar-75

Jul-90Dec-82

Mar-01'Mar-91

Dec-07Nov-01

Aug-18Jul-09

Will be longest on record by July

2019

2nd Longest Economic Expansion in History

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3.3

3.0

2.52.2

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual Average Job GrowthPortland U.S. Average

YTD

Job Growth is Slowing the Portland Metro Area

Economists believe risk of recession is increasing

56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020

26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021

Economists believe risk of recession is increasing

56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020

26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021

3 Recession Indicators

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The Natural Rate of UnemploymentFederal Interest RateStock Market Volatility and Decline

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

e

U.S. Recession Natural Rate of Unem., Not Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Unem. Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Natural Rate of Unemployment

15

Federal Interest Rate

16

50

250

1,250

1970

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2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

S&P

500,

Clo

sing

Pric

e

U.S. Recession S&P 500 Close Price

Stock Market drops 15%

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Economists believe risk of recession is increasing

56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020

26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021

Economists believe risk of recession is increasing

56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020

26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021

Remembering ‘08

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• Housing markets collapse across the country –new construction grinds to a halt

• Major financial institutions fail (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers). Stock markets plunge

• Household debt rises dramatically, spending slows significantly

• Massive layoffs in the industry trades• Rising unemployment and foreclosures • Tax bases shrink

Public and Private sector growth stalls

Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry

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• RFPs slow to a trickle• Contracts were cancelled• On-calls stopped producing new work• Public agencies started keeping as much work

in-house as possible

A/E/C firms feel the effect and begin cost-saving measures.

Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry

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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018

Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry

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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018

Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry

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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018

OMG

WHY?

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Why do firms dependent on B2B business development sacrifice their business development staff?

WHY?

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Because they forget that they are a brand firstand a service provider second.

Understanding SOV

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“Share of Voice”

The amount of Marketing capital you spend versus your competitors

Understanding SOM

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“Share of Market”

The portion of a market controlled by a company (brand)

SOV-SOM Phenomena

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When a brand’s share of voice is greater than its share of market, it is likely to grow its market share

in the coming year. Therefore, companies that increase their marketing investment when most others are cutting back have an opportunity to

substantially improve the standing of their brands.

For more insight: https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2009/budgeting-for-the-upturn-does-share-of-voice-matter.html

WHY?

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So again, why do firms dependent on B2B business development sacrifice their

business development staff?

Gutcheck

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Because Marketing Directors and their staff haven’t demonstrated that they’re standing

guard and prepared to pivot.

Gutcheck

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Company leadership lack of faith that Marketing Directors really know what

they’re doing.

Gutcheck

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Because our Marketing and BD Departments lack of agility and pivotal motion.

When it’s all this…

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RFP

RFP

RFP RFP

RFPRFP

RFPRFP

RFPRFP

RFP

RFPRFP RFP

RFPRFP

RFP RFP RFPRFP

There’s none of this.

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Marketing Functions

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Economic Growth Cycle

ProposalsTeaming Partner MeetingsStaff TrainingIndustry ResearchPrivate WorkPublic WorkMarket ExpansionNew OfficesWebsite RedesignConference Attendance and Session Submittals

Economic Downturn

ProposalsTeaming Partner AuditsStaff TrainingIndustry ResearchPrivate WorkPublic Work Market StabilizationOffice ConsolidationWebsite RefinementsConference Attendance and Session Submittals

Marketing Functions

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Economic Downturn

Staff – Personal Brand MentoringInternal Style Guide RefinementsProcess DocumentationCompetitor AnalysesNew Marketplace DevelopmentBillable work – Editing, report layout, writing

Worst-case scenario-broken department

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Marketing Director

Still broken

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Marketing Director

Optimal scenario

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Marketing Director

In a downturn – be prepared for billable

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Marketing Director

Marketing at Low Tide

What to do now

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Marketing and BD Directors:

Reinvigorate your leadership role!

Show your firm that you are out in front of this. That your head is in the game.

What Must Be Done Now

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Marketing Coordinators:

Support your Marketing and BD Directors!

Build in time at check-in meetings to ask how you can help advance strategic research and

report backs.

What Must Be Done Now

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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)

• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)

• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)

• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)

Quarterly Report Backs

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Compile a ‘marketing flyover’ once per quarter that covers (at a minimum):• Proposals (#, P/S, $ amounts, and win-loss from

previous Q)• Website Traffic• Earned Media• Glassdoor• Special projects• Upcoming presentations• Sponsored events• Conferences

Historical Analysis – Past Recession at Your Firm

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(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)

Pull data for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 and calc:• # of proposals each year• Fluctuations in priming versus subbing• Public versus private• Dollar averages (and note the outliers)• RFP/RFQ/Sole Source

And most important: Type of Work

What Must Be Done Now

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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)

• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)

• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)

• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)

1: Know Your FlowAnticipate peak proposal times and plan around them.

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1: Know Your FlowAnticipate peak proposal times and plan around them.

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2: Creating the Essential CalendarPerspective is Power

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3: It Takes a VillageAllocate your time and get buy-in from your team.

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Proposals25%

Billable25%

Marketing Admin40%

Online Communication

10%

Proposal Coordinator

Proposals25%

Billable25%

Management5%

Branding30%

Collateral15%

Marketing Coordinator

Proposals20%

Corporate40%

Business Development

40%

Marketing Director

‘RELEASE VALVES’

Intern Rotation• Spring• Summer • Fall

Independent Contractors • Layout• Editing• Proposals

4: The Critical Value of InternsGet constantly shifting tasks done once and for all.

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• Resume updates and formatting in Word and InDesign templates

• Marketing quals consolidation

• Google analytics

• Proofreading

• Research:

• Upcoming conferences and events

• LinkedIn staff audits

• Social Media Audits

5: Tighten Up Lead Tracking

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6: The Client SurveyA free and (somewhat) painless way to really know what’s what.

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7: Rethink Your Online PresenceAre you creating a return or just following the pack?

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“Audit” – an official inspection of an individual's or organization's accounts, typically by an independent body.

8: Marketing BudgetSeize control of your expenditures

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Whether you’re given a set number or not—you’re spending. And probably more than you need to.

9: Say it Loud and ProudSet the expectation through transparency

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WALL CALENDAR ‘KANBAN’ BOARD

10: Retreat!Take charge of the year in front of you.

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• Rent a room at the library

• Brainstorm your agenda each week for one month prior –let everyone have a say

• Share agenda with your CEO and Principals

• Day of, set your Out-of-Office, bring markers, poster paper, note pads, plenty of food and beverages, and your energy. Turn off your phones or better yet, don’t bring them!

What Must Be Done Now

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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)

• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)

• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)

• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)

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“A recession can be a blessing, as it is much easier to spot a strong company without

the noise of a strong economy.”

Andrew Beattie. Industries that Thrive on Recession. Investopedia, 2018

Thank you!