Market Outlook, 1st February 2013

7/29/2019 Market Outlook, 1st February 2013

1/20

Market OutlookFebruary 1, 2013

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian market is expected to open flat today, mirroring flat opening to SGX

Nifty and mixed start to most Asian indices following unexpected fall in Chinese

PMI to 50.4 as against expectations of 51 by the economists.

The US stocks lacked direction throughout the trading day on Thursday and

eventually ended in the red following mixed batch of economic data. According to

the report from the Labor Department, initial jobless claims rose higher than

expected to 368,000 in the week ended January 26th, from the previous week's

unrevised figure of 330,000. However, on the positive side business activity in

Chicago (according to ISM) climbed to 55.6 in January from a revised 50.0 in

December 2012.

Going ahead, earnings news are likely to be in focus on Friday. Additionally,

traders are also likely to keep an eye on US Labor Department's monthly jobs

report. Further, reports on US manufacturing activity, consumer sentiments, andconstruction spending are also due to be released today.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,923 / 6,039 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,981 20,066 / 6,053 6,072 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,923 / 6,039 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,838 19,780 / 6,021 6,006 levels.

SENSEX 19,780 19,838 19,923 19,981 20,066

NIFTY 6,006 6,021 6,039 6,053 6,072

News Analysis Growth for FY2012 revised downwards to 6.2% Oil India auction floor price at`510 L&T Construction wins orders worth`1,401cr 3QFY2013 Result Review: ICICI Bank, PNB, Lupin, GCPL, Union Bank,

Satyam, Tata Global, Thermax, Jagran, ABL

3QFY2013 Result Preview: Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Marico, Indian Bank,Corporation Bank, TVS Motor

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (January 30, 2013)

FII 4,064 2,814 1,249 21,188 21,188

MFs 481 877 (396) (4,713) (4,713)

FII Derivatives (January 31, 2013)

Index Futures 3,771 4,229 (458) 7,213

Stock Futures 9,284 9,818 (534) 30,795

Gainers / Losers

Suzlon Energy 25 15.6 Colgate Palmolive 1,351 (2.4)

Essar Oil 86 13.3 National Alum 49 (2.4)

PNB 912 9.4 Satyam Comp 120 (2.3)

IFCI 35 7.1 Tata Power 101 (2.2)

Union Bank 255 5.8 Allahabad Bank 164 (2.2)

BSE Sensex (0.5) (110.0) 19,895

Nifty (0.3) (21.0) 6,035

MID CAP 0.5 37.1 6,971

SMALL CAP (0.1) (7.7) 7,074

BSE HC 0.4 28.9 8,017

BSE PSU 1.0 77.2 7,662

BANKEX (0.4) (62.1) 14,580

AUTO (0.1) (12.0) 10,994

METAL (0.0) (1.2) 10,606

OIL & GAS (0.4) (39.1) 9,359

BSE IT (0.3) (16.8) 6,394

Dow Jones (0.4) (49.8) 13,861NASDAQ (0.0) (0.2) 3,142

FTSE (0.7) (46.2) 6,277

Nikkei 0.2 24.7 11,139

Hang Seng (0.4) (92.5) 23,730

Straits Times (0.1) (3.2) 3,283

Shanghai Com 0.1 2.9 2,385

INFY (0.2) (0.1) $52.7

WIT (0.1) (0.0) $9.5IBN (1.3) (0.6) $45.8

HDB (1.4) (0.6) $40.2

Advances 1,093 679

Declines 1,066 801

Unchanged 791 90

BSE 2,378

NSE 16,028


2/20



Growth for FY2012 revised downwards to 6.2%

As per the governments first revised estimates, real GDP growth for FY2012 has

been scaled down to 6.2% from the earlier quick estimate (QE) of 6.5%. This is

because growth in the services sector, having the largest chunk in overall GDP

growth has been revised to 8.2% (as against QE 8.9%). On the other hand growthin the primary and secondary sector has been revised upwards to 3.6% (as against

2.8% QE) and 3.5% (as against 3.4% QE) respectively.

On a positive note, real GDP growth for FY2011 has been augmented to 9.3% as

compared to the earlier estimate of 8.4%. The real GDP growth has been

marginally revised upwards for FY2010 as well at 8.6% as compared to the earlier

estimate of 8.4%.

The per capita income in real terms (at constant prices) is estimated at`38,037 for

FY2012 as against `36,342 in FY2011, witnessing a slower pace of increase at

4.7% during the year, as against an increase of 7.2% during the previous year.

Meanwhile the saving rate decelerated as Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) at current

prices in FY2012 constituted 30.8% of GDP at market prices as against 34.0% in

the previous year. This decline in FY2012 is mainly led by the deceleration in the

rates of financial savings of household sector to 8.0% from 10.4% in FY2011,

private corporate sector to 7.2% from 7.9% and that of public sector to 1.3% from

2.6%. The rate of capital formation at current prices in FY2012 too declined to

35% of GDP as compared to 36.8% of GDP in the previous year.

As far as growth during FY2013 is concerned, we expect it to have bottomed out at

5.3% in 2QFY2013. Real GDP growth for 1HFY2013 stands at 5.4% as against

7.3% in 1HFY2012. For FY2013 as a whole, we expect the economy to grow at5.7% and with further improvement in the economic outlook we expect growth in

the range of 6% - 6.5% for FY2014.

L&T Construction wins orders worth`1,401cr

Larsen & Toubro has bagged various orders worth `605cr in the power T&D

segment. Also, it has bagged EPC orders worth `320cr for various civil works for

the Sindhudurg airport project in Maharashtra. Further it has bagged `476cr

worth of orders from the defence segment for designing and construction of

infrastructure facilities at an airbase in Uttar Pradesh.

Oil India auction floor price at`510

The government of India will sell a 10% stake in Oil India through the

auction of 6.01cr equity shares of face value `10 each. There is no fresh issue of

equity. Oil India has fixed the floor price of the issue at `510 per share.

During FY2012, Oil Indias cost of oilproduction stood at US$8.3/bbl, which is one of the lowest in our view. Its cost of

natural gas production stood at US$1.4/mmbtu. Due to lower cost of production,


3/20



Oil India enjoys robust operating margins (~30%) despite lower net realizations,

on the back of subsidy sharing with Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs).

Upstream oil PSU companies

have been sharing under-recoveries by the downstream companies who sell diesel,

kerosene and LPG cylinders at subsidized rates. As there is no concrete formula ormethodology to determine the annual subsidy of any of these companies, investors

have remained concerned over the lack of visibility on profitability of downstream

and upstream companies. During FY2012, subsidy shared by Oil India rose by

123.3% yoy to`7,352cr. However, given the rising under-recoveries, government

has hinted at diesel price de-regulation (diesel contributes 60% to total under-

recoveries). Hence, going forward, diesel price de-regulation is likely to result in

lower subsidy burden on upstream companies including Oil India and thus higher

realizations. Oil Indias Management also expects the subsidy amount to decline

significantly during FY2014.

As onSeptember 30, 2012, Oil India had net cash of `212/share on the balance sheet.

Considering the operating cash flow and the companys capex requirements over

the coming few years, we believe the company will maintain high cash balance,

which could pave way for acquisition of oil and gas assets. The company aims to

acquire shale gas assets in the US.

Historically, Oil India stock has traded at a lower EV/1P

Reserves compared to its global peers on account of lower realizations on crude

oil (subsidy sharing with downstream companies results in lower net realizations).

However, we believe that the governments initiatives to raise (de-regulate) the

price of diesel gradually should lead to lower subsidy sharing by upstream

companies from FY2014 and hence, result in higher realizations. Consequently,

we expect Oil Indias valuation gap to narrow gradually with global peers.

3QFY2013 Result Review

ICICI Bank - (CMP:`1,191/ TP:`1,397 / Upside: 17.3%)

ICICI bank delivered strong set of numbers for 3QFY2013, both on the

operating as well as on the asset qualityfront. On the operating front, growth on

the NII and Operating Income came at 29% and 24% yoy, respectively, in-line with

our expectations. We had build in higher provisioning expenses towards NPAs in

line with the managements guidance of about 75bps credit cost. However, the

bank has managed to broadly hold on to its good asset quality, aided by better

than expected recoveries and upgrades from their past NPAs, with Gross NPA ratio

declining sequentially by 23bp and provisioning expenses coming in below our

estimates. This enabled the bank to deliver strong earnings growth of 30% yoy. We

expect the bank to continue to relatively perform much better than the industry

average, with growth in retail loans also continuing to pick up and earnings

growth likely to sustain at least 20% levels, which is quite good in the currentenvironment.


4/20



FY2013E 22,219 2.9 7,970 69.1 569.1 1.4 14.2 17.4 2.1

FY2014E 26,447 3.0 9,555 82.9 621.7 1.5 15.6 14.5 1.9

PNB - (CMP:`912/ TP:`1,000 / Upside: 9.6%)

PNB delivered better than expected performance on the asset quality front, as their

gross and net NPA ratios came off sequentially by 5bp and 13bp, respectively (on

an absolute basis, they still remain high). Though on the operating front, the pre-

provisioning profits for the bank remained almost flat on a yoy basis (largely due

to cautious advance growth and also due to interest reversal on slippages), aided

by 15.3% yoy decline in the provisioning expenses (on back of lower investment

related provisioning), the bank posted Net profit growth of 13.5%. After witnessing

underperformance over past few days, the stock has surged today on back of

better than expected results.

FY2013E 19,688 3.2 4,710 138.9 793.3 1.0 16.7 6.6 1.2

FY2014E 22,497 3.3 5,581 164.5 933.1 1.0 17.3 5.6 1.0

Lupin (CMP-`604/ TP:`655/ Upside: 8%)

For 3QFY2013, Lupin reported net sales of `2,466cr, up 38.4% yoy, ie higher

than our estimate. The companys gross margin came in at 62.1%, lower than in

the corresponding period of last year (65.1% in 3QFY2013). However, in spite of

the same, on back of lower other expenses, the OPM came in at 23.1% vs 20.5%

in 3QFY2012, and also higher than our expectation of 20.5%. In spite of higher

taxation, the net profit grew only by 42.6% yoy to end the period at `335cr.

FY2013E 8,426 19.7 1,167 26.1 25.8 23.1 5.4 16.9 3.3

FY2014E 10,082 20.0 1,388 31.1 24.7 19.5 4.3 13.6 2.7

Union Bank - (CMP:`255 / TP:`271 / Upside: 6%)

Union Bank reported moderate operating profit growth of 6% yoy. Though

provisioning expenses for the bank declined by 12% on a yoy basis (on a high

base), still PCR improved by ~500bp, resulting into ~11% sequentially decline

on the Net NPA levels, on an absolute basis. Lower slippages coupled with

better recoveries resulted in almost flat GNPA levels sequentially, on an

absolute basis. The bank posted strong Net profit growth of 54% yoy. At the

CMP, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY2014E ABV.


5/20



FY2013E 9,963 2.8 2,256 40.8 246.3 0.8 16.2 5.9 1.0

FY2014E 11,536 2.9 2,587 46.8 285.6 0.8 16.4 5.2 0.9

GCPL (CMP:`708/TP:/Upside:-)

GCPL posted a 25.8% yoy growth in top-line to `1,691cr. Indian subcontinent

business posted a 20% yoy growth in net sales to `938cr aided by double-digit

growth in Home care (28%), Soaps (20%) and Hair care (17%) segments.

Indonesian and African business posted a top-line growth of 30% and 21.5% yoy

respectively. OPM fell by 315bp yoy to 16.6%, due to steep 61% yoy increase in

advertisement and promotion (A&P) expenses. A&P expenses as a percentage of

sales went up by 236bp on a yoy basis. Bottom-line rose by a marginal 3% yoy to

`172cr impacted by OPM compression, lower other income and higher tax rate

(up 293bp yoy to 26.2%)

FY2013E 6,355 16.7 691 20.3 23.2 34.9 7.3 23.9 4.0

FY2014E 7,548 17.4 866 25.4 25.1 27.8 6.1 19.1 3.3

Mahindra Satyam (CMP:`120 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)

For 3QFY2013, Mahindra Satyam reported higher-than-expected revenue as wellas operating performance but disappointed on the bottom-line front due to

exceptional loss of`294cr because of Abredeen claim settlement. Revenue came in

at US$356mn, up 0.6% qoq, mainly led by 1.5% qoq volume growth. In INR terms,

revenue came in at `1,938cr, up 3.1% qoq. The companys operational

performance was ahead of our expectations, with EBITDA margin growing by 5bp

qoq to 21.6%. PAT came in at `80cr, impacted by`294cr of exceptional loss.

Adjusting to the loss, the PAT came in at`374cr (ahead of our estimates), up 34%

qoq. The company continued to deliver operational exuberance with decent volume

growth.

FY2013E 7,670 20.3 1,160 9.9 28.0 12.2 3.4 7.1 1.4

FY2014E 8,308 19.3 1,274 10.8 23.5 11.1 2.6 6.5 1.3

Tata Global Beverages (CMP:`150/TP:-/Upside:-)

Tata Global Beverages (TGBL) posted a 6.1% yoy growth in topline to `1,902cr

aided by favourable foreign currency translation impact, and was in-line with our

estimates. Tea business posted a 9.3% yoy growth in topline to `1,421cr aided by

strong performance both in India and other markets such as Canada and Australia.

Coffee business posted a marginal 1.2% yoy decline in its sales to 481cr. OPM rose


6/20



by 27bp on yoy basis to 10% aided by a 238bp yoy decline in advertising and

selling expenses. Despite lower topline, the coffee business posted a 20.1% yoy

growth in its profits, aided by lower raw material costs and lower expenditure on

advertisement. Adjusted Net profit rose by 15.3% yoy to `92cr.

FY2013E 7,207 9.1 427 6.9 8.9 21.7 1.9 13.3 1.2

FY2014E 7,927 9.5 504 8.2 9.8 18.3 1.8 11.5 1.1

Thermax (CMP:`582/TP: -/Upside: - %)

For 3QFY2013, Thermax top-line and bottom-line performance was below our

expectations. Top-line declined by 17.5% yoy to`1,047cr on account of declining

order book and delays in execution (may be due to client deferrals). Thecompany's EBITDA margin came in flat at 10.7%. Consequently, Net Profit

declined by 20.2% yoy to`76cr.

FY2013E 5,552 9.3 337 28.3 19.5 20.6 3.7 12.5 1.0

FY2014E 5,767 10.2 368 30.9 18.5 18.8 3.2 10.5 0.9

Jagran (CMP:`108/TP:`126/Upside: 17%)

Jagran announced its 3QFY2013 results. The companys top-line grew by 7.8%

yoy to`342cr in-line with our expectation of`344cr. The company reported 7.1%

yoy growth in its advertising revenue to `239cr and 12.2% yoy growth in its

subscription revenue to `70cr. OPM came in flat yoy at 24.6% in-line with our

expectation of 25.0%. The tax benefit due to accumulated losses at Nai Dunia

subsidiary resulted in robust 51.7% yoy growth in net profit to`69cr. At the current

market price, Jagran is trading at 16.9x FY2014E consolidated EPS of `7.1.

FY2013E 1,503 23.1 202 6.4 25.8 16.9 4.2 10.8 2.5

FY2014E 1,681 23.1 230 7.3 26.5 14.9 3.7 9.4 2.2

Ashoka Buildcon (CMP:`200/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)

Ashoka Buildcon (ABL) posted 3QFY2013 results below our estimates, primarily

due to a slowdown in execution in the E&C segment. ABLs top-line grew by 22.1%

yoy to `431cr in 3QFY2013 (`353cr in 3QFY2012) against our estimate of

`522cr. On the EBITDAM front, ABLs margins came at 18.9% (19.6% in

3QFY2012), lower than our estimate of 23%, owing to lower-than-expected

revenue growth. On the bottom-line front, ABLs PAT declined by 35.3% yoy to`13cr (`17.0cr in 3QFY2012) against our estimate of `54cr. This was mainly on

account of lower-than-expected operating performance and higher tax rate. At

CMP, the stock is trading at P/E and P/BV of 13.4x and 0.8 FY2014E earnings.


7/20



FY2013E 2,032 22.4 142 27.0 13.0 13.0 0.9 8.6 1.9

FY2014E 2,311 22.4 166 31.6 13.4 13.4 0.8 9.8 2.2

3QFY2013 Result Preview

Bharti Airtel (CMP:`339 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Bharti Airtel is slated to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the

company to record a revenue of `20,415cr, up 1% qoq. In domestic mobile

servies, MOU is expected to go up by 3.0% qoq to 429min while ARPM is expectedto remain almost flat qoq at`0.43/min. Africa business is expected to post ~4%

qoq growth in revenues. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the company is expected

to improve by 20bp qoq to 31.5%. EBITDA margin of Africa business is expected

to remain flat qoq at ~27%. PAT is expected to be at `910cr.

FY2013E 80,353 30.9 3,249 8.6 6.1 39.7 2.4 7.7 2.4

FY2014E 86,654 31.3 4,483 11.8 7.8 28.8 2.2 6.8 2.1

BHEL (CMP:`228 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

We expect Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) to post a subdued top-line growth of

5.3% yoy to `11,110cr for 3QFY2013 as industrial slowdown continues to delay

execution. On the EBITDA front, the company's margin is expected to be flat at

17.8%. Consequently, we expect PAT to come in flat yoy at `1,425cr.

FY2013E 47,801 18.5 6,025 24.6 33.5 9.3 2.8 5.6 1.0

FY2014E 43,757 18.0 5,346 21.8 24.5 10.5 2.4 6.4 1.2

Marico (CMP:`227/TP:/Upside:-)

Marico is expected to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the topline

to grow by 21.2% yoy to `1,283cr. OPM is expected to expand by 344bp yoy to

15.0%. Bottomline is expected to grow by 54.2% yoy to `130cr.


8/20



FY2013E 4,840 13.6 415 6.4 26.3 35.3 7.3 23.0 3.1

FY2014E 5,643 13.6 523 8.1 23.3 28.0 5.9 19.3 2.7

(CMP:`202/ TP:`252 / Upside: 24.8%)

Indian Bank is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results tomorrow. We expect

the bank to report flat performance on the NII front at`1,173cr. Growth in non-

interest income is expected to be muted at 6.6% yoy to `300cr. Operating

expenses are expected to increase at a higher pace of 13.3% yoy to `611cr,

leading to 5.5% yoy decline in operating profit to `862cr. However, net profit is

expected to decline by higher 19.6% yoy, as it had lower effective tax rate in

3QFY2012, which we expect to come at normalize levels in 3QFY2013. At the

CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 5,902 3.2 1,822 41.3 247.0 1.2 18.4 5.0 0.8

FY2014E 6,563 3.2 1,901 43.1 280.2 1.1 16.8 4.7 0.7

(CMP:`457/ TP:`534 / Upside: 16.8%)

Corporation Bank is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We

expect the bank to report flat performance on the NII front at `857cr. Non-interest

income is expected to decline by 15.3% yoy to `374cr. Operating expenses are

expected to increase by 3.5% yoy to `494cr, leading to 10.8% yoy decline in pre-

provisioning profit to `737cr. Provisioning and tax expenses are expected to

decline by 13.7% and 22.0% yoy, respectively, which would limit the decline in net

profit to 5.1% yoy. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV.

FY2013E 4,835 2.0 1,555 105.0 603.6 0.9 17.5 4.4 0.8

FY2014E 5,570 2.2 1,479 99.8 688.8 0.8 14.8 4.7 0.7

TVS Motor (CMP:`44/ TP:`46/ Upside: 6%)

TVS Motor is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the

company to report a moderate growth in top-line to `1,826cr (up 3.7% yoy)

largely led by ~6% yoy growth in net average realization. The volume growth

however, remained subdued during the quarter (down 2.1% yoy) on account of

extremely weak scooter sales (down 18.1% yoy) amidst rising competition and

moderating demand environment. The motorcycle sales too remained sluggish

posting a growth of ~2% yoy. We expect the EBITDA margin to remain flat on ayoy basis at 6.5%; however margins are expected to improve by ~50bp on a

sequential basis led by superior product-mix. We expect the bottom-line to register

a 4% yoy growth to`59cr. At the CMP of`44, the stock is trading at 7.6x FY2014E


9/20



earnings.

FY2013E 7,298 6.1 216 4.6 17.4 9.7 1.6 4.1 0.3FY2014E 8,123 6.4 276 5.8 19.4 7.6 1.4 3.1 0.2

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Net sales 20,100 18,477 9 20,273 (1)

EBITDA 6,271 5,964 5 6,353 (1)

EBITDA margin (%) 31.2 32.3 31.3

Net profit 844 1,022 (17) 702 20

Net sales 10,961 10,548 4 10,400 5

EBITDA 1,971 2,080 (5) 1,899 4

EBITDA margin (%) 18.0 19.7 18.3

Net profit 1,353 1,433 (6) 1,274 6

Net profit 483 382 26 478 1

Net sales 519 415 25 473 10

EBITDA 194 151 28 165 18

EBITDA margin (%) 37.4 36.4 34.9

Net profit 144 123 17 118 22

Net profit 1,300 1,290 1 1,301 (0)

Net profit 958 770 24 954 0

Net sales 2,244 1,954 15 2,221 1

EBITDA 259 200 29 269 (4)EBITDA margin (%) 11.5 10.2 12.1

Net profit 67 47 43 39 73


10/20



Net sales 904 862 5 1,701 (47)

EBITDA 409 379 8 121 239

EBITDA margin (%) 45.3 44.0 7.1

Net profit 226 212 7 783 (71)

Economic and Political News

Government to come out with modified DTC Bill Government revises FY12 GDP to 6.2% from 6.5% Discretionary consumer spending falls: Credit Suisse

Corporate News

L&T Construction secures orders worth`1,401cr in Jan REpower bags order for wind farm in Canada DLF sells wind turbine project in Gujarat for`282cr Lupin to launch generic drugs in US by March-endSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


11/20

Date Company

February 01, 2013Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Adani Enterp., IDFC, Marico, Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, Hind. Const., Graphite India, TTKHealthcare

February 02, 2013 Divi's Lab., Indian Bank

February 03, 2013

February 04, 2013 J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK

February 05, 2013 NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank

February 06, 2013Cipla, Tech Mahindra, IRB Infra, MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Electrical, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements,Honeywell Automation

February 07, 2013 Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, Prakash Industries, JK Tyre, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories

February 08, 2013M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, Bharat Forge, GSPL,BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const., Subros, Cravatex

February 09, 2013 Indraprasth Gas, Tata Comm

February 10, 2013

February 11, 2013 ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma

February 12, 2013 Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, HPCL, Motherson Sumi, CESC, HT Media

February 13, 2013 Coal India, IOC, Tata Steel, BPCL, Madras Cements, PTC India, Finolex CablesFebruary 14, 2013 Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's, Monnet Ispat, Page Industries, India Cements, FAG Bearings

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

February 1, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jan F 48.80 48.80

7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jan 155.00 161.00

7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jan 7.80 7.80

3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 51.40 51.00

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jan 50.60 51.00

February 5, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jan F 55.30 --

February 7, 2013 5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Feb 7 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Feb 7 0.75 0.75

3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec (2.40) --

February 8, 2013 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jan 14.10 20.00

11:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jan 2.50 2.00

February 11, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jan 6.30 --

5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jan (1.90) --

February 12, 2013 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jan 2.70 --

11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Dec (0.10) --February 14, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jan 7.18 --

12:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 4Q P 0.40 --

3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 4Q A (0.10) --

February 15, 2013 7:45PM US Industrial Production % Jan 0.26 --

February 20, 2013 3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Jan (12.10) --

7:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Jan 954.00 --

7:00PM US Building permits Thousands Jan 909.00 --

7:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jan (0.20) --

February 21, 2013 8:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Jan 4.94 --

7:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jan -- --

February 22, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jan 2.20 --


February 01, 2013

Market Outlook


12/20



Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends


Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

3. 5

5. 7

9. 0

7. 5

11.2

8. 5

7. 68 .2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5 5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

11.0

12.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

(%)

2. 7

1 .0

4. 3

(2.8) (1.3)

2. 5

(2.0) (0.1)

2. 0

(0.7)

8. 3

(0.1)(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

(%)

7 .7

6 .9

7 .4

7 .7

7 .5 7 .67 .6 7 .5

8 .0 8 .1

7 .5

7 .2

6 .2

6 .4

6 .6

6 .8

7 .0

7 .2

7 .4

7 .6

7 .8

8 .0

8 .2

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

M

ar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

O

ct-12

Nov-12

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

M

ar-12

Apr-12

M

ay-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

O

ct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

M fg . PM I Services PM I

(30.0)

(15.0)

0 .0

15.0

30.0

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Exp orts yoy g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)


13/20

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 130 - 2,532 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 18.6 16.1 4.0 3.4 22.6 22.5 1.8 1.6

United Phosphorus Buy 133 170 5,889 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.9 7.8 1.3 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 308 - 5,258 2,983 3,477 16.1 16.0 18.5 21.2 16.7 14.5 4.8 3.7 32.8 28.7 1.7 1.5

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 86 96 4,350 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 6.9 5.8 1.3 1.1 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Accumulate 24 28 6,505 12,910 14,836 8.8 9.6 1.5 2.2 16.5 11.0 2.2 2.0 9.3 13.4 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 355 - 536 928 1,103 9.7 10.4 22.4 32.6 15.9 10.9 1.9 1.7 12.1 16.2 0.7 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,028 - 58,678 20,775 23,889 18.5 19.0 107.6 126.4 18.9 16.0 7.8 6.2 45.8 42.8 2.4 2.0

Bharat Forge Buy 230 278 5,345 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 12.3 9.9 2.1 1.8 18.5 19.7 1.0 0.8

Bosch India* Neutral 9,244 - 29,025 9,973 11,320 17.8 18.0 396.2 455.7 23.3 20.3 4.4 3.7 18.8 18.2 2.5 2.1

CEAT Buy 105 163 361 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Neutral 123 - 10,451 6,112 7,074 13.1 14.9 6.1 8.2 20.1 15.0 3.1 2.7 16.0 18.8 1.4 1.1

FAG Bearings* Accumulate 1,528 1,807 2,538 1,715 1,939 17.6 18.4 127.7 150.6 12.0 10.1 2.4 2.0 21.7 21.1 1.3 1.1

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,823 1,923 36,411 23,990 27,038 13.8 14.6 105.8 120.2 17.2 15.2 7.0 5.6 44.3 41.0 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 116 165 476 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and MahindraAccumulate 890 998 54,660 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.4 62.1 16.4 14.3 3.6 3.1 24.2 23.2 1.1 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,583 - 45,724 42,304 51,088 7.5 8.7 64.4 92.9 24.6 17.0 2.7 2.4 11.6 14.9 0.9 0.7

Motherson Sumi Neutral 197 - 11,581 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 24.5 18.6 5.2 4.2 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.6

Subros Buy 27 35 163 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 10.4 5.4 0.6 0.5 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 298 337 79,424 190,883 217,164 12.8 13.1 35.5 42.5 8.4 7.0 2.2 1.7 30.2 27.6 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 44 46 2,076 7,298 8,123 6.1 6.4 4.6 5.8 9.6 7.5 1.6 1.4 17.4 19.4 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Reduce 651 573 13,793 7,790 9,653 4.5 7.8 8.7 22.1 74.8 29.5 5.2 4.5 7.1 16.5 1.8 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 243 - 1,752 3,567 4,357 11.8 10.9 24.6 26.8 9.9 9.1 1.4 1.3 30.7 26.3 0.9 0.8

BHEL Neutral 228 - 55,732 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.3 10.4 2.8 2.4 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.1

Blue Star Buy 167 224 1,500 2,538 2,681 4.6 5.7 7.3 11.3 22.7 14.8 3.3 2.8 15.6 20.7 0.7 0.6

Crompton Greaves Buy 107 135 6,858 12,320 14,390 5.5 7.2 4.3 7.8 24.9 13.7 1.8 1.7 7.4 12.6 0.6 0.5

Jyoti Structures Buy 41 51 335 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.4 3.5 0.5 0.4 11.9 13.5 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 61 78 1,567 6,909 7,907 6.2 7.2 5.4 8.8 11.3 6.9 1.3 1.1 17.0 23.6 0.4 0.4

LMW Reduce 2,179 1,992 2,454 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 15.2 13.1 2.5 2.3 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 580 - 6,906 5,552 5,767 9.3 10.2 28.3 30.9 20.5 18.8 3.7 3.2 19.3 18.4 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


14/20



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,323 - 24,830 11,012 12,333 21.1 20.9 77.0 80.3 17.2 16.5 3.2 2.9 19.5 18.7 2.0 1.7

Ambuja Cements Neutral 202 - 31,198 10,210 11,811 26.0 25.7 11.2 12.6 18.1 16.0 3.9 3.5 20.3 20.7 2.6 2.2

India Cements Neutral 86 - 2,649 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 10.0 8.0 0.7 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 146 - 1,784 2,171 2,544 22.5 22.5 21.6 23.2 6.8 6.3 1.2 1.1 19.0 17.8 0.9 1.2

Madras Cements Neutral 240 - 5,718 3,814 4,045 28.8 27.1 18.3 18.7 13.2 12.9 2.4 2.0 19.4 17.0 2.1 1.9

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,471 - 15,574 5,678 6,251 29.0 28.6 288.1 334.0 15.5 13.4 4.3 3.4 31.7 28.4 2.1 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,902 - 52,150 20,466 23,017 23.3 24.3 100.0 117.1 19.0 16.2 3.5 2.9 19.6 19.5 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 200 286 1,053 2,032 2,311 22.4 22.4 27.0 31.6 7.4 6.3 0.9 0.8 13.0 13.4 1.9 2.2

Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 286 2,262 2,522 5.9 6.3 0.9 1.6 16.9 10.0 0.5 0.5 2.7 4.6 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 122 164 4,040 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.2 6.8 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.4

ITNL Accumulate 198 225 3,843 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.5 6.8 1.2 1.0 17.0 16.3 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Neutral 34 - 1,054 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.4 111.4 10.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.4 0.8 0.5

Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 87 100 18,737 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 23.8 19.1 1.4 1.3 6.2 7.3 2.8 2.5

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,543 1,788 94,877 60,666 69,525 10.6 11.2 71.9 85.0 21.5 18.2 3.3 2.9 14.5 15.2 1.8 1.6

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 47 - 1,200 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 15.1 11.4 0.5 0.5 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Punj Lloyd Neutral 53 - 1,762 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 29.3 16.5 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.5 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 123 168 1,849 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 17.0 14.1 2.0 1.8 13.0 13.5 1.1 1.0

Simplex Infra Buy 183 251 907 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 7.9 5.9 0.7 0.6 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.4

Unity Infra Buy 40 59 295 2,180 2,455 13.7 13.4 13.3 15.0 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3 12.5 12.5 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Buy 164 199 8,175 6,403 7,186 2.7 2.8 30.5 33.6 5.4 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.6 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 112 - 6,278 4,706 5,444 2.9 3.0 21.4 22.4 5.2 5.0 0.9 0.8 15.1 14.2 - -Axis Bank Accumulate 1,505 1,641 64,295 15,959 18,660 3.2 3.2 119.2 139.0 12.6 10.8 2.4 2.0 20.3 20.1 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 867 - 35,661 15,284 18,032 2.5 2.6 109.6 137.7 7.9 6.3 1.2 1.0 15.5 17.1 - -

Bank of India Neutral 353 - 20,237 12,568 14,758 2.2 2.4 41.6 64.1 8.5 5.5 1.1 0.9 11.6 16.0 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 59 - 3,479 3,720 4,268 2.9 2.8 10.9 13.0 5.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.2 16.9 - -

Canara Bank Accumulate 481 516 21,313 10,828 12,005 2.1 2.2 64.7 80.4 7.4 6.0 1.0 0.9 13.2 14.7 - -

Central Bank Neutral 84 - 6,194 7,252 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.8 21.4 5.0 3.9 0.9 0.7 13.1 14.8 - -

Corporation Bank Buy 456 534 6,758 4,835 5,570 2.0 2.2 105.0 99.8 4.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 17.5 14.8 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 111 124 3,886 3,125 3,457 2.7 2.8 26.2 24.2 4.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 19.6 15.6 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


15/20



Financials

Federal Bank Accumulate 506 557 8,653 2,667 2,920 3.2 3.2 49.1 51.4 10.3 9.8 1.4 1.2 13.9 13.1 - -

HDFC Neutral 787 - 121,291 7,446 8,923 3.5 3.5 32.2 38.5 24.5 20.4 5.0 4.4 35.4 32.6 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 643 - 152,361 21,724 26,578 4.3 4.3 28.7 36.1 22.5 17.8 4.3 3.6 20.7 22.1 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,191 1,397 136,934 22,219 26,447 2.9 3.0 69.1 82.9 17.2 14.4 2.1 1.9 14.2 15.6 - -

IDBI Bank Accumulate 108 122 13,756 8,196 9,305 1.9 2.1 15.4 22.3 7.0 4.8 0.7 0.7 10.7 14.1 - -

Indian Bank Buy 201 252 8,649 5,902 6,563 3.2 3.2 41.3 43.2 4.9 4.7 0.8 0.7 18.4 16.8 - -

IOB Accumulate 81 90 6,448 7,063 8,308 2.3 2.5 12.6 20.4 6.4 4.0 0.6 0.5 9.0 13.3 - -J & K Bank Neutral 1,369 - 6,634 2,830 2,910 3.6 3.6 234.8 197.4 5.8 6.9 1.3 1.2 25.1 18.0 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 282 328 14,209 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 13.8 10.3 2.2 1.9 16.9 19.7 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 334 - 9,755 6,330 7,105 2.6 2.7 58.4 65.1 5.7 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.5 14.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 912 933 30,948 19,688 22,497 3.2 3.3 138.9 164.5 6.6 5.6 1.2 1.0 16.7 17.3 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 27 34 3,621 1,583 1,789 3.0 2.9 3.5 4.1 7.8 6.7 1.3 1.1 19.1 17.7 - -

St Bk of India Neutral 2,437 - 163,507 60,677 69,712 3.3 3.3 224.3 257.3 10.9 9.5 1.9 1.6 17.6 17.7 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 135 159 8,096 6,673 7,644 2.9 3.0 30.0 27.1 4.5 5.0 0.9 0.8 20.7 16.2 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 5,042 5,235 6,086 2.3 2.4 12.0 14.9 6.3 5.1 1.0 0.9 12.0 13.5 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 255 271 14,045 9,963 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.8 46.8 6.3 5.5 1.0 0.9 16.2 16.4 - -

United Bank Buy 74 87 2,671 3,498 3,858 2.5 2.8 15.1 21.6 4.9 3.4 0.6 0.5 12.5 16.1 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 59 - 2,946 2,333 2,728 2.0 2.2 7.3 10.4 8.1 5.7 0.8 0.7 9.3 12.1 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 522 576 18,666 3,364 4,260 2.8 3.0 36.3 42.6 14.4 12.2 3.2 2.6 24.6 23.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,502 - 43,184 11,198 13,319 15.9 15.7 122.1 147.1 36.9 30.6 12.4 9.7 37.7 35.7 3.8 3.1

Britannia Buy 484 584 5,780 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 26.4 19.6 9.6 7.4 39.1 42.7 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,351 - 18,370 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 37.1 31.8 34.3 28.8 102.0 98.5 5.8 5.1

Dabur India Neutral 132 - 22,963 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.7 5.4 28.3 24.3 12.0 9.3 44.5 41.5 3.7 3.1

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,768 - 15,848 3,084 3,617 15.3 15.5 101.2 118.3 37.2 31.9 11.3 9.2 33.5 31.9 4.7 3.9

Godrej Consumer Neutral 708 - 24,110 6,355 7,548 16.7 17.4 20.3 25.4 34.9 27.9 7.4 6.1 23.2 25.1 4.1 3.4

HUL Neutral 473 - 102,250 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 15.1 17.0 31.3 27.9 24.9 17.8 85.7 74.3 3.9 3.4

ITC Neutral 307 - 242,295 29,148 34,191 35.7 36.1 9.4 11.1 32.8 27.7 10.9 9.0 35.9 35.7 7.9 6.7

Marico Neutral 227 - 14,658 4,840 5,643 13.6 13.6 6.4 8.1 35.4 28.0 7.0 5.6 26.3 23.3 3.1 2.5

Nestle* Neutral 4,757 - 45,869 8,487 10,081 21.2 22.1 113.0 142.5 42.1 33.4 25.3 17.4 70.5 61.6 5.4 4.4


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


16/20



FMCG

Tata Global Neutral 149 - 9,236 7,207 7,927 9.1 9.5 6.9 8.2 21.6 18.3 2.3 2.2 8.9 9.8 1.2 1.0

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 689 725 47,845 24,453 27,269 19.8 18.7 45.0 50.0 15.3 13.8 3.7 3.1 24.4 22.6 1.9 1.6

Hexaware* Buy 79 118 2,349 1,941 2,118 20.8 19.0 10.7 10.7 7.4 7.4 1.8 1.6 25.3 22.0 0.9 0.8

Infosys Neutral 2,789 - 160,140 40,746 44,283 28.9 28.8 162.6 172.9 17.2 16.1 4.0 3.4 23.5 21.3 3.3 2.9

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 171 191 1,905 1,900 2,064 18.2 17.8 19.1 21.2 8.9 8.0 1.4 1.2 15.2 14.6 0.7 0.5

KPIT Cummins Buy 112 130 2,157 2,221 2,390 16.1 15.9 11.3 13.0 10.0 8.6 2.2 1.8 21.9 20.9 1.0 0.8Mahindra Satyam Neutral 120 - 14,112 7,670 8,308 20.3 19.3 9.9 10.8 12.2 11.1 3.4 2.6 28.0 23.5 1.5 1.3

Mindtree Neutral 787 - 3,258 2,339 2,502 20.9 18.4 75.4 78.1 10.4 10.1 2.5 2.0 24.6 20.3 1.2 1.0

Mphasis& Accumulate 373 396 7,845 5,531 5,874 17.6 17.5 35.4 37.7 10.5 9.9 1.6 1.3 14.7 13.5 0.9 0.7

NIIT Buy 27 36 447 1,048 1,161 9.1 10.9 4.1 6.2 6.6 4.4 0.7 0.6 10.3 14.1 0.3 0.2

Persistent Neutral 550 - 2,199 1,277 1,398 26.8 25.2 48.0 53.9 11.5 10.2 2.2 1.8 19.0 17.9 1.4 1.2

TCS Accumulate 1,343 1,465 262,806 62,954 70,871 29.0 28.9 71.6 79.1 18.8 17.0 6.2 5.0 33.2 29.7 4.0 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 999 1,087 12,782 6,671 7,290 19.8 19.0 94.1 1 06.4 10.6 9.4 2.5 2.0 24.0 21.6 2.0 1.8

Wipro Neutral 411 - 101,264 43,231 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.2 28.1 15.7 14.6 3.0 2.6 19.3 17.9 2.0 1.8

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 245 264 4,491 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 21.1 17.0 4.1 3.5 21.0 22.3 2.8 2.4

HT Media Buy 104 121 2,438 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 14.1 12.6 1.5 1.4 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Accumulate 108 126 3,413 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 16.9 14.9 4.2 3.7 25.8 26.5 2.5 2.2

PVR Neutral 262 - 759 682 786 17.3 16.9 17.6 19.7 14.9 13.3 1.8 1.5 14.9 14.5 1.5 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 471 - 18,552 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 26.8 24.7 6.5 5.8 25.8 25.2 9.0 7.8

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 450 - 10,199 10,746 13,982 30.8 31.1 43.3 55.5 10.4 8.1 1.1 1.0 11.4 12.6 3.0 2.3Coal India Neutral 354 - 223,315 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.6 13.3 4.3 3.5 33.1 29.1 2.3 2.1

Electrosteel Castings Buy 26 34 886 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 1.8 2.6 14.5 9.9 0.5 0.2 3.6 5.1 0.6 0.6

Hind. Zinc Buy 129 149 54,338 12,002 13,759 49.7 50.8 14.7 16.4 8.8 7.9 1.7 1.4 21.1 19.8 2.6 1.9

Hindalco Neutral 116 - 22,161 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.7 7.4 0.7 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 883 - 19,700 39,072 40,493 16.5 18.2 82.4 90.3 10.7 9.8 1.1 1.0 10.7 10.7 0.9 0.9

MOIL Neutral 252 - 4,232 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 9.8 9.0 1.5 1.4 16.7 16.2 2.1 1.8

Monnet Ispat Buy 255 344 1,625 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 6.1 4.6 0.6 0.6 11.3 13.4 1.7 1.2

Nalco Reduce 49 44 12,732 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 24.9 15.5 1.1 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.4 1.3

NMDC Buy 154 198 61,195 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.3 7.5 2.0 1.7 27.0 24.6 3.6 3.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


17/20



Metals & Mining

SAIL Neutral 87 - 35,853 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.1 7.4 0.8 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0

Sesa Goa Neutral 186 - 16,204 2,412 3,911 30.8 33.1 29.6 31.8 6.3 5.9 1.0 0.9 16.3 15.4 8.2 5.1

Sterlite Inds Neutral 114 - 38,278 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 6.8 6.4 0.8 0.7 11.6 11.2 0.9 0.8

Tata Steel Accumulate 405 463 39,315 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 18.4 9.1 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.6 0.5

Sarda Buy 127 148 455 1,442 1,494 19.0 19.1 29.2 31.7 4.4 4.0 0.5 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.7 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 46 73 618 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.8 2.2 0.3 0.2 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat Buy 108 143 343 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 3.9 3.2 0.4 0.3 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.5

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 324 383 61,846 17,394 17,034 76.4 72.3 60.8 55.1 5.3 5.9 1.1 0.9 21.9 17.0 2.7 2.4

GAIL Neutral 342 - 43,439 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.1 9.7 1.7 1.5 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

ONGC Reduce 340 312 290,587 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 11.1 10.5 1.9 1.7 18.3 17.2 1.7 1.6

Reliance Industries Neutral 887 - 290,305 362,700 380,031 8.9 8.9 68.1 71.5 13.0 12.4 1.4 1.3 12.4 11.8 0.8 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 312 - 4,007 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.7 13.3 4.1 3.7 33.2 29.2 1.2 1.0

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 260 - 3,637 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.1 2.4 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Buy 152 179 11,385 32,210 41,362 6.1 5.8 15.4 15.6 9.9 9.7 2.6 2.2 29.1 24.1 0.4 0.3

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 73 - 4,080 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.3 8.6 1.4 1.2 17.9 15.0 3.5 3.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 78 95 1,470 1,490 1,714 16.2 17.1 7.4 9.5 10.5 8.2 2.9 2.2 30.7 30.2 1.1 0.9

Aurobindo Pharma Accumulate 188 208 5,465 5,463 6,279 15.0 15.0 12.4 14.0 15.1 13.4 2.0 1.7 18.8 17.8 1.6 1.4

Aventis* Neutral 2,412 - 5,554 1,482 1,682 17.5 16.6 82.9 87.8 29.1 27.5 4.6 3.7 16.3 14.8 3.3 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 864 926 17,698 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 26.4 19.3 5.8 4.6 23.7 26.6 3.2 2.6

Cipla Neutral 407 - 32,695 8,151 9,130 25.8 24.8 20.2 21.6 20.2 18.9 3.6 3.1 19.4 17.6 3.8 3.3

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,918 - 32,565 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 22.9 20.7 4.7 4.0 22.4 20.8 3.4 3.0

Dishman Pharma Buy 109 145 876 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.4 7.5 0.9 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.3 1.1

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,051 - 17,373 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.0 24.9 7.8 7.0 20.1 26.3 5.8 5.0

Indoco Remedies Buy 61 78 561 642 784 14.2 15.2 5.7 7.8 10.7 7.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 16.4 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Buy 493 559 6,216 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.5 13.2 3.9 3.1 26.7 26.4 2.3 1.9

Lupin Accumulate 604 655 27,047 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.1 31.1 23.2 19.4 5.4 4.3 25.8 24.7 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 448 - 18,938 12,046 11,980 16.0 15.8 37.3 32.1 12.0 14.0 4.6 3.7 45.3 29.7 1.6 1.6

Sun Pharma Neutral 718 - 74,266 9,902 12,313 42.6 42.6 26.7 29.1 26.9 24.7 5.1 4.4 20.7 19.1 6.7 5.3

Power

GIPCL Accumulate 70 78 1,060 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 13.0 6.1 0.7 0.7 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


18/20



Power

NTPC Neutral 157 - 129,124 72,809 81,951 23.0 23.7 12.0 13.4 13.1 11.7 1.6 1.4 12.5 12.9 2.4 2.3

Real Estate

Anant Raj Neutral 82 - 2,412 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 9.7 6.4 0.6 0.6 6.3 8.9 5.0 3.8

DLF Neutral 278 - 47,189 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 29.0 20.7 1.8 1.8 6.4 8.7 7.2 5.9

HDIL Buy 77 115 3,212 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.2 2.4

MLIFE Accumulate 410 446 1,676 786 888 26.3 26.7 31.0 36.3 13.2 11.3 1.3 1.2 10.1 10.8 2.4 2.1

TelecomBharti Airtel Neutral 339 - 128,888 80,353 86,654 30.9 31.3 8.6 11.8 39.7 28.8 2.4 2.2 6.1 7.8 2.4 2.1

Idea Cellular Neutral 113 - 37,302 21,797 23,142 26.9 27.7 3.1 4.7 35.9 24.2 2.6 2.4 7.4 9.8 2.2 2.0

Rcom Neutral 83 - 17,059 21,032 22,084 31.8 30.2 2.9 4.0 28.2 20.7 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,450 1,590 3,081 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 23.9 18.2 4.9 4.1 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 197 217 1,961 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 20.1 12.7 2.6 2.2 12.7 17.4 0.6 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Buy 416 495 527 460 596 16.4 16.2 34.7 45.0 12.0 9.3 3.0 2.3 27.7 27.8 1.2 1.0

Cravatex Buy 431 545 111 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 11.5 9.5 2.7 2.2 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.4

CRISIL Neutral 1,002 - 7,034 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 29.2 25.1 13.2 10.6 50.9 46.9 6.7 5.7

Finolex Cables Accumulate 58 61 888 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 7.1 5.8 1.0 0.8 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

Force Motors Buy 440 550 573 2,027 2,299 4.6 5.1 35.3 50.0 12.4 8.8 0.5 0.5 3.9 5.3 0.1 0.1

Goodyear India Accumulate 318 360 734 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 13.3 9.6 2.1 1.8 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

Greenply Industries Sell 400 309 966 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 13.6 9.1 2.2 1.8 16.8 21.0 0.8 0.7

Hitachi Neutral 141 - 325 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 22.3 11.6 1.8 1.6 8.3 14.4 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,536 2,842 2,243 1,809 2,117 5.5 7.5 84.9 135.3 29.9 18.7 3.2 2.8 11.3 16.0 1.2 1.0

Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 670 744 1,178 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 18.6 16.0 2.7 2.4 15.4 16.0 1.1 1.1ITD Cementation Buy 237 334 273 1,455 1,630 12.4 12.6 29.8 40.5 8.0 5.9 0.6 0.6 8.2 9.8 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 151 - 2,441 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 38.9 23.7 3.9 3.6 10.1 15.6 2.5 2.1

MCX Neutral 1,421 - 7,246 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 22.8 19.7 6.3 5.4 27.5 27.4 10.0 8.4

MRF Neutral 13,151 - 5,578 13,030 14,405 10.3 10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1 9.3 7.8 1.6 1.4 19.1 18.7 0.5 0.5

Page Industries Accumulate 3,450 3,602 3,848 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 32.7 25.9 16.6 11.7 59.3 53.2 4.6 3.7

Relaxo Footwears Buy 817 933 980 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 17.4 12.3 4.3 3.2 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9

Sintex Industries Buy 63 79 1,957 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 291 366 273 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.4 4.0 0.9 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 12 - 344 6,765 7,393 18.1 18.0 6.4 7.5 1.8 1.5 0.1 0.1 6.1 6.7 0.6 0.6


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


19/20



zOthers

SpiceJet Reduce 47 43 2,291 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 13.1 8.8 19.0 6.0 - - 0.5 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 69 108 432 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.7 7.6 1.2 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 310 384 478 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.7 4.5 0.7 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.3 0.2

TTK Healthcare Buy 515 643 400 374 425 7.9 9.5 24.1 32.7 21.4 15.7 19.7 22.5 0.9 0.8

TVS Srichakra Buy 257 322 197 1,461 1,625 6.9 8.2 24.6 53.7 10.4 4.8 1.3 1.1 12.9 24.9 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,805 - 23,609 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 69.4 39.9 3.2 2.9 5.8 7.6 2.7 2.4

Vesuvius India Neutral 334 - 678 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.5 11.6 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on January 31, 2013


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

February 01, 2013


20/20


Market Outlook, 1st February 2013

Documents

Transcript of Market Outlook, 1st February 2013