Climate Baseline Scenarios and GCMs performance By Mario Bidegain
Mario Molina: Energy and Climate Change
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Energy and Climate ChangeMario Molina
University of California, San Diego
Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studies in Energy and the Environment
Commission for Environmental Cooperation of North America
Joint Public Advisory Committee
Greening North America’s Energy Economy
Calgary, Alberta
April 24, 2013
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
47% 47% 47%
36%34%
38%42%
77% 77%71%
57% 59%63%
67%
Yes, solid evidence the earth is warmingWarming mostly because of human activity
Two-Thirds Say the Earth is Warming
Source: More Say There Is Solid Evidence of Global Warming, Pew Research Center (2012)
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Public Perception of Climate ChangeIs the public convinced?
• Media coverage of climate change is not “balanced” and is affecting public opinion throughout the world
YES26%
Of people believe climate change is happening and humans are causing it
NO74%
Of people are not convinced or deny humans are causing climate change
Source: BBC CLIMATE CHANGE POLL – February 2010http://thinkprogress.org/romm/issue/
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Media CoverageDoes reporting reflect the consensus?
• Media coverage misrepresents scientific understanding of man-made climate change.
• Because of the institutionalized journalistic norm of balanced reporting, US television news coverage has perpetrated an informational bias by significantly diverging from the consensus view in climate science that humans contribute to climate change.
YES28%
Of news coverage depicts human contribution to warming as significant
NO72%
Of news coverage includes a skeptic viewpoint or denies man-made warming
Source: Boykoff M.T. and J.M. Boykoff , Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press, Global Environmental Change ,14, 125–136.
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Scientific EvidenceAre scientists convinced?
YES97%
Of climate scientist think climate change is significantly due to human activity
NO3%
Of climate scientist do not think climate change is significantly due to human activity
Sources: Anderegg et al, Expert credibility in climate change, PNAS, 107(27), 2010Doran PT and Zimmerman MK, Examining the scientific consensus on climate change, Eos Trans AGU, 90:22–23, 2009.
• There’s a consensus of scientists because there’s a consensus of evidence.
• Not only is there a vast difference in the number of convinced vs. unconvinced scientists there is also a considerable gap in expertise between the two groups.
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Chemical Composition of Earth’s Atmosphere
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Atmospheric Concentration of CO2 for the past 10,000 years
Time before present (years)
Source: IPCC, WG1- AR4, IPCC 2007
10,000 5,000 0
Con
cen
trati
on
(p
pm
)
350
300
250
1.0
0
Carbon dioxide
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Global Mean Surface Temperature Reconstructions
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Floods 1950-2009
Source:
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Major Wild Fires 1950-2009
Source:
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YALE ENVIRONMENT 360
02 JUN 2011: OPINION
Forum: Is Extreme WeatherLinked to Global Warming?In the past year, the world has seen a large number of extreme weather events, from the Russian heat wave last summer, to the severe flooding in Pakistan, to the recent tornadoes in the U.S. In a Yale Environment 360 forum, a panel of experts weighs in on whether the wild weather may be tied to increasing global temperatures.
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Temperature Anomaly Distribution in the North Hemisphere
• Statistical analysis of measured temperatures from 1951 to 2011
1 = “Hot” summerσ2 = “Very Hot” summerσ3 = “Extremely Hot” summerσ
• The probability of an extreme heat wave has increase by about 40 times in the last 50 years.
Frequency of occurrence of local temperature anomalies in units of the local standard deviation.
Recent examples of summer temperature anomalies exceeding +3 include the heat σwave and drought in Oklahoma, Texas and Mexico in 2011.
Extremely Hot Summer
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Temperature anomalies ( )σ
Source: J. Hansen et al., Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice, 2012
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The short answer is yes.
A warming climate puts more energy into storms, including hurricanes, loading them with more rainfall and the stronger winds pushing more of a storm surge.
Overall, climate change has stacked the deck so that this kind of event happens more frequently.
Source: Robert Corell, Jeff Masters and Kevin TrenberthPolitico, November 5, 2012.
Did climate change contribute to Hurricane Sandy?
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The Conference of the Parties takes note of
the Copenhagen Accord of 18 December 2009.
• The Heads of State, Heads of Government, Ministers, and other heads … have agreed on this Copenhagen Accord which is operational immediately.
• We underline that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time.
• We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required
… to reduce global emissions to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius …
The Copenhagen Accord
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Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
S. Pacala & R. Socolow
• Improved fuel economy
• More efficient buildings
• Improved power plant efficiency
• Replacing natural gas for coal
• Carbon capture and storage
• Nuclear fission
• Wind electricity
• Solar energy
• Biofuels
• Forest management
BAU
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450 ppm Pathway: < 2 oC Temperature Increase
Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Den Elzen, M.G.J. and M. Meinshausen, 2006: Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2°C climate target.; IEA World Economic Outlook 2007; Project Catalyst analysis.
Global Greenhouse Gas emissions
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
40
52
61
70Reference pathway
-50%-28%
44
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 20300
40 44 35 450ppm pathway
GtC
O2e
/yea
r
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New generation of nuclear power plants
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CO2 Capture and Geological StorageThe IPCC and MIT have
concluded that using fossil
fuels is sustainable if carbon
dioxide capture and
geological storage
technologies, which are
currently being developed,
are implemented.
IPCCThird Report on Mitigation, 2007
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyThe Future of Coal. Options for a carbon-constrained world. An interdisciplinary MIT study. 2007
Ilustration: IPCC. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. 2005
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Actions Needed To Address Climate Change
• Put a price on carbon emissions so marketplace can work to find cheapest reductions, through a new international agreement in the post-Kyoto period
• Increase investments in energy-technology research, development and demonstration
• Expand international cooperation on deploying advanced energy technologies
• Accelerate “win-win” measures
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Value of a Climate PolicyUnder [email protected]
A NEW WHEELwith lower odds
of EXTREMES
What would we buy with STABILIZATION
of CO2 at 550 ppm?
NO POLICY
Source:MIT2009
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GHG Abatement Cost CurvesAbatement cost€ / tCO2e
Abatement potentialGtCO2e /year
Measures with cost
Efficiency measures
10 15 20 25 30 35 38
Transportation SectorBuilding SectorAgricultureFirst Generation BiofuelsMini Hydroelectric PowerPlants
Geothermal Energy2nd Generation Biofuels
Nuclear EnergySolar EnergyWind Energy
ReforestationTransport (Hybrid)
Carbon Capture & StorageMassive Photovoltaic Systems
Improvement Processes for Agriculture Source: McKinsey, 2009
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• Recent OECD data reveals a system of fossil fuel subsidies and taxes that is horribly overcomplicated and illogical.
• The principal conclusion is that government support for oil, coal and natural gas is still increasing across the developed world.
• The 2011 total value of fossil fuel subsidies for the OECD countries amounted to more than USD$80 billion, 3/4 being for petroleum.
Fossil fuel subsidies and tax breaks are still rising
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Human Population Growth
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, 2010.
(2011)
(1930)
(1960)
(1975)
(2000)
(1800)
(1987)
7 billion