Marco Zupi, CeSPI Rome Tuesday 21st April, 2009
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Transcript of Marco Zupi, CeSPI Rome Tuesday 21st April, 2009
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 1
Thinking Societies’ Relation to Environment and Climate in
Africa Sustainability, Development, Migrations &
ConflictsMarco Zupi, CeSPI
RomeTuesday 21st April, 2009
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 2
• Need to shift from a merely environmental approach to an ecological ecological one: to talk in terms of human ecosystems and in the human fittedness for ecosystems. Need of a more integral relationship between socio-economic systems and nature (J. Kovel, 2007).
• The environmental problems of sustainability on one hand and the social, economic and political problems of increasing poverty and inequality on the other are not separate: when these factors collide we have a new scale of problems.
• Not only from climate change to migration to conflicts to migration, but also a combination of rapidly changing social and economic conditions (and correlated migrations and tensions/conflicts) and human driven climate change will set off a chain reaction of devastating crises.
The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 3
• Society and nature are not independent bodies• In terms of refugees there are many drivers. Climate
change is one. • But it is not correct to think as the only driver in the
absence of the other drivers in the system: mode of production, export orientation, urban-biased policies, food production, population growth, instability of governances all affect local population stress and un-sustainability.
• Climate change will not necessarily be the dominant driver of mass migration, but an additional, important stressing factor.
• A estimate of the number of migrants induced by climate change is inevitably vague: all the stressing drivers and feedbacks should be balanced, not just climate change.
• Need of a comprehensive approach to the non-linear and complex interrelations between the various factors.
The basic idea: towards a more integral thinking
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 4
Economic Performance up to 2007: robust and strong
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP
Gro
wth (%
)
World Africa0
5
10
15
20
25
Gro
ss D
omes
tic
Inve
stm
ent/G
DP (%
)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rising Investment underpinning growth
World Africa
Since 2002 Africa growing in tandem with global economic growth
Export growth (high commodity prices) and rising investment main drivers
Exports the main driver of growth
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US$
mill
ion
-10-50510152025
% G
row
th
Export US$mill Export Growth %
Source: African Development Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 5
Growing Integration of Africa into the global economy
Decoupling more limited than previously thought:
• private capital flows rising•the share of trade in GDP increasing•regional debt markets are expanding•more investors interested in African equities
Trade is a growing share of GDP
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
% S
hare
of G
DP
Trade as % of GDP
Remittances a major source of external finance
-
10
20
30
40
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e
US$
Bill
ion
Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Total Africa
Source: African Development Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 6
-5050
150250350450550650750850950
105011501250135014501550165017501850
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 -50
50150250350450550650750850950105011501250135014501550165017501850
External debt, net flowsExports of goods, services and incomeFDI, net inflowsImports of goods, services and incomeODA and official aidWorkers' remittancesGDP (PPP)GDP
Per capita net flows to Sub-Saharan Africa (current $)
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 7
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 -100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
External debt, net flowsExports of goods, services and incomeFDI, net inflowsImports of goods, services and incomeODA and official aidWorkers' remittancesGDP
Per capita net flows to Northern Africa (current $)
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 8
30,327,7
13,7
3,7
12,2
3,82,5
1,10,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
US EU Russia Japan South &East Asia
LatinAmerica
Africa Oceania
Nevertheless... Contribution to Global Warming (% of total)
Source: US Dept. Of Energy
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 9
Source: World Resource Institute
5,60
2,402,72
2,40
0,530,25 0,24
1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
US EU Russia Japan China India Africa Worldaverage
Carbon Emissions per person (tons)
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 10-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
ZimbabweSomalia ??
Guinea- BissauEritrea
Cote d'IvoireGabon
TogoCongo, Dem. Rep.
Central African RepublicBurundiMalawi
SwazilandComoros
SeychellesNiger
MadagascarKenya
LesothoBenin
Gambia, TheGuinea
Congo, Rep.Cameroon
ZambiaMauritania
South AfricaSenegalLiberia
LibyaRwandaNamibiaNigeriaUgandaAlgeriaGhana
Burkina FasoEgypt, Arab Rep.
EthiopiaMali
TanzaniaMorocco
MauritiusCape Verde
TunisiaSierra Leone
SudanBotswana
ChadMozambique
AngolaSao Tome and Principe
Equatorial Guinea19%
Growth 4% or higher
Heterogeneity of GDP annual growth rate (percentage, geometric mean 1997-2006)
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 11
0 010 1020 20
50 50
80 80
30 30
60 60
40 40
70 70South Africa
South Africa
Nigeria
Nigeria
Angola
Angola
Sudan
Sudan
1994-1999 2000-2005
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial GuineaChadTanzania
Tanzania Other AfricancountriesOther Africancountries
FDI to Africa by destination ($ billion)
Source: IFDA Report
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 12
• Polarization, concentration, unequal distribution of benefits and opportunities exacerbated traditional patterns of human mobility.
• From traditional to additional new paths of human mobility.
• 2.1% of African population have migrated out of the continent (almost 16 millions of people).
• Women are 47.9% of immigrants and refugees are 17.4% (just 7.1% at global level).
• Between 9 and 28% of doctors have emigrated• Persistent dichotomy of policies: from “urban bias” to
“back to land” policies.
The Consequences of Growing Integration of Africa
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 13
Within SSA(69%)
To theOECD Area
(27%)
To the non-OECDRich economies
(3%)
10millions
4millions
0,5 millions
Source: World Bank, UN
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest proportion of intra-regional migrations in the world
And 80% of intra-African migration is cross-border
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 14
Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Estimated and Projected Urban and Rural Population of More and Less Developed Population of More and Less Developed
Regions, 1950-2030Regions, 1950-2030
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 15
Components of MigrationComponents of Migration
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 16
The contrast of Sending versus Receiving Countries (when most countries both send and receive migrants)
Permanent versus Temporary Migration (when most “permanent” migrants use to return to their countries or move on to other countries)
Brain Drain/Waste versus Brain Gain (when both are true, with net cost and benefit spread in unequal ways)
High Skilled versus Low Skilled workers (when labor demand/need is oriented to some specific segments of both of them) Also traditional distinction between who is rural and urban is increasingly difficult, especially with the expansion of semi-urban areas where large proportions of populations rely on agricultural activities to meet their livelihood needs
Some misleading dichotomous conceptsSome misleading dichotomous concepts
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 17
• In Africa, 200 million people are in at the ages of 15 to 24 years (i.e. youth), comprising more than 20% of the population (UN2007).
• In 2005, 62% of Africa’s overall population fell below the age of 25. The still very high fertility rate along with a demographic transition that is slowly taking place are likely to increase the pressure African countries face for job creation over the coming decades.
• Worldwide, and in Africa as well, the ratio of the youth-to-adult unemployment rate equals three (ILO 2006), which clearly points out the substantial difficulties of youth participation in the labor market.
• Yet, the youth employment elasticity to GDP growth is low and only a fifth of that observed for all workers (Kapsos 2005).
• And unemployment among youth is often higher than among adults, but those out of the labor force are 2, 3 times higher on average (56% vs 21%)
Youth and labor markets in AfricaYouth and labor markets in Africa
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 18
Marocco
Algeria
Tunisia
LibiaEgitto
SudanEritrea
Gibuti
Somalia
CiadNiger
Nigeria
Rep Cent AfrCamerun
GabonCongo
Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale
Liberia
Ghana
TogoBenin
BurkinaFaso
SierraLeone
Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau
GuineaGambia
Sao Tome ePrincipe
MaliMauritaniaCapo
Verde
Senegal
Saharaoccidentale
Etiopia
UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi
Tanzania
AngolaZambia
ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana
SudafricaLesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambico
Comoros
Seychelles
Reunion
MauritiusMadagascar
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, 3 in 5 of the total unemployed are youth (ILO 2006).
World Bank Survey-Based Harmonized Indicators Program (SHIP): 13 cases
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 19
Marocco
Algeria
Tunisia
LibiaEgitto
SudanEritrea
Gibuti
Somalia
CiadNiger
Nigeria
Rep Cent AfrCamerun
GabonCongo
Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale
Liberia
Ghana
TogoBenin
BurkinaFaso
SierraLeone
Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau
GuineaGambia
Sao Tome ePrincipe
MaliMauritaniaCapo
Verde
Senegal
Saharaoccidentale
Etiopia
UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi
Tanzania
AngolaZambia
ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana
SudafricaLesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambico
Comoros
Seychelles
Reunion
MauritiusMadagascar
85.7%
46.5%
49.1%
70.7%
66.5%54.4%
81.7%75.4%
66.3%
92.9%
68.0% 93.8%
86.3%• According to WB-SHIP, in Sub-Saharan Africa on average 72% of the youth population live with less than $2 a day
Incidence of poverty among young people (< US$ 2 per day, in %)
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 20
Marocco
Algeria
Tunisia
LibiaEgitto
SudanEritrea
Gibuti
Somalia
CiadNiger
Nigeria
Rep Cent AfrCamerun
GabonCongo
Rep Dem CongoGuineaEquatoriale
Liberia
Ghana
TogoBenin
BurkinaFaso
SierraLeone
Costad’AvorioGuinea-Bissau
GuineaGambia
Sao Tome ePrincipe
MaliMauritaniaCapo
Verde
Senegal
Saharaoccidentale
Etiopia
UgandaKenyaRwandaBurundi
Tanzania
AngolaZambia
ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana
SudafricaLesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambico
Comoros
Seychelles
Reunion
MauritiusMadagascar
29.3%
45.6%
50.1%
24.3%
51.0%75.5%
26.6%75.8%
78.4%
71.4%
7.1% 81.4%
54.6%
• According to WB-SHIP (but Ethiopia and Madagascar data based on LF Surveys): mean is 55.3 (for adults is 23.4)
Distribution of youth by job status (in %)Out of the labor force
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 21
Stylized facts of youth migration• As a way to escape poverty, many youth look for better
opportunities by migrating (WB, 2008).• Indeed, migration to urban areas is unavoidable and
even desirable as a way to improve allocation of human resources, especially in land-scarce countries.
• While youth are more likely than older people to move from rural to urban areas or to move across urban areas, this increased youth migration has a wide impact.
• It increases the tension for jobs without necessarily improving the job conditions of those left in rural areas.
• It impacts provision of public goods, education, utilities, housing, and infrastructure.
• It affects demographic and skills composition in both urban and rural areas.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 22
Stylized facts of youth migration• Young male migrants are more likely to be unemployed
and out of the labor force than their non-migrant counterparts (Garcia and Fares 2008).
• Urban residents are less likely to be employed than recent rural-to-urban youth migrants (increased tension).
• However, recent migrants who are employed are more likely to work in insecure jobs. In Ethiopia they are three times more likely to be engaged in informal activities.
• In general: the youth at large comprise a vulnerable group facing challenges in labor markets, but youth attached to agriculture (non-migrants) and female youth face particularly stronger challenges.
• Given that about 70% of the African youth population is still in rural areas, and that urban areas have been very slow to create job opportunities for most new job seekers, there is a need for an integrated urb/rur approach.
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 23
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya Egypt
SudanEritrea
Djibouti
Somalia
ChadNiger
Nigeria
Cent Afr RepCameroon
GabonCongo
Congo Dem RepEquatorialGuinea
Liberia
Ghana
TogoBenin
BurkinaFaso
SierraLeone
Coted’IvoireGuinea-Bissau
GuineaThe Gambia
Sao Tome &Principe
MaliMauritaniaCape
Verde
Senegal
WesternSahara
Ethiopia
UgandaKenya
RwandaBurundi
Tanzania
AngolaZambia
ZimbabweNamibiaBotswana
South AfricaLesotho
Swaziland
Malawi
Mozambique
Comoros
Seychelles
ReunionMauritius
Madagascar
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
C o ltiva z io n i m e d io rie n ta li(g ra n o , o rzo , p ise lli, u v a )
C o ltiv a z io n i e t io p ic h e(c a ff è , te ff )
C o ltiva z io n i o c c id e n ta li(ig n a m e , c o la )
C o ltiva z io n i sa h e lia n e(s o rg o , m ig lio )
C o ltiva z io n i a sia tic h e(ig n a m e e riso a s ia tic o ,
b a n a n e )
agriculture and stockbreeder-led
Sahelian crops (Sorghum, Millet)
Western crops (Igname, Cola)
Asian crops (Igname, Asian rice,
Banana)
Middle Eastern crops (Corn, Barley, Green-pea,
Grapes)
Ethiopian crops (Coffee, Teff)
From traditional paths of human mobility
Source: J. Diamond
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 24
SudanEritreaMali
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Mozambique
I principali corridoiI principali paesi di origineI principali paesi di destinazione
Coted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
Nigeria
I principali paesi di destinazione
Coted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
Nigeria
I principali paesi di destinazione
Coted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaCoted’Ivoire
BurkinaFaso
Ghana Ethiopia
Uganda
TanzaniaCongo Dem Rep
South Africa
NigeriaNigeria
The main corridors
The main countries of originThe main countries of destination
To contemporary corridors of human mobility
urban enclaves, oil/diamonds and mines-led
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 25
Mortality Risks due to drought
Source: World Bank
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 26
• Most of the poor in the world are living in unplanned towns.• 40 of the 50 fastest growing cities are located in earthquake
zones. Another 10 m live under constant threat of floods (P. Brown).• Africa is less densely populated than Asia; nevertheless in some
polarized areas the high density in environmentally threatened territories make them extremely vulnerable.
• Urban growth rates in Africa remain high, at nearly 5% on aggregate, but cities simply cannot keep up with the demands placed upon them (Simone, Abouhani, 2007).
• Cities are the places where Africans have been intensely engaged in the conflicts. Many Africans are urban residents, but they are not truly urbanized.
Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 27
• Across Africa, a new urban infrastructure is being built, but what kind of city and processes are being constructed is not clear:
• Roughly 75% of basic needs are provided informally in the majority of African cities, and the processes of informalization are expanding across sectors and domains.
• The prevailing common approach focused on transition from informality to formal economy: a provocative approach is to examine the ways in which such economies and activities themselves might act as a platform for the creation of a very different kind of sustainable urban configurations
• New agglomerations beyond rural-urban dichotomy
Rethinking urban-rural dichotomy
Marco Zupi (CeSPI)
Slide 28
Exploring the basis for a new approach
• Against risk of UNROOTED and lost of identity and source of tension and conflicts, migration should be an opportunity, degree of freedom
• Against dichotomy of urban vs rural development, need of territorial and social cohesionterritorial and social cohesion as the key approach
• Regional integration is a crucial institutional process to be supported: (1) to overcome the jurisdictional gap (global public goods such as environment and peace), (2) to facilitate human mobility within regions, and (3) integrate bioregions rather than dividing or polarizing them (4) to promote redistribution of benefits of globalization, (5) to promote peace.
• Promotion of sustainability and equity as leading drivers of policies: new frontier of green-technological change, more equal and sustainable distribution and location of factors of production (manpower, capital, land, cities…)