March Economic Update
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Transcript of March Economic Update
Dr. M. Ray Perryman
History
The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) including Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood
• Ranks #5 among all MSAs in Texas in economic strength for four consecutive years(Policom.com)
• 14th fastest growing MSA in the Nation. (US Census Bureau)
• Ranks #1 in affordable housing (Coldwell Banker Home Price Index, 9/26/2007)
• Ranks No. 1 in renter livability (apartmentratings.com)
Current Indicators
Population Trends2000 Base Jan. 2008 Estimate Percent Change 2000-2008
Belton 14,623 16,953 15.90%
Copperas Cove 29,592 32,365 9.40%
Gatesville 15,591 16,223 4.10%
Harker Heights 17,308 25,160 45.40%
Killeen 86,911 112,998 30.00%
Lampasas 6,786 8,031 18.30%
Nolanville 2,150 3,015 40.20%
Temple 54,514 59,796 9.70%
Source: Texas State Data Center
Population Trends
2000 Base Jan. 2008 Estimate Percent Change 2000-2008
Bell County 237,974 277,743 16.70%
Coryell County 74,978 76,757 2.40%
Lampasas County 17,762 21,062 18.60%
Region/MSA 330,714 375,556 13.50%
Texas 20,851,820 24,105,417 15.60%
Source: Texas State Data Center
Unemployment Trends
Jan-09 Jan-08 Difference
Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood MSA 6.5 5.0 +1.5
State of Texas 6.8 4.7 +2.1
United States 8.5 5.4 +3.1
Source: Texas State Data Center
Housing
Months of Inventory…………………………..10
January 2009 Home Sales…………………..136
February 2009 Home Sales……........147 (+8%)
Typical Monthly Volume………………..…….200
Source: Jose Segarra
Housing
January 2009 Avg Price $114,000
February 2009 Avg Price $125,087 (+8%)
2008 Fort Hood Region Avg +2.94%
2008 US Avg -15.0%
Source: Jose Segarra
Killeen Building Permits
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Killeen Retail Sales
Retail Sales increase from $1.3 billion in 2000 to $2.3 Billion in 2007
Sales Tax Revenues2009 Payments 2008 Payments % Change
Belton $810,777 $787,989 2.89%
Copperas Cove $875,659 $884,205 -0.97%
Gatesville $391,035 $391,467 -0.11%
Harker Heights $1,183,491 $838,580 41.13%
Killeen $4,497,345 $5,094,857 -11.73%
Lampasas $325,838 $310,415 4.97%
Nolanville $29,375 $34,633 -15.18%
Temple $3,898,981 $4,088,816 -4.64%
Texas/1133 Cities $1,046,328,600 $1,030,834,183 1.50%
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Sales Tax Revenue – February 2009State of Texas -2.6%
Gulf Coast
Houston +4.5%
Beaumont +58.04%
Sugarland +8.69%
Galveston +15.49%
I35 Corridor
San Antonio -4.61%
Austin -13.82%
Round Rock -23.16%
Georgetown -27.3%
Metroplex
Dallas -10.91%
Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts
Going Forward
Community Strengths• Fort Hood - $10.9 billion annual economic impact.
• Growing population.
• Location.
• Positive business climate.
• Talent, especially the pool of skilled veterans separating from the Army at Fort Hood.
• Strong defense contracting community.
Community Strengths Continued
• Racial/ethnic diversity and integration.
• Growing and affordable housing stock.
• Large inventory of service, retail and dining establishments.
• Central Texas Workforce Center.
• Killeen-Fort Hood Regional Airport.
• New convention center complex.
• Educational institutions.
Growth Opportunities
• Targeted Industrial Clusters
• Retail Sales
• Fort Hood Stabilization, Growth and Diversity
• Texas A&M University – Central Texas
• New Economy
Targeted Industrial Clusters
• Defense
• Healthcare and Bioscience
• Information Technology
• Business Services
• Transportation and Logistics
Retail Sales
2007 Retail Gap Analysis
2007 Retail Gap Analysis
Trade Area Population 226,930
Trade Area Household Income $54,164
Trade Area Per Capita Income $19,202
2007 Retail Gap Analysis
52 Retail Sectors
4 with Sales Surpluses- Mobile Home Sales- Motorcycle Dealers- Hobby, Toy and Game Shops- Misc. Retail Sales
2007 Retail Gap Analysis
Potential Sales $2,402,573,000
Estimated Sales $1,282,000,000 (53%)
Leakage $1,120,572,000 (47%)
Fort HoodStabilization, Growth, and Diversification
• Economic Impact of the Volunteer Army
• Lilly Pad / Shock Absorber Effect
• Medical Center
• Second Runway
Texas A&M University – Central TexasAcademic Economic Impact
Students Annual Impact Employment
1,000 $14.2 million 258
2,500 $37.2 million 677
3,500 $54.8 million 933
6,500 $106.5 million 1926
Texas A&M University – Central TexasResearch and Development Impact
• Technology Research Center
• Emerging Technologies– Healthcare– Defense
• Commercialization
New Economy
New Economy
•Manufacturing/Goods to Service/Knowledge
New Economy
•Place – Talent – Innovation are Linked
New Economy
•Military Communities Have access to Talent
New Economy
•Talent will populate, attract and create companies
New Economy
•Talent is Mobile
New Economy
•Talent will reside where it can live first, work second
New Economy
•Quality of Place is important
New Economy: Summary•Manufacturing/Goods to Service/Knowledge
•Place-Talent-Innovation are Linked
•Military Communities have access to talent
•Talent will populate, attract and create companies
•Talent is mobile
•Talent will reside where it can live first, work second
•Quality of Place is important
Place Design
Characteristics of Place Design
• Authenticity• Access to technology• Horizontal career paths• Immigration• Low barriers to entry• Diversity• Tolerance• Lifestyle opportunities