Strathcona County Update March 2012

“The New Numbers”

Gerry GabinetJordan RumohrRandy RichardsEconomic Development & TourismStrathcona County

Agenda

Stats Canada Update

Housing Update

Retail Market Update

Industrial Market Updates

NE Anthony Henday Plans

Alberta Industrial Heartland Updates

Summary

Stats Canada Update Feb. 2012

Canada 5.9%

Alberta 10.8%

Edmonton 11.2%

Calgary 10.9%

Strathcona 12.1%

Edmonton CMA 11.8%

Calgary CMA 12.9%

Strathcona 92,490

Sherwood Park 64,733

Rural 27,757

Growth 9,979

Urban 13.9%

Rural 8.2%

Total 12.1%

Since 2006

Yellowhead County

Lethbridge County

CMA Growth

Alberta leads job growth

Quick Alberta Facts

Trade with U.S. from Alberta is $1.0 trillion per year

BRIC Trade in U.S.

Trade with Alberta is greater than U.S. trade with India

Trade with Alberta is twice as much as U.S. trade with Russia

Trade with Alberta is greater than U.S trade with Brazil

Alberta Building Permits

Total Building Permit ValuesTotal Building Permit Values to December 31

-

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 4Year

Year

Valu

es

4 Year Avg. 6 Year Avg.

Total Housing Unit StartsTotal Housing Unit Starts to December 31

329

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 4Year

Year

Star

ts

4 Year Avg. 6 Year Avg.

January 7, 201016

Residential Construction Activity

Sherwood Park Residential Construction Activity Year to Year Comparison to November 30th,2011

241

136

389

61

35

393

490

434

152

329

215

70

29

396

186

295

376

226

133

219

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Single Family Starts

Multi Family Starts

Single Family Completions

Multi Family Completions

Single Family Under Construction

Multi Family Under Construction

SFD Complete and Unabsorbed

Multi Complete and Unabsorbed

SFD Absorbed

Multi Absorbed

Number of Units

2010

2011

Average Apartment \ Townhouse Rent

Greater Edmonton Average Rents Apartments and Townhomes

927

985

1024

921

1051

943

1023

987

949

1075

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

Downto

wn

West End

Souths

ide

North S

ide

St. Albe

rt

Fort.Sas

k

Ledu

cSpru

ce G

rove

Stony P

lain

Strathc

ona C

ounty

Location

Avg

. Mon

thly

Ren

t

2010

2011

Residential Rental Vacancy Rates

Residential Rental Vacancy Rates

3.23.7

1.3

4.7

0.4

12.8

1.3

2.4

8.1

2.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Downto

wn

West

End

Souths

ide

North

Side

St. Albe

rt

Fort.S

ask

Ledu

cSpr

uce G

rove

Stony P

lain

Strathc

ona C

ounty

Location

Vaca

ncy

%

2010

2011

Edmonton Suburban Rental Market Edmonton Suburban Rental Universe

651 607

869790

401 385

83284

180

70

34

234

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

St. Albert Fort.Sask Leduc Spruce Grove Stony Plain StrathconaCounty

Location

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

Tow nhomes

Apt. Suites

Sherwood Park is in top 10 Housing price in Canada

>300k, 14

300,000 to 399,999, 19

500,000 to 599,999, 72

600,000 to 699,999, 30

>700000, 43

400,000 to 499,999, 111

2010 2011Bungalow 42 48Split Level 14 30Two Storey 213 207Other 5 4

New Home Sales

Strathallen Redevelopment

Broadmoor Base

line

Millennium Ridge

Lakeland Drive

90 room Best Western Hotel starting construction East of Millenium Ridge

New office complex under construction in Pallisades

Gas Bar under consideration, details in progress

Residential subdivision east of Sherwood Drive

Lakeland Drive

Emerald Hills – Full Build out 15,000 around 2017

Concept Plan

Confirmed Retail Emerald

Golf Town

Visions

Bed Bath Beyond

Winners

Super Wal Mart

Bouclair

Petsmart

Dollarama

Liquor Depot

Tony Romas

Existing Wal-mart on Wye

It will remain

It will get an internal and external upgrade

No expansions have been proposed

Permits issued

LUBEX on Ordze and Wye

Concept Plans:

Co op Gas Station

Tim Horton’s

RBC

CIBC

Subway

Sobeys 2012

Emerald HillsRetail

Sherwood Park Mall

Zellers to convert to TARGET

Present timeline by TARGET is spring 2013

Conversion \ construction period starts late Q4-2012

All Alberta stores to open the same day

The Ridge – Wye Road

•8,800 Square feet Retail bays

•Convenience Store

•Gas Bar

•Near Completion

First Capital Projects: Wye Road

Starbucks, Quizznos

New Developments July 2011

Transit Station 2012

Strathcona Community Hospital

Construction Schedule

Fit-Out starts Fall 2011

Estimated completion, turnover late 2012, projected opening 2013

Hospital is (LEED) Silver Certification

Thomas Consulting Retail Market Study

Laurin Industrial AreaList pricing from $375,000 per acre to $525,000 per acre

NE Anthony Henday Planning• Eight interchanges

• Nine Flyovers

• Two River Structures

• 47 Total Bridge Structures

Expansion One

Shell Chemicals

Shell RefineryShell Upgrader

Construction storage

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

/Day

Non upg

raded 

bitumen

Synthetic C

rude 

Oil (SCO)

Pentanes plusHeavy

Light‐medium

Future Oil Production

Bitumen Upgraded in Alberta (%)

Upgrading Project Estimates

Estimates on additions to upgrading capacity are based on the following assumptions regarding new projects or expansions to existing projects by 2030.

New Upgraders

North West Upgrading 150,000 bbl/day (new)

Voyageur 200,000 bbl/day (new)

Expansions/Debottlenecking (*)

Syncrude 100,000 bbl/day

Suncor 100,000 bbl/day

CNRL 100,000 bbl/day

Shell Scotford 85,000 bbl/day

Nexen/OPTI 50,000 bbl/day

(*) Notes increase in upgrading capacity beyond existing levels

Oil Sands SAGD Facts

Initial Investment=$2.27 Billion

Name Plate capacity=62,000 bdp

Construction phase= 3 years

Construction employment=1,375 persons

First year operation=2012

Operation ramp up =20%,50%, 75%, 90%

Operation employment=125 persons

Operational phase=30 years

Sustaining capital=$38 million per year

Cumulative royalties=$21.1 billion

Corporate taxes paid=$8.52 billionSource CERI Study 2011

Oilsands Mining and Extraction Project

Initial Investment=$7.98 billion

Capacity 100,000 bpd

Construction phase 3-4 years

Construction manpower 3,800

Operational manpower 600

Operational phase= 30 years

Sustaining capital=$269 million per year

Cumulative royalties=$32.8 billion

Corporate taxes paid=$10.7 billionSource: Ceri Study 2011

Oilsands Upgrader/Refinery

Initial Investment $5 Billion (100,000bpd) $15 Billion for three phases

Capacity 100,000 bpd

Construction phase 2.5-3 years phase 1

Construction employment 8,000 phase 1

Operational employment 250

Operational life initial 30 years

Operating cost $x/barrel of production

World Economic Trends

1. Eurozone problems need to be addressed2. Commodities Super cycle is back3. Currency war rages4. Global Monetary Policy gap to remain.5. Deficit and debt cutting.

“There's a fundamental truth that everyone has to understand: what the government spends, the public will pay for sooner or later, whether in

taxes or inflation or having their debt defaulted on”

Nobel Economist -Thomas Sargent

Conclusion

1. Strong growth in Alberta for 2012 3.5% - In Strathcona County estimate of 3.0%

2. Price of oil in $95-$100 USD3. Housing starts of 3504. Average house price $425,0005. New retail market growth of over 300,000

sq.ft6. Labor shortage for first half 2012

“Maintain a firm grasp of the obvious at all times”

Jeff Bezos - Amazon

For more information, please contact:

Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism gerald.gabinet@strathcona.ca

Randy Richards, Manager Commercial Development randy.richards@strathcona.ca

Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development jordan.rumohr@strathcona.ca

Sources of Information:

Chamber, EDT, Corporate Planning

RBC, Scotia Bank, ATB, CIBC, BMO, Servus, TD Canada Trust, City of Calgary, Wells Fargo Economics, ATB Economics, Alberta Industrial Heartland, Government of Alberta Treasury and Enterprise, US Consulate General Office, ESNA, CERI

Conference Board of Canada, CMHC, Colliers, Cushman Wakefield, Trans America, Strathcona Commercial, Corporate Planning, Lorenz Team, ERB, RPC, EEDC

All of the EDT Team including: Rhonda Deighton, Marcy Fischer, Noreen Robertson, Tyler Westover, Michael Liu

Thank you for your attention!