Map Set 4: Impact on Air Emissions - Home | CNA · Air Emissions Maps . This map set includes...
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The Potential Environmental Impacts of Full Development of the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania Sep 2016
IRM-2016-U-013695
Map Set 4: Impact on Air Emissions This series of maps displays information related to the potential environmental impacts of additional gas development in Pennsylvania if all remaining technically
recoverable resources in the Interior Marcellus shale were developed using high volume hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling with eight wells per well pad.
This map set includes projections of air emissions of Nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile
organic compounds (VOCs), and methane (CH4) associated with activities associated
with pre-production, production, and compression and transport during the gas development process. (The activities only include those that support the well drilling, fracturing, production, and compression processes up to when produced gas is delivered through the gathering line to the larger gas transmission network. Emissions associated with transmission pipelines and delivery of gas to customers are not included.) These estimates are presented as the highest annual average emissions in tons per year for the combination of these activities (i.e. when ongoing emissions from producing wells peak), assuming a constant development rate over 30 years. The emissions estimates are aggregated by county and compared to 2014 natural gas sector emissions reported to the PA Department of Environmental Protection.
Note: These maps contain projections of natural gas development and associated impacts under a particular set of circumstances and assumptions. Changes to the assumptions could change the results. They are not predictions of development or impacts, and should not be used for commercial purposes, to guide investment decisions, or for short-range planning decisions. Furthermore, the maps should not be used to inform planning or decision making for geographic units smaller than the primary units of analysis (counties or HUC-10 watersheds).
Air Emissions Maps
This map set includes projections of the following air emissions impacts:
4.1 NOx emissions from projected development
4.2 VOC emissions from projected development
4.3 Methane emissions from projected development
For additional documentation and methodology used to create these maps, as well as discussion of results, please download the research report at: www.cna.org/PA-Marcellus
O hi o
O hi o
N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k
W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d
N e w J
e rs e
y
N e w J
e rs e
y
D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e
66
947947
441441 210210
657657
191191
1,7011,701 1313
2,6012,601
1,9831,983
1,5261,5261,7501,750
8989
1,9511,951698698
9191
1,1191,119
2,8662,866
1,7371,737
1,4091,409
2,0092,009
1,2531,253
1,2611,261
2482481,1901,190
1,8481,848
648648
1,7591,759
482482
1,0751,075
306306
1,1061,106
628628
508508
1,3861,386
Elk
TiogaPotter
CentreButler
Bradford
Pike
Bedford
Clinton
Lycoming
Blair
Clearfield
Luzerne
Somerset
McKean
Indiana
Fayette
Wayne
Clarion
Cambria
Greene
Forest
Jefferson
Venango
Allegheny
Westmoreland
Beaver
Susquehanna
Sullivan
Washington
Armstrong
Columbia
WyomingCameronLackawanna
Annual NOx Emissions by County
Yearly NOx (tons/yr)
2,000
NOx_2014FinalYr_NOx
% of 2014 NOx EmissionsNo development (32)< 50% (2)51% - 100% (3)101% - 250% (7)251% - 500% (4)> 501% (14)New development (5)
This map shows the annual NOx emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination ofNOx emissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector NOx emissions by county.
Marcellus Formation Extent
Interior MarcellusBoundary
0 40 8020Miles
Map 4.1 - NOx Emissions from Projected Development
Statewide Impact - NOx Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:
21,662 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)37,048 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)
Projected2014 data
(labels show projected)
NOx = Nitrogen oxides
O hi o
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N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k
W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d
N e w J
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y
N e w J
e rs e
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D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e
Elk
Tioga
Potter
CentreButler
Bradford
Pike
Bedford
ClintonLycoming
Blair
Clearfield
Luzerne
Somerset
McKean
Indiana
Fayette
Wayne
Clarion
Cambria
Greene
Forest
Washington
Jefferson
Venango
Allegheny
Westmoreland
ArmstrongBeaver
Susquehanna
SullivanWyoming
Columbia
Cameron Lackawanna4488
934934
350350
322322 131131
403403
119119842842
1,0541,054997997
782782
908908
1,3901,390
1,2131,213
811811
1,1071,107
5555
1,2431,243 477477
689689
6363
750750
1,5521,552
854854
1,2181,218
1,2331,233
154154
1,1521,152
404404
1,1191,119
262262
213213
377377317317
Annual VOC Emissions by CountyYearly VOC (tons/yr)
790
VOC (2014)Projected
% of 2014 VOC EmissionsNo development (32)< 50% (1)51% - 100% (2)101% - 250% (2)251% - 500% (5)> 501% (19)New development (6)
This map shows the annual VOC emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination ofVOCemissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector VOC emissions by county.
Marcellus Formation Extent Interior Marcellus
Boundary
0 40 8020Miles
Map 4.2 - Annual VOC Emissions from Projected Development
Statewide Impact - VOC Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:
6,388 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)22,527 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)
(labels show projected)
VOC = Volatile Organic Compounds
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N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k
W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d
N e w J
e rs e
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N e w J
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y
D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e
Elk
Tioga
Potter
CentreButler
Bradford
Pike
Bedford
ClintonLycoming
Blair
Clearfield
Luzerne
Somerset
McKean
Indiana
Fayette
Wayne
Clarion
Cambria
Greene
Forest
Washington
Jefferson
Venango
Allegheny
Westmoreland
ArmstrongBeaver
Susquehanna
SullivanWyoming
Columbia
Cameron Lackawanna4545
4,6294,629
4,2814,281
17,61017,610
1,8131,813
4,7544,754 22,42322,423
16,00816,008
14,58814,588
1,6481,6489,4769,476
14,16214,162
16,96816,968
110110
8,9118,911 613613
20,31020,310
6,4196,41916,31616,316
13,43313,433
26,63226,632
751751 15,98415,984
2,1422,142
5,6035,603
2,8632,863
10,02210,022
9,1009,100
10,57310,573
9,4549,454
14,55214,552
11,35411,354
3,3743,3747,2547,254
3,5083,508
Annual Methane (CH4) Emissions by CountyYearly CH4 (tons/yr)
13,000
CH4 (2014)Projected
% of 2014 CH4 emissionsNo development (32)< 50% (1)51% - 100% (1)101% - 250% (7)251% - 500% (3)> 501% (17)New development (6)
This map shows the annual CH4 emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination of CH4emissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector CH4 emissions by county.
Marcellus Formation Extent Interior Marcellus
Boundary
0 40 8020Miles
Map 4.3 - Annual CH4 Emissions from Projected Development
Statewide Impact - CH4 Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:
107,492 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)387,685 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)
(labels show projected)