MANHATTAN · 2019-04-11 · 2 NOTE FROM THE PRESIDENT New York City is the most vibrant and...

1

MANHATTAN MARKET REPORT

1st Quarter 2019

RESALE

bhhsnyp.com

2

NOTE FROM THE PRESIDENT

New York City is the most vibrant and exciting place to live and work. This first quarter of 2019, brought us Hudson Yards, an anticipated project consisting of cultural arts space, such as the Vessel, a new landmark structure, comprised of 154 intricately interconnecting flights of stairs with 80 landings, offering remarkable views of the city and the Hudson River. Not to mention The Shed, which will house emerging artists from all over the world, ranging from hip hop, classical music, theater, literature and dance performances, to name a few; all under one roof. In addition Hudson Yards also offers parks, residential and rental properties, office buildings, retail stores, restaurants and more; forever changing the landscape of the West Side. For your convenience, below is the link to obtain tickets to visit these magnificent new monuments: https://theshed.org/program and https://tickets.hudsonyardsnewyork.com/

On to the statistics - Since the second quarter of 2018, inventory in the Manhattan Condo, Co-op and Townhouse markets has declined steadily. That trend was reversed in the first quarter of 2019, as each market segment saw a 48% increase on listing inventory over the previous

quarter; representing increases over the previous year. Median list prices were up from the previous quarter, albeit more modestly.

The additional inventory allowed for a positive first quarter of 2019 on signed contracts. 25% in Condos, as compared to last quarter; 2% in Co-ops and 6% in Townhouses. However, the increase in contracts signed, had little immediate impact on sale prices, as median sale prices in the Condo and Co-op segments remained relatively stable. And the Townhouse segment, with a smaller sample size, experienced the most volatility, with a 15% decrease in median sale price.

Prominent sales for this first quarter include a full-floor cooperative unit at 778 Park Avenue for $27,000,000, which was the highest sale in the Co-op market segment and the record sale at 220 Central Park South for $238,000,000, reported to have set the record for most expensive home sale in the U.S. Followed by an additional 9 sales; representing 69% of the top condominium sales of the first quarter. And lastly, the sale at 9 West 54th Street, a 50-foot wide 5-story mansion, with a recorded sales price of $55,000,000.

Overall the first quarter indicates an increase in listings to levels resembling the second quarter of 2018, which preceded a decline during the second half of last year. This resulted in more contracts signed across all segments. Median sale prices remained relatively stable from the prior quarter. A continued, long-term trend toward greater inventory could result in declining prices; however, statistics from the previous several quarters indicate recent stability and suggest more of the same for the immediate future across the Manhattan Condo, Co-op and Townhouse market segments.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties212.710.1900590 Madison AvenueNew York, New York 10022

Ellie Johnson | [email protected]

3

MAJOR MARKET PERFORMANCEmedian closed sales price and year over year comparison

Q1 2019 Market Report MANHATTAN

Midtown

Condo $1,175,000 s 9.2%

Co-op $667,500 s 2.6%

Townhouse $4,400,000 s 43%

Upper East Side

Condo $1,340,000 s 22.5%

Co-op $1,035,000 s 0.2%

Townhouse $13,487,500 r 19%

Upper Manhattan

Condo $910,000 r 18.6%

Co-op $545,000 r 4.8%

Townhouse $2,525,000 r 29%

Upper West Side

Condo $1,700,000 r 23.2%

Co-op $1,060,600 r 6.6%

Townhouse $8,100,000 s 44%

Downtown

Condo $1,800,000 -- 0.0%

Co-op $899,000 s 4.4%

Townhouse $5,775,500 s 40%

4

MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPE

CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

NEW LISTINGS

The First Quarter of 2019 saw a reversal of the trend of decreased total listings in the Condo, Co-op and Townhouse markets. Each segment had at least 48% more listings than the previous quarter and all segments had more listings than the previous year. Median list prices were also up in each category from the previous quarter, albeit slightly. Aside from the number of new listings, most metrics showed modest increases from the previous quarter, as well as year-over-year. The Townhouse segment showed more volatility due to a smaller sample size.

METRIC Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 QoQ% YoY%

Average Listed Price $3,135,074 $3,010,447 $2,769,513 4.14% 13.20%

Median Listed Price $1,825,000 $1,750,000 $1,700,000 4.29% 7.35%

Average SF 1,456 1,432 1,406 1.67% 3.61%

Average PPSF $1,852 $1,836 $1,800 0.86% 2.88%

# of New Listings 1,518 974 1,195 55.85% 27.03%


Average Listed Price $1,630,058 $1,627,970 $1,726,983 0.13% -5.61%

Median Listed Price $950,000 $912,500 $925,000 4.11% 2.70%

Average SF 1,304 1,248 1,253 4.50% 4.07%

Average PPSF $1,155 $1,464 $1,208 -21.15% -4.38%

# of New Listings 1,748 1,177 1,634 48.51% 6.98%


Average Listed Price $10,115,307 $10,304,212 $10,370,154 -1.83% -2.46%

Median Listed Price $7,000,000 $5,500,000 $7,225,000 27.27% -3.11%

Average SF 5,756 6,317 5,579 -8.88% 3.17%

Average PPSF $1,584 $1,562 $1,826 1.37% -13.28%

# of New Listings 117 77 106 51.95% 10.38%

% year over year

Median Listed Price

Median Listed Price

Median Listed Price

# of New Listings

# of New Listings

# of New Listings

7.35%

2.70%

3.11%

27.03%

6.98%

10.38%


5

MARKET SNAPSHOT BY TYPEMEDIAN LISTED PRICE BY TYPE

NEW LISTINGS

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS BY TYPE

• The Condo, Co-op and Townhouse markets all continued the trend of slightly fluctuating median list prices, which has been consistent over the last 12 months. Although the variation has been minor, in March 2019, the Condo and Co-op segments had the highest median list price in nearly a year. The Co-op segment had the lowest median list price in more than a year. The townhouse segment was the highest in five months.

TOWNHOUSE

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE


CO-OP

CONDO

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

$1.4M

$1.6M

$1.8M

$2.0M

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9

$3.0M

$4.0M

$5.0M

$6.0M

$7.0M

$8.0M

$9.0M

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

CONDO

• The number of new listings increased in each segment since the previous quarter. In fact, all three segments had the most new listings in March 2019 in at least six months.

6


CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CONTRACTS SIGNED

% year over year

With an increase in listings in the first quarter, the Condo, Co-op and Townhouse segments all had more contracts signed than the previous quarter. The Condo segment had 112 more contracts signed than the previous quarter. Average and median last list prices, as well as days on the market, all increased, as well. The March 2019 median last list price and total contracts signed were the highest in more than a year in this segment.


Average Last Listed Price $2,594,294 $2,257,888 $2,418,049 14.90% 7.29%

Median Last Listed Price $1,595,000 $1,497,500 $1,500,000 6.51% 6.33%

Listing Discount* -10.79% -8.43% -7.87% - -Median PPSF $1,619 $1,538 $1,582 5.32% 2.39%

# of Contracts 552 440 481 25.45% 14.76%

Average DOM 132 106 110 24.30% 20.29%

% year over yearMedian LastListed Price

# of Contracts

6.33%

14.76%22 daysAverage DOM

% year over year

% year over year

The Co-op market saw a more modest increase in the number of contracts signed in the first quarter of approximately 2% over the previous quarter, and 4% over the previous year. The median last list price of $850,000 was identical to the previous quarter and the first quarter of 2018. The 111 days on the market was the highest quarterly figure in a year.

The Townhouse segment showed the significant increases over the previous quarter across the board. There were 6% more contracts signed and average and median last list prices were up more than 40%.

# of Contracts

# of Contracts

0.00%

57.16%

4.06%

5.56%

15 days

15 days

Average DOM

Average DOM


* Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on last asking price of a listing once it goes into contract relative to original asking price.


Average Last Listed Price $1,400,252 $1,352,104 $1,429,220 3.56% -2.03%

Median Last Listed Price $850,000 $850,000 $850,000 0.00% 0.00%

Listing Discount* -5.50% -4.53% -5.83% - -Median PPSF $1,033 $1,030 $1,094 0.29% -5.52%

# of Contracts 923 906 887 1.88% 4.06%

Average DOM 111 97 96 14.60% 15.97%


Average Last Listed Price $9,441,558 $6,671,703 $6,565,588 41.52% 43.80%

Median Last Listed Price $7,850,000 $5,375,000 $4,995,000 46.05% 57.16%

Listing Discount* -13.29% -10.64% -3.46% -- --

Median PPSF $1,740 $1,683 $1,315 3.42% 32.37%

# of Contracts 34 32 36 6.25% -5.56%

Average DOM 186 158 171 17.13% 8.32%

Median LastListed Price

Median LastListed Price

7


CONTRACTS SIGNED

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE BY TYPE

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS & MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

TOWNHOUSE

• As is typical for the Townhouse segment, there was more volatility due to this segment’s smaller sample size.

CONDO, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

CONDO, MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

CO-OP, NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

NUMBER OF CONTRACTS

MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE


CO-OP, MEDIAN LAST LISTED PRICE

CONDO

CO-OP

$0.0M

$0.2M

$0.4M

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8Ap

ril 2

018

May

201

8Ju

ne 2

018

July

201

8Au

g 20

18Se

pt 2

018

Oct

201

8N

ov 2

018

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9 Med

ian

Last

List

ed P

rice

Num

ber

of C

ontr

acts

$0.0M

$0.5M

$1.0M

$1.5M

$2.0M

0

100

200

300

Med

ian

Last

List

ed P

rice

Num

ber

of C

ontr

acts

$0.0M

$2.0M

$4.0M

$6.0M

$8.0M

$10.0M

$12.0M

$14.0M

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9

Med

ian

Last

List

ed P

rice

Num

ber

of C

ontr

acts

• The Condo and Co-op segments saw increases each month of the first quarter in number of contracts signed. Both segments had the most contracts signed in March 2019 in at least 9 months. Condo median last list prices rose each month, as well, while Co-op median last list prices fluctuated slightly.

8

MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM

CONTRACTS SIGNED

% NUMBER OF CONTRACTS BY PRICE• The majority of contracts signed in the

first quarter of 2019 occurred in the $500K - $1M range, which is consistent with statistics from the previous four quarters. In that period, the percentage of contracts signed in this price sector ranged from approximately 34% to 38%. Statistics in the other price sectors also remained stable, with 26% of contracts signed in the $1M - $2M range and 11% in the <$500k range.

PRICE RANGE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018

<$500K 11% 10.2% 10.6%

$500K-1M 33.9% 36.1% 36.1%

$1M-2M 25.6% 24.9% 26.1%

$2M-3M 9.9% 10.6% 9.2%

$3M-5M 6.9% 7.6% 6.6%

$5M-10M 4.6% 3.3% 4.8%

$10M-20M 1.4% 0.6% 1.2%

$20M+ 0.7% 0.4% 0.5%

CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: CONDO

CONTACTS SIGNED BY BEDROOM: CO-OP


BEDROOMS METRIC Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 Q2 2018 Q1 2018 QoQ% YoY%

1 bedroom Median Last List Price $998,000 $999,000 $1,087,500 $1,082,500 $1,035,000 -0.10% -3.57%

% Market Share 34.8% 38.2% 36% 32.7% 32.2% -0.62% 7.94%

2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $1,895,000 $1,925,000 $1,785,000 $2,150,000 $1,850,000 -1.56% 2.43%

% Market Share 35.3% 34.5% 34.4% 32.4% 36.6% 2.39% -3.46%

3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,995,000 $3,350,000 $3,950,000 16.67% -11.39%

% Market Share 17.9% 15.2% 12.3% 18.1% 15.2% 17.99% 18.17%

4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $5,500,000 $5,597,500 $4,975,000 $6,950,000 $8,750,000 -1.74% -37.14%

% Market Share 6.5% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2% 10.54% 4.57%


1 bedroom Median Last List Price $699,000 $699,000 $699,000 $749,000 $700,000 0.00% -0.14%

% Market Share 39.1% 38.2% 38.3% 36.5% 40.0% 26.54% -2.31%

2 bedrooms Median Last List Price $1,295,000 $1,299,000 $1,299,000 $1,375,000 $1,395,000 -0.31% -7.17%

% Market Share 28.4% 30.9% 27.4% 30.0% 28.7% -8.16% -1.28%

3 bedrooms Median Last List Price $2,367,500 $2,250,000 $2,275,000 $2,795,000 $2,499,999 5.22% -5.30%

% Market Share 12.6% 12.0% 13.3% 13.1% 11.6% 4.73% 8.22%

4+ bedrooms Median Last List Price $4,574,500 $3,264,000 $4,450,000 $4,595,000 $4,450,000 40.15% 2.80%

% Market Share 3.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 3.8% -4.88% 1.74%

9


CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CLOSED SALES

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 QoQ% YoY%

Average Sales Price $2,100,078 $2,016,663 $2,177,361 4.14% -3.55%

Median Sales Price $1,375,000 $1,400,000 $1,405,000 -1.79% -2.14%

Listing Discount* -9.19% -8.17% -7.68% - -Median PPSF $1,423 $1,431 $1,461 -0.54% -2.62%

Average DOM 113 112 115 0.93% -1.31%

% year over year

Median Sales Price 2.14%

2 dayAverage DOM


Average Sales Price $1,375,626 $1,246,667 $1,363,028 10.34% 0.92%

Median Sales Price $830,000 $780,000 $807,000 6.41% 2.85%

Listing Discount* -6.73% -6.30% -4.11% - -Median PPSF $961 $980 $1,023 -1.93% -6.02%

Average DOM 97 94 81 3.51% 20.67%

Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the Condo segment saw a slight increase in average close price of 4% and a modest decrease in median close price of 2%. Both metrics were lower than the first quarter of 2018. The Co-op segment increased in the first quarter of 2019 in average median close price, both over the previous quarter and year. Both the Condo and Co-op segments showed only minor fluctuation in average and median close prices over the last four quarters.

Townhouse close prices showed greater fluctuation, showing no clear trends as a result of a smaller sample size.



20 daysAverage DOM


Average Sales Price $6,863,522 $5,758,250 $8,752,556 19.19% -21.58%

Median Sales Price $4,800,000 $5,683,750 $7,287,500 -15.55% -34.13%

Listing Discount* -13.14% -11.96% -12.87% - -

Median PPSF $1,527 $1,147 $1,222 33.17% 24.96%

Average DOM 178 138 140 29.05% 27.62%


Average DOM

* Note: Listing Discount (also known as Listing Premium) calculated based on closed sales price relative to original asking price.

28 days

10


CLOSED SALES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET OF CLOSED LISTINGS BY TYPE


MEDIAN CLOSED SALES PRICE BY TYPE

CO-OP

CONDO

TOWNHOUSE

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

$1.4M

$1.6M

$1.8M

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

Apr 2

018

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9 $1.0M

$2.0M

$3.0M

$4.0M

$5.0M

$6.0M

$7.0M

$8.0M

Jan

2018

Feb

2018

Mar

201

8

April

201

8

May

201

8

June

201

8

July

201

8

Aug

2018

Sept

201

8

Oct

201

8

Nov

201

8

Dec

2018

Jan

2019

Feb

2019

Mar

201

9

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MARKET SNAPSHOT BY PRICE AND BEDROOM

CLOSED SALES

% NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES BY PRICE • The distribution of closed sales among price intervals remained largely unchanged from previous quarters. The $500K - $1M price point remains the most active, with approximately 37% of the market share. Likewise, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units were most popular in both the Condo and Co-op markets.

PRICE RANGE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018

<$500K 14.3% 14.8% 13.3%

$500K-1M 37.1% 39.8% 38.4%

$1M-2M 26.4% 24.6% 26.5%

$2M-3M 10.7% 9.2% 10.1%

$3M-5M 7.4% 6.8% 6.3%

$5M-10M 2.8% 3.9% 3.5%

$10M-20M 0.8% 0.8% 1.8%

$20M+ 0.5% 0.0% 0.2%


1 bedroom Median Price $975,000 $1,020,000 $995,000 $1,024,375 $999,999 -4.41% -2.40%

% of Market Share 35.3% 35.9% 35.8% 33.3% 37.9% -1.58% -6.87%

2 bedrooms Median Price $1,737,500 $1,735,000 $1,975,000 $1,895,000 $1,883,500 0.14% -7.75%

% of Market Share 35.1% 33.2% 32.3% 35.9% 34.6% 5.81% 1.45%


% of Market Share 16.1% 14.7% 15.7% 15.3% 14.2% 9.25% 13.41%

4+ bedrooms Median Price $4,800,000 $5,000,000 $5,425,000 $5,400,000 $5,850,000 -4.00% -17.95%

% of Market Share 5.8% 5.9% 5.3% 5.4% 4.2% -1.67% 37.79%

CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: CONDO


1 bedroom Median Price $680,000 $699,000 $715,000 $700,000 $699,000 -2.72% -2.72%

% of Market Share 31.1% 30.8% 31.8% 30.8% 30.5% 0.94% 2.17%


% of Market Share 23.2% 22% 25.1% 21.6% 24.5% 5.63% -5.06%

3 bedrooms Median Price $2,062,500 $2,250,000 $2,330,000 $2,413,125 $2,050,000 -8.33% 0.61%

% of Market Share 9.1% 9.5% 9.5% 9.8% 8.3% -3.20% 10.32%

4+ bedrooms Median Price $2,900,000 $4,335,000 $3,795,000 $4,161,475 $3,525,000 -33.10% -17.73%

% of Market Share 3.6% 2.7% 3.2% 3% 3.5% 31.41% 1.62%

CLOSED SALES BY BEDROOM: CO-OP


• The median sale price of 1-bedroom Condos and Co-ops decreased since the last quarter. The median price of 2-bedroom Condos remained stable, while the price of 3-bedroom units increased 3% and larger units decreased 4%. For Co-ops, 2-bedroom units saw a significant increase in median sale price of 11%. The median price of 3-bedroom units and larger declined a minimum of 8%.

12

PRICE NEGOTIABILITY*

CONDO

CO-OP

TOWNHOUSE

CLOSED SALES

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018

Above Ask 5.57% 8.82% 8.74%

At Ask 2.57% 4.41% 5.07%

Below Ask 91.86% 86.76% 86.19%

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018

Above Ask 11.40% 11.40% 21.56%

At Ask 9.59% 8.24% 12.73%

Below Ask 79.01% 80.36% 65.71%

CLOSED PRICE Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2018

Above Ask 11.54% 7.69% 0.00%

At Ask 0.00% 3.85% 2.94%

Below Ask 88.46% 88.46% 97.06%

The increase in inventory created greater negotiability in the Condo segment. 92% of sales were below ask in the first quarter of 2019, compared with only 87% the previous quarter. This was the highest percentage of below ask sales in at least a year. 5.5% of sales were above ask, a decrease from the 9% in the previous quarter.

The increase in listings had virtually no effect on negotiability in the Co-op segment. Below ask sales remained at approximately 80% in the first quarter of 2019, with at ask and above ask ratios also stable.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, 88% of Townhouses sold below ask, and this number remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2019. The 11.5% of above ask sales was the highest for this segment in at least a year.


*% of closed sales prices above, at, and below original asking price

13

METHODOLOGY& DISCLAIMERS

• This report was produced and authored by Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties in partnership with Perchwell and Vanderbilt Appraisal Company, LLC. Project point of contact: Marketing Department, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New York Properties

• Data sources: Perchwell, RLS, Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS), New York City public data and proprietary sources between January 1st 2019 and March 31st 2019.

• Market indicator definitions:

• New Listings – The inventory that has come to market within the quarter, based on listing date. This provides for the highest level of accuracy when we consider new market supply. We examine the volume of listings brought to market each specific quarter.

• Contracts Signed – The most-timely market demand indicator by reflecting buyers’ willingness to buy, market conditions and price. As contract price is not required at time of contract signed status reporting, contract signed prices are based on last listed price.

• Closed Sales – Not all contracts reach the closing stage; thus, closed sales represent the net market demand at the final closing price. Closed data then becomes the most accurate price negotiability indicator.

• This report is based on market-wide Manhattan data for condo, co-op and townhouse resales. New development data is excluded.

• Sales price definitions:

• New listing/inventory prices are based on original listed price

• Contract signed prices are based on last listed price

• Closed sales prices are based on the reported closing price

• The average days on market for both contract signed listings and closed sales represent the number of days from the first listed date to the contract date.

• The number of closed sales for Q1 2019 reflects all closed sales data available in ACRIS as of April 2nd 2019 and has not been adjusted as there is a shortened lag period in our report due to exclusive direct ACRIS access.

• Information is based in whole or part on residential property transactions and is being provided “as is.” Data may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

bhhsnyp.com

© 2019 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently operated subsidiary of HomeServices of America, Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate, and a franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc.® Information not verified or guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with a Broker, this is not intended as a solicitation. Equal housing opportunity.

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MANHATTAN · 2019-04-11 · 2 NOTE FROM THE PRESIDENT New York City is the most vibrant and...

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