Managing Climate Risk in the Cloud

Frank Rijsberman, Ph.D.Program DirectorGoogle.org

Innovating for Good @ Google

• 1% equity and profit + employee time

• Themeso Access to Informationo Global health and povertyo Clean Energy

• Google.orgo Build new tools and platformso Inform discussion, advocate policies

“In the next decades climate-related disasters could cost US$300 billion per year”--CEPAL, 2002; Swiss Re, 2002.

Vulnerability is inability to cope with change

Climate Change Impacting People Today

Based on WHO study

Information Scarcity Increases Climate Change

Vulnerability

Flood Risk

Drought

InfectiousDisease

FloodsHumanitarianFood Security

Addressing Information Scarcity

• Acquiring information – satellites, sensor networks, cloud computing

• Disseminating information – mobile phones, social networks

• Enabling Action – monitoring systems, x-platform communication

Avoided DeforestationEarth Engine powered by Google

• Earth Engine powered by Google

Show video

Earth Engine 2870744_GEStalt_video_07_no black-yt30.mov

Earth Engine Demo, Powered by Google at COP15

Seeing the Forest through the Cloud

The technology platform will: Increase speed. Running these algorithms today on all of the Amazon, on currently available desktop computers, can take days or weeks. On Google infrastructure this could potentially be reduced to seconds. Lower cost and complexity. Google hosts all of the required data and software "in the cloud," saving users from having to manage large-scale storage and computation resources.Facilitate transparency and security. Users control access to their data and results, with the option to keep them private. Because the data, analysis and results reside online, they can also be easily shared and independently verified. Support climate change policy.  This technology could be used for forest monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in support of efforts such as REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation).

What would it take to create:

A global network of citizens who monitor Earth's resources and life supporting systems

Not only satellite imagery – community surveillance as well

Environment as Early Warningfor infectious disease

• Environment/climate-Sensitive diseases include:• Malaria Japanese encephalitis • Rift Valley Fever• West Nile Virus

•Yellow Fever•Meningitis•Dengue•Cholera

Jones et al. 2008

Mosquito Swarms Heavy Rains

 Livestock Cases

Human Cases

First Veterinary Intervention

Response

19 Oct

17 Nov

14 Jan

11 Dec

WHO DECLARED HUMAN INDEX CASE

Risk factor

GEIS EARLY WARNING OUT

Cases

30 Oct 30 Nov

EMPRES WARNING TO GOV’TS

First medical intervention

Climate and Environment Information - Provide Early Warning of DiseaseRift Valley Fever outbreak, Kenya, 2006/7, >300 people died

Open-source data collection tool kit Cooperative project with UWashington (Gaetano Borriello)Based on Android-G1/AppEngine Deployment in Kenya for 300 health workers in HIV-Aids (AMPATH) treatment and prevent program

Open Data Kithttp://code.google.com/p/open-data-kit

Xforms (JavaROSA)+Location, +Photos

Back-end Database

Initially targetingpublic health

Empower others tocustomize tools

Information Technology support forMekong Basin Disease Surveillance

Network

Enhancing Access to information to help identify vulnerabilities , provide early warning, and enable a rapid response

Weather Info for All• Put automated weather stations on GSM towers

• 19 stations East Africa by mid ’10; 500 thereafter

• Global Humanitarian Forum, WMO, Ericson, Zain, Earth Institute

• See video: YouTube: weather info for all

Weather report coverage

Reporting water outages: SMS feedback from consumers on service quality

experiment in Zanzibar

Reoptimization of Dam Reoptimization of Dam OperationsOperations

To release a flow pattern that more To release a flow pattern that more closely mimics the natural variability in closely mimics the natural variability in flows.flows.

By converting dams to “run-of-the-river” By converting dams to “run-of-the-river” operations to roperations to re-create controlled flood e-create controlled flood eventsevents

By reoperating the entire water By reoperating the entire water management system - not just the management system - not just the storage component.storage component.

To adapt to hydrologic perturbations To adapt to hydrologic perturbations associated with climate changeassociated with climate change

Akosombo DamAkosombo Dam•Completed in 1965

•Height = 134 meters

•Created Lake Volta, the largest reservoir in the world

•Power Output = 912 MW

Today, dams must be reoptimized for other benefits: Today, dams must be reoptimized for other benefits: environmental performance and livelihoods.environmental performance and livelihoods.

How to construct operational models to evaluate a range of How to construct operational models to evaluate a range of scenarios to generate environmental flows?scenarios to generate environmental flows?

How to relate flow patterns to dam releases?How to relate flow patterns to dam releases? How to deal with variable hydrology — How to deal with variable hydrology — including future climate including future climate

changechange How to make all releases power releasesHow to make all releases power releases How to deal with constraints and limitationsHow to deal with constraints and limitations                      i.      Capacity of release worksi.      Capacity of release works                      ii.      Power demandsii.      Power demands                    iii.      Transmission capacitiesiii.      Transmission capacities                      iv.      Navigation iv.      Navigation                           v. Effects on potential for lake perimeter agriculturev. Effects on potential for lake perimeter agriculture

Proposed GEF dam re-operation project – www.N-H-I.org

Google Crisis Response: use of imageryCyclone Nargis Hits Myanmar

Situation: Cyclone Nargis strikes Myanmar

Before

1 week

After

Google Map Maker for a cause…disaster relief

Show Video

Google Map Maker time lapse video Kottayam, Kerala

Example: Typhoon Ketsana, Philippines

Contains:• Map• Video news clips• Donation sites/charities• Google news

Ongoing:•Sourcing aerial imagery• Adding developing information

Data file with all the roads, POIs and businesses in Africa added in Google Map Maker

Intended for use by...• Non-profit entities• Government agencies• Individuals with non commercial intent

West Africa flooding, Sep 09

Typhoon Ketsana, Oct 09

UNOSAT– Mapping Flooded areas

Available soon: Airborne affordable versatile hi res imagery from a small plane

WB Development Indicators in Google Search

Most pressing constraints are not data or technology related but rather institutional, cultural, economic.

What to do with all this information?

Addressing information scarcity is one component of capacity to adapt or respond.

Building Institutional Bridges: Climate and Health Working Groups in

AfricaSummer Institute ‘ Jun 08Ethiopia CHWG Sep 2008

Madagascar CHWG Oct 08

Kenya CHWG Dec 08

International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Earth Institute

Social Networks

who is doing what, where?

Most adaptation will be learned

from what others are doing.

www.weADAPT.org. Prototype developed by BCAS, ICCAD, IIED, OSS, START, UCT and others.

Summary

• Climate adaptation increasingly at the core of development and poverty alleviation

• Information scarcity key challenge in managing climate risk

• Information technology can play an important role in addressing the information scarcity problem.

rijsberman@google.com

Thanks!