Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director,...
17
Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe Eurocommerce, Brussels, 28 May 2014
Transcript of Making sense of the 2014 European Parliament elections Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director,...
Making sense of the 2014
European Parliament electionsMichiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe
Eurocommerce, Brussels, 28 May 2014
2
Our final prediction
3
Provisional results2009 2014
4
Profit-loss accountGroup Net gain/loss
EPP 61
S&D 5
ALDE 19
Greens/EFA 5
ECR 11
GUE/NGL 7
EFD 7
5
Key characteristics
Turnout stabilised at 43% after continuous decline since 1979
Numbers shift from the centre to the extremes (especially on the right)
No fundamental change in left-right balance
No longer one single dominant political group
6
Group formation
7
Balance of power - EPP
FR, IT, ES downDE, PL , CZ upDE remains largest
8
Balance of power – S&D
CZ, GR, HU, PL downDE, IT, RO, UK upIT largest
9
Balance of power - ALDE
DE, UK down HR, CZ, DK, ET, FI, FR, GR, HU, LI, NL, SK, ES up ES largest
10
Key post-election steps
Nomination of Commission President Formation of EP political groups Election of EP political group leaders Election of EP President and V-Ps Election of Committee Chairs Election of Commission President Nomination of new Commissioners,
hearing, confirmation vote
11
Policy impact
Less support for strengthening EU and EP powers
No centre-left or centre-right majority, but attendance could have big impact
Probably no far right group, but lots of far right MEPs
Hemicycle arithmetic forces mainstream parties to work together
Majorities more volatile
12
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.6 -8.5EPP + S&D 61.4 54.7 -6.7
Old EP New EP Difference
EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 13.6 +5.2ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 20.6 +4.8(ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 27.6 +7.2
PRO-EU
ANTI-EU
Possible coalitions (%)
13
Centre-right
Centre-left
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.4 -8.2EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 46.9 -7.1
Old EP New EP Difference
S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 39.6 +2.0(S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 48.5 +0.1
Possible coalitions (%)
14
Economy
• Less support for austerity• More calls for public spending• Push for tax harmonisation?• More regulation of the financial
sector
Policy impact
15
Trade and internal market
• Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP
• Greater resistance to strengthening the internal market for services
Policy impact
16
Energy
•Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role• Shale gas and oil exploration – EP
majority likely positive• Support for pan-EU energy
infrastructure
Policy impact
Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director [email protected]
www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope/VoteWatchEurope
