Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 7 November 2013 Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean...

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 7 November 2013

Craig LewisExecutive DirectorClean Coalition650-796-2353 [email protected]

Hunters Point DG + IG ProjectGrid Modernization for a 21st Century Power System

Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now

2

Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors

Board of AdvisorsBoard of AdvisorsJeff Anderson

Co-founder and Former ED, Clean Economy Network

Josh BeckerGeneral Partner and Co-founder, New Cycle Capital

Pat BurtCEO, Palo Alto Tech Group;

Councilman & Former Mayor, City of Palo Alto

Jeff BrothersCEO, Sol Orchard

Jeffrey ByronVice Chairman National Board of Directors, Cleantech Open; Former Commissioner, CEC

Rick DeGoliaSenior Business Advisor, InVisM, Inc.

John GeesmanFormer Commissioner, CEC

Eric GimonIndependent Energy Expert

Patricia GlazaPrincipal, Arsenal Venture Partners

Mark Z. JacobsonDirector of the Atmosphere/Energy Program &

Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University

Dan KammenDirector of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley; Former Chief Technical

Specialist for RE & EE, World Bank

Fred KeeleyTreasurer, Santa Cruz County, and Former Speaker

pro Tempore of the California State Assembly

Felix KramerFounder, California Cars Initiative

Amory B. LovinsChairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain

Institute

L. Hunter LovinsPresident, Natural Capitalism Solutions

Ramamoorthy RameshFounding Director, DOE SunShot Initiative

Governor Bill RitterDirector, Colorado State University’s Center for the

New Energy Economy, and Former Colorado Governor

Terry TamminenFormer Secretary of the California EPA and Special

Advisor to CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger

Jim WeldonTechnology Executive

R. James WoolseyChairman, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Former Director of Central

Intelligence (1993-1995)

Kurt YeagerVice Chairman, Galvin Electricity Initiative; Former

CEO, Electric Power Research Institute

MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy

resilience

MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy

resilience


3

Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid


4

Plan for Renewables Everywhere within D-grid

Retail DGServes Onsite

Loads

Central Generation Serves Remote Loads

Distribution Grid

Transmission Grid

Project Size

Wholesale DGServes Local Loads

Behind the Meter


5

WDG Delivers Scale & Cost-Effectiveness Fast

Solar Markets: Germany vs California (RPS + CSI + other)

Germany has deployed 12 times more solar than California in the last decade despite California’s 70% better solar resource!!!

Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and German equivalents.

Cum

ulat

ive

MW

2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

CaliforniaGermany


6

German Solar Pricing Translates to 5 cents/kWh

Project Size Euros/kWh USD/kWh California Effective Rate $/kWh

Under 10 kW 0.145 0.1903 0.0762

10 kW to 40 kW 0.138 0.1805 0.0722

40.1 kW to 1 MW 0.123 0.161 0.0644

1.1 MW to 10 MW 0.101 0.1317 0.0527

Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is €1:$1.309California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource

Source: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index.php?id=92, 10 September 2013

Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar at only between 5 and 7 cents/kWh to California ratepayers


7

DG+IG Initiative = Proving Feasibility of High DG

Work with five utilities across the US to deploy a DG+IG demonstration project at each by yearend-2015

Prove viability of Distributed Generation (DG) providing at least 25% of total electric energy consumed within a single substation grid area

Integrate Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions to ensure that grid reliability is maintained or improved from original level

IG solutions include diversity and Energy Storage for sure, and potentially, advanced inverters, forecasting & curtailment, and/or Demand Response


8

Benefits of DG+IG and Community Microgrids

Power Quality, Reliability & Resilience benefitsIncreased customer satisfactionImproved equipment longevitySustained vital services in otherwise complete blackout scenariosAvoided transmission & central generation vulnerabilities

Economic benefitsSignificant private-sector investmentSubstantial local job creationFixed electricity prices for 20+ yearsLocalized energy spendingAvoided inefficiencies of central generation & transmission

Environmental benefitsAvoiding dirty power generation, including nasty peaker plants that are often sited in underserved communitiesUtilizing built-environments and disturbed lands for generation projectsPreserving pristine environments from transmission lines and other infrastructure


9

Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP) Background

• BHP has a long history of environmental degradation.

• Houses one third of San Francisco’s hazardous waste sites.

• Was site of California's dirtiest peaker power plant until community activism forced its closure in 2010.

• 20% of BHP children suffer from asthma, and other chronic illnesses, 4 times CA average

• BHP has one of the highest poverty rates in San Francisco, with 30% of families earning less that $10,000 per year, and a median household income of $29,640 annually, as compared to $65,000 for white San Franciscans and a $55,221 average citywide.

• An overwhelming 72% of the African Americans in BHP have incomes below the federal poverty level.

Sources: Hunters Point Family and Grid Alternatives.


10

Hunters Point Project Scope & Deliverables

Identify prospective sites and components for DG+IG solutions throughout Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP), including PV, biogas, wind, storage, demand response, and advanced inverters

Model and simulate existing grid characteristics

Model and simulate DG+IG scenarios that maintain or improve grid power quality, reliability, and resilience

Recommend the optimum DG+IG scenario that best balances system cost & performance considerations

Quantify the benefits of the recommended DG+IG scenario in terms of economics, environment, and grid efficiency & performance

Design streamlined procurement & interconnection procedures

Secure approvals for full DG+IG deployment

Deploy!!!


11

New Construction vs Retrofit Comparison

Hunters Point Substation serves Major Redevelopment Area & Continuing Urban Neighborhoods (about 40/60 split)


12

Hunters Point Project Goals

Get at least 25% of the electric energy consumed within the Hunters Point substation area (Bayview-Hunters Point) coming from local renewables

Deliver a proven model for maximizing local renewables under San Francisco’s 2020 goal to be 100% powered by renewables

Achieve about $250 million dollars of private investment in Bayview-Hunters Point with about a third going to local wages

Reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50M pounds

Serve as a model for clean local energy that can easily be scaled and replicated across the globe

Provide a compelling business case for Community Microgrids that inspires cities and communities everywhere to implement Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid (DG+IG) projects


13

Starting Point: BHP Total Load

Hunters Point Total Average Load: 328,217 MWh = 37.5 MW(ac)• Existing conventional: 236,520 MWh = 27 MW(ac)• Existing DG (PV+Biopower): 13,338 MWh = 1.5 MW(ac)• Planned for Redev Zone: 78,359 MWh = 8.9 MW(ac)

PG&E Average Load Calculation• kW average = kWHr / Hrs • kW average = kW peak x PG&E

Load Factor. DART has different LFs for each customer type.

• kW peak and load factors provided by PG&E

PG&E Load – Existing

Summer KVA Winter KVAFeeder KVA Lds fm LF KVA Lds fm LFSF P 1101 3,428 3,193 SF P 1102 4,383 5,062 SF P 1103 2,518 2,947 SF P 1104 325 451 SF P 1105 4,679 4,685 SF P 1106 1,836 1,769 SF P 1107 4,238 4,616 SF P 1108 2,167 2,849 SF P 1109 2,433 2,242

Totals: 26,008 27,815

NOTE: For all slides, average load is in MW (dc), total load is in MWh (ac) – except where noted; e.g. where average load represents conventional rather than

renewable resources.


14

Next: BHP DG Potential = 50MW New PV

Bayview/Hunters Point DG Potential: 95,194 MWh = 60.6 MW = 30% of Total Load• New PV: 52.1 MW• Existing DG: 8.5 MW (PV equivalent)

Type Avg. Load (MW)

Total Load(MWHr)

New PV: Commercial

11.0 17,333

New PV: Residential

18.0 28,275

New PV: Parking Lots

2.6 4,102

New PV: Redev Zone

20.5 32,146

Total New PV 52.1 MW 81,856

Existing PV Equiv. 8.5 13,338

Total DG Potential: 60.6 95,194


15

BHP DG Potential: Commercial

Potential PV: Commercial Rooftops

Highlights:• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 34

• Total PV-potential rooftop square feet = 1.4M• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 736K

• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 11 MW

Example: 180 Napolean St.• PV Sq. Ft = 47,600• System size = 714 kW

Hunters Point Rooftops - Commercial

AssumptionsWatts/sq. ft. 15

PV hrs./yr. 1570Participation Factor 50%

ResultsTotal Sq. Ft. 1,472,000

Total Sq. Ft. Participating 736,000 Total Watts Participating 11,040,000

Total PV in MW 11.0 Total PV in Annual MWhr 17,333

Average kW per site 649


16

BHP DG Potential: Parking Lots

Potential PV: Parking Lots

Highlights:• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 13

• Total PV-potential parking lot square feet = 348K• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 174K

• Total average generation, participating parking lots = 2.6 MW

Example: 1485 Bay Shore Blvd• PV Sq. Ft = 37,800• System size = 567 kW

Hunters Point Parking Lots


PV hrs./yr. 1,570 Participation Factor 50%

ResultsTotal Sq. Ft. 348,400

Total Sq. Ft Participating 174,200Total Watts Participating 2,613,000

Total PV in MW 2.6Total PV in Annaul MWh 4,102

Average kW per site 402


17

BHP DG Potential: Residential

Potential PV: Residential Rooftops

Highlights:• Total residential sites = 14,000

• Average PV-viable square feet per residence (from 50 sites) = 343• Total PV-potential residential square feet = 4.8M

• Total participating sq. ft. @ 25% = 1.2M• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 18 MW

Example: 50 average rooftops• Average PV Sq. Ft = 343• Average system size = 5 kW

Hunters Point Rooftops - Residential


PV hrs./yr. 1570Participation Factor 25%

ResultsTotal HH 14,000

Average PV-viable sq. ft. per HH 343 Total PV-viable Sq. Ft. 4,802,560

Total PV-viable Sq. Ft. Participating 1,200,640 Total PV in Watts 18,009,600

Total PV in MW 18.0 Total PV in Annual MWh 28,275

Average PV system size per HH, kW 5


18

BHP DG Potential: Redev Zone

Potential PV: Redev Zone

Highlights – total planned load of 78,359 MWh/yr:• Total planned rooftop square feet in HP = 4.2M

• Total rooftop square feet in HP = 2.73M• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 1.365M

• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 20.5 MW

Hunters Point Rooftops – Redev Zone


PV hrs./yr. 1570HP % of Redev Zone 65%Participation Factor 50%

ResultsTotal Planned Rooftop Sq. Ft. 4,200,000

Total Rooftop Sq. Ft. in HP Substation 2,730,000 Total PV-usable Sq. Ft. Participating 1,365,000

Total PV in Watts 20,475,000 Total PV in MW 20.5

Total PV in annual MWh 32,146


19

Benefits of 50 MW New DG in BHP

Source: NREL JEDI calculator. Based on average installed cost of $3.25/W(ac) before taxes & incentives using PG&E rates/region.

Economic$233M total regional economic output

1,560 Job Yearsnear-term regional employment

590 Job Yearsongoing regional employment

$85Mlocal wages in construction & installation

$6.75Mstate/local construction-related sales taxes

Energy$244Mlocal energy spend vs. imported over 20 years

$79.7Mavoided transmission costs over 20 years

Lower cost vs. natural gas14.9¢/kWh solar vs. $15.3¢/kWh CCNG LCOE

Environment82M lbs. annual reductions in GHG emissions

15M Gallons annual water savings

Photo courtesy of GRID Alternatives

~$250M in Private Investment Over 20 Years Delivers These Regional Benefits:


20

Peek of the Future at Hunters Point


21

Back-Up Slides

Back-Up Slides


22

Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization

1. 6AM: • no PV impact

2. Noon: • 20MW PV causes

overvoltage without DG+IG

3. Noon: • DG+IG stabilizes

voltage impact from 20MW PV


23

Advanced Inverters – Reactive Power Champion

P100%

Q 45.8%

S110%

REACTIVE (Q)

REAL (P)

100 kW solar PV AC power110 kVA inverter capacity0.9 power factor45.8 kVAr reactive power100 kW real power

Oversized inverter:• No reduction of PV real power• Draws up to 10 kW real power from

the grid• Provides reactive power 24/7/365

P: Real power (kW)Q: Reactive power (kVAr)S: Total power (kVA)


24

Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization

1. 6AM: • no PV impact

2. Noon: • 20MW PV causes

overvoltage without DG+IG

3. Noon: • DG+IG stabilizes

voltage impact from 20MW PV


25

Distributed Voltage Regulation – Location Matters

“The old adage is that reactive power does not travel well.”

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)

T&D lines absorb 8-20x more reactive power than real power.

Prevent Blackouts:When a transmission path is lost, remaining lines are heavily loaded and losses are higher.


26

Replacing SONGS with DG+IG

Huntington Beach 290 MVars

(minus line losses = 261 MVars)

vs

570 MW of local solar with advanced inverters, oversized by 10% set at 0.9 Power Factor = 261 MVArs

Local solar configured with advanced inverters alone can replace SONGS


27

Replace SONGS – Energy Storage Potential

Targets proposed by CPUC include 745 MW storage in Southern California


28

PV Potential of Top 25 Roofs in LA is Over 75 MW

RankPotential Size (kW)

Address Description

1 6,987 300 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage2 6,296 3880 N MISSION RD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage3 4,797 400 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage4 4,524 20525 NORDHOFF ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts5 4,402 2501 S ALAMEDA ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage6 3,771 4544 COLORADO BLVD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts7 3,629 1800 N MAIN ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage8 3,597 5500 CANOGA AVE Heavy Manufacturing9 3,596 20333 NORMANDIE AVE Food Processing Plants10 3,366 8500 BALBOA BLVD Heavy Manufacturing11 3,351 6600 TOPANGA CANYON BLVD Shopping Centers (Regional)12 3,313 401 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage13 3,052 9301 TAMPA AVE Shopping Centers (Regional)14 2,806 11428 SHERMAN WAY Warehousing, Distribution, Storage15 2,703 3820 UNION PACIFIC AVE Heavy Manufacturing16 2,693 1601 E OLYMPIC BLVD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage17 2,673 9120 MASON AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts18 2,672 12745 ARROYO ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts19 2,431 5525 W IMPERIAL HWY Heavy Manufacturing20 2,430 8201 WOODLEY AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts21 2,404 8900 DE SOTO AVE Heavy Manufacturing22 2,201 3410 N SAN FERNANDO RD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts23 2,171 12820 PIERCE ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage24 2,149 4024 RADFORD AVE Motion Picture, Radio & Television25 2,126 3020 E WASHINGTON BLVD Heavy Manufacturing

100+ GW of Built-Environment Solar Potential in California vs 60 GW of Peak Load


29

Renewables are Reliable

CountryPercent of electrical

generation in 2007 from non-hydro renewables

2007 SAIDI – outage duration (minutes)

2007 SAIFI – outage frequency (number of

outage events)

Denmark 29.4% 23 0.5

Germany 12% 24 0.5

United States 2.8% 240 1.5

Sources: Galvin Electricity Initiative, Electric Reliability: Problems, Progress and Policy Solutions, February 2011U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, 2011


30

DG+IG Core Solutions for Voltage Regulation

Solutions Benefits

Distributed Generation

• Provisions reactive power where it’s needed most for regulation• Avoids line losses• Reduces congestion of transmission and distribution lines

Advanced Inverters(paired with solar,

storage)

• Provisions distributed reactive power • Reacts automatically within fractions of a second (conventional

resources can take minutes to react)• Converts real power from the grid to reactive power 24/7/365• Oversized inverters can deliver reactive power without reducing DG

real power output• Ride-through voltage events, remain attached longer than

conventional spinning generators without harm• Modern inverters already have these advanced capabilities

Energy Storage(batteries, flywheel)

• Provisions both real and reactive power• Generally paired with advanced inverters


31

DG+IG Solutions for Balancing Power & Frequency

Solutions Benefits

Demand Response

• Automated demand response can address power imbalances within fractions of a second

• Reduces or shift load away from peak hours to free up other resources to provide real power

Energy Storage(batteries, flywheel)

• Supplies and absorbs power• Can reduce or shift load• Can react automatically within fractions of a second

Forecasting • Forecasting improvements will reduce unpredicted differences between scheduled supply and actual supply

Curtailment (proactive ramp control)

• Reduce output from intermittent generators for proactive ramp control to smooth out short term impulse


32

DG+IG Keeps Power in Balance

DR, ES shifts load

DR, ES shifts load

ES, Auto-DR, curtail for steep

ramp


33

DG+IG Projects Begin with Grid Modeling & Simulation


34

DG+IG Policy Innovations Required

Integrate Grid PlanningTransparent and public T&D planning processes Proactively evaluate DG+IG alternatives to new transmission investmentsNecessary to meet goals re: renewables, EVs, costs, local job creation, resilience

Implement Full Cost & Value AccountingInvestments should reflect the full spectrum of rate impacts, economic growth, health, safety, and environmental sustainabilityPrevent bias against DG+IG (e.g. hidden transmission costs)

Monetize DG+IG Grid Services Establishing markets that compensate at full value of grid services is fundamental to optimizing value for ratepayers

Prioritize DG+IG Development in High Value LocationsIdentify preferred locations on the grid based on transparent cost & value criteriaSet “Local Portfolio Standard” targets

Update Technical Standards: Update national technical standards (IEEE/ UL) to allow DG+IG to provide grid services to the fullest potential


35

Clean Coalition Overarching Objectives

From 2020 onward, at least 50% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from local sources.

Locally generated electricity does not travel over high voltage transmission lines to get from the location it is generated to the area it is consumed.

From 2020 onward, at least 80% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from renewable sources.

By 2020, policies and programs are well established for ensuring successful fulfillment of the other two objectives.

Policies reflect the full value of local renewable energy.

Programs prove the superiority of local energy systems in terms of economics, environment, and resilience.


36

Clean Coalition Activities in 2013

Policy: Implement policy innovations that remove barriers and open market opportunities for Distributed Generation (DG) and Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions

Key victories: SB 43, AB 327 and positioning of Advanced Inverter as key reactive power solution

Wholesale DG Programs: Establish and expand market opportunities for WDG across the country

Key victories: Georgia Power, Los Angeles, Long Island, Palo Alto, Fort Collins, and Sacramento

DG+IG: Stage five DG+IG demonstration projects for online by yearend-2015Key progress: Hunters Point (PG&E), Virgin Islands (WAPA), Palo Alto, and Los Angeles

Solar Developers Council: Open markets & remove barriers for membersKey progress: Multiple new WDG programs established and key policy victories

Communications: Increase impact and frequency of communicationsKey progress: Three key communications pieces per month plus heavy blogging, rapid response, and social media activities. New concepts like Advanced Inverters.


37

Hunters Point Scale: Cost Benefit

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

550 MW CCNG Annual Fixed and Variable Power Plant Costs$/MWh

Total Costs

Variable Costs

Fixed Costs

Year

$/M

Wh

Busbar wholesale cost from plant2015: $11.7 ¢/kWh2024: $17.1 ¢/kWh2034: $21.7 ¢/kWh

LCEO: $15.4 ¢/kWh

Hunters Point Solar LCOE is less than CCNGN

AT

UR

AL

GA

SS

OL

AR

500 kW Solar achieves lower LCOE than new natural gas generation – Hunters Point average expected commercial size = 650 kW

Source: CEC, 2010


38

Zero Net Energy is Key Driver for Smart Buildings


39

Adoption Cycle: Demos, Certs, Standards & Codes


40

Buildings of 2030 Must Fit with Cities of Future


41

Expect EV Chargers Everywhere

EVs provide the CLEAN Bridge between Energy, Buildings, Cities and Transportation


42

German Solar Capacity is Small WDG (Rooftops)

up to 10 kW 10 to 30 kW 30 to 100 kW 100 kW to 1 MW over 1 MW -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

German Solar PV Capacity Installed in 2010

MW

Source: Paul Gipe, March 2011

Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on built-environments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter)

22.5%

26%

23.25%

9.25%

19%


43

US has Far Better Solar Resource than Germany


44

WDG is Key Market Segment with Superior Value

The most cost-effective solar is large WDG, not central station due to significant hidden T&D costs

Distribution Grid T-Grid

PV Project size and type

100kW roof

500kW roof

1 MW roof

1 MW ground

5 MW ground

50 MW ground

Required PPA Rate

16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 7-9¢

T&D costs 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 2-4¢

Ratepayer cost per kWh

16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 9-13¢

Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, Nov2012; see full original analysis from Jul2011 at www.clean-coalition.org/studies

Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar

http://www.clean-coalition.org/studies


45

Deployment Volume Drives Learning Curves

Si learning curve

Solar pricing is reduced by 20% for every doubling of deployed volume

New technology learning curve

Efficiency innovation

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