Major challenges in the food system impacting ACP countries

Hans R HerrenPresident Millennium Institutewww.millennium-institute.org

Co-Chair IAASTD

Geopolitics of Food:implications for ACP countries Wednesday 2nd February 2011

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Brussels Policy Briefing n° 21

IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG)

The 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition:

• Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty• Improving Rural Livelihoods• Improving Nutrition and Human Health• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and

Economically Sustainable Development

…under the Challenges of:

• Climate Change• Population and Demand Growth• Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy

….to which agriculture itself is contributing negatively

The IAASTD

IAASTD….more info @ www.agassessment.org

Human condition need for quality and quantity of nutrition not met and increasing• One billion hungry & one billion obese

• 1.5 billion jobless people

• Humanity will grow to nearly 9 billion by 2050

• Rising affluence brings diet demands for more meat, dairy & fish

• Greatest population growth in the tropics where CC impact is expected to be worst, environment difficult or at limit

• Today’s total food production sufficient for 9 billion people, but:– Wrong place– Access issues (poverty – hunger nexus)– Post harvest losses >30%– Significant retail and home losses

Why a new paradigm? (social/economic)

Agriculture’s environmental impacts are substantial and are getting worse –Not sustainable

• High external input conventional farming has high GHG emissions (14%)

• Low input, traditional farming lower yields driving deforestation (18%)

• Both farming systems lack adequate CC stress resilience &• both are inefficient in their natural resource use• Water pollution by fertilizer/pesticide runoff and soil

erosion

Why a new paradigm? (environment)

Business as usual is not an option

Why a new paradigm? Move from NR exploitation to management

Business as usual is not an option

Why a new paradigm? Provide for food security and sovereignty2010 food risk map (Maplecroft)

TRENDS IN TRENDS IN AUSTRALIANAUSTRALIAN

AGRICULTURE 1950s – AGRICULTURE 1950s – 1970s1970s

ProductivityProductivity

ProductionProduction

crops

livestock

IndebtednessIndebtedness

Rural employmentRural employment

Terms of tradeTerms of trade

labor

farmers

Net farm incomeNet farm income

Environmental Environmental degradationdegradation

Role in the Role in the economyeconomy

Source Richard Gawden 2010)

Forest land

Natural crop yield per ha

Agriculture production

Soil quality

Effective crop yield per ha

Population

Harvested area

Water stress

GDP

Chemical fertilizer

Organic fertilizer

Agriculture capital

Energy demand

Fertilizer use

Water demand

R&D

Sustainable mgmt.

Crop losses

Oil price

Agriculture labor

What new paradigm? Interconnectedness

What new paradigm? Multifunctionality

Transition to sustainable / organic / ecological / resilient / equitable agriculture

SustainableUn-sustainable

Low

pro

ducti

vity

Hig

h p

rodu

ctivi

ty

Invest in agricultural R&D in ACP countries (IPG) that benefit small farmers / women especially (participatory)

• Soil sciences• Plant physiology and ecology• Plant health (Insect, diseases, etc / pre and post harvest)• Plant / animal breeding• Plant / animal diversity, orphan species• Agroforestry• Water management• Biotechnology (tissue culture, marker assisted breeding)• Farm mechanization• Aquaculture

How to transform / transition agriculture?

Public / private agricultural R&D spending year 2000

Total Agricultural Output 1970-2004 (1974 = 100)

Reducing Post Harvest Losses are as Important as Increasing Yields

• 30% of harvested crops are lost to spoilage and pest damage and never reach consumers

• Improving post harvest storage & handling capabilities for immediate benefits

• Supporting appropriate value added food processing in rural areas also reduces losses and creates jobs

• Parallel investment needed to improve market access infrastructures

How to transform / transition agriculture:

Ecological Agriculture provides the best prospects for sustainability –more of what works

• Uses organic nutrient and N-fixing crop rotations to restore soil fertility (Microorganism mediated nutrient mobilization)

• Organic matter & crop residue build soil carbon EA reduces use of fossil fuels & agrochemicals and GHG emissions

• EA sequesters carbon (neutral / positive impact on CC)

• EA improves yields by 70% vs traditional farming

How to transform / transition agriculture:

OrganicOrganic ConventionalConventional

What new paradigm? Organic agriculture

Organic bananas in the Dominican Republic

In 1995 –drought yearIn 1995 –drought year

What new paradigm? Push-Pull

Organic maize in Kenya

Appropriate scaled mechanization for small farmers and cooperatives

• Financing for farmers to buy mechanized ag equipment to improve labor productivity

• R&D for No Till equipment; and incentives for domestic marketing/tech support supply chain

• Local production of biofuels & power to enable use of mechanized systems

How to transform agriculture:

EA is knowledge intensive: need for human and social capital development

• Improve and expand extension services and farmer field schools to train and demonstrate EA practices and values

• Introduce capacity building for cooperatives to enable locally owned and operated input and output firms

• Increase higher education for implementation of EA• Agriculture is very localized = regional and local solutions

How to transform agriculture (Institution building)

Improving small farmer access to local, urban and foreign markets• Improving food safety• quality control (compliance with organic, fare trade, Global

Gap and other certification standards)

How to transform agriculture: (Trade and markets)

Essential policy Actions to stimulate transition to EA• Remove perverse subsidies (fossil fuels, commodity crops,

power, etc…)• Account for externalities (reward positive externalities)• Introduce support for transition to EA• Allow countries to implement trade policies that protect

local farmers

Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year 2011-2050 (green economy report UNEP/Millennium InstituteInvesting between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year 2011-2050 (green economy report UNEP/Millennium Institute

Agriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report –February 2011)

You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A Einstein

Thank you for your attention